My 2020 Electoral Map

I have attached my electoral map prediction(s) for tomorrow, election day. No halfway measures on these predictions. My map will not have any shades, just red or blue. The time for predictions with shading is over.
A few comments:
I am torn on several states that are very close, including PA, AZ, FLA, NC, and Georgia. Of those 5 I have given 4 to Trump. (Gritting my teeth on PA, a very tight state that Biden has a great chance to win.) I look at Arizona and I am gritting my teeth there as well, as I believe that Biden has a solid chance to win that state as well. I hear all the chatter on Texas, but the history there just does not allow me to change that to the Democratic column, although that day is getting closer.

I have picked Biden to win Georgia, which also cuts against history, but I believe that in this cycle, with these candidates, Biden can get a close win there. I have left the Maine Second Congressional District with Trump, worth 1 electoral vote, but I have switched Nebraska’s Second Congressional District, worth 1 electoral vote, to Biden. If Biden wins either PA or FLA then I think it is safe to say the door is closed to a Trump win. Both the Maine and Nebraska Second Congressional single votes could become vitally important under some conditions
My map would give the win to Trump if he flips Georgia to red, but if he wins Georgia and Biden wins PA then Biden will win the presidency.

The swing states have tightened, and it looks to me like Trump must run the table in order to win re-election. He ran the table in 2016, so a Trump win is still possible.

My last comment is that on the national popular vote I expect Biden to win that by a significantly higher amount than Hillary Clinton did in 2016.

Biden wins with between 275 and 295 electoral votes.


Click the map to create your own at 270toWin.com
Posted in Electoral Map | Tagged | Leave a comment

A Review of Bad Blood: Secrets and Lies in a Silicon Valley Startup

Bad Blood: Secrets and Lies in a Silicon Valley StartupBad Blood: Secrets and Lies in a Silicon Valley Startup by John Carreyrou
My rating: 5 of 5 stars

Bad Blood: Secrets and Lies in a Silicon Valley Startup is a must read that details the meteoric rise and crash and burn descent of a company called Theranos, and its principal, Elizabeth Holmes. The book was written by Wall Street Journal reporter John Carreyrou, who wrote a series of stories in the Journal that exposed the fraud, and brought Holmes and Theranos down. He gives us an up-close look at how Theranos skyrocketed to a market value of $10 billion through deception, but the story is so much more than your run of the mill business fraud case .

Theranos was a medical device company that promised an amazing array of medical diagnosis from a small sample of blood, using a Theranos machine. Elizabeth Holmes had modeled herself after Steve Jobs, to the point that she was wearing his style of clothing. Holmes got out there and sold the potential technology to anyone that would listen, drawing large capital infusions and attracting A-List people to her Board of Directors. The Board included Henry Kissinger, George Schultz, William Perry, Sam Nunn, and even General James Mattis. The problem was that the technology did not work, and Holmes knew it did not work. Despite that knowledge her and her CEO struck a major deal to deploy the technology in Walgreen stores. They would actually take the blood samples and analyze them with commercial blood analyzers made by other companies. She used that technique with investors, and in handling the volume of analysis required by the Walgreens contract.

How was she able to continue the fraud in the manner that she did? That is a fascinating question, and the answer does not reflect well on American business practices, or on the “elite” reaction to allegations of fraud. The people working for Theranos, especially the technical folks, understood that there were major issues with the technology. When they spoke up they were run out of the company. One of the employees was the grandson of George Schultz, who reported the suspicions he had about the technology to his grandfather. Instead of a receptive audience Tyler Schultz was given the cold shoulder by his grandfather, who accepted the word of Elizabeth Holmes that his grandson was in error, and just a disgruntled employee. This type of thing happened frequently before the sham was exposed, with Holmes exerting her influence, and deploying a strong personality to beat back the “doubters.” She also wielded super-lawyer David Boies, who represented the company, to launch legal assaults on those “doubters” that questioned the technology. The author himself was subjected to a pretty strong legal assault by Boies, causing the brass at the WSJ to want to proceed with caution. Boies is not a man to trifle with, and Holmes used him expertly to cast doubt on the doubters.

This effort manages to mix all of that into a great book that weaves the story together. It is almost unbelievable that it went on so long and ensnared so many people. In his review Bill Gates, who highly recommended the book, called some of the details shared by the author “insane.” In the end it all would have come crashing down at some point but Carreyrou, and those that helped him, deserve a lot of credit for digging into the story, fighting off the real heat that came down, and finally exposing the massive fraud that Theranos became. Elizabeth Holmes is a fascinating story. Without question she had a brilliance to her, and her ability to sell was truly extraordinary. But these talents ended up being used in a way that brought her, in the end, to a massive personal and professional disaster. She is now a defendant, charged with multiple crimes that could bring serious jail time. This book brings us that incredible story, and comes highly recommended.

View all my reviews

A look at the pre-discovery publicity that Elizabeth Holmes received from just about every corner of the media world.

Posted in Books | Tagged , , , | Leave a comment

A review of “The Splendid and the Vile”

The Splendid and the Vile: A Saga of Churchill, Family, and Defiance During the BlitzThe Splendid and the Vile: A Saga of Churchill, Family, and Defiance During the Blitz by Erik Larson
My rating: 5 of 5 stars

What an outstanding book Erik Larson has delivered. Could another WWII book bring anything new or interesting? Larson does both with this look at the first year of Churchill’s premiership, showing us in great detail how close to victory Hitler had come, and how the steely resolve of Churchill held things together in the face of unrelenting bad news, and a fierce German bombing campaign against Britain. Larson gives us a look at not just the military, but some of the personal, with some of the Churchill family “issues” covered fairly.

There is no question that Churchill is still revered today, but I do believe that how close Britain was to defeat, as the country stood alone against what appeared to be an unbeatable German military colossus, tends to be forgotten as the years go by. We get to see the devastation of the German air blitz on Britain and London, and how Churchill both coped with, and offered inspiration, in the face of continuing bad news. As Britain stood alone against the onslaught it appeared very likely that the Germans would attempt an invasion, and that potential added to the immense burden on Churchill.

The book gives us a look at Goebbels (the Vile), through his diary, showing him to be both perplexed and outraged by Churchill’s refusal to enter into peace talks with Germany. The Germans, including Hitler, never could settle on a way to deal with the British beyond the bombing campaign. Larson looks at the role of Hermann Goering, the Luftwaffe chief. Goring’s fundamental incompetence, and his reliance on cranks, especially in the intelligence field, was a key factor in the eventual British victory. Much of the German side material has been covered elsewhere, but it is fascinating in the context given by Larson.

Of course Churchill, for all his greatness, could not have won the war alone. We get to look at key members of the Churchill team, including Lord Beaverbrook, a fascinating figure. Churchill recognized that aircraft production would be something that would be critical to keeping Britain in the war, and he designated Beaverbrook as his head of Aircraft Production, a portfolio Churchill created. Beaverbrook was not a “team player” in a bureaucratic sense, but he drove his mission with zeal, ensuring that the British could replace the losses incurred in the Battle of Britain, and stay in the fight. Beaverbrook was a prima donna, but Churchill tolerated the constant threats of resignation, and squeezed the most out of a talented yet eccentric personality. It is, in my view, one of the key elements of Churchill’s greatness. He not only inspired his citizens, but he motivated his team in ways that drove the British forward when the chance of victory seemed non-existent.

Of course we see how much importance Churchill placed on the United States, and how he worked the Roosevelt angle as hard as he could. The U.S. was not quite ready to join the fight, but Churchill was relentless in his pursuit of Roosevelt, recognizing immediately that victory would likely be impossible without the entry of the military and industrial strength of America. Although he did not always meet success in his early endeavors with FDR Churchill had the political foresight to see how the war would play out, and acted accordingly.

The strength in the face of overwhelming odds, the description of the carnage brought on by the German air attacks and the Churchill response, and a close look at Churchill’s family and political circle make this book, for me, an outstanding effort, and well worth a read.

View all my reviews

Posted in Books | Tagged | 1 Comment

Seabrook Capital Spending 8 Year Review

With preparations ongoing for the production of the new Seabrook Capital Plan I have prepared the 8 year review of Seabrook capital spending, which is attached below, with the corresponding tabs. This review shows us where our capital spending has gone, both by department, and by function. Seabrook capital spending has been financed with capital bonds, fund balance, and on a pay/go system through the budget. Importantly both the Budget Committee and the Board of Selectmen have approved the creation of capital reserve accounts, which will help to smooth our capital budgets annually.

Seabrook CIP Spending Eight Year Review 2020

Tabs 2020

Posted in Seabrook | Tagged | Leave a comment

Seabrook Parks and Playgrounds Reopening Phase 2

The Governor’s re-opening task force has issued new guidance on parks and youth sports, which will now allow competitive games to proceed. This guidance has been adopted by the Seabrook Board of Selectmen, and the initial policy, put forward by the Town of Seabrook in conjunction with the initial parks reopening on June 6, has been amended to reflect the new guidance. The amended Seabrook policy, as well as the new guidance from the Governor’s task force, are attached below. In order to schedule games or for any inquiries on the new policy please contact DPW or Recreation.

Seabrook Parks Reopening Policy Phase 2

guidance-amateur-youth-sports phase 2

Posted in Seabrook | Tagged | Leave a comment

Seabrook Parks and Playgrounds Reopen June 6

The Seabrook Board of Selectmen voted to adopt the attached below Parks Reopening Policy, which will reopen Seabrook Parks and Playgrounds on June 6. This reopening of parks and playgrounds is one with restrictions, as proper social distancing must be maintained, and competitive games are still prohibited. The guidance offered by the State of N.H. has been incorporated into the Seabrook policy, and is attached below. To get a copy of the required waiver forms please contact Recreation, and to schedule a practice please contact DPW.

Seabrook Parks Reopening Policy

guidance-amateur-youth-sports

Posted in Seabrook | Tagged | Leave a comment

Seabrook Town Hall Reopens to Public on June 1

Seabrook Town Hall will reopen to the public on June 1, with restrictions. Town Hall will be opened to the public Monday June 1, Wednesday June 3, and Thursday June 4. Town Hall will be available for transactions Tuesday and Friday in the current manner, utilizing the drop box and appointments. There will be an employee in the lobby to direct the public, and ensure that we do not go over capacity. Seabrook has installed Plexiglas barriers at our service windows, and we have installed a new drop box that can be accessed without leaving your car. That Dropbox is secure, but we will not accept cash via the box. The full reopening protocols are below. If you have any questions please call Town Hall at 603-474-3311 or email wmanzi@seabrooknh.org

Town Hall and Departments Reopening Protocols

Posted in Seabrook | Tagged | Leave a comment

Seabrook Beach Reopens on June 1.

The Seabrook Board of Selectmen voted yesterday, May 28, 2020, to reopen Seabrook Beach on June 1, 2020. The Board took the initial reopening plan and amended it at that meeting. That plan is attached below. The parking regulations remain the same as in the prior plan.

Seabrook Beach Reopening Amended
Posted in Seabrook | Tagged | Leave a comment

The N.H. Regional Beach Reopening Plan

The Town of Seabrook, along with the towns of Hampton, Rye, New Castle, and North Hampton, have agreed to a set of beach reopening protocols that were submitted to the Governor’s Reopening Task Force yesterday. The Task Force received this document on May 21, 2020 and approved it for submission to Governor Sununu for consideration. I would like to thank Senator Tom Sherman as well as the management teams from all the communities for all of the work in building this consensus, as well as Tim Roache from the Rockingham Planning Commission. Our thanks to the Governor’s Office and the Reopening Task Force for all of their hard work on the many difficult issues they are faced with.

It is important to note that this document does not contain any reference to, or support of, the Hampton Beach Reopening Plan call for the closing of Ocean Blvd. in Hampton. The Town of Seabrook’s Board of Selectmen continue to oppose that aspect of the Hampton Plan, and have submitted a letter of opposition to it.

The plan submitted yesterday is attached below.

Regional Beach Plan 5-21-20 Final Draft

Posted in Seabrook | Tagged , | Leave a comment

The Seabrook Beach Re-Opening Plan

The Board of Selectmen have outlined the policies that will govern Seabrook Beach upon re-opening. While the plan contains the details there are some issues that require clarification.
1. Seabrook Beach is governed by the Governor’s Emergency Orders.
2. The phase one reopening plan will commence upon a modification of the Governor’s orders, which can only be done by the Governor.
3. The policy goal of the Board, in phase one, of “resident only” usage of the Beach, shall be driven by parking restrictions. There will be no beach sand passes, or ID checks.
4. Parking placards will be suspended for the duration of the 2020 season.
5. Parking on beach streets shall be resident only (resident sticker required)
6. The Board has approved the “on the sand” restrictions outlined in the plan. On the sand restrictions shall be promulgated by the Governor. We have sent the “on the sand” recommendations in the plan to the Governor’s Reopening Task Force.

The full plan is below.

Seabrook Beach Reopening

Posted in Seabrook | Tagged | Leave a comment