Globe Poll Has Senate Dead Heat

A new Boston Globe survey has Scott Brown with a slight lead over Elizabeth Warren. The results were published yesterday, and I have just bumped into the top-line numbers this morning. Those numbers please!

Scott Brown leads Elizabeth Warren by a 45% to 43% margin, with 12% undecided. When the “leaners” are included the race breaks out as 47% each, with 6% undecided. Most surveys as of late have had Elizabeth Warren leading by about 5%, and we have looked at what I consider to be the three key numbers.

1) Independents

2) Democrats (or Obama voters) voting for Scott Brown.

3) The Elizabeth Warren edge with women

The campaign has essentially been fought out on those three fronts. What does this Globe survey show? With independents the Globe has Scott Brown up by a whopping 39%. I have harped on that number in past postings on this race because it was the key to the Scott Brown win against Martha Coakley. The prior surveys that have shown Brown as behind have this margin as substantially smaller. If Brown wins indies by 39% he will be difficult to beat.

Democrats are shown in this survey to be supporting Brown with 13% of the vote (Obama supporters at 14%). Even in this survey the Warren campaign success with peeling off Democratic support from Brown is evident. We have seen some surveys with Brown at 24% Democratic support. That number has been going in the right direction for Elizabeth Warren.

Warren only leads Brown by a 47% to 40% margin with women, while trailing with men by 50% to 39%. It is the second reason for the slight Brown lead in this survey. Warren needs a slightly larger margin with women, especially if she were to lose indie voters by a wide margin.

As we get close to the end the survey I will look for (of course) will be the final Suffolk poll, with the bellwether data included. The bellwether survey has been extremely reliable, and I hope one is forthcoming from Suffolk.

On the ballot questions the so called “physician assisted suicide”, (question 2) leads by a 47% to 37% margin, with 16% undecided. There has been some spending on the vote no side so this question still has an opportunity to be defeated, but time is slipping away. On question 3 (medicinal marijuana) the yes side leads by a wide margin, with 63% in favor of allowing marijuana dispensaries for medicinal purposes, and 28% opposed (9% undecided). You can chalk that one up. Question 3 will pass, and by a wide margin, even with the institutional opposition it has engendered.

The Globe survey has a margin of error of +/- 4.1%.

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