It is time to re-visit the electoral map. I have made my first changes, which include moving Virginia from toss-up to Barack Obama, moving FLA from Romney to toss-up, and moving NH from toss-up to Barack Obama, My new map leaves President Obama at 294, Mitt Romney at 206, and toss up at 38. Without Ohio I just don’t see the path to victory for Mitt Romney.
New polling data from Quinnipiac in the critical swing state of Ohio has Barack Obama up by 5, at 50% to 45%. The Romney desperation in Ohio is reflected in the dishonest attacks he has launched on the auto bailout issue, which should tell you all you need to know about where Romney thinks he stands in that state. The only thing left for Romney supporters is to question the Quinnipiac methodology. Good luck with that. I guess we will find out about that methodology on Tuesday, which is really the only poll that counts.
In FLA Quinnipiac has Obama ahead by a 48%-47% margin. Romney sees some trouble here, as he has scheduled some FLA time as part of his final push. Since the Romney surge after the first debate the President has been inching his way back in FLA, and it is competitive enough to move it back to toss-up. As a Dem I would want to believe that the President can pull this out, but it is still at least toss-up (leans Romney). If Romney loses FLA then it is obviously game, set, and match for the President.
In Virginia Quinnipiac has the President up by 2 at 49% to 47%. I move it to the President because I see the state trending Democratic, including a wider lead for Tim Kaine in the U.S. Senate race. (50% to 46% against George Allen). If Romney loses Ohio then Virginia is a must-win state for him. Resources will be poured in by all, because this state remains vital for both parties.
Colorado is as close as can be. I give the slightest edge to the President, but it is so close that whoever does a better job on the ground will win. The RCP average of polling here has it as a dead heat.
And so here is the link to my new map. More changes will come, and I will leave no toss-ups on my final map.