The Song is Over- Warren Opens Lead on Brown in Suffolk Survey

Just as the Globe released a new poll yesterday on the Senate race David Paleologos and Suffolk have hit the streets with their own numbers. It is not good news for Scott Brown. From the Suffolk press release:

“Elizabeth Warren is riding a final wave of momentum to the U.S. Senate,” said David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center in Boston. “Unless something drastically changes in the final days before the election, you will be hearing the title ‘Senator-elect’ Warren instead of ‘Professor’ Warren.”

The numbers please.

Warren leads Brown by a 53% to 46% margin, with 1% undecided. Suffolk is reflecting the trend we have seen in all but the latest Globe poll, which is Warren moving into “comfortable lead” territory. This 7% margin is the largest I have seen, and gives Warren a lead outside of the margin of error. It may be time to chalk this one up.

How did we get here? The favorable/unfavorable numbers for Brown are, by memory, the worst I have seen. Brown is at 45%/42%, while Elizabeth Warren is at 51%/36%. Lets look at the numbers I think are important! (Same ones we highlighted for the Globe survey)

1) Independents. Brown leads Warren here by a 54% to 43% margin, substantially below where he needs to be to win the race. He is off by 20%, and obviously below the Globe number by a substantial margin. Scott Brown cannot win with that spread, and I do believe the Globe number is an outlier. Real bad news for Scott Brown.

2) Gender. Elizabeth Warren leads with women by 57% to 41%, a healthy 16% margin. Brown leads with men by 3%, 51% to 48%. More real bad news for Brown, as the effective campaign run by Warren has placed Brown on the defensive with women, forcing the Brown campaign to try to move that needle with a barrage of women-centric advertising. It does not appear to have worked.

3) Democrats. In a state with a wide registration advantage for Dems it is self evident that Brown must have crossover support. A huge part of his campaign message has been designed to win that Democratic support, as he has distanced himself from the Republican brand. Warren has countered Brown at every turn by reminding Democratic voters who Brown’s friends are in Washington. Jim Inhofe and Mitch McConnell are not very popular with Massachusetts Democrats. Warren’s campaign has managed to drive Democratic support for Brown, in this survey, down to 17%. It is another nail in the coffin.

I am not sure, with these numbers, why Scott Brown would not be debating as much as he could. This song is over.

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