Counter-Attack

The counter attack against Mitt Romney has been launched, creating a brutal 24 hour period of incessant negative coverage for the Mittster. Leading the charge has been Newt Gingrich, who is still smarting from Romney’s negative ad blitz in Iowa. It appears that Gingrich will have some measure of revenge, with Sheldon Adelson pumping $5 million into a Gingrich Super-Pac, which Newt apparently will spend tearing Romney down.

With the Meet the Press debate getting the anti-Romney bandwagon rolling the hits have been directed into South Carolina, where the anti-Romney forces, still not united, sense the imperative of stopping him. A big Romney win in South Carolina, following a big win in New Hampshire, will likely set the stage for him to close the show in Florida, where a brand new Quinnipiac University poll has Romney enjoying a double digit lead over Newt Gingrich, with Romney at 36%, Gingrich at 24%, Santorum at 16%, Ron Paul at 10%, Rick Perry at 5%, and of course Jon Huntsman at 2%. With Romney leading the pack in South Carolina the rest of the field realizes that he is on the verge of doing what I speculated that Newt Gingrich might be able to do a short time ago: running the table on the field by winning the first four contests, and locking down the nomination.

Finally I must go back to Jon Huntsman. It would appear that he has picked up some momentum in New Hampshire, where he has camped out for the past year. But he continues to poll in the single digits in South Carolina and Florida, and the strategy just escapes me. He is truly going to be bulldozed after the primary tonight, with no money and no organization in South Carolina or Florida. On to South Carolina, where the fighting will be fierce. New Hampshire predictions to come.

http://specials.washingtonpost.com/mv/embed/?title=Romney%3A%20'I%20like%20being%20able%20to%20fire%20people'&stillURL=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.washingtonpost.com%2Frf%2Fimage_606w%2F2010-2019%2FWashingtonPost%2F2012%2F01%2F09%2FNational-Politics%2FVideos%2F01092012-40v%2F01092012-40v.jpg&flvURL=%2Fmedia%2F2012%2F01%2F09%2F01092012-40v.m4v&width=480&height=270&autoStart=0&clickThru=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.washingtonpost.com%2Fpolitics%2Fromney-i-like-being-able-to-fire-people%2F2012%2F01%2F09%2FgIQAxqorlP_video.html

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New Hampshire Home Stretch

The primary in New Hampshire arrives tomorrow, and Mitt Romney still holds a commanding lead. David Paleologos over at Suffolk just put out his daily tracking numbers, with Mitt Romney still in slight decline at 33%, Ron Paul at 20%, and Jon Huntsman at 13%. (Hope I don’t have to eat my words about Huntsman getting his ass kicked!)

The candidates engaged in two debates, Saturday evening, and Sunday morning. The first debate, moderated by George Stephanopoulos, allowed Mitt Romney to escape without any damage. I think the world of Stephanopoulos as a tough questioner, but the ABC debate just didn’t have it. The Meet the Press debate on Sunday morning was just the opposite, with moderator David Gregory opening the door wide for the candidates to hit Mitt Romney. They were more than happy to walk through that door, with Gingrich and Santorum piling on the Mittster, and scoring some good points. Romney was a bit ruffled by both, but he always keeps his composure.

I thought that Jon Huntsman had his best debate of the season on Sunday morning (maybe he can avoid that ass-kicking after all), and I think he scored on Romney with the attached clip. I am not sure that his service as ambassador in the Obama Administration is a big winner with Republican voters, but his comments on the naked partisanship of Romney’s attacks on that service will resonate with independents, who are eligible to vote in the Republican primary. I still see Huntsman as not going anywhere, but he has gotten Romney’s attention in New Hampshire. Paleologos is showing Romney slippage in his daily tracks, and the main beneficiary seems to be Huntsman.

After all is said and done Romney must now manage the expectations game after his likely New Hampshire win. Will his margin further shrink, and will the impending victory be seen as decisive enough? Romney is on the cusp, but he will now be put under a barrage of negative ads and commentary from Gingrich and Santorum. Gingrich just took down $5 million from Sheldon Adelson, so he will be able to fund some punishing ads against Romney. And he has made it clear that his mission in life is to do just that! Romney needs to hold on in New Hampshire and then do the same in South Carolina. He will be the nominee, but that car will have significantly more dents and dings than Romney was hoping for.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/32545640

Visit msnbc.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy

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Song of the Week- CSN- Helplessly Hoping

The true masters of harmony, this 1969 gem is as good today as it was back then. From “Crosby, Stills, and Nash”.

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Mayor or Manager?

Had an interesting conversation with Ted Panos and the morning crew over at WCAP 980 am this morning on the relative merits of a town manager vs a mayor. The WCAP discussion was spurred by a letter to the editor, in the Lowell Sun, from John Macdonald, who ran for Lowell City Council in the past cycle. Macdonald advocates for Lowell looking at a charter change that would create a strong Mayor form of government to replace the current “Form E” style (strong Manager, ceremonial Mayor). Last Saturday Kendall Wallace wrote a Saturday column talking about the possibility of selecting the ceremonial Mayor in a different way. He did not advocate changing the Plan E form, but rather looking at the possibility of direct election of the “ceremonial” mayor. Of course Wallace points to the obvious disappointment of the losing candidate for Mayor, and the divisions that such a Council election tends to create among the members. Wallace makes some strong points which Macdonald jumped on in his letter to go for the bigger change. What do you think? Manager or Mayor?

Great conversation with Teddy on this, as well as some comments on the Methuen School Building project, the recall in Lawrence, and some punishment meted out to liquor establishments in Haverhill. Looking forward to next weeks conversation already. Tune in next Friday at 8:10 am to WCAP, 980 on your am dial, where everyone gets it!

https://player.soundcloud.com/player.swf?url=http%3A%2F%2Fapi.soundcloud.com%2Ftracks%2F32688418 WCAP January 6, 2012 Bill Manzi by Bill Manzi

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The Romney March

Not too long ago I speculated on the possibility that Newt Gingrich might be able to deliver an early knockout to Mitt Romney by winning Iowa, South Carolina, and Florida, and running a strong second in New Hampshire. At that time Newt led Rpmney by wide margins in all but New Hampshire. Then the Romney money and organization targeted Gingrich with ferocity, dumping millions in negative ads on him in Iowa. Gingrich, having no money to respond, cried foul. But the Romney assault worked. Gingrich dropped like a stone in Iowa, allowing Romney to come in and steal a victory. Romney is now poised to win New Hampshire by a wide margin (David Paleologos over at Suffolk has Romney at 40%, Paul at 17%, Santorum at 11%, Gingrich at 9%, Huntsman at 8%, Perry at 1%), and is so sure of victory there that he has allowed himself time off from N.H. to campaign in South Carolina. Ahh yes South Carolina.

South Carolina, according to the Romney skeptics, is where the anti Romney firewall would be built. But it sure looks like that firewall is crumbling. The latest polling from South Carolina shows Romney at 37%, Rick Santorum at 19%, Newt Gingrich at 18%, (down from 43%), Ron Paul is at 12%, and jogging Rick Perry is at 5%. Romney has begun spending real money in South Carolina, along with rolling out endorsements from Governor Niki Haley and John McCain, who both campaigned with him this week in S.C. Romney’s ad on the NLRB and Boeing in South Carolina is an effective appeal in South Carolina, and shows just how far ahead of the Republican pack Romney is strategically.

Another factor that needs to be considered is how much Ron Paul has helped Mitt Romney throughout this process. Dr. Paul joined Romney in tearing down Newt Gingrich in Iowa, unveiling some pretty tough ads. He is now attacking the newest Republican “not Mitt” of the month, Rick Santorum, with another rough ad. Romney can just sit back and watch, comfortable in seeing the Paul numbers rise at the expense of Gingrich and Santorum.

So who can stop the Romney Express? Every time I read a story about Jon Huntsman being that person I simply laugh in amazement. This guy does not compete in Iowa, throws everything into New Hampshire, where he is polling in single digits, and is currently polling at 1% in South Carolina. He received the endorsement of the Boston Globe, which should cost him a few percentage points in a Republican primary. Huntsman is the candidate with a muddled message, no national organization, no support among Republicans, and yet gets glowing press as a potential alternative to Romney. It is a joke, and he will be joining Michelle Bachmann right after he gets his ass kicked in New Hampshire. Which brings us to the “running man” Rick Perry, who, despite the difficulty, keeps making a bigger ass of himself with each passing day. Perry went home to reassess after his Iowa debacle, went jogging, and decided to make a stand in South Carolina. I guess that is better than making a stand in New Hampshire, where he is at 1%. At least in South Carolina he is at 5%. After the South Carolina primary Perry’s campaign staff should take away his jogging shoes.

So it is up to either Santorum or Gingrich, neither of whom has the money or organization to compete. If either one even had a sliver of a chance it would have to be as the only conservative alternative to Romney, and even at that I doubt it. But Gingrich’s description of Santorum as a “junior partner” should put any thought of uniting to stop Romney to rest. Gingrich’s massive ego will not allow him to step aside in favor of Santorum, despite his apparent distaste for Romney.

Romney’s superior management skills are on display for all to see in this primary season. It will be substantially different in the general, where Romney will not be facing an opponent determined to shred himself. But Romney deserves credit for devising a solid campaign plan, and for having the discipline to stick to it. He also gets campaign kudos for making plan changes on the fly that were necessary to derail each Republican “not Mitt” of the month. Frankly speaking he is the only Republican with a chance in November.

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The Iowa Fallout

The Republican Caucuses were held last night in Iowa, and Mitt Romney eked out a victory over a surging Rick Santorum by the slightest of margins (8 total votes statewide). Now that is close. The fallout has been quick, with Governor Rick Perry “reassessing” his campaign, and Michelle Bachmann having a presser at 11:00 am this morning to likely do the same thing. Newt Gingrich gave a post-caucus speech in which he gave every indication that he is looking to torch Mitt Romney, and team up with Rick Santorum to do so if possible. Gingrich is making it clear that as far as Mitt Romney goes it is scorched earth from this day forward. He opened the festivities with a full page ad in the Manchester Union Leader attacking Romney on a score of issues (Reagan Conservative vs Massachusetts Moderate). If he had any real money Romney might have to worry. But I think that both Gingrich and now Santorum will be on the receiving end of more negative hits from the Mittster, who is not about to roll over because Gingrich is having a temper tantrum.

A new CNN NH survey showed why Speaker Gingrich is upset. Romney continues to lead there by a wide margin, polling at 47%, with Dr. Ron Paul second at 17%, and Jon Huntsman at 13%, Santorum at 10% (a 5% move) and Speaker Gingrich at 9% (a 3% decline). It is one thing to be down in the polls, but Gingrich has to be mortified that he actually is polling below Jon Huntsman, which is a huge indignity. New Hampshire polling, in my view, will show further gains for Santorum, but those gains will come at the expense of Huntsman and Gingrich, and maybe a little bit of shaving of the Romney number as well. I am more interested in the latest South Carolina numbers with the new field configuration, and I just can’t wait for the Republican debates coming soon. For now Romney achieved multiple goals in Iowa:

1) He stole a victory, even though he slightly mishandled the expectations game. When Romney saw opportunity he swept into Iowa, looking to deliver a knockout blow. He did not win a landslide, but he did achieve a victory that a few short weeks ago seemed improbable. Kudos to the Romney campaign team. Great execution.

2) His only real opponent, Newt Gingrich, is severely wounded. Rick Santorum has risen, but will not have the horsepower organizationally or financially to compete against Romney across the nation. He has been camped out in Iowa for the past year, and does not really have a national organization. Romney is picking them off one by one, in a most ruthless fashion. Santorum will now experience what Gingrich has been tasting, as the big guns of “Restore Our Future” set sights on him.

The Romney march continues.

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The Methuen High School Project

The Methuen High School project has seen its construction schedule slip by a yet undetermined amount of time. This schedule slippage is due solely to the desire of myself, as the former Mayor, and the Building Committee, to hold the line on the construction budget. The facts involved in this delay point to a desire to protect the taxpayers of the City, and of the Commonwealth of Massachusetts. Let us start from the begining.

Methuen, in 2006, applied for funding from the Massachusetts School Building Authority, receiving approval immediately after the Commonwealth of Massachusetts lifted the moratorium on school building assistance. We were one of the first High Schools approved, having completed the process known as the “statement of interest” in 2006.

After approval Methuen constituted the “Building Committee”, which has been chaired superbly by Suzanne Lamoureux, who is an educator in Methuen, as well as an engineer who has worked in the construction field. The Building Committee selected the Owners Project Manager, which is required on Massachusetts Building projects with a total value of over $1.5 million. We then began the process. Our design team was selected by the Designer Selection panel of the Massachusetts School Building Authority, with some input from our Building Committee.

Our Building Committee determined that we would proceed with this process under a relatively new (to the public sector) process known as “Construction Manager at Risk”. The CM at Risk process brings on a Construction Manager substantially earlier in the process, on the theory that collaboration between CM, Design, and OPM teams will produce a construction process that has less problems, both financially and from a construction standpoint. This process requires the Construction Manager to provide to the City what is called a “Guaranteed Maximum Price”, or GMP, which would bind the Construction Manager to honor that price, and hence become “at risk”. This process is of course substantially different than “design, bid, build”, the standard for public construction in Massachusetts. Methuen received additional reimbursement points from the Massachusetts School Building Authority for the adoption of the CM at Risk methodology.

With the adoption of the CM-at Risk methodology and the hiring of the mentioned staff Methuen’s Building Committee went to work on design. Our project received a reimburesement rate of 68% after the completition of feasibility and schematic design. Our City entered into a Project Finance Agreement with the MSBA that codified this rate, as well as codifying the construction costs for this project based on schematic and preliminary drawings. That cost, for construction, was approximately $75.9 million.

The City, after a competitive selection process, picked Dimeo Construction of Providence to be the Construction Manager for this project last year. Dimeo was brought in with the design at 60% of completion. At that point, after review, the Construction Manager indicated that it was their view that the project, as drawn, could not be completed for the budget price. We apprised the MSBA of their view, and began the process of “value engineering’ on the project. The design team presented the Building Committee with options, which were adopted, which reduced project scope by over $6 million. We continued to work with the Design team and the Construction Manager to achieve budgetary balance, and we achieved budgetary reconciliation between the CM and the Design team at 90% of drawings. That is a critical point, and one that shows that the project, at 90% of drawings, had met our construction budget. Inexplicably, when the Construction Manager filed his GMP proposal it was over $6 million over the number, despite the reconciliation at 90%. At this point the City began to work with the CM, to understand the reason for the overage. These discussions led to a further reduction in the GMP proposal of over $1 million, but obviously it left us well over the construction budget. Without a further ability to reconcile with the Construction Manager the Building Committee severed its relationship with Dimeo Construction. So where does that leave us?

The Building Committee wisely determined that the project would be split into phases. Our contractual relationship with Dimeo was restricted to pre-construction services and the “enabling” work. Our contract allowed us to separate for convenience if agreement could not be reached on GMP. We have started and completed the enabling work. We completed the work on the Central School 9th grade campus on time and slightly under budget. So now we are faced with schedule slippage on the main project, but it should be clear: we are NOT over budget, nor is the project in disarray. We have stopped because of the differences with the Construction Manager over the budget.

So the City explores staying within the 149a process and hiring a new construction manager. If that is not possible the City will move to a 149 process, “design, bid, build.” That is what is being determined by the Building Committee. The main issue is the one identified by the Eagle Tribune in its editorial:

One serious question remains to be answered. That is whether Methuen officials are realistic in their expectation that the construction can be done for $75.9 million. An experienced construction firm would not agree to do it for that price. Will Methuen be able to find one that will?

It has been our belief, even after the GMP submission by Dimeo, that Methuen can hit that number. If additional value engineering is required to do so it has been the consensus opinion that the Building Committee would be supportive of such an effort. As we move forward it is now a matter of selecting the process (149a vs 149), selecting the new CM (if 149A), or preparing the documents for “design bid build” (149) if the City moves in that direction. This process is delayed, and the delay is unfortunate, but the building committee has made the prudent choice in defending its budget, and protecting the taxpayers of Methuen and of the Commonwealth of Massachusetts. For those that are confused by the process that confusion, in light of the complexities involved, is understandable. But the Building Committee has largely been unanimous in its decision making up to this point. Our professional staff has been outstanding, and has shielded the City of Methuen from the potential budgetary problems inherent in public construction. The process is ready to be moved forward, but will require much additional work. The Methuen High School project will become a reality.

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The Inaugural Address of Mayor Zanni

The Inaugural Address of Mayor Steve Zanni, at the Nevins Memorial Library.

The photo’s from the Inaugural are here.

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Thank You Methuen

This morning Mayor Steve Zanni will be sworn in as Methuen’s fourth Mayor of the modern period, and fifth overall. With the closing of my third term of office as Mayor I would like to thank the good people of Methuen for the honor of serving as Mayor of this wonderful community. It really has been an honor and a privelege to serve this City. My thanks to the employees of the City, and to my staff, who put up with me for six years. Best wishes to all for a happy and safe New Year!

My exit interview with the Tribune is here.

My Staff on my final day in office!

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Diane Maroun is the December Artist of the Month

Mayor William M. Manzi has named Diane Maroun as December’s Artist of the Month. Fine artist Diane J. Maroun, graduated from the prestigious School of the Museum of Fine Arts in Boston, Massachusetts. Diane has received instruction from nationally renown artists such as Copley Master, Mark Hayden and technical master John Barnes. For over 15 years Diane has created celebrated portraits of both people and animals using the techniques of such masters as Sargent or Bouguereau. From a photograph or live subject, Diane’s paintings “literally glow – offering a depth, richness, and quality of tone” not often found in art today.

Although her main focus is traditional and realistic art using oils and watercolors, Diane also has extensive experience in fantasy art and illustrative work for cards. In addition to being a commissioned fine artist, Diane has been past president and a member of Andover Artists Guild, Inc. of Andover, Massachusetts for over 12, as well as the past head coordinator for Andover Art in the Park for over 10 years. Diane also held the position of Director of the Alexander Fine Art Gallery of Haverhill, Massachusetts and was former Owner and Director of the Crescent Dragon Gallery Cafe also in Haverhill, Massachusetts. She currently works in Methuen.

Mayor Manzi stated, “I’d like to thank Diane for her participation in this program. She is one of the many talented artists working in our community. It is an honor to display her paintings in my office. I encourage people to come to my office and view her work.”

The Methuen Artist of the Month Program was created by Mayor Manzi over five years ago in order to give members of the Methuen Arts Community a forum to display their work and to encourage participation in Methuen’s growing creative economy.

Diane Maroun is the December 2011 Artist of the Month

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