The Map Stays the Same

I have promised to offer revisions once a week to the electoral map I have created from 270towin.com, and do so now. I have made no changes from last week, but that is not to say that there has not been some movement.

It is tempting to switch Virginia from undecided to Romney, as I see some movement towards him there. That may have to wait for a few days. CO remains in play and very tight, with Gary Johnson potentially playing a spoiler role there, polling as high as 4% in some surveys. That may change the outcome there, and on that basis I leave it as a toss-up. The other toss-up state on my map, NH, may be tilting slightly to Obama, but it is still too close to change.

The elephant in the room remains Ohio, where both campaigns are directing enormous resources. I leave Ohio in the Obama camp, but it is truly only “lean Democratic”. In the final analysis I still believe that Obama wins Ohio, and if that happens I just don’t see a path to victory for Romney.

FLA, while painted red on my map, is still in play, and attracting Democratic resources, which means the Dems believe they have a chance. A win by Obama in FLA will bring down the curtain on Mitt Romney.

I think the other key is Democratic turnout. Pollsters are showing Obama with greater strength among registered voters, and Romney with greater strength among likely voters. That difference is scaring Democrats, and producing a big get out the vote effort. The ground game must produce turnout numbers that are close to 2008, or it could be a long night for Democrats.

The Manzi total, as of today, leaves Barack Obama at 277, Romney at 235, and toss-up at 26. I await the map from Teddy Panos.

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