Elizabeth Warren Holds Lead in New Survey

Posted on October 24, 2012 by billmanzi

Elizabeth Warren, in a new MassInc/WBUR survey, is holding a five point lead over Senator Scott Brown. The last MassInc survey had Senator Brown holding a four point lead over the challenger. The new survey seems to be in line with most other surveys showing this race moving in Elizabeth Warren’s direction. The numbers please!

Both candidates are now registering positive favorability ratings that are in the same neighborhood. Warren stands at 49%/39% (favorable/unfavorable) and Brown is at 49%/38%. Despite trailing in this survey Brown is still a popular figure in Massachusetts, although not as popular as when this race started. Mitt Romney is upside down on favorability, coming in at 38%/54%, while Barack Obama is at 58%/35%.

The head to head match-up has Elizabeth Warren leading by a 48% to 43% margin, with 7% undecided and 1% third party. When so called “leaners” are thrown in Warren hits 50% to Brown’s 44%, with 4% undecided. Those are very encouraging numbers for Elizabeth Warren, and have to be somewhat discouraging for Scott Brown.

The cross-tabs give Elizabeth Warren some additional good news, and in my view show the basis for her lead. With women Warren has opened up a wide lead, winning that group by 13%, 52% to 39%. She only trails with men by 2%, so Brown is not making up that wide gap with females. With independents, the key to the Scott Brown victory over Martha Coakley, Brown leads by 52% to 39% (same as the Warren lead with women). That 13% lead is far below what he achieved in the Coakley win, and far below what he will need in this race.

Scott Brown is getting 90% support from Republicans, while Warren is getting 77% support from Democrats. A major focus of the Warren campaign has been to peel back Democratic support for Scott Brown. Brown is at 14% Democratic support in this survey, below the 24% number I have seen in other surveys. The Warren strategy is paying some dividends, and is another key reason for her lead.

This race is not over by any means, but Elizabeth Warren has to like where she sits today.

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Mourdock's Outrageous Comments on Rape

Posted on October 24, 2012 by billmanzi

Candidate for U.S. Senate in Indiana Richard Mourdock issued some controversial statements during a debate with his opponent. He said that even where a pregnancy occurred due to rape it was likely God’s will. From the Detroit Free Press:

“Life is that gift from God. I think that even when life begins in that horrible situation of rape, that it is something God intended to happen,” Mourdock said, his voice thick with emotion.

Mitt Romney immediately distanced himself from the Mourdock comments, saying:

“Gov. Romney disagrees with Richard Mourdock’s comments, and they do not reflect his views,” said Andrea Saul, a spokeswoman for Romney’s campaign.

But Mitt Romney just issued a ringing endorsement of Mourdock, which the Democratic National Committee will not soon let him forget. The DNC issued a video showing the Romney endorsement, and linking the two together. The Romney campaign has been trying to close the gender gap so this controversy could not come at a worse time for them. Look for additional Democratic attacks linking Romney with Mourdock, as well as with the Republican candidate for Senate in Misssouri Todd Akin, as they try to widen that gap.

A final note on this is the huge benefit that Democrats have accrued from the choices made by Republican primary voters. You could make a reasonable argument that Republicans could have taken over the U.S. Senate in the last cycle were it not for blowing safe seat pickups in Nevada and Delaware, among others. They have continued on that path this year by nominating Akin and Mourdock. And they may well have dealt a big blow to Mitt Romney as well. Keep up the good work!

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Elizabeth Warren Visits Methuen

Posted on October 24, 2012 by billmanzi

Elizabeth Warren visited Methuen yesterday, stopping at Mann’s and greeting a big group of supporters, and accepting the endorsements of Mayor Steve Zanni and Rep. Linda Campbell. It was great to see Elizabeth in Methuen, talking about helping the middle class, creating jobs, and making sure that common sense regulation of Wall Street prevents the type of financial meltdown that occurred during the administration of President George W. Bush. It is going to be a close race, with plenty of money being spent coming down the stretch. Warren told folks in Methuen that she has no fear of the onslaught that is sure to come, and knowing her record I can assure you that fear is not part of her makeup.

Warren in Methuen

E. Warren in Methuen

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The Big Debate

Posted on October 23, 2012 by billmanzi

I had a great time debating Al DiNuccio on AM Jive this morning, with Jamie Atkinson, George Scione, and Seth Graham. Getting a Republican to agree that Obama Care was good legislation has to be considered a feather in my debating cap. Thanks to the AM Jive Team.

http://www.blogtalkradio.com/btrplayer.swf

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The Foreign Policy Debate

Posted on October 23, 2012 by billmanzi

The third and final debate between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney was held last night. The full debate is below. Polling showed that the President “won” the debate, and I do agree. But what else, if anything, was at play? The speculation please!

Mitt Romney, as has been his history, essentially took a u-turn on policy. That should surprise no one. But the u-turn, as on domestic policy, was towards the center and away from the neo-con dogma that he has been embracing as a candidate. We learn that even Mitt Romney has come to understand that the neo-con philosophy of bombing just about everyone is not acceptable to the American public. He more often than not agreed with the President, and disagreed on the margins. The President was aggressive throughout, and seemed determined to correct and criticize Romney. Mitt Romney is really moving to attempt to close the gender gap, and to appeal to independents. As much as Mitt Romney has been fundamentally dishonest in his approach to issues, both foreign and domestic, it is clear that his campaign etch-a-sketch is having a positive impact for him. (See todays post on Ohio polling by Suffolk)

Does the Romney demeanor tell us anything else? It may be that both campaigns, through internal polling, see the race moving in Mitt Romney’s direction. That is speculation, but the Romney folks appear to like the current trajectory. I believe the Romney centrist, easy approach here is reflective of their new confidence. The President is still trying to make up for that first debate, and will not have folks saying he was asleep during debate three. But without question the Obama folks do not like the current track, and the President’s demeanor, beyond making up for debate 1, may reflect the campaign’s view that they need to stop Romney momentum. Speculation, but worth a thought.

In the end last night’s debate, even if won by Obama, will not move the political needle all that much, if at all. It is all about the ground game now, and for Obama driving Democratic turnout. All eyes look towards Ohio.

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Suffolk in Ohio

Posted on October 22, 2012 by billmanzi

David Paleologos and Suffolk University today released a new poll on the very key swing state of Ohio. Suffolk has this race in a dead heat at 47% each. Suffolk does not have an earlier Ohio poll to compare with, so lets get right to it. The numbers please!

Barack Obama and Mitt Romney register identical favorable ratings 50%/46% for Obama, vs 50%/45% for Romney. On job approval Barack Obama is at 50%/47%. He remains above water on those key polling questions, as does Mitt Romney. On the head to head question the candidates are tied at 47%, with three other candidates each gathering 1%, and 3% undecided.

The Suffolk poll had 20% of the respondents as having voted early. With that group President Obama leads by a 54% to 41% margin. For those who have not yet voted Romney leads Obama by a 48% to 45% margin. A major source of problem for Obama, in my opinion, is the number with independents, where Romney leads in this survey by 20%, 50% to 30%. Suffolk shows the gender gap, with Obama leading with women by 12%, but trailing with men by 12%. The red flag for Obama in all of this is that independent number, which could bring down the house for him if it stands like that on election day.

So in this key state the President has clearly fallen back, and both PPP and Suffolk show that slippage. The Paleologos number, with the President at 47%, puts him in the polling danger zone for incumbents. So while my pal Ted Panos over at 980 WCAP crows about that I am not quite ready to move Ohio over to Romney. My map changes will come on Thursday, and I look forward to the Panos Map, as he has taken me up on the 2012 Electoral Map Challenge. Ohio will need a huge turnout operation by the Obama team in order to win. His ground operation is superior, and he will need every bit of it to pull out Ohio.

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Gallup on Party Sampling

Posted on October 22, 2012 by billmanzi

Frank Newport, the editor in chief at Gallup, talks about his latest national tracking survey, which shows Mitt Romney with a national 7 point lead. At about the six minute mark Newport talks about how surveys deal with “party identification” in assessing survey methodology. It has been a huge bone of contention, with those folks objecting to results pointing to over or under representation for “their side” or the “other side” in the polling universe.Newport deals with this issue head on. An interesting question for our friend David Paleologos.

http://video.foxnews.com/v/embed.js?id=1916262959001&w=466&h=263Watch the latest video at video.foxnews.com

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Not One of Us. Firewall Ohio Part Two

Posted on October 22, 2012 by billmanzi

As mentioned in the earlier post President Obama is in a tight battle in Ohio. He will not be leaving any weapons in the drawer. Below is his latest ad in Ohio, which closes by saying that Mitt Romney is “not one of us”. The auto bailout, and the opposition to it by Mitt Romney, may be the key to the President holding Ohio. The President will not be letting the voters of Ohio forget the Romney position, and you can expect more of the same for the next 2 weeks. I bet Mitt Romney wishes he had that New York Times op-ed back now.

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Firewall Ohio

Posted on October 22, 2012 by billmanzi

A new CBS/Quinnipiac Ohio poll shows the Barack Obama lead in Ohio diminishing, dropping from 10% down to 5%. Obama leads in Ohio by a 50% to 45% margin, with 3% undecided. The September margin had Obama in the lead at 53% to 43%, with 3% undecided. What lies under the hood? The numbers please!

As with other key states early voting is showing some evidence of a strong Obama ground game. 20% of Ohio voters reported already having voted, and in that group President Obama leads by a 54% to 39% margin. With voters planning on going to the polls on election day the President leads by a 49% to 47% margin. Early voting is having a big impact, and with polling evidence showing more Republican enthusiasm than Democratic enthusiasm there is some real question about whether the President’s turnout operation will be able to match what was achieved in 2008. His election fortunes may in fact rest on that issue.

A big national battle has occurred over women, with both parties fighting hard over this big group of votes. This survey has President Obama winning with women by 55% to 40%, which might seem impressive, but which is down from a 60% to 35% margin in September. Another interesting piece is the elderly demographic (65+), where Romney leads by 7%. The September survey had President Obama with a 1% lead. We have not heard much about Medicare lately, and the Romney campaign seems to have blunted the Obama attack on that issue, at least in Ohio.

The Romney team is citing “momentum”, with some of his surrogates talking about a 300 vote electoral college victory. I have to say that that victory dance seems a little bit premature. I had contemplated moving Ohio out of the Obama column on the Manzi electoral map, but the Quinnipiac poll has dissuaded me. I leave the map as I had it last Thursday evening, with President Obama at 277 Electoral Votes, Mitt Romney with 235, and toss-up at 26. As mentioned earlier my map gives FLA and NC to Romney, and leaves Virginia as a toss-up. Giving Virginia to Romney (which would comport with the David Paleologos prediction of several weeks ago)would still only bring Romney to 248. Ohio remains the key. I can’t wait for the Suffolk numbers out of Ohio.

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Tina Brown on the Future of Print Media

Posted on October 21, 2012 by billmanzi

Tina Brown talks about the end of Newsweek in print edition. That is such a huge change in American journalism, but it has not gotten a lot of attention. Newsweek will, from now on, be digital only. Is this the future of journalism? We have seen the changes across the spectrum of print, with daily newspapers and traditional magazines struggling with the new economic landscape. Is digital media where we are all going to be in the years ahead? Is the new media paradigm even known yet? Do pay firewalls work for media outlets? The changes at Newsweek are reflective of so much of what has happened to the American media market over the past ten years. What comes next?

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/32545640

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