Blood in the Gamecock Waters

The Republican race in South Carolina has begun to tighten, with the continuing assaults of Newt Gingrich beginning to slow the Mitt Romney train. Romney’s campaign has begun to slow themselves as well, with the news cycle being dominated first by the story of Romney’s effective tax rate being 15%, and now by the story that he has millions of dollars parked in investment vehicles in the Cayman Islands. It appears clear that nobody has uncovered anything illegal in the Romney revelations, but they have without question dominated the news cycle and contributed to the mini Gingrich surge. (Good thing I am waiting to make my South Carolina predictions)!

Romney has continued to display a real lack of “common touch” in his handling of this situation, showing a tin political ear whenever he appears to speak off the cuff. His comment that his roughly $350,000 in speaking fees were “not much” certainly held him up to ridicule, and rightfully so. So the Mittster had his worst week of this Presidential season, and is now facing a big debate tonight in South Carolina with Gingrich closing fast. If Newt is as effective tonight as he was in the last debate this race could be very tight.

Politico has a new poll that shows Romney still leading, but Gingrich closing. Romney stands at 37%, Gingrich at 30%, Ron Paul at 11%, Rick Santorum at 10%, and Rick Perry at 4%. Romney is hearing the footsteps. He unleashed two internet ads hitting Gingrich, but has been taking some heavy incoming himself. Should be a real good debate tonight.

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Happy Birthday Muhammed Ali

I must wish the greatest of all time a very happy 70th birthday. Ali was and is an icon who has transcended his role as a boxer to become something very much more. He is a world wide celebrity who turned his skill in the ring into a force for change and good. You didn’t always have to agree with Ali to recognize the immense talent that he had, as a boxer and as a human being.

Ali produced some of the most electrifying moments in all of sports history, starting with his monumental upset of Sonny Liston (the bear), through his three epic battles with Smoking Joe Frazier, and his glorious upset of the heavily favored George Foreman at the Rumble in the Jungle. As a student at UMass Amherst I missed the Foreman fight, but when the result came in the entire campus erupted in joy. Ali entered the ring against Foreman with most expecting him to be clubbed into submission by the hard hitting Foreman, who had not lost up to that point, winning most of his fights by early round knockouts. Ali had other plans, employing what he later described as his “rope a dope” strategy, laying on the ropes and inviting Foreman in to flail away at him. Foreman took the invitation, but could not land a decisive blow, wearing himself down and allowing Ali to come off those ropes in the eighth and knock Foreman out. It was an amazing display, made even more amazing by the way Ali co-opted the crowd in Zaire, turning them against Foreman and leading them between rounds in the chant of “Ali, Bomaye”(Ali, Kill him). Foreman was partially beaten before he even stepped in the ring. Ali’s career is so extensive, and his boxing feats so astounding, that a simple blog posting cannot do him justice. But the day he beat Foreman Ali did indeed “shock the world”. Happy Birthday Ali!

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Song of the Week- Charlie Mars- "Gather the Horses"

A great tune from Charlie Mars!

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Huntsman Drops Out

Accepting the inevitable Jon Huntsman this morning bowed out of the Republican presidential race and endorsed Mitt Romney. Huntsman received more fawning press than any candidate with his polling numbers could rightfully expect, and had just received the endorsement of South Carolina’s largest newspaper, “The State”. This endorsement came in despite Huntsman polling behind Rick Perry, with no prospects for victory in South Carolina. (I think Hunstman was even behind candidate for President of the United States (South Carolina) Stephen Colbert.)

Huntsman should be seeking a refund from those who took money from him and devised one of the most inane campaign blueprints in the annals of modern campaigns. He had no message, no organization, no money, and a strategy that placed all his campaign eggs into winning New Hampshire, where Mitt Romney has been seen as dominant for over a year. Even if he had done better in New Hampshire how was that going to translate into making him viable in South Carolina, where he had invested nothing? He won 10% of Republicans in the New Hampshire primary, and that was because whatever messaging he had put forward was so unacceptable to the Republican base that his prospects in a place like South Carolina would have to be dismissed, even absent polling data. Political malpractice at its worst. Sorry about the barbs, but I called this one right from the start.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/32545640

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Lowell Manager Lynch at Mayors and Managers Breakfast

Some video of Lowell Manager Bernie Lynch talking about the issues facing Lowell at the Merrimack Valley Mayors and Managers breakfast. I missed the very start of his talk, but he did a great job of presenting to the interested crowd. Mayors Fiorentini and Kezer, as well as Mayor Holaday, Mayor Lantigua, Manager Stapcyzinski, Manager Maylor, and Mayor Zanni made presentations to the crowd, talking about issues and progress in each of their communities. Great job by all. The Tribune story on the event is here.

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Weekly Podcast- Staggering Municipal Retiree Health Care Costs

I had a great conversation with Teddy Panos this week on WCAP, 980 on the am dial, talking about the new report from the Massachusetts Taxpayers Foundation detailing the staggering unfunded retiree health care obligations of ten gateway cities, including Lowell. I have attached the Foundation Report at the bottom of this posting. This report, by Michael Widmer and the Foundation, details the current methodology of paying for municipal health care costs, and how the “pay as you go” method, used by all ten communities, is allowing these liabilities to continue to grow and accrue as unfunded. In order to meet these obligations in the future the service cuts and or tax increases that would be necessary are staggering, to both residential and commercial property taxpayers. Widmer, as usual, is exceedingly thorough in his analysis. He shows us what a scheduled payment against this liability would mean for these municipalities, and the numbers are not pretty. The system of making scheduled payments against a future unfunded liability is how municipalities are required to handle their unfunded pension obligations, and those payments have caused great strain on municipal budgets. The Commonwealth is also on a pension schedule, and like municipalities has had to defer scheduled payments by extending the full payment schedule out further into the future.

Since municpalities are now going to be required to book their OPEB (Other Post Employment Benefits) liabilities these retiree health care costs, in the past hidden by virtue of not being reported, are out in the open. It is only a matter of time before mandatory steps are imposed to address the problem. Widmer makes several recommendations which are likely to cause substantial political heartburn. They are:

1) Implement Municipal Health Care Reform. On the way via the new State law empowering municipalities in this area.

2) Tie benefits to Years of Service and Raise the Minimum Service for Eligibility. Recommendation would push the system of post retirement health care benefits to look more like the pension system, with longer service allowing a greater health care benefit. Full benefits today can accrue after 10 years of service.

3) Raise the Eligibility Age for Retiree Health Care. This recommendation makes perfect sense, and probably reflects one of the greatest weaknesses in the current retiree health care system. Retiring at 55 and getting full benefits until 65 (medicare) is a huge cost drag on municipalities. The recent health care reform bill mandated that all medicare eligible retirees be moved to that system, as incredibly some localities had not done so. But this recommendation would likely cause a huge political brawl.

4) Increase Eligibility Hours and Prorate Benefits for Part Time Employees.

5) End Spousal/Dependent Coverage. Talk about a political firestorm!

6) Reduce the Municipal Share of Premium Contributions. Oh boy another recommendation mandated by the numbers, but one that would cause a political firestorm.

We talked about the Rep. Campbell proposal for reforming the current laws and regulations governing Housing Authorities, as well as the naming of the new receiver for the Lawrence Public Schools. Can’t wait until next Friday on WCAP, where everyone gets it.

https://player.soundcloud.com/player.swf?url=http%3A%2F%2Fapi.soundcloud.com%2Ftracks%2F33391429 WCAP January 13, 2012 by Bill Manzi

opeb-report-10-cities

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The Charge of the Newt Brigade

As promised Newt Gingrich has unleashed a volley of attacks against Mitt Romney in South Carolina. Newt has been joined by Governor Rick Perry, who has called the Romney business practices at Bain “vulture capitalism”. And Newt is not just talking tough politics, he is talking Armaggedon.

“This is going to be Armageddon – they are going to come in here with everything they’ve got, every surrogate, every ad, every negative attack,” Gingrich said. “At the same time we’ll be drawing a sharp contrast between a Georgia Reagan conservative and a Massachusetts moderate who’s pro-gun control, pro-choice, pro-tax increase, pro-liberal judge, and the voters of South Carolina will have to look and decide.”

Gingrich is taking a pretty heavy backlash from the Republican establishment, who are horrified at the thought of Romney being softened up by the Gingrich artillery fire. Gingrich is without question moving towards pariah status, but you have to give him some credit. He is one pissed off candidate, and he is now going to give Romney a taste of his own medicine. I have heard Gingrich respond to some of the complaining, but I have yet to hear him say “this ain’t beanbag”. I am sure that is coming.

So does the assault change the Republican dynamic? I don’t think so, but the first new poll out of South Carolina from Insider Advantage has the Romney lead whittled to the margin of error over Gingrich. Romney comes in at 23%, Gingrich at 21%, Santorum at 14%, Paul at 13%, Huntsman at 7%, and Perry at 5%. Is this a polling anomaly, or are the Gingrich attacks bringing the Romney numbers down? My guess is that the Romney lead is a bit wider, but that Gingrich’s attacks are having a real impact. With millions being thrown into the battle to stop Romney even if he wins he will be substantially marked up. The President continues to raise money, and pick at the Republican divisions, especially over the excesses on Wall Street. This does not look like it is going to end well for the Republicans. Oh well, C’est la vie.

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Mitt Rolls in NH

Mitt Romney, as expected, has been declared the winner in New Hampshire. Almost as importantly, and to the great benefit of Governor Romney, Ron Paul finished a strong second, beating back a late mini run by Jon Huntsman, who finished third. Romney is now poised to run the table on the first four Republican contests, as he has a strong lead in South Carolina, and he has Ron Paul acting as a human shield against any other candidate who might have a chance to make any inroads against Romney. I wonder what role Rand Paul is playing in the tacit Paul/Romney alliance? Food for thought.

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The New Hampshire Predictions

My New Hampshire predictions:

1) Mitt Romney. Easy choice for first, but will he meet the expectations game? A win with less than 30% will be panned.

2) Jon Huntsman. Ok, I said he would get his ass kicked here, but I have reassessed. Huntsman in a very tight battle with Ron Paul for this spot.

3) Ron Paul. Stayin alive to help Mitt Romney another day.

4) Rick Santorum. Iowa doesn’t quite give him the bounce he had hoped for. After South Carolina he will be heading for the showers.

5) Newt Gingrich. The plummet continues. Ahh what might have been. But with $3.5 million ready to unleash on Mitt Romney in South Carolina Newt is not done just yet.

6) Rick Perry. Perry may finish below Buddy Roemer, which may prompt him to reassess. Then he will jog.

6a) Buddy Roemer. Let Buddy debate. If you let Rick Perry debate………

That is all!

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Counter-Attack

The counter attack against Mitt Romney has been launched, creating a brutal 24 hour period of incessant negative coverage for the Mittster. Leading the charge has been Newt Gingrich, who is still smarting from Romney’s negative ad blitz in Iowa. It appears that Gingrich will have some measure of revenge, with Sheldon Adelson pumping $5 million into a Gingrich Super-Pac, which Newt apparently will spend tearing Romney down.

With the Meet the Press debate getting the anti-Romney bandwagon rolling the hits have been directed into South Carolina, where the anti-Romney forces, still not united, sense the imperative of stopping him. A big Romney win in South Carolina, following a big win in New Hampshire, will likely set the stage for him to close the show in Florida, where a brand new Quinnipiac University poll has Romney enjoying a double digit lead over Newt Gingrich, with Romney at 36%, Gingrich at 24%, Santorum at 16%, Ron Paul at 10%, Rick Perry at 5%, and of course Jon Huntsman at 2%. With Romney leading the pack in South Carolina the rest of the field realizes that he is on the verge of doing what I speculated that Newt Gingrich might be able to do a short time ago: running the table on the field by winning the first four contests, and locking down the nomination.

Finally I must go back to Jon Huntsman. It would appear that he has picked up some momentum in New Hampshire, where he has camped out for the past year. But he continues to poll in the single digits in South Carolina and Florida, and the strategy just escapes me. He is truly going to be bulldozed after the primary tonight, with no money and no organization in South Carolina or Florida. On to South Carolina, where the fighting will be fierce. New Hampshire predictions to come.

http://specials.washingtonpost.com/mv/embed/?title=Romney%3A%20'I%20like%20being%20able%20to%20fire%20people'&stillURL=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.washingtonpost.com%2Frf%2Fimage_606w%2F2010-2019%2FWashingtonPost%2F2012%2F01%2F09%2FNational-Politics%2FVideos%2F01092012-40v%2F01092012-40v.jpg&flvURL=%2Fmedia%2F2012%2F01%2F09%2F01092012-40v.m4v&width=480&height=270&autoStart=0&clickThru=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.washingtonpost.com%2Fpolitics%2Fromney-i-like-being-able-to-fire-people%2F2012%2F01%2F09%2FgIQAxqorlP_video.html

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