New Hampshire Governor John Lynch appears poised to beat back a formidable challenge by Republican John Stephen. Lynch is a popular Governor who has traditionally won re-election by wide margins. In this cycle of difficulty for incumbents and for Democrats Lynch will likely have a much smaller margin of victory than he is used to, but a victory nonetheless. The latest Public Policy survey has Lynch with a nine point advantage, with some mighty intriguing numbers for a Democrat. In a year where independents are fleeing the Democratic brand Lynch is ahead by 16 points with that group. Wow. Maybe some National Democratic leaders ought to be talking to this guy. How does he lead with independents when just about every Dem in the country is getting whipped in that demographic? Lynch also is commanding 22% of Republican voters. Wow again. And those numbers are even more impressive when considered with the impending big win of Republican Kelly Ayotte in the open Senate seat race there. And Lynch earned the endorsement of the Eagle Tribune editorial board as well.

From the Public Opinion press release on the survey:

Meanwhile in the Governor’s race it appears John Lynch will get reelected, but not by nearly the kind of gaudy margin he has become accustomed to. For instance he’s winning independents 56-40, an unusual feat for a Democrat this year. But that’s nothing compared to the 79-19 advantage exit polls showed for him with them in 2008. And the 22% of Republicans he’s winning is an unusual amount of crossover support for any candidate this year, but it’s less than the 31% of them he got the last time around. Nevertheless barring a major shift in the final few days of the campaign he should
survive for another term.

John Stephen is toast.

Read the Herald story on a contentious debate between the candidates here.