A new Rasmussen survey shows Governor Patrick widening his lead over his two main opponents, with independent Tim Cahill falling badly into third place. From Rasmussen:
Massachusetts Governor Deval Patrick has gained ground over the past month and now earns 45% of the vote in his bid for reelection against Republican Charlie Baker and independent Tim Cahill. That’s a 10-point jump from a month ago and the Democratic incumbent’s best showing in surveys stretching back to June of last year.
A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of likely voters in the state finds Baker with 31% support and Cahill earning just 14% in a three-way contest with Patrick. Ten percent (10%) remain undecided.
Based on Rasmussen it appears that the heavy buy by the Republican Governor’s Association is beginning to have an impact on the Cahill candidacy. But it also shows that the Governor appears to be benefiting from the mud-fight between Baker and Cahill, with his best poll results in some time. You can be assured that the RGA and other outside groups will soon turn their attention (and ad money) to Governor Patrick. The Governor’s team has begun laying the groundwork for response to the expected assault by the Republicans.
A number to watch is the survey results for independents. In this survey Baker leads in that group with 36%, to Governor Patrick’s 28%, while Cahill has 21%. That is a big turn around, and is a favorable sign for Baker. In the last survey (not Rasmussen) Cahill led in that category. It is really unlikely that Baker can win this race without a significant lead with independents. It appears he has at least turned the corner in that category.
Cahill continues to take heavy criticism for refusing to identify areas of the budget that he would cut that match his desire to cut state revenues. The latest volley comes from Scott Lehigh over at the Globe, who called Cahill’s campaign tactic “election year cotton candy”. Ouch! Read Rasmussen here.