Two new polls have come out (Massachusetts Governor) on the heels of the Suffolk Poll, with Rasmussen reporting that the race has tightened to a two point Deval Patrick lead. (Patrick 46%, Baker 44%, Cahill 6%). The State House News Service survey has Patrick leading by a 40% to 37% margin, with Tim Cahill at 9%. Rasmussen is within the margin of error with Suffolk, with both having the Governor at 46%. And the trendlines are very similar over at the State House News survey:
Buoyed by a huge gender gap in which women strongly support him while men support his opponent, Governor Deval Patrick clings to a slim 3-percentage-point edge less than a week before the election. The good news for Patrick is that, among voters who say they will definitely vote next Tuesday, Patrick’s edge widens to 4-percentage-points. The bad news for Patrick is that independent (unenrolled) voters support opponent Charlie Baker by 44%-30%, so the ability of the Patrick campaign to turn out enough Democrats to offset Baker’s advantage among independents and Republicans will be key on election day.
That gender gap, along with Baker’s insufficient lead with independents, leaves me in the same place I was after the Suffolk poll. This race is now in the grasp of the Governor. The attached clip has Paleologos discussing the differences between the Suffolk results and Rasmussen and SHNS.