Lynch Poised for Victory in New Hampshire

Posted on October 30, 2010 by billmanzi

New Hampshire Governor John Lynch appears poised to beat back a formidable challenge by Republican John Stephen. Lynch is a popular Governor who has traditionally won re-election by wide margins. In this cycle of difficulty for incumbents and for Democrats Lynch will likely have a much smaller margin of victory than he is used to, but a victory nonetheless. The latest Public Policy survey has Lynch with a nine point advantage, with some mighty intriguing numbers for a Democrat. In a year where independents are fleeing the Democratic brand Lynch is ahead by 16 points with that group. Wow. Maybe some National Democratic leaders ought to be talking to this guy. How does he lead with independents when just about every Dem in the country is getting whipped in that demographic? Lynch also is commanding 22% of Republican voters. Wow again. And those numbers are even more impressive when considered with the impending big win of Republican Kelly Ayotte in the open Senate seat race there. And Lynch earned the endorsement of the Eagle Tribune editorial board as well.

From the Public Opinion press release on the survey:

Meanwhile in the Governor’s race it appears John Lynch will get reelected, but not by nearly the kind of gaudy margin he has become accustomed to. For instance he’s winning independents 56-40, an unusual feat for a Democrat this year. But that’s nothing compared to the 79-19 advantage exit polls showed for him with them in 2008. And the 22% of Republicans he’s winning is an unusual amount of crossover support for any candidate this year, but it’s less than the 31% of them he got the last time around. Nevertheless barring a major shift in the final few days of the campaign he should
survive for another term.

John Stephen is toast.

Read the Herald story on a contentious debate between the candidates here.

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Paleologos on Braude

Posted on October 30, 2010 by billmanzi

Two new polls have come out (Massachusetts Governor) on the heels of the Suffolk Poll, with Rasmussen reporting that the race has tightened to a two point Deval Patrick lead. (Patrick 46%, Baker 44%, Cahill 6%). The State House News Service survey has Patrick leading by a 40% to 37% margin, with Tim Cahill at 9%. Rasmussen is within the margin of error with Suffolk, with both having the Governor at 46%. And the trendlines are very similar over at the State House News survey:

Buoyed by a huge gender gap in which women strongly support him while men support his opponent, Governor Deval Patrick clings to a slim 3-percentage-point edge less than a week before the election. The good news for Patrick is that, among voters who say they will definitely vote next Tuesday, Patrick’s edge widens to 4-percentage-points. The bad news for Patrick is that independent (unenrolled) voters support opponent Charlie Baker by 44%-30%, so the ability of the Patrick campaign to turn out enough Democrats to offset Baker’s advantage among independents and Republicans will be key on election day.

That gender gap, along with Baker’s insufficient lead with independents, leaves me in the same place I was after the Suffolk poll. This race is now in the grasp of the Governor. The attached clip has Paleologos discussing the differences between the Suffolk results and Rasmussen and SHNS.

http://www.necn.com/common/CSN/necn/NECNembedplayer.swf

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Third Party Redux

Posted on October 29, 2010 by billmanzi

There seems to be some similarities between the Massachusetts Governor’s race and the Florida Senate race, with both Charlie’s struggling mightily to get out a third candidate that appears to be blocking any chance of victory for them. The Florida Senate race has been roiled by a Politico story that says that Bill Clinton traveled to Florida to ask Kendrick Meek to withdraw from the race and support Governor Charlie Crist. The report also says that Meek agreed to withdraw, and that an endorsement rally was planned where Meek was scheduled to endorse Crist. Meek gave the folks at Morning Joe a tortured response to the question of whether the conversation about dropping out had occurred. The Clinton camp seemed to confirm that such conversations did in fact occur. It is a wee bit of a mess that might not have Paul Loscocco, but has a former President of the United States. And Charlie Crist is pouring as much gasoline on this as he can, hoping to totally marginalize Kendrick Meek.

In looking at the polling data I guess Crist has little to lose. The latest Mason-Dixon poll has Marco Rubio ahead by 17 points over Crist and 24 points over Meek. Rubio can sit back and enjoy Crist and Meek ripping each other to shreds. This race is over, and Republican Marco Rubio will be Florida’s next Senator. I have pointed out the senate races that have been given away by the Republicans (Delaware, maybe Nevada, and likely Alaska) but this is one given away by the Democrats. Meek and Crist are toast.

The Miami Herald story.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/32545640

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Almost a Wrap

Posted on October 29, 2010 by billmanzi

Suffolk University and pollster David Paleologos unveiled their last full poll of the Massachusetts election season yesterday, showing Governor Deval Patrick with a 7 point lead over Charlie Baker. The Governor seems to have strengthened his grip on a lead that he has never given up. Some interesting tidbits from the data.

1) The Governor holds a commanding lead amongst women. Charlie Baker hold a good sized lead amongst men. But Patrick has widened this gap considerably. Baker’s decision to appear with Jeff Perry has to be considered a negative for him. Another sign of a poorly thought out strategic decision by the Baker folks.

2) Suffolk has the Baker lead amongst independents shrinking from 16% to 11%. Baker leads Patrick by 45% to 34%, with Cahill at 13%. For me this is the KEY number, and has been all along. Scott Brown won by over 30% in this category, and I do not see a road to victory for Baker without that type of a margin in this group. And Baker continues to be hamstrung by Cahill here, as that 13% Cahill is taking down would arguably largely drift to Baker under different circumstances (yes speculation). Baker’s weakening here could be as a result of the ongoing fiasco with Cahill, as well as some unenrolled discomfort with the Perry situation. The election has been lost by Baker right in this group. Disagree? Unenrolled voters disapprove of the Governor’s job performance by a 52% to 35% margin. 61% of those voters think Massachusetts is “on the wrong track”. Should Baker be up in that group by more than 11%? You betcha.

3) The “Likeable” factor. Who has the best “temperament” to be Governor? Governor Patrick skunks Baker in this category by a 46% to 22% margin. Why? Because his demeanor and approach has been by far more connecting with voters. Deval Patrick has taken plenty of heat during his tenure as Governor, but I maintain that he is as good in close quarters with voters as any politician I have ever seen. What is the “secret weapon” of the Deval Patrick for Governor campaign. I submit to you that it is Deval Patrick himself. And while being engaging is not enough to win a Governor’s race it should be apparent to all that Deval Patrick is a master of policy. It is a deadly combination if you are a Charlie Baker fan. Baker is deep down a policy guy, and is brilliant in his own right. But that brilliance stops at the presentation level, where he has been choppy and angry. The campaign is to blame directly for that, as well as other strategic errors.

I for one believe the media hype that Republican voters are more motivated this year than Democrats. And that is Baker’s last best hope. If there is a real “Republican tide” that sweeps Massachusetts then maybe Baker can salvage the race. But from a traditional perspective he is toast. From Channel 7:

“We’re past persuasion at this point – we’re into who turns out,” Paleologos said. “And if a large chunk of Deval Patrick supporters from our poll don’t show up next Tuesday, Charlie Baker could win.”

The Suffolk bellwether numbers come out this weekend and should provide some very interesting insights.

The Channel 7 report here.

The Suffolk Marginals.

The Suffolk crosstabs here.

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Wither Russ Feingold?

Posted on October 28, 2010 by billmanzi

Wisconsin Senator Russ Feingold, considered to be a political powerhouse, stands on the verge of losing his seat to Republican Ron Johnson. With time running out the latest Rasmussen survey has Johnson again crossing the 50% threshold, leading Finegold 53% to 46%. Johnson has been leading Finegold for some time and appears to have locked this race up. Johnson’s campaign came up with one of the most talked about ads of the political season, the “whiteboard” ad, which is (in my opinion) highly effective. It received so much play that Feingold felt obligated to respond with his own “whiteboard” ad. Not as effective. This is one that I believe you can chalk up for the Republicans.

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Jessica Raney Lucey is the October SOAR Award Winner

Posted on October 27, 2010 by billmanzi

Congratulations to Jessica Raney Lucey, the October SOAR Award winner. Jessica is first in her class at Methuen High School, and as the below narrative shows she is not only a great student, but a wonderful role model as well. Congratulations Jessica.

“Allow us, the proud members of the English Department, to formally introduce you to our most outstanding SOAR Award recipient. A composite of elements of the gods, Jessica reigns supreme. According to Greek mythology, there existed nine Muses, deities of inspiration and creation who furnished artists, philosophers, and individuals with ideas extraordinaire. Calliope was the chief of the Muses, whose symbol was the writing tablet. Clio, the protector, was the patron of history. Euterpe, the Muse of lyric poetry, was in charge of joy and pleasure. Melpomene, the Muse of tragedy, invented rhetorical speech. Terpsichore, the Whirling Muse who was the one dancing and frolicking about, invented education. All of these characteristics are surely embodied in Jessica Lucey, whose outstanding qualities are reflected in her remarkable scores, contributions, and impressive joie de vivre.
Her freshman teacher Mr. Bellistri offers: “Jessica is a dynamic, savvy and enthusiastic student whose natural brilliance is on continuous display. Perhaps, most importantly, however, is that hidden beneath the awards and high honors is a young woman of character and compassion who is certain to leave MHS a better place than when she entered it.”
Junior AP teacher Lisa Golobski-Twomey assesses: “Jessica is an incredibly strong reader and writer who understands written and spoken texts to be of the ‘purest form of self-expression.’” A young woman demonstrating a maturity beyond her years, Jessica devotes her energy to developing her reading and writing abilities in order to articulate philosophical ideals, poignant thoughts and creative stories. I have come to regard Jessica, not as a student, but as a fellow lover of literature who understands the power of language.”
Sophomore teacher Ann Marie Krusell remarks: “In Jessica Lucey one will find the sine qua non who elevates everyone she encounters to a higher and more sophisticated level. Her interest in and enthusiasm for English is unbridled. Indeed, we may have the actual tenth Muse among us. Jessica, we salute you!”

Jessica Lucey Wins October 2010 SOAR Award

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Treasurers Debate in Methuen

Posted on October 27, 2010 by billmanzi

The last debate between Republican Karyn Polito and Democrat Steve Grossman took place yesterday at the WCCM studios in Methuen. The debate, as in past debates between these two, were hard hitting, with plenty of back and forth on the negatives and some discussion of substance. Polito has been caught up in a controversy about her and her supporters seemingly having access to the best and lowest numbers of the Registry issued Red Sox plates, and Grossman scored her on that during the debate. She also took a hit from Fox News on the issue last night. This race has tightened considerably, with Polito closing a ten point gap in the polls and essentially pulling even. In a standard political year this race would be an easy win for Steve Grossman. This is not a standard political year. The late controversy on the license plates, while not a terribly big deal, cuts against the Polito claim that she is the “political outsider” in this race. I will post the Treasurers debate in podcast form shortly. Congratulations to the “Politically Active” crew for scoring the last debate in the Treasurers Race right here in Methuen.

Read the Tribune story on the debate here.

http://www.myfoxboston.com/video/videoplayer.swf?dppversion=5390

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Why Did Meg Whitman Move to California?

Posted on October 26, 2010 by billmanzi

In two key races in the State of California Democrats appear to be returning home, with Jerry Brown widening his lead over Meg Whitman to 8 points in the latest Suffolk survey. (Yes Paleologos is in California too.) Suffolk’s survey has Barbara Boxer breaking away from Carly Fiorina, leading 52% to 43% in a race that was very close up to this point. The Senate numbers are a blow to Republicans hoping to knock out a liberal member of the US Senate in Boxer who appeared vulnerable this year. I would not call the California Senate race a “key” race in determining control in the next session as Democrats should hold here. But it seems to me that the Republicans would have been better off if the election (nationwide) was held last week. Races have tightened in areas where Republicans seemed poised for wins, including here and PA. And now on to Jerry Brown.

Brown is poised for a huge political comeback, with all numbers showing his lead widening. And I have attached the latest and best Jerry Brown ad, jumping on Meg Whitman’s admission that “30 years ago anything seemed possible in California.” I guess she didn’t know that Jerry Brown was Governor 30 years ago. And Brown has pinned Whitman hard in an ad showing Whitman appearing to parrot the words of unpopular Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger. Another home run for Jerry Brown. Goodnight Meg Whitman. $130 million apparently was not enough.

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Back to Nevada

Posted on October 26, 2010 by billmanzi

One of the toughest and most expensive Senate races in the country is still too close to call, with Sharron Angle ahead by three points in the latest Rasmussen poll. The last time we visited David Paleologos and Suffolk had Harry Reid holding a slight edge. Both sides are pulling out all the stops, and this is one of the races that will determine which Party controls the Senate. Rasmussen has this race as a toss-up, with the more effective ground game likely to eke out a victory. Angle is closing with a full scale assault on Reid over illegal immigration. She is putting a world of hurt on Reid on the issue, and her polling must show it as effective as she has been relentless. But the backlash against her ads amongst Hispanics has been palpable, with outrage growing within that community. Angle was forced to defend the ad campaign with a group of hispanic students, saying that the menacing looking folks depicted were not necessarily hispanic, as the students themselves could be taken for asians. Yes that right. She said that. Here are the latest ads, with Angle still hammering away on immigration. You can see the streams of Asians crossing illegally at the Mexican border. (sorry, I couldn’t resist.)

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Methuen State Rep Debate

Posted on October 26, 2010 by billmanzi

The Methuen State Rep debate occurred at the Eagle Tribune news room, and it was a lively one, with real disagreements, in particular between Linda Dean Campbell and Al Dinuccio. Dinuccio continued his defense of the Lawrence bill, allowing that City to deficit borrow up to $35 million, while Campbell and Hector Montalvo and Phil Lahey all spoke against that bill. A sharp clash came on the prevailing wage law, which Al Dinuccio favors eliminating, especially in the context of the police flagman bill. Good debate, with the issues coming into sharp focus.

Read the Tribune story here.

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