President Obama Plays Offense

Posted on June 30, 2011 by billmanzi

The President held a press conference yesterday, ratcheting up his rhetoric against Republicans on the issue of raising the debt ceiling. The President appeared to draw a line in the sand over Republican refusal to include any revenues in a prospective deficit cutting deal that would raise the debt ceiling. Obama raised several issues of note, hitting the Republicans for not being willing to employ a “balanced” approach to deficit reduction. He continually waived the issue of tax breaks for the owners of corporate jets in the face of Republicans, contrasting their willingness to cut programs for students and safety with their unwillingness to get rid of these types of tax breaks for millionaires and billionaires.

The President mocked the work habits of the Congress, saying that he is in Washington working towards a deal on deficit reduction while Congress is frequently out of session. He seemed to be responding to the charges that he has not been “engaged” on this issue. Anytime you hit the work habits of Congress it has to be a winning argument. From Politico:

After three straight lopsided elections, Congress still can’t — or won’t — function.

Just 18 bills have become law through the first half of 2011, and 15 of those named a building after someone, temporarily extended expiring laws or appointed an official to the board of the Smithsonian Institution. Congress can’t decide what to do on critical issues like Libya, spending or the nation’s debt limit, and no compromise is in sight on a host of other issues.

The President comparing Congressional work habits to his daughters homework habits will not be a big hit with Speaker Boehner, but it appears to be working, as the calls are going out for Congress to stay in session until a deal is reached. A more certain methodology would be to take away Congressional pay until such time as a deal was reached. Probably would have a deal by next week.

The President is going to take some heat from his base upon the announcement of this deal, which will likely contain some deep program cuts, potentially as high as a trillion dollars. Any deal that contains, as the Republicans demand, only spending cuts with no elimination of “tax expenditures”, will create a firestorm within the Democratic Party. The President, I think rightly, points out that any deal must impose pain on both parties to the deal. As my post on Governor Chris Christie yesterday points out, rigid inflexibility during political negotiations simply leads to gridlock. Such inflexibility is designed for political purposes, and to potentially move the end results of negotiations closer to a desired result. But it can be a dangerous game, as any deal must garner votes in Congress. The continuing inflexibility of Republicans on the issue of minor modifications to the tax code that will produce some revenue to go with large program cuts will make it that much harder to get the votes for a final deal, which must be completed because it is vital to the American people. The President cannot be expected to hold his tongue forever as he is pilloried by Republicans. The President is showing flexibility, and rejecting absolutist positions put forward by his negotiating partners. The Republicans need to take a page out of the Governor Christie playbook and move this negotiation forward for the good of the American people.

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Tale of Two Approaches

Posted on June 29, 2011 by billmanzi

Governor Chris Christie of New Jersey is taking a few victory laps after passing a pension and health care reform bill in New Jersey, reaching agreement with the Democratic legislature on a bill that had to be hard for them to swallow. Christie has made the rounds, appearing on Meet the Press and Morning Joe, talking not only of his legislative success, but laying out what he believes a CEO needs to do to move an agenda. Christie made a couple of points that I believe have value, regardless of Party affiliation.

1) Being the executive is substantially different than being a legislator. In order to move your agenda you must be involved, and “have skin in the game”. I truly believe Christie has that one exactly right. Either you are willing to expend some political capital or you will not get anything done. Christie’s actions on this latest New Jersey bill are instructive. He did 30 town hall style meetings across New Jersey, bluntly putting forward his best arguments for the bill. The Governor not only was willing to expend capital but to work hard to build public support for his position. The “work hard” part is often lost on public officials who wonder why they lose public policy fights.

2) Christie correctly points out that being “blunt” does not mean being inflexible. If you want to make public progress on tough issues you must realize that negotiations require give and take. The Governor talked in the Morning Joe segment about his change of heart on the sunset provision involved in this legislation. He gave way on that issue after indicating that he would not, striving to achieve the best deal he could under the circumstances. For all of you budding Mayors and City Managers out there learn an important lesson from Chris Christie here. Inflexibility means gridlock, and compromise moves important issues forward. Christie, for all of his bombast, has mastered the legislative process. It is true that such compromising sometimes subjects you to heavy criticism from both sides of an issue. But that is why political capital is accumulated. To be spent.

On another note Christie had some fun at the expense of Connecticut Governor Dan Malloy, who had been critical of Christie on the issue of labor relations. Malloy pointed to his own good relationship with the state employees of Connecticut, and built a budget that included a large tax hike and projected savings of $1.6 billion from union labor. That agreement, reached by Governor Malloy and the leadership of 15 unions, failed to win ratification by the rank and file, with the biggest state union voting against. Governor Malloy is now preparing to lay off about 7500 state workers, representing a staggering 16% of the overall workforce. This is a stunning turn of events, leaving the Governor in a difficult spot and quite frankly showing that the state workers in Connecticut just don’t get it. The refusal of this deal has to be amongst the single most self defeating acts in recent political history. Governor Christie will be very quick to remind folks (as he did on Morning Joe) that Governor Malloy increased taxes and got nothing in return.

A very good week for Chris Christie, earned through political smarts, flexibility, and hard work. Lessons to be learned for sure.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/32545640

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Pawlenty Channels His Inner Jimmy Carter

Posted on June 28, 2011 by billmanzi

Tim Pawlenty gave a major foreign policy speech at the Council on Foreign Relations today, talking in the broadest terms about support for democracy in the Middle East, criticizing the Obama Administration for not doing more to support the Arab Spring. He was also critical of Republicans who he claimed supported “isolationism”. Pawlenty, who has not exactly projected a tough image on the campaign trail, now seeks to curry favor with the neo-con wing of the Republican Party and show himself to be the foreign policy tough guy in the Republican field. He may be trying to be tough, but if this is the best he can do he is in a bit of trouble. Some of his more interesting assertions:

1) That the Iranian protests over the Presidential “re-election” of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad were ignored by the President, thereby giving tacit support to the mullahs. Pawlenty had no policy alternatives. If he is listening to Randy Scheunemann he probably would advocate immediate invasion. A bit snarky, but he offered no policy alternatives in this area.

2) He strongly criticized the Administration for their lack of early support for the Egyptian democracy movement. He ridiculed Hillary Clinton for indicating friendship with ousted President Hosni Mubarak, pointing to a rebuff of Secretary Clinton by democracy advocates on her post-Mubarak trip to Egypt. Pawlenty gave no indication as to whether he thought that Mubarak’s foreign policy, staunchly pro-American, would be continued under a future Egyptian government. I failed to hear Pawlenty comment on the new Egyptian government’s opening of the Gaza crossing, which was praised by Hamas.

Hamas leaders praised Egypt for opening the crossing and attempted to allay concerns in Cairo that opening the crossing would shift the burden of tending to Gaza’s impoverished population of 1.5 million Palestinians.

Pawlenty failed to comment on the new Egyptian government brokering a deal between the Palestinian factions Fatah and Hamas to produce a unity government in the West Bank and Gaza, which has caused severe political heartburn for the United States. Pawlenty, while heavily critical of the Obama Administration on Iran, did not comment on the new Egyptian government’s diplomatic opening to Iran, which in the spirit of democratic reform was attributed by Egyptian officials to a desire to more accurately reflect public opinion. From the New York Times:

Egyptian officials, emboldened by the revolution and with an eye on coming elections, say that they are moving toward policies that more accurately reflect public opinion.

And that includes the new relationship with Iran:

At the same time, she said, Egypt is also in the process of normalizing its relations with Iran, a regional power that the United States considers a dangerous pariah.

“All the world has diplomatic relations with Iran with the exception of the United States and Israel,” Ambassador Bakhoum said. “We look at Iran as a neighbor in the region that we should have normal relations with. Iran is not perceived as an enemy as it was under the previous regime, and it is not perceived as a friend.”

Pawlenty described democracy as “a fruit that is ripening” in the Middle East. He said that we need the “pro-democracy, secular parties” to succeed in Egypt. He gave no indication of whether the Muslim Brotherhood fit this description. He leaves us to speculate as to what his policy would be towards a democratically elected government of Egypt that might be run by the Brotherhood. One has to wonder if that policy would be similar to the policy the United States currently employs towards the democratically elected Hamas in the Gaza Strip.

Pawlenty issued various non-sequiturs on Syrian policy as well, proposing a recall of the American ambassador to Syria while advocating diplomacy to solve the Syrian problem.

“we should press every diplomatic and economic channel to bring the Assad reign of terror to an end.

Can’t quite figure out how to press the diplomatic channels while withdrawing our ambassador, but T-Paw is not bothered by such contradictions.

Pawlenty did stand with the President on Libya. No word on what the American national interest is in Libya, or what nation building will be required after the Moammar Gadhafi regime is toppled. Not surprisingly, like John McCain, Pawlenty points to an urgent need to maintain all of these foreign commitments, but refuses to ask the American people to pay for them. Urgent or not, T-Paw advocates borrowing the money from China and others to fund these military actions. While we borrow from the Chinese to fund military action the Chinese are striking lucrative business deals with these countries, with one blog saying that “they build and we guard”.

The United States needs to have a foreign policy based on our national interests. Pawlenty’s vacuous policy pronouncements are a recipe for continued foreign policy disasters that will bankrupt this country. It is a complex world that requires American policy to not only reflect our values, but the interests of our people as well. Rebuilding infrastructure in Iraq and Afghanistan while we fight for crumbs to rebuild our own in America strikes me as foolhardy. Many Republicans are now coming to that realization. Thankfully Pawlenty won’t be on the stage much longer.

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Budget and Campaign Musings

Posted on June 27, 2011 by billmanzi

Methuen’s budget is passed, and of course that passage has its critics. Naturally, in a political season, there are going to be those who utilize the budget for political purposes. Just a few disjointed thoughts:

1) When a candidate tells you they are opposed to a budget, (or anything else for that matter), ask for specifics. In the case of the budget ask the candidate what services to the public they favor cutting. If they tell you that no services need to be cut have them explain what specifically they would cut from the budget.

2) What would be some questions you would like to see asked at a Mayoral debate?

3) Should a Mayoral debate contain a spelling bee section?

That is all (for now).

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A Flake You Say? Now That is Fair and Balanced

Posted on June 27, 2011 by billmanzi

Chris Wallace had Michelle Bachmann on Fox News Sunday, and besides asking about her family taking advantage of federal programs Wallace had the temerity to ask Bachmann whether she was a “flake”. Wallace issued an apology via the FNS website yesterday after being pelted with protests by Bachmann supporters. I happen to think that Wallace is a pretty tough interviewer, regardless of the party affiliation of the person being interviewed. Was Wallace off base in his questioning?

Regardless of the Wallace interview Bachmann is on the rise, descending on Iowa today, showing herself to be a major force in the Republican nominating contest. A Politico story today deals with her surge, and dismisses some of the caricature of her that has been created by some of her public pronouncements.

“She works to know her audience and will customize her message and her tone to resonate with the audience she’s speaking to,” said Ron Carey, a former chairman of the Minnesota GOP who served briefly as Bachmann’s congressional chief of staff. “She’s smart enough to modify and still find areas of agreement but make sure she doesn’t use some of the red meat rhetoric to emphasize her points.”

I think that, as of today, Bachmann will easily win in Iowa. She will take advantage of the media fascination with her to get plenty of free coverage, and she has always shown herself to be a prolific fundraiser. The Bachmann train is picking up steam. Will the candidates she is about to extinguish in Iowa go negative?

http://video.foxnews.com/v/embed.js?id=1025286407001&w=466&h=263Watch the latest video at video.foxnews.com

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Iowa Poll: Good News for Bachmann

Posted on June 26, 2011 by billmanzi

A new survey by the Des Moines Register shows Mitt Romney leading the pack in Iowa, with Michelle Bachmann in a statistical dead heat with Romney for the lead. Romney is polling at 23%, Bachmann at 22%, and Herman Cain is running third at 10%. Meanwhile some of the bigger names are way behind, with Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul tied at 7%, Tim Pawlenty is at 6%, Rick Santorum at 4%, and Jon Huntsman has surged to 2%.

The poll continues the good news for Bachmann, who will be spending more time and resources in Iowa in the next month. It is early, but the results have to be alarming for Pawlenty, who finds himself in a real bad spot with these numbers. He has been spending time and money here, and these results show that so far he has been an underwhelming candidate. And speaking of underwhelming the Huntsman number, even though he is not competing here, should be a sign of things to come for him. His drive to crack 4% continues.

The poll appears to leave open a preference for a new candidate: (From the Register)

Indeed, results indicate Iowa Republicans would be receptive to additional candidates in the race. Just 14 percent of likely Republican caucusgoers say their minds are made up about their choice in the presidential race. Another 14 percent don’t have a first choice yet. Sixty-nine percent say they could be persuaded to support a candidate other than their first choice.

So Governor Rick Perry will continue with his flirtation, but the clock is ticking, with the best potential alternative to Romney appearing to be Michelle Bachmann. The Politico story is here.

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Trial in Boston? Maybe Not

Posted on June 25, 2011 by billmanzi

I have resisted (up to now) the desire to post on the capture of James Bulger, although I admit to being as fascinated with the story as everyone else appears to be. The Bulger capture and the hyper media coverage surrounding his return to “face justice” in Boston, with all media outlets and anyone within shouting distance of a microphone calling him guilty of all manner of heinous crimes, has to seriously call into question whether any jury could be empaneled in Boston that would not have been polluted by the pre-trial publicity. The impending change of venue motion should consume more than a few months. And what is the deal with the government position that Bulger is not indigent? I recognize (and believe) that Bulger may have hidden assets. But if the goal is to get a trial before multiple years elapse then the Government should use other means to try to find those hidden assets. After all any additional monies uncovered will be seized, leaving him indigent in the end anyway. The media circus will be big business for many, but it will not help to convict James Bulger of anything. It may help him delay long enough to make one last,final escape from justice.

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Mired Down in Afghanistan

Posted on June 25, 2011 by billmanzi

The President gave his speech on Afghanistan, announcing that he was essentially winding down the “surge” that he had authorized a year or so ago. It appears to just about all that the President is splitting the policy difference, throwing a small bone to the anti-war crowd, but leaving enough military flexibility to avoid the charge that he will “lose” Afghanistan. Plenty of debate going on, with the McCain wing charging that the President is not committed to “victory” in Afghanistan. But what constitutes victory there? That seems to be a question that nobody has a cogent answer to.

It always appeared to me that the initial goal was the overthrow of the Taliban government that had allowed its country to be used as a base for terrorist operations against the United States, as well as the eviction of Al-Qaeda from Afghanistan, followed by a degrading of its operational terrorist capacity. Such a goal has been reached, but as appears to be typical we have experienced mission creep, with nation building in Afghanistan now a big part of the program. With the Taliban not willing to give up the fight, with tribal and geographic loyalties preventing consolidation of military gains without the permanent stationing of the American military there, our commitment for “victory” appears to be endless and financially draining. Calls for negotiations between all the parties may sound good, but I happen to agree with those who say that such negotiations would only be a prelude to a final military settlement once we left. From a military standpoint the balance of forces on the ground do not appear to favor our putative allies in Kabul. Such a final military reckoning, in our absence, would likely find the Taliban receiving military help from Saudi Arabia and Pakistan, with the incumbents leaning on Iran and India.

At some point the natives must be able to militarily support themselves. A return to power of the Taliban, in even limited form, would not be a good thing. But the key for the U.S. is that no further hostile acts be launched against us from Afghan soil. We have achieved the limited goals that should have been the sole object of our initial mission. It is time to stop the madness and accelerate the timetable for the full withdrawal of U.S. forces.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/32545640

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Jon Joins the Party (Or did He?)

Posted on June 23, 2011 by billmanzi

Jon Huntsman officially joined the Party yesterday, declaring his intention to run for the Presidency as a Republican. In one of his first interviews to talk about electoral strategy Huntsman indicated that he would carve a path to the nomination by reliance on “independent” voters who would participate in “open” Republican primaries in New Hampshire and South Carolina.

Huntsman described his nomination scenario: “An aggressive approach to New Hampshire and South Carolina, cutting his wife loose in Florida, and crossing the finish line—I mean, I said that last part a little tongue-in-cheek,” Huntsman explained. “But when you look at open primaries in both New Hampshire and South Carolina, I think it’s a wide open affair, I really do.”

Naturally the Huntsman campaign had to walk those remarks back pretty quickly, with old pro John Weaver telling Politico that the Huntsman campaign intends to do real well with Republican voters.

Later in the day, John Weaver, Huntsman’s chief strategist, sought to clarify the ex-governor’s intentions by saying: “We intend to do well, in New Hampshire and South Carolina and Florida, among Republicans – and every indication that we have, early on, is that we will do so. Now, the fact that a candidate can attract independent votes is a good indication that they can be more viable in a general election. And at the end of the day, this is about beating Barack Obama. But our goal is to do well – extremely well – among Republicans.”

I can imagine that the Huntsman position on cap and trade, which is now being “clarified” by the campaign, will be a huge hit with Republican voters in New Hampshire and South Carolina. Of course Huntsman can assuage those Republicans by repeating his view that the Obama stimulus was simply too small. From the Club for Growth:

Governor Huntsman also stated that “if I were in Congress, I probably would not have voted in favor because it didn’t have enough stimulus and probably wasn’t big enough to begin with.”

His strong support for TARP gives the Huntsman campaign the perfect trifecta for “doing well” with Republican primary voters.

Huntsman has probably received more press coverage than any other candidate polling at below 5% in recent times. He will skip Iowa, and concentrate on New Hampshire. If his campaign achieves the quality of his introductory video attached below I can see Huntsman easily breaking the four percent mark within the next few months. (Assuming that he spends a large amount of money). Governor Huntsman was warmly welcomed to the field by a video from Rick Santorum, highlighting the Huntsman refusal to sign an anti-abortion pledge. Welcome to the Party Jon.

Different from Jon 2012 on Vimeo.

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Republicans Split on Foreign Adventurism

Posted on June 22, 2011 by billmanzi

A pretty public split has occurred in the Republican Party over the proper role for the United States in the world, with the neo-con wing seeming to have some real issues with much of the comments from the Republican Presidential field, especially on Afghanistan. Mitt Romney, Michelle Bachmann and others seemed to indicate dwindling support for continuing to spend $2 billion a week in Afghanistan.
Senator John McCain has led the counterattack for the neo-con wing, accusing members of his own Party of being “isolationist”. McCain just got into a dust-up with Democratic Senator Joe Manchin on the Senate floor, lecturing Manchin on his need to understand history as Manchin asked why we can’t get infrastructure spending in the United States while we spend billions in Afghanistan.

Joe Scarborough has been an ardent critic of the neo-con interventionism, using his Morning Joe program to drive his criticism relentlessly. McCain’s references to Ronald Reagan as a model for his and the neo-con’s desire to invade or bomb multiple countries at once is either a deliberate and cynical misuse of Reagan’s name, or it displays a startling ignorance of history. From Scarborough’s Politico column:

It is laughable to suggest that any Republican who does not support being involved simultaneously in three hot wars is taking up the cause of the John Birch Society, turning their backs on internationalism and calling for bringing our troops home. Though you would never believe it listening to the former POW, there is a middle ground between McCain’s interventionism and Ron Paul’s isolationism.

And that is where most voters find themselves heading into the 2012 election. Some GOP candidates are finally getting that message.

American taxpayers are starting to ask the questions Manchin is asking. And McCain, for all of his bombastic nonsense, only advocates borrowing the money to support his desire for multiple invasions and bombing runs. The question I would have for him is if it is in our national interest to invade multiple countries at once why don’t you ask the American taxpayer for the money to pay for it all. The Libyan debacle is close to a billion dollars of borrowed money. Best comment of the night, in my opinion, came from Michelle Bachmann at the Republican debate: The United States has no “vital interest” in Libya. If Bachmann is wrong someone should explain what our “national interests” are in Libya. As far as Ronald Reagan goes his Defense Secretary, Cap Weinberger, promulgated the doctrine that governed U.S. engagement overseas.

The Reagan doctrine limited such events to a limited number of circumstances where the armed conflict is vital to American interests, where our objectives are clearly defined, where our commitment is full and overwhelming and where the war has public support.

Maybe John McCain needs to acquaint himself with the Reagan doctrine before he uses Reagan’s name as a justification for policies that are bankrupting the country and leading us into adventures that have no relationship to the national interest. President Obama talks about the Afghan war strategy tonight.

Read the Scarborough column here.

http://abcnews.go.com/assets/player/walt2.6/flash/SFP_Walt_2_65.swf

http://c.brightcove.com/services/viewer/federated_f9?isVid=1

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