The President's Opening Position on Bush Tax Cuts

The President laid out his opening position on extending the Bush era tax cuts, making three major points.

1) That the lame duck session ought to make the Bush era tax cuts for the “middle class” permanent.

2) That we need to cut spending, and that his suggested three year freeze on discretionary spending ought to be adopted as the tool to do that.

3) That the nation cannot afford to make the Bush era tax cuts permanent for the top two percent (over $250,000).

And so the President offers his compromise to the Republicans, which is to make the bulk of the Bush tax relief permanent, and to extend the tax relief for the top two percent for a finite period of time. He chose his words carefully, but that is what I take from it. He also signaled a willingness to make a deal on spending, but prefers his “three year freeze” to the John Boehner approach of rolling back to 2008 levels. There will be a middle ground found that will serve both in the short term. The base will howl at the extension of the tax cuts for the top two percent, but it is the best deal the President will be able to make. Will John Boehner be able to deliver any Republican votes for this deal in the lame duck session? Will the President buckle if the Republicans hold out for making the tax cuts for the top two percent permanent? Let the negotiations begin.

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The Tsongas Victory Speech

Congresswoman Niki Tsongas speaking at her victory party Tuesday night. She won an impressive victory over a tough opponent in a difficult year for Democrats. And she won a pretty impressive victory in terms of margins. Yes she won Methuen as well.

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The Pelosi Shuffle

Speaker Nancy Pelosi, her Democratic caucus hammered by the elections of last week, has decided to run for Minority Leader in the new Congress. There had been much speculation on her future after the dreadful election results for House Dems, but after taking the pulse of the caucus she has decided to stay on as leader. Despite some rumblings from a few members it looks like she will be well positioned to win that spot and remain the Democratic Leader. I would venture to say that Republicans are delighted with the decision, and will continue to utilize Pelosi as a campaign foil for the next two years.

The Pelosi decision will be hotly debated outside the House, with the potential impacts dissected vigorously. My own view is that success deserves reward, failure requires change. Pelosi has led the Democrats to majority status, but she and the President have failed politically to hold the fort. The Blue Dogs have been wiped out, which some on the left apparently think is a good thing. It is not a good thing, and Speaker Boehner is about to show you how bad of a thing it really is. The Blue Dog eradication will allow Pelosi to withstand any potential challenge, and it also may leave current Majority Leader Steny Hoyer as the odd man out of leadership, as Pelosi will assume that title, leaving Hoyer in the position of running for Whip, a position already held by Rep. James Clyburn. The moderate Hoyer is on the ropes, likely to be drummed out by a smaller and more liberal caucus. Republican operatives throughout the land will smile this morning. Some of the more notable Republican attack ads on the Speaker are below.

The Washington Post story on Steny Hoyer running for Minority Whip here.

The E.J. Dionne column on Nancy Pelosi is here.

Pelosi announces her decision to run for Minority Leader.

Republicans “Jubilant” over Pelosi decision.

http://specials.washingtonpost.com/mv/embed/?title=Republican%20ads%20zero-in%20on%20Nancy%20Pelosi&stillURL=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.washingtonpost.com%2Fwp-dyn%2Fcontent%2Fphoto%2F2010%2F06%2F25%2FPH2010062504242.jpg&flvURL=%2Fmedia%2F2010%2F06252010-18v&width=480&height=270&autoStart=false&clickThru=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.washingtonpost.com%2Fwp-dyn%2Fcontent%2Fvideo%2F2010%2F06%2F25%2FVI2010062504201.html

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Can't Be Done Overnight

Governor Haley Barbour was on Morning Joe a few days ago, talking about the deficit and Republican plans to reduce spending. The Governor, head of the Republican Governor’s Association, has been a major force in this political season, raising and spending millions on behalf of Republican candidates throughout the country. He did come up a wee bit short in Massachusetts and New Hampshire, but the RGA has become the de facto Republican National Committee, which Barbour used to head. His comments on the deficit were instructive, as he pledged to deeply reduce spending, but by golly could not say that a balanced budget would be forthcoming from Republicans anytime soon. I believe he said something like “when you are in this big of a hole it takes a while to get out”. Or “it can’t be done in one year”. Hmmmm. Sound familiar? What else? Well Haley says that the Republicans have a plan to cut spending. But he can’t say what spending will be cut. hmmm. Well lets see what Speaker Boehner produces in terms of real deficit reduction, per the Republican campaign promise. And let us see what programs will be cut, and what political consensus develops around those cuts.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/32545640

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Methuen Election Results and a Few Observations

I have attached a pdf with all of the Methuen election results from yesterday. I will try to do some individual posts later today. Some quick notes though.

1) Congrats to David Paleologos and Suffolk, who called the Governor’s race pretty much spot on.

2) Could the big night for Republicans been even bigger on the Senate side? The Dems are lucky to have escaped with Nevada and Delaware. They did so as gifts from the Republicans.

3) Deval Patrick ran a flawless campaign, and Charlie Baker ran a flawed campaign.

4) The President better start better connecting with voters, or what is left of the Democrats in Washington will be wiped out in 2012. Cannot count on Republican gifts coming forever.

5) Speaker in waiting John Boehner will have as much trouble with his caucus as he will with the Democratic Caucus.

6) Expect a raft of subpoena’s to be served on the Obama Administration from the Republican majority in the House.

7) Congrats to Rep. Linda Dean Campbell, who won every precinct in Methuen on her way to re-election.

2010-general-election

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Deficit Reduction: Walking the Walk

Republicans appear poised to take over the House of Representatives tonight, with a potential pickup of 50 plus seats. And while politics has been front and center post election governing is starting to creep into the conversation. Deficit reduction and spending have been big issues in the election. So what will happen with a Republican House majority to federal deficits and federal spending? Interesting question.

Politico just did a story on Paul Ryan, the Budget Committee Chairman in waiting. Ryan has been a deficit hawk who has had the guts to put his ideas into print for reducing the deficit. Those ideas have been treated like radioactive waste by his fellow Republicans. Now he will be heading the Budget Committee. Just saw Haley Barbour on Morning Joe already laying the groundwork for continued deficit spending under a Republican Congress. Election is not yet over and the excuses are flowing already. I will post the Barbour clip later. But the question that I have is this: When will a Republican Congress FILE a balanced budget? Now before all the apologists get all up in arms I said FILE, not pass. When will they produce a “roadmap” to balance? How long will it take, and what difficult decisions need to be made to get us there? And will a Republican Congress vote in January to raise the “debt ceiling”? There is a big difference between throwing rocks and governing. The Republicans are about to find out what that difference really is. And they will find out without many Democratic votes in the House. Lets see how they do.

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Suffolk Bellwether Results for Governor

Suffolk pollster David Paleologos has selected Waltham as his bellwether community, and the news is pretty good for Deval Patrick. Suffolk has Patrick ahead in that community by a 47% to 40% margin over Charlie Baker, with Tim Cahill at 9% and Jill Stein at 1%,with 3% undecided. The bellwether results in the Scott Brown race were pretty close to reality. More good news from a polling perspective for Governor Patrick.

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West Virginia and Washington:Senate Firewall for Dems?

With Republicans poised to take back the House of Representatives tomorrow the U.S. Senate, thought by many to be out of reach for the Republicans in this cycle, may be in play. The two key races that could tell the story are in West Virginia and Washington State. Senator Patty Murray is locked in a dead heat with Dino Rossi in Washington, and the latest surveys have Rossi inching ahead slightly. Like many of the campaigns it has been expensive and nasty. With all of the political chatter about “wave” elections a statistical dead heat in polling has to be considered to be advantage Republican. I give the edge here to Rossi. Rasmussen has Rossi with a one point edge.

In West Virginia Democratic Governor Joe Manchin, with an approval rating of 70%, is beginning to create some distance between him and John Raese, the Republican. Manchin leads in the latest Public Policy survey by 5 points. With all of his favorability Manchin has still struggled to stay ahead of a pretty poor Republican candidate. If Manchin goes down it will be a very long night for the Dems. In this race I believe Joe Manchin holds on for the win. Politico has listed the “Big Ten” Senate races, and we will list those in a separate post.

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Rep. Campbell on the Mayor's Corner

State Rep. Linda Dean Campbell appeared on the Mayor’s Corner and talked about many issues, including her opposition to the sales tax hike, her strong stand in favor of funding for Methuen High School, her tough stand on immigration, and casino gaming. She has been a solid Rep. with a great set of values that reflect the district she represents. Thank You Rep. Campbell for coming on.

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Linda Dean Campbell on the Mayors Corner Part 2

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