Two new polls have come out (Massachusetts Governor) on the heels of the Suffolk Poll, with Rasmussen reporting that the race has tightened to a two point Deval Patrick lead. (Patrick 46%, Baker 44%, Cahill 6%). The State House News Service survey has Patrick leading by a 40% to 37% margin, with Tim Cahill at 9%. Rasmussen is within the margin of error with Suffolk, with both having the Governor at 46%. And the trendlines are very similar over at the State House News survey:
Buoyed by a huge gender gap in which women strongly support him while men support his opponent, Governor Deval Patrick clings to a slim 3-percentage-point edge less than a week before the election. The good news for Patrick is that, among voters who say they will definitely vote next Tuesday, Patrick’s edge widens to 4-percentage-points. The bad news for Patrick is that independent (unenrolled) voters support opponent Charlie Baker by 44%-30%, so the ability of the Patrick campaign to turn out enough Democrats to offset Baker’s advantage among independents and Republicans will be key on election day.
That gender gap, along with Baker’s insufficient lead with independents, leaves me in the same place I was after the Suffolk poll. This race is now in the grasp of the Governor. The attached clip has Paleologos discussing the differences between the Suffolk results and Rasmussen and SHNS.
There is hope.
The bottom line is for Patrick as it is for Obama..their core constituency is NOT the traditional Democratic core..they put their eggs in the urban/minority/under 35 basket..to hell with the elderly or white working class folk…without the manipulation of having Cahill in the race ( like putting Lahey into the local rep race to assure Campbell’s victory )…Patrick would loose…those pushed aside by the Patrick formula get it…now the question is what will they really do about it?