Truly Scary Deficit Numbers

Posted on November 9, 2010 by billmanzi

Pete Peterson was on with Chuck Todd today, talking deficits and giving his view that any solution will require 1)spending cuts 2) entitlement reform 3) tax increases- He used some numbers that would come into play should a solution be tried using only one of the tools. Peterson claims that budget cuts totaling 36% of the budget would have to be enacted without the use of added revenue, or taxes would have to go up by about 50% without any spending cuts. Yes we have been living well beyond our means, and the day of reckoning is coming. Another interesting statistic. By 2027 interest payments on the debt will be the biggest line item in the federal budget, outstripping even defense. By 2055 interest on the debt will consume all federal revenue. Some sobering thoughts as we continue to listen to the imbecility that passes for budget discussion these days.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/32545640

Posted in National News | Tagged , | 3 Comments

The Bush- Lauer Interview

Posted on November 9, 2010 by billmanzi

Former President George W. Bush talked to Matt Lauer in advance of the release of his memoir, “Decision Points”. The former President has been largely silent since he left office, living quietly and working on this book. I have only seen this highlight clip, but like all who love historical perspective I will buy the book, although I am still working on Tony Blair’s biography. A pretty big scoop for NBC News, and an intriguing choice by George W. Bush to go with Matt Lauer as the interviewer.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/32545640

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Pragmatism Vs Purity

Posted on November 8, 2010 by billmanzi

Lawrence O’Donnell engaged in a debate with Glenn Greenwald that has been going on in the Democratic Party for some time, on Morning Joe. O’Donnell, a committed lefty, argues that without Blue Dogs it will be hard, if not impossible, for Democrats to achieve majority status. Greenwald argues for pushing policies that would be a substantially harder sell in districts that have a conservative bent, arguing that more “progressive” legislation would produce better electoral results for Democrats. I have to say that from where I am sitting O’Donnell made the better case. The numbers are what O’Donnell says they are, and are difficult to refute, although Greenwald makes a decent run at it. I guess that if we put up more progressive candidates in the next cycle in districts that Blue Dogs lost Greenwald thinks we stand a better chance of picking up seats. I beg to differ. Republicans are not the only ones fighting amongst themselves.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/32545640

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What is Rand Paul Right About?

Posted on November 7, 2010 by billmanzi

Senator Elect Rand Paul gave a national interview to Christiane Amanpour, and although he took some heat from her for refusing to give specific answers as to where he would cut the budget (which has been typical of Republican doublespeak on deficits) I think he was quite expansive in other areas. What was Rand Paul (in my opinion) right on?

1) He supported Pay-Go, and highlighted the fact that Congress routinely violates its own rules by declaring spending to be an “emergency”, thereby eliminating the pay-go requirement for corresponding spending cuts or tax hikes to support “new spending”. On that issue he is right.

2) He highlighted (anecdotally) the Congressional practice of ascertaining spending levels first, and worrying not at all about building that spending around existing revenues. He advocated for legislators being “responsible” in their approach to budgeting. He may be dreaming on that, but he is right.

3) He said that whatever budget cuts occurred they ought to include defense. And while he only hinted at his position, the notion of Europe and Japan shouldering a bigger share of their own defense costs was clearly on his mind. On that he is especially correct. We close military bases in the United States that at least promote economic activity and keep open bases in Germany that promote economic activity and jobs (for Germans). What are we doing with any bases in Western Europe anyway?

4) He questioned the rationale for the war in Afghanistan. At $2 billion a week somebody better start questioning it. On that issue he is correct.

Contrary to the impression left by Ms. Amanpour I think we got a fairly good flavor of where Rand Paul is on key policy issues, and although I disagree on many I think Rand Paul is going to give the contrast needed to have the type of debate we need now. I don’t think I am alone in that. Today Frank Rich in the New York Times suggested that President Obama invite Rand Paul to any meetings involving Republican leadership.

Better still, the president should open this bargaining session to the full spectrum of his opposition. As he said at his forlorn news conference on Wednesday, he is ready to consider policy ideas “whoever proposes them.” So why not cut to the chase and invite Congressional Tea Party heavyweights like Jim DeMint, Rand Paul and Michele Bachmann to the White House along with the official G.O.P. leadership? They will offer the specifics that Boehner and McConnell are too shy to divulge.

DeMint published a book last year detailing his view that Social Security be privatized to slow America’s descent into socialism. Paul can elaborate on his ideas for reducing defense spending and cutting back on drug law enforcement. Bachmann will explain her plans for weaning Americans off Medicare.

I think Rich was also correct today. Lets have the debate, but with Republicans that have the courage of their convictions. Not with the craven majority that refuses to say what they really think. Take it to the bank. Rand Paul will end up saying just what he thinks. And then the contrasts will be clear.

http://abcnews.go.com/assets/player/walt2.6/flash/SFP_Walt_2_65.swf

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Michele Bachmann for Republican Conference Chair

Posted on November 7, 2010 by billmanzi

The Republicans have a fight on their hands for a key leadership position in the new Congress, pitting Michele Bachmann against Jeb Hensarling for Republican Conference Chair. The institutional support seems to be with Hensarling, but I think the Republicans need to get away from all that tired institutional nonsense and get Rep. Bachmann into leadership. After all how can you have an entire Republican leadership team without a “true constitutional conservative”? Eric Cantor and Paul Ryan have announced their support for Hensarling, both obviously oblivious to the true benefits that Rep. Bachmann would bring to leadership. From her Facebook page announcing her candidacy.

“Constitutional conservatives deserve a loud and clear voice in leadership!”

Amen to that Rep. Bachmann. Democrats should hope for no less.

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The President's Opening Position on Bush Tax Cuts

Posted on November 6, 2010 by billmanzi

The President laid out his opening position on extending the Bush era tax cuts, making three major points.

1) That the lame duck session ought to make the Bush era tax cuts for the “middle class” permanent.

2) That we need to cut spending, and that his suggested three year freeze on discretionary spending ought to be adopted as the tool to do that.

3) That the nation cannot afford to make the Bush era tax cuts permanent for the top two percent (over $250,000).

And so the President offers his compromise to the Republicans, which is to make the bulk of the Bush tax relief permanent, and to extend the tax relief for the top two percent for a finite period of time. He chose his words carefully, but that is what I take from it. He also signaled a willingness to make a deal on spending, but prefers his “three year freeze” to the John Boehner approach of rolling back to 2008 levels. There will be a middle ground found that will serve both in the short term. The base will howl at the extension of the tax cuts for the top two percent, but it is the best deal the President will be able to make. Will John Boehner be able to deliver any Republican votes for this deal in the lame duck session? Will the President buckle if the Republicans hold out for making the tax cuts for the top two percent permanent? Let the negotiations begin.

Posted in National News | Tagged , | 2 Comments

The Tsongas Victory Speech

Posted on November 6, 2010 by billmanzi

Congresswoman Niki Tsongas speaking at her victory party Tuesday night. She won an impressive victory over a tough opponent in a difficult year for Democrats. And she won a pretty impressive victory in terms of margins. Yes she won Methuen as well.

Posted in Fifth Congressional, Methuen | Tagged | 1 Comment

The Pelosi Shuffle

Posted on November 6, 2010 by billmanzi

Speaker Nancy Pelosi, her Democratic caucus hammered by the elections of last week, has decided to run for Minority Leader in the new Congress. There had been much speculation on her future after the dreadful election results for House Dems, but after taking the pulse of the caucus she has decided to stay on as leader. Despite some rumblings from a few members it looks like she will be well positioned to win that spot and remain the Democratic Leader. I would venture to say that Republicans are delighted with the decision, and will continue to utilize Pelosi as a campaign foil for the next two years.

The Pelosi decision will be hotly debated outside the House, with the potential impacts dissected vigorously. My own view is that success deserves reward, failure requires change. Pelosi has led the Democrats to majority status, but she and the President have failed politically to hold the fort. The Blue Dogs have been wiped out, which some on the left apparently think is a good thing. It is not a good thing, and Speaker Boehner is about to show you how bad of a thing it really is. The Blue Dog eradication will allow Pelosi to withstand any potential challenge, and it also may leave current Majority Leader Steny Hoyer as the odd man out of leadership, as Pelosi will assume that title, leaving Hoyer in the position of running for Whip, a position already held by Rep. James Clyburn. The moderate Hoyer is on the ropes, likely to be drummed out by a smaller and more liberal caucus. Republican operatives throughout the land will smile this morning. Some of the more notable Republican attack ads on the Speaker are below.

The Washington Post story on Steny Hoyer running for Minority Whip here.

The E.J. Dionne column on Nancy Pelosi is here.

Pelosi announces her decision to run for Minority Leader.

Republicans “Jubilant” over Pelosi decision.

http://specials.washingtonpost.com/mv/embed/?title=Republican%20ads%20zero-in%20on%20Nancy%20Pelosi&stillURL=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.washingtonpost.com%2Fwp-dyn%2Fcontent%2Fphoto%2F2010%2F06%2F25%2FPH2010062504242.jpg&flvURL=%2Fmedia%2F2010%2F06252010-18v&width=480&height=270&autoStart=false&clickThru=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.washingtonpost.com%2Fwp-dyn%2Fcontent%2Fvideo%2F2010%2F06%2F25%2FVI2010062504201.html

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Can't Be Done Overnight

Posted on November 4, 2010 by billmanzi

Governor Haley Barbour was on Morning Joe a few days ago, talking about the deficit and Republican plans to reduce spending. The Governor, head of the Republican Governor’s Association, has been a major force in this political season, raising and spending millions on behalf of Republican candidates throughout the country. He did come up a wee bit short in Massachusetts and New Hampshire, but the RGA has become the de facto Republican National Committee, which Barbour used to head. His comments on the deficit were instructive, as he pledged to deeply reduce spending, but by golly could not say that a balanced budget would be forthcoming from Republicans anytime soon. I believe he said something like “when you are in this big of a hole it takes a while to get out”. Or “it can’t be done in one year”. Hmmmm. Sound familiar? What else? Well Haley says that the Republicans have a plan to cut spending. But he can’t say what spending will be cut. hmmm. Well lets see what Speaker Boehner produces in terms of real deficit reduction, per the Republican campaign promise. And let us see what programs will be cut, and what political consensus develops around those cuts.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/32545640

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Methuen Election Results and a Few Observations

Posted on November 3, 2010 by billmanzi

I have attached a pdf with all of the Methuen election results from yesterday. I will try to do some individual posts later today. Some quick notes though.

1) Congrats to David Paleologos and Suffolk, who called the Governor’s race pretty much spot on.

2) Could the big night for Republicans been even bigger on the Senate side? The Dems are lucky to have escaped with Nevada and Delaware. They did so as gifts from the Republicans.

3) Deval Patrick ran a flawless campaign, and Charlie Baker ran a flawed campaign.

4) The President better start better connecting with voters, or what is left of the Democrats in Washington will be wiped out in 2012. Cannot count on Republican gifts coming forever.

5) Speaker in waiting John Boehner will have as much trouble with his caucus as he will with the Democratic Caucus.

6) Expect a raft of subpoena’s to be served on the Obama Administration from the Republican majority in the House.

7) Congrats to Rep. Linda Dean Campbell, who won every precinct in Methuen on her way to re-election.

2010-general-election

Posted in Methuen, National News, State News | Tagged , | 10 Comments