Mitt's Swing State Blues

Posted on November 1, 2012 by billmanzi

Since we have been all polls all the time why change today? Wall Street Journal/NBC/Marist has arrived with three key swing state numbers, from New Hampshire, Iowa, and Wisconsin. They all show President Obama holding onto small leads that have diminished over the past month. The numbers please.

For me I look to Wisconsin first. Even though some of my friends don’t believe it I still concede that Mitt Romney has a chance to win this election. I try to look at the numbers without trying to spin them so that I get a result I am hoping for. Not to be a broken record but I don’t see how Mitt Romney wins without Ohio. That is not a partisan observation. I think Mitt Romney believes it too. Wisconsin is important because I believe that if Romney were to break through here it might indicate that the Obama mid-western firewall, including Ohio, might be in trouble. So lets see what Marist is showing in WI.

25% of voters have already voted in Wisconsin, and as with other early vote states the President is leading by large margins with those voters. (59% to 39%). Overall the President leads Mitt Romney, with likely voters, by a 49% to 46% margin, with 3% undecided, and 2% with “other”. That 2% looks pretty important to both candidacies right about now. It is also clear that voters are hardened, and there is not a lot of persuasion left to be done. The number is within the margin of error, and shows Romney cutting the President’s lead in half since the last survey. An interesting note is the favorable/unfavorable number. The President stands at 53%/44%, while Romney is at 47%/47%. The President’s job approval is at 49% approval, 45% disapproval. And the President has a big lead with women, leading here by 14% with females. The big US Senate race in WI has Democrat Tammy Baldwin with an ever so slight lead on Tommy Thompson 48% to 47%, with 1% undecided (talk about hardening) and 4% with “other”. That 4% looks pretty big right now as well. Another key race that may well determine the majority in the US Senate.

In small but critical New Hampshire Obama maintains a slight lead, which is also down from the last Marist survey, and within the polling margin of error. Obama leads 49% to 47%, with 3% undecided, and 1% with “other”. The President’s job approval is at 48%/48%, while his favorable/unfavorable is at 50%/46%, while Romney is at 49%/46%. One other note is the NH right track/wrong track question, which is at 42% right track, 53% wrong track. That is a negative for Barack Obama in light of the tightness of this race. In NH the President leads with women by a whopping 16%. For all the talk of closing the gender gap it appears that if Barack Obama does win re-election then one of the major pillars of that effort would be his support with women. New Hampshire is real close, and remains a true toss-up state.

The New Hampshire Governor’s race shows Democrat Maggie Hassan beginning to open up a little distance between herself and Ovide Lamontagne, the Republican. Hassan leads with likely voters by a 49% to 44% margin, with 6% undecided. A Hassan victory here appears likely.

The survey shows that 10% of the respondents in NH had voted early, and with that group the President leads by a 56% to 42% margin.

I had moved NH from toss-up to Obama on my last map, but you can see it will be a very tight race there. I also have Wisconsin in the Obama column, but I feel more confident there. I did not talk about the third leg of this story, Iowa, because I see that as being a bit out of reach for Romney.

Even with the very small margins I am sure the Romney folks will call into question the “methodology” of these polls. Democrats over-sampled, likely voter screen too strong/weak, pollster’s mother is a Democrat, and on and on we go. In light of all of these objections I have searched for a poll that would be considered “properly sampled” by Republicans, and I believe I have found it. It is the survey that shows Mitt Romney in the lead. Unfortunately that survey is not from Ohio.

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Back to the Electoral Map

Posted on October 31, 2012 by billmanzi

It is time to re-visit the electoral map. I have made my first changes, which include moving Virginia from toss-up to Barack Obama, moving FLA from Romney to toss-up, and moving NH from toss-up to Barack Obama, My new map leaves President Obama at 294, Mitt Romney at 206, and toss up at 38. Without Ohio I just don’t see the path to victory for Mitt Romney.

New polling data from Quinnipiac in the critical swing state of Ohio has Barack Obama up by 5, at 50% to 45%. The Romney desperation in Ohio is reflected in the dishonest attacks he has launched on the auto bailout issue, which should tell you all you need to know about where Romney thinks he stands in that state. The only thing left for Romney supporters is to question the Quinnipiac methodology. Good luck with that. I guess we will find out about that methodology on Tuesday, which is really the only poll that counts.

In FLA Quinnipiac has Obama ahead by a 48%-47% margin. Romney sees some trouble here, as he has scheduled some FLA time as part of his final push. Since the Romney surge after the first debate the President has been inching his way back in FLA, and it is competitive enough to move it back to toss-up. As a Dem I would want to believe that the President can pull this out, but it is still at least toss-up (leans Romney). If Romney loses FLA then it is obviously game, set, and match for the President.

In Virginia Quinnipiac has the President up by 2 at 49% to 47%. I move it to the President because I see the state trending Democratic, including a wider lead for Tim Kaine in the U.S. Senate race. (50% to 46% against George Allen). If Romney loses Ohio then Virginia is a must-win state for him. Resources will be poured in by all, because this state remains vital for both parties.

Colorado is as close as can be. I give the slightest edge to the President, but it is so close that whoever does a better job on the ground will win. The RCP average of polling here has it as a dead heat.

And so here is the link to my new map. More changes will come, and I will leave no toss-ups on my final map.

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The Song is Over- Warren Opens Lead on Brown in Suffolk Survey

Posted on October 30, 2012 by billmanzi

Just as the Globe released a new poll yesterday on the Senate race David Paleologos and Suffolk have hit the streets with their own numbers. It is not good news for Scott Brown. From the Suffolk press release:

“Elizabeth Warren is riding a final wave of momentum to the U.S. Senate,” said David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center in Boston. “Unless something drastically changes in the final days before the election, you will be hearing the title ‘Senator-elect’ Warren instead of ‘Professor’ Warren.”

The numbers please.

Warren leads Brown by a 53% to 46% margin, with 1% undecided. Suffolk is reflecting the trend we have seen in all but the latest Globe poll, which is Warren moving into “comfortable lead” territory. This 7% margin is the largest I have seen, and gives Warren a lead outside of the margin of error. It may be time to chalk this one up.

How did we get here? The favorable/unfavorable numbers for Brown are, by memory, the worst I have seen. Brown is at 45%/42%, while Elizabeth Warren is at 51%/36%. Lets look at the numbers I think are important! (Same ones we highlighted for the Globe survey)

1) Independents. Brown leads Warren here by a 54% to 43% margin, substantially below where he needs to be to win the race. He is off by 20%, and obviously below the Globe number by a substantial margin. Scott Brown cannot win with that spread, and I do believe the Globe number is an outlier. Real bad news for Scott Brown.

2) Gender. Elizabeth Warren leads with women by 57% to 41%, a healthy 16% margin. Brown leads with men by 3%, 51% to 48%. More real bad news for Brown, as the effective campaign run by Warren has placed Brown on the defensive with women, forcing the Brown campaign to try to move that needle with a barrage of women-centric advertising. It does not appear to have worked.

3) Democrats. In a state with a wide registration advantage for Dems it is self evident that Brown must have crossover support. A huge part of his campaign message has been designed to win that Democratic support, as he has distanced himself from the Republican brand. Warren has countered Brown at every turn by reminding Democratic voters who Brown’s friends are in Washington. Jim Inhofe and Mitch McConnell are not very popular with Massachusetts Democrats. Warren’s campaign has managed to drive Democratic support for Brown, in this survey, down to 17%. It is another nail in the coffin.

I am not sure, with these numbers, why Scott Brown would not be debating as much as he could. This song is over.

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WCAP Podcast

Posted on October 30, 2012 by billmanzi

It was great to join Teddy Panos, Mara Dolan, and Todd Robbins on the big morning show on 980 am WCAP this past Friday, and every Friday morning. I always have a great time, and we are able to have a pretty good discussion of national, state, and even local events as they arise. For all of you folks who use twitter you can follow Mara Dolan @maradolan, Teddy Panos @tedpanos, and me @billmanzi. Teddy and I have been known to have some great twitter wars, so please look all of us up. WCAP can be followed @980wcap. Follow local football? Then get on twitter and follow @pigskinpresspas. Looking forward to chatting with the gang Friday.

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Globe Poll Has Senate Dead Heat

Posted on October 30, 2012 by billmanzi

A new Boston Globe survey has Scott Brown with a slight lead over Elizabeth Warren. The results were published yesterday, and I have just bumped into the top-line numbers this morning. Those numbers please!

Scott Brown leads Elizabeth Warren by a 45% to 43% margin, with 12% undecided. When the “leaners” are included the race breaks out as 47% each, with 6% undecided. Most surveys as of late have had Elizabeth Warren leading by about 5%, and we have looked at what I consider to be the three key numbers.

1) Independents

2) Democrats (or Obama voters) voting for Scott Brown.

3) The Elizabeth Warren edge with women

The campaign has essentially been fought out on those three fronts. What does this Globe survey show? With independents the Globe has Scott Brown up by a whopping 39%. I have harped on that number in past postings on this race because it was the key to the Scott Brown win against Martha Coakley. The prior surveys that have shown Brown as behind have this margin as substantially smaller. If Brown wins indies by 39% he will be difficult to beat.

Democrats are shown in this survey to be supporting Brown with 13% of the vote (Obama supporters at 14%). Even in this survey the Warren campaign success with peeling off Democratic support from Brown is evident. We have seen some surveys with Brown at 24% Democratic support. That number has been going in the right direction for Elizabeth Warren.

Warren only leads Brown by a 47% to 40% margin with women, while trailing with men by 50% to 39%. It is the second reason for the slight Brown lead in this survey. Warren needs a slightly larger margin with women, especially if she were to lose indie voters by a wide margin.

As we get close to the end the survey I will look for (of course) will be the final Suffolk poll, with the bellwether data included. The bellwether survey has been extremely reliable, and I hope one is forthcoming from Suffolk.

On the ballot questions the so called “physician assisted suicide”, (question 2) leads by a 47% to 37% margin, with 16% undecided. There has been some spending on the vote no side so this question still has an opportunity to be defeated, but time is slipping away. On question 3 (medicinal marijuana) the yes side leads by a wide margin, with 63% in favor of allowing marijuana dispensaries for medicinal purposes, and 28% opposed (9% undecided). You can chalk that one up. Question 3 will pass, and by a wide margin, even with the institutional opposition it has engendered.

The Globe survey has a margin of error of +/- 4.1%.

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Your Heart is as Black as Night- Melody Gardot

Posted on October 29, 2012 by billmanzi

A couple of weeks back I highlighted the great cover by Beth Hart and Joe Bonamassa of the song “Your Heart is as Black as Night”. This is the original, by the woman who wrote the song, Melody Gardot. And it is a scorcher! Enjoy the hurricane to this classic.

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Desperado- Romney Circus Acrobatics on Auto Bailout

Posted on October 29, 2012 by billmanzi

It is unfortunately true that campaigns of all stripes take liberties with the truth, but Mitt Romney has really pressed the outer limits with the ad below. Romney has been taking heavy fire in Ohio for his position on the auto bailout, and has desperately tried to obfuscate his original position. Even respected Republicans like Mike Murphy have tried the duck and dodge on it, but the truth, in this case, is hard for Romney to run away from. Lets review.

Mitt Romney wrote an op-ed for the New York Times that said “Let Detroit Go Bankrupt”. Since the political winds have shifted Romney has made several claims in an attempt to backtrack from that op-ed. What has he said?

1) There is no difference between his position and the Obama position because they were both for “managed bankruptcy”. In fact Barack Obama did put them through managed bankruptcy, but along with George W. Bush provided the liquidity that allowed them to exit bankruptcy and continue as going concerns. Mitt Romney opposed providing the necessary finance, and said so quite explicitly in the op-ed.

Detroit needs a turnaround, not a check.

Why the government? President Bush, and then President Obama, were faced with frozen capital markets. Under normal circumstances private equity might have been available, but as everyone knows (and Mitt Romney hopes we forget)the circumstances were not normal, and private finance was just not available. If the Government did not provide the finance then GM and Chrysler were simply going to disappear, and take about a million jobs with them. Our heartland would have been decimated, and we would have not only lost the jobs, but the type of jobs that have moved so many into the middle class.

2) Romney keeps insisting that he was for “government assistance” for the automakers. He has insisted that his op-ed piece shows this, and that the Obama campaign is misrepresenting his desire to help Detroit. And since the President rebutted Romney in a clumsy way in one of the debates Romney is using the fact checkers to buttress his claim. Nothing could be further from the truth. Romney has cited his call for “federal guarantees” for the automakers as proof of his willingness to help. What did he say?

The federal government should provide guarantees for post-bankruptcy financing and assure car buyers that their warranties are not at risk.

In a managed bankruptcy, the federal government would propel newly competitive and viable automakers, rather than seal their fate with a bailout check.

When Romney and the President were mixing it up in debate Romney said he offered “guarantees”, and I believe the President rebutted him, equating “guarantees” with direct financial aid (bailout checks). Romney is correct. He offered to guarantee private finance that did not exist (see above). Guaranteeing a non-existent loan is not help, and his stated position, that he would not give “bailout checks”, tells us all we need to know about his willingness to save those American companies, and the one million jobs for American workers in Ohio, Michigan, and the American heartland. He can try to change, hide, or bob and weave, but the truth is there for all to see. Mitt Romney would have allowed Chrysler and GM to go under.

As far as the latest Romney claim that Chrysler would be moving Jeep production to China it is another falsehood. He has made that claim on the campaign stump,claiming Chrysler was moving all Jeep production to China, and doubled down on it in this ad. Chrysler itself has rebutted the claim, on its own website.

Despite clear and accurate reporting, the take has given birth to a number of stories making readers believe that Chrysler plans to shift all Jeep production to China from North America, and therefore idle assembly lines and U.S. workforce. It is a leap that would be difficult even for professional circus acrobats.

Let’s set the record straight: Jeep has no intention of shifting production of its Jeep models out of North America to China. It’s simply reviewing the opportunities to return Jeep output to China for the world’s largest auto market. U.S. Jeep assembly lines will continue to stay in operation. A careful and unbiased reading of the Bloomberg take would have saved unnecessary fantasies and extravagant comments.

Professional circus acrobats have nothing on the Mitt Romney campaign, especially on the auto bailout. He knows how badly this issue is hurting him in Ohio, and his desperation shows. This is a four Pinocchio claim if there ever was one.

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Does Boehner Want to Go Over the Cliff if Obama Re-Elected?

Posted on October 27, 2012 by billmanzi

As the elections come close we are all focused on the results, and on who might control the U.S. House and Senate, as well as the Presidency. If President Obama is re-elected the lame duck session of Congress will be dealing with the so called fiscal cliff, with the expiration of the Bush tax cuts and the impending “sequestration cuts” arising from the failure of the so called super committee. So the country is faced with tax increases for all, and a deep cut in spending at the same time, taking critical dollars out of the economy. Some data from the Congressional Budget Office:

Taken together, CBO estimates, those policies will reduce the federal budget deficit by $607 billion, or 4.0 percent of gross domestic product (GDP), between fiscal years 2012 and 2013. The resulting weakening of the economy will lower taxable incomes and raise unemployment, generating a reduction in tax revenues and an increase in spending on such items as unemployment insurance. With that economic feedback incorporated, the deficit will drop by $560 billion between fiscal years 2012 and 2013, CBO projects.

Congressional Republicans would be delighted with the spending cuts, except for the defense sequester, which is raising howls of protest from the neo-con/Republican defense hawks. So the Republicans want to roll back ALL of the cuts, in the hopes of saving the defense spending. So much for Republican deficit cutting bona-fides. But I digress. Lets look at the politics.

The Democrats have dug in pretty hard on the extension of the Bush tax cuts for the top earners. The Republicans have dug in pretty hard as well, opposing any attempts to raise rates on those top earners. Republicans have had the advantage legislatively up to this point, and forced through a full extension of the Bush tax cuts that the President signed in 2010. That extension was for two years, and I do believe that Barack Obama, if re-elected, will be able to get the Bush tax cuts extended for all but the top earners. How will he do that? I think it will be done in cooperation with House Speaker John Boehner.

Speaker Boehner has recognized that any grand bargain on the budget/deficit will require additional revenues. His willingness to accept up to $800 billion (ten year number)in new revenue during his negotiations with President Obama drew howls of protest from his own Republican caucus, and was one of the reasons that the negotiations failed. Boehner was pushed around by Leader Cantor on the issue, and the President was pushed around by Democratic Congressional leaders. Since Boehner can agree to nothing that would cede ground on the Bush tax cuts for the top tier there is no realistic way to reach agreement on extension in the lame duck session, short of agreeing to kick the can down the road for a few months. That will be a difficult sell in the U.S. Senate. There is no time for tax code reform that would raise money (Boehner’s preferred methodology)since that work could take a year. The Democrats hold two cards (defense spending, and the Bush top tier tax cuts) and will not give them up lightly. What is a Republican to do?

If the President is re-elected then my guess is that a phony lame duck session negotiation will fail, followed by a plunge off the cliff, and a “quick” deal that extends the Bush tax cuts for all but the top, restores the defense sequester, pays lip service to tax reform by ordering the appropriate Congressional Committees to produce a reform package within a prescribed period that could simplify and lower marginal rates (Simpson-Bowles), and gives Republicans additional (domestic) spending cuts as well as some (future) deal on entitlements (to correspond with tax reform package) Still a tough deal for Boehner, but he can sell the tax package as a “tax cut” after the plunge off the cliff, and may be able to deliver some immediate and painful spending cuts that his caucus is salivating for. Ultimately he will tell his caucus that the issue was decided by Obama winning re-election, and that they have to take the best deal they can get. The Democrats do not hold all the cards, as the debt ceiling will need to be increased, and that will be a major source of Republican leverage. That will be a part of this negotiation, as the government will likely hit the existing debt ceiling in the first quarter of 2013. Talk about a fiscal cliff. This is the Grand Canyon. Can a deal be reached without initially going over the cliff? Absolutely possible, but just so much more difficult for John Boehner. But he will extract some real spending concessions from a newly elected President Obama in the process, and there will be a deal, because there has to be a deal.

So what happens if there is a President Mitt Romney? Oh boy, that has to be another post.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/video/videoEmbed.html?uuid=e00f04d0-0f2f-11e2-bb5e-492c0d30bff6

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CEO's Call For Budget Action to Battle Debt

Posted on October 26, 2012 by billmanzi

A powerful group of big business CEO’s, under the leadership of Erskine Bowles and Alan Simpson, of Simpson-Bowles fame, has sent a letter calling for a solution to the debt and deficit problem in the United States. The letter calls for deficit reduction through spending cuts and revenue increases. Of course the notable news is that business leaders accept the need for additional revenues, and in fact say that solving the deficit cannot be done with just spending cuts. (CEO’s understand math.)

The CEOs who signed the manifesto deem tax increases inevitable no matter which party succeeds at the polls in November. “There is no possible way; you can do the arithmetic a million different ways” to avoid raising taxes, said Mark Bertolini, CEO of Aetna. “You can’t tax your way to fix this problem, and you can’t cut entitlements enough to fix this problem.”

Before Democrats start clicking their heels in joy at the capitulation of business leaders to economic reality it should be noted that entitlement reform is part of the letter as well. The CEO’s, as you might expect from a group put together by Alan Simpson and Erskine Bowles, largely support the Bowles-Simpson framework, which includes entitlement reform that has been rejected by many Democrats. Under that framework revenue increases are driven by tax reform that broadens the tax base but reduces marginal tax rates, as well as the corporate tax rate. The CEO’s took no position on any specific policy proposal, including President Obama’s call for higher tax rates on top earners.

Blowback? You bet! First from the right, as Grover Norquist slammed the effort. From the Wall Street Journal:

“When bipartisan deals are struck promising to cut spending and raise taxes, the spending cuts don’t materialize but the tax hikes do,” Grover Norquist of the anti-tax Americans for Tax Reform, has said.

And Bernie Sanders of Vermont hit from the left. From the Sanders web page:

Sen. Bernie Sanders said corporate leaders should look in the mirror before lecturing the American people on ways to tackle the deficit. After the heads of more than 80 big companies issued a statement Thursday on deficit reduction, Sanders released a report detailing how many of the companies headed by the same CEOs have avoided taxes, sent American jobs overseas and took taxpayer bailouts. “There really is no shame,” Sanders said. “The Wall Street leaders whose recklessness and illegal behavior caused this terrible recession are now lecturing the American people on the need for courage to deal with the nation’s finances and deficit crisis. Before telling us why we should cut Social Security, Medicare and other vitally important programs, these CEOs might want to take a hard look at their responsibility for causing the deficit and this terrible recession.”

I can just imagine that the lame duck session of Congress will be a difficult one, regardless of who wins the Presidency. The fiscal cliff lies ahead.

The Wall Street Journal article, with a link to the full letter, is here.

Here is the list of CEO’s who participated.

http://live.wsj.com/public/page/embed-1EC68EC0_96A0_4BE2_8687_8C330C20E2F2.html

http://plus.cnbc.com/rssvideosearch/action/player/id/3000124728/code/cnbcplayershare

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The Map Stays the Same

Posted on October 26, 2012 by billmanzi

I have promised to offer revisions once a week to the electoral map I have created from 270towin.com, and do so now. I have made no changes from last week, but that is not to say that there has not been some movement.

It is tempting to switch Virginia from undecided to Romney, as I see some movement towards him there. That may have to wait for a few days. CO remains in play and very tight, with Gary Johnson potentially playing a spoiler role there, polling as high as 4% in some surveys. That may change the outcome there, and on that basis I leave it as a toss-up. The other toss-up state on my map, NH, may be tilting slightly to Obama, but it is still too close to change.

The elephant in the room remains Ohio, where both campaigns are directing enormous resources. I leave Ohio in the Obama camp, but it is truly only “lean Democratic”. In the final analysis I still believe that Obama wins Ohio, and if that happens I just don’t see a path to victory for Romney.

FLA, while painted red on my map, is still in play, and attracting Democratic resources, which means the Dems believe they have a chance. A win by Obama in FLA will bring down the curtain on Mitt Romney.

I think the other key is Democratic turnout. Pollsters are showing Obama with greater strength among registered voters, and Romney with greater strength among likely voters. That difference is scaring Democrats, and producing a big get out the vote effort. The ground game must produce turnout numbers that are close to 2008, or it could be a long night for Democrats.

The Manzi total, as of today, leaves Barack Obama at 277, Romney at 235, and toss-up at 26. I await the map from Teddy Panos.

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