Patrick Widens Lead

Posted on May 26, 2010 by billmanzi

Suffolk University’s latest poll of the Massachusetts Governor’s race confirms some of the trend lines apparent from the last Rasmussen survey, showing Governor Deval Patrick widening his lead over Charlie Baker and Tim Cahill. From the Suffolk press release:

In the poll of registered voters, 42 percent say they would vote for Patrick, compared to 29 percent for Baker and 14 percent for independent Tim Cahill. Green Party candidate Jill Stein gets 8 percent, while 7 percent were undecided. Of the three candidates whose numbers improved since a February 2010 Suffolk University/7News poll, Patrick’s increase of 9 points was higher than Baker’s (+4) and Stein’s (+5). Cahill dropped 9 points, likely due to a $1 million barrage of attack ads financed by the Republican Governor’s Association.

After Rasmussen it was apparent that the Republican Governor’s Association barrage against Tim Cahill was having an impact. Suffolk now confirms the big drop for Cahill, but also shows that as of today the main beneficiary of that drop has been Governor Patrick. Suffolk’s polling shows that 60% or better have never heard of, or have no opinion of, Charlie Baker. Baker had better look at that number closely, as Governor Patrick and some third party groups will be looking to define Baker to the electorate real soon. Another interesting number is the race amongst independents, where Baker leads Governor Patrick by a 35% to 26% margin. That is far below the number achieved within that demographic by Scott Brown, and is insufficient for a Baker victory. And it appears to me to be a number that will be difficult for Baker to grow with Tim Cahill in the race.

As for Cahill the trend lines now offer him choices that are very difficult. He should have, if he had adequate finances, been up on the air to counter the RGA assault. Even absent the assault he should be defining himself to the electorate early. Instead he has had to be largely silent while being negatively defined, and has added to his own misery with some of his comments on patronage relative to the Probation Department problems, with the Globe and Herald pouncing on his less than stellar remarks. The overall campaign strategy is now exposed as flawed, and without retooling that strategy and message Tim Cahill faces a long, tough summer.

Link to the Suffolk Press Release here.

Link to the Globe story on the Suffolk poll here.

Link to the Howie Carr article slamming Cahill for calling patronage routine here.

Posted in State News | Tagged , , , | 2 Comments

Drill Baby Drill- President Forms Commission on BP Oil Spill

Posted on May 22, 2010 by billmanzi

President Obama used his weekly talk to announce the formation of a commission to study the massive oil spill unleashed by BP. He announced that Republican Bill Reilly, a former EPA head, and Democrat Bob Graham, the former Governor of FLA, would head the commission. The President announced a series of inspections of offshore oil rigs, and a moratorium on new drilling until the 30 day safety review is complete. The ecological disaster is extensive, and there are many questions regarding the type of relationships federal regulators had with the people and companies they were charged with overseeing. For all those who have been totally dismissive of the potential for offshore oil drilling causing ecological damage this episode should be a wake up call. Unless you believe that environmental terrorists sabotaged the rig, as Rush Limbaugh has suggested.

Posted in National News | Tagged , | 1 Comment

Rand Paul on Defense

Posted on May 21, 2010 by billmanzi

Tea Party favorite Rand Paul was a huge winner in the Kentucky Republican Senate primary, trouncing the favored candidate of established Republicans by a wide margin. His victory has been heralded as a rebuke to the political class and a sign of Tea Party strength. But Paul is at heart a Libertarian Republican, and contained within the belief set of real libertarians are some views that tend to be outside the mainstream. His dad, Texas Congressman Ron Paul, has similar beliefs and has gotten into some measure of difficulty even with Republicans over some of those beliefs. It did not take the Democrats long to begin picking at some of the more “controversial” of those positions, including Paul’s libertarian view that private business owners should be free to discriminate as to who they serve. Paul will be hard pressed to talk about his real views because so many different voters, in particular the elderly, would be hurt by his governing philosophy. The Democrats will spend plenty to remind voters of some of those positions. Read the Washington Post story on Paul taking a step back on some positions here. Read the Michael Gerson column warning of the danger to Republicans of the Libertarian strain of their party here. And of course the Dems waste no time in going on the attack. The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee was up with an internet ad pretty quickly.

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Toomey v Sestak in PA

Posted on May 20, 2010 by billmanzi

Yes Joe Sestak did indeed bump Arlen Specter out in PA, which leads to a very interesting final campaign in November, with Republican Pat Toomey waiting in the wings for Sestak. This should be an interesting race, with the candidates presenting starkly different outlooks on the role of government. Toomey is a Club for Growth Republican, with Sestak being a left of center Democrat. The latest Quinnipiac poll shows the men locked in a very tight struggle, with a slight edge to Toomey. Today’s Washington Post details the beginning outlines of what promises to be a great race. A loss by Sestak will not bode well for President Obama’s chances of retaing PA in his re-election bid in 2012. The President has experienced plummeting poll numbers in PA. Look for both parties to invest heavily here.

http://vimeo.com/moogaloop.swf?clip_id=11843210&server=vimeo.com&show_title=1&show_byline=1&show_portrait=0&color=&fullscreen=1

The Clear Choice from Pat Toomey on Vimeo.

Posted in National News | Tagged | 3 Comments

Whither Arlen Specter?

Posted on May 18, 2010 by billmanzi

PA incumbent Senator Arlen Specter, considered a shoo in for the Democratic nomination for Senate just a short time ago, is on the ropes and fighting for political survival today, with Democratic Rep. Joe Sestak appearing to take the lead in the latest round of polling. That primary election is today. Specter, who converted to the Democratic Party when it appeared obvious that he would be ousted in a Republican primary, is now facing the same fate on the Democratic side, despite support from President Obama, Governor Ed Rendall, and much of the institutional party apparatus. But he has been stung by a very effective campaign by Sestak, who has painted Specter as an opportunist simply seeking to protect his own job. Reminding PA dems of the past support given by Specter to conservative Supreme Court nominees, to the war in Iraq, and to President George W. Bush has not helped Specter with his new “friends” in the Democratic Party. Specter is a wily veteran, and he has always managed to overcome difficult odds, but the gig may be up today for the eighty year old Specter. Recent polling also shows Sestak as the stronger candidate against presumptive Republican nominee Pat Toomey. Maybe Democratic voters will do to Specter what the “Club for Growth” never could while he was a Republican. Beat him!

Rasmussen on the PA Senate race.

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Baker Launches "Had Enough" Tour

Posted on May 18, 2010 by billmanzi

Republican Charlie Baker has launched the “had enough” tour, unveiling a new campaign slogan and internet ad targeting Governor Patrick and Treasurer Tim Cahill. With criticism of his campaign beginning to ramp up Baker does apparently need to shake things up a bit. Time will tell whether this tactic will work, but I think Baker has not yet “introduced” himself to the voters, and so I tend to agree with the Outraged Liberal who cites Baker’s lack of voter definition as something that needed to be addressed before he went negative. The Globe has a piece on Baker’s new theme, with the Governor calling on Baker to stop the negativity. But Baker’s team pointed to the negative ads run in 2006 against Kerry Healey by the Patriot Majority, with Governor Patrick at first denying those ads were negative, but later backtracking.

But yesterday the governor asserted that the group that ran the ads, the Patriot Majority Fund, “did not run negative attack ads.’’ Asked to explain Patrick’s characterization, his campaign later issued a statement acknowledging that the ads were negative.

“In 2006, a negative preprimary ad was run by a third party and was denounced by the governor and his campaign,’’ the statement said. “That is exactly what the governor was calling on Charles Baker to do today.’’

A lot more give and take to come, but Charlie Baker’s team is hearing the criticism and reading the polling data. They know they need to change gears, but I am not sure they have the right formula yet in this three man race.

Posted in State News | Tagged , , | 3 Comments

RGA Continues to Pound Cahill

Posted on May 16, 2010 by billmanzi

The RGA assault on Tim Cahill continues unabated, and the latest Rasmussen poll shows it is having some impact. Today’s Herald has some commentary on the Cahill situation, with Howie Carr telling Cahill to “man up” or get out. Carr seems to have homed in on the problem pretty well. Cahill has to suffer the blows now, because he cannot raise enough money to respond or to even define himself to the electorate. And a second Herald column by Atty. John Sivolella continues this line, with the obvious flaws in Cahill’s strategy now beginning to become apparent. Cahill is conserving cash now to make sure he will have the resources to compete coming down the stretch, but by then it may be too late. A difficult quandary for Tim and for independents in general. The cash simply dries up. And the RGA has plenty more to spend, along with Democratic interest groups as well. A difficult road ahead for Tim.

http://vimeo.com/moogaloop.swf?clip_id=11445058&server=vimeo.com&show_title=0&show_byline=0&show_portrait=0&color=FF0000&fullscreen=1

Tim Cahill: I Wasn’t Invited from Republican Governors Association on Vimeo.

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The President on Financial Reform

Posted on May 15, 2010 by billmanzi

The President continues the drumbeat on financial reform, talking about the benefits of reform, specifically Main Street benefits. The President knows that this is a political winner, and I think the Republicans know it as well. I would expect the President to keep up the pressure until he gets a bill out of the Senate.

Posted in National News | Tagged , | 1 Comment

Negative Ads Hurting Cahill?

Posted on May 12, 2010 by billmanzi

A new Rasmussen survey shows Governor Patrick widening his lead over his two main opponents, with independent Tim Cahill falling badly into third place. From Rasmussen:

Massachusetts Governor Deval Patrick has gained ground over the past month and now earns 45% of the vote in his bid for reelection against Republican Charlie Baker and independent Tim Cahill. That’s a 10-point jump from a month ago and the Democratic incumbent’s best showing in surveys stretching back to June of last year.
A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of likely voters in the state finds Baker with 31% support and Cahill earning just 14% in a three-way contest with Patrick. Ten percent (10%) remain undecided.

Based on Rasmussen it appears that the heavy buy by the Republican Governor’s Association is beginning to have an impact on the Cahill candidacy. But it also shows that the Governor appears to be benefiting from the mud-fight between Baker and Cahill, with his best poll results in some time. You can be assured that the RGA and other outside groups will soon turn their attention (and ad money) to Governor Patrick. The Governor’s team has begun laying the groundwork for response to the expected assault by the Republicans.

A number to watch is the survey results for independents. In this survey Baker leads in that group with 36%, to Governor Patrick’s 28%, while Cahill has 21%. That is a big turn around, and is a favorable sign for Baker. In the last survey (not Rasmussen) Cahill led in that category. It is really unlikely that Baker can win this race without a significant lead with independents. It appears he has at least turned the corner in that category.

Cahill continues to take heavy criticism for refusing to identify areas of the budget that he would cut that match his desire to cut state revenues. The latest volley comes from Scott Lehigh over at the Globe, who called Cahill’s campaign tactic “election year cotton candy”. Ouch! Read Rasmussen here.

Posted in State News | Tagged | 1 Comment

Breanah O’Handley Wins May Soar Award

Posted on May 11, 2010 by billmanzi

Congratulations to Breanah, the May SOAR award winner.

Reason(s) for Recognition:

Breanah is a young woman who has matured greatly from her freshman year. She is a model student, actively involved in all her academic and inclusion classes. Breanah is dedicated to her family, and an individual who is sensitive, caring and friendly. Breanah is a student who excelled within the Graduated Curriculum Program (GCP) and transitioned to all inclusive classes by her senior year. Over the course of the last few years, Breanah wanted to challenge herself academically and took chances and registered for one Inclusion class, increasing these classes by her senior year, which in turn, has become successful for her. She was not only able to maintain consistency in obtaining good grades in all her academic inclusion classes but also past the state mandated MCAS test and will be graduating with her class with honors.. Breanah is a model student for her peers to emulate and is respected by her teachers. Breanah’s character resembles one that exemplifies beautiful values. She is honest, trust worthy, protective of others, thoughtful, kind, considerate and passionate about life. Breanah also demonstrates a diligent work ethic, has a great sense of humor and is resilient in getting tasks accomplished accurately. Breanah was currently involved in the Best Buddies Program. It is a program that helps nurture and foster friendships within the students of the special education and general population of Methuen High School. In her sophomore year, Breanah has had the elite position of The “Best Buddies” Director. She was responsible to communicate with the buddies and the peer buddies and organize handouts to be given and received. In the classroom, Breanah is a leader and an active participant in lessons… She is relentless in her commitment to strive to improve her skills and abilities.
Breanah is conscientious and a responsible family member who seeks to help her family. Breanah has been challenged with obstacles in her life however; she rises up to any occasion to overcome these obstacles as opposed to quitting when situations become tough and overwhelming. She is able to learn from these challenges and is consequently able to assimilate lessons into her own personal experiences. Breanah has a great way of putting things into proper perspective over time and does not allow herself to dwell in areas that can bring her down.
Finally, Breanah welcomes friendships from individuals, regardless of their race or ethnic background. She does not harbor judgment on other individuals. Breanah has a gift to see the hearts of others and embraces them with openness and acceptance. She works hard to see goodness in people. She is an individual who gives of herself to others. What is respectful in this process is her ability to accomplish this with a high degree of dignity and with grace. In closing, Breanah brightens the room whenever she walks into it. She has a smile that is contagious. Her positive attitude, personal character and genuine goodness are virtues and qualities that make this young woman stand out in a crowd.

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