The Brooks-Ryan Debate

Posted on December 9, 2010 by billmanzi

An interesting debate between Rep. Paul Ryan and conservative columnist David Brooks over the role of government and the intersection of politics and government, and how to best act in the best interests of the American people. I have praised Paul Ryan on this blog, and today I do not take that praise back. He has had the courage to put forward a vision that included specifics as to how he believes a balanced budget should be achieved. And to the surprise of many conservatives he has done that without the Republicans “controlling” Congress. I do not agree with that vision, but at least he has had the courage to put forward a plan. But Ryan has also shown himself to be less of a conciliator than I had hoped, and actually voted against the Deficit Commission plan. And I believe it is for the reasons that some on the left were against the plan. They want solutions based entirely upon their own policy preferences, without compromise. Ryan apparently believes that any increased revenue makes the deficit reduction package a non-starter. He also wanted the Deficit Commission to recommend repeal of the health care package, something that they were not charged with doing. Not a real good sign about moving the ball in the next two years.

New York Times columnist David Brooks debated Ryan at the American Enterprise Institute last week, and Brooks wrote about that encounter in the Times. I come down solidly on the side of Brooks here. Ryan is using the type of rhetoric that makes common ground that much harder to find, using the same old tired nonsense about Obama being in favor of “European style socialism”, and apparently favors utilizing the political process to try to achieve total victory while the country goes bankrupt. From Brooks:

But Ryan and I differed over President Obama and the prospects for compromise in the near term. Ryan believes that the country faces a clearly demarcated choice. The Democratic Party, he argues, believes in creating a European-style cradle-to-grave social welfare state, while the Republicans believe in a free-market opportunity society. There is no overlap between the two visions and very little reason to think they can be reconciled.

I argued that Obama and his aides are liberal or center-left pragmatists and that nothing they have said or written suggests they want to turn the U.S. into Sweden. I continued that Ryan’s sharply polarized vision is not only journalistically inaccurate, it makes compromise and politics impossible. If every concession is regarded as an unprincipled surrender that takes us inexorably farther down the road to serfdom, then nothing will get done and the nation will go bankrupt.

Pretty big differences amongst those that are responsible, and those that are drunk on the kool-aid of tax cuts at all cost. I thought Ryan had a degree of responsibility. I may have been mistaken. The Dana Milbank column on Ryan is here.

http://aeistatic.capitalreach.com/a/aeiplayer/AEIConsole.swf
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The Obama Presser

Posted on December 7, 2010 by billmanzi

President Obama held a press conference today, arguing that the compromise reached on tax cuts with the Republican Party is the only option available to him, and is the best that can be done under the circumstances. His point, that this is not an “abstract” political argument but something that has “real” consequences for real people. He answered criticism from his own party by issuing some criticism of his own. From the Washington Post:

He also sharply criticized his party, accusing Democratic critics of failing to reasonably assess what he has achieved during a difficult political time. And he compared complaints that he has ceded too much ground on the tax debate to the objections from liberals during the health-care debate.

“This is a big, diverse country. Not everybody agrees with us,” he said. “I know that shocks people. You know, the New York Times editorial page does not permeate across all of America. Neither does The Wall Street Journal editorial page.

There is no question that the President basically did the best he could. President’s will also be criticized by everyone, regardless of merit. I think that the Dems could have swallowed this a little easier had the middle class cuts been “decoupled” from the top rate tax cuts with this extension. The Congressional critics, in my opinion, are in no position to beat up the President when they could not achieve their goals legislatively for the past two years. The Congressional left should look in the mirror.

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Ben Bernanke on the Economy

Posted on December 7, 2010 by billmanzi

Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke went on 60 minutes and talked about the economy, fed actions, the prospect for our economy in the future, and his recommendations for the tax code in a wide ranging interview. He talked about the economic divide that is occurring in America, defended the “quantitative easing” policy of the Fed, and urged a reduction in tax rates along with simplification of the code by eliminating a host of deductions. Bernanke highlighted a critical point, both economically and politically. The unemployment rate for college graduates is 5%, while the unemployment rate for high school graduates is over 10%. His point on “two societies” developing is borne out to some degree by that number. A good interview with some interesting points by Bernanke. The Washington Post columnist Eugene Robinson talked about the interview in his column today.

http://cnettv.cnet.com/av/video/cbsnews/atlantis2/cbsnews_player_embed.swf

http://cnettv.cnet.com/av/video/cbsnews/atlantis2/cbsnews_player_embed.swf

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John Molori is December Artist of the Month

Posted on December 7, 2010 by billmanzi

Mayor William M. Manzi has named John Molori as December’s Artist of the Month. John is a long time resident of Methuen and a photographer. He is a regular contributor to AM 1110 WCCM and a syndicated columnist for Patriots Football Weekly, Boston Baseball Magazine, Methuen Life Magazine, Merrimack Valley Business and New England Golf Monthly. His columns and photos have been published in The Boston Metro, The Providence Journal, New England Hockey Journal, North Shore Sunday, Merrimack River Current, Lowell Sun, and Eagle-Tribune.

Molori’s work has been featured on Monday Night Football, ESPN, Fox, Sporting News Radio and several radio stations and websites throughout New England. He has served as a guest lecturer at Emerson College, Boston University and Curry College.

John has won numerous honors including the New England Emmy Award, CableAce, Beacon Award, Hometown Video Award, Common Cause Open Government Website Award and the New Hampshire Association of Broadcasters Award. He is President of the Methuen Community Television Board of Directors and Webmaster for the City of Methuen official website.

Mayor Manzi stated, “I’d like to personally thank John for his participation in this program. He is one of the many talented photographers and artists living and working in our community. It is an honor to display his photography. I encourage people to come to my office and view his work.”

The Methuen Artist of the Month Program was created by Mayor Manzi four years ago in order to give members of the Methuen Arts Community a forum to display their work and to encourage participation in Methuen’s growing creative economy. Methuen artists interested in being considered for Artist of the Month should contact the Mayor’s Office.

John Molori, December Artist of the Month

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Scott Brown Leads the Field

Posted on December 6, 2010 by billmanzi

With Massachusetts Democrats having a very good year there has been much speculation about the potential vulnerability of Republican Senator Scott Brown in 2012. A new Public Policy survey shows Brown in a relatively good spot, with a very good favorability rating and a good sized lead on all potential Democratic opponents.

Brown tops recently re-elected Governor Deval Patrick, 49-42; Kennedy’s widow Vicki,
48-41; 34-year representative of the 7th congressional district, Ed Markey, 49-39; 8th district
Congressman Mike Capuano, 52-36; and 9th-district Congressman Stephen Lynch, 49-30. The varying deficits are largely a function of name recognition, but there is clearly a ceiling for a Democrat right now in an unlikely place. Brown gets 22-28% of Democrats, something usually only seen in Southern Democratic states like North Carolina. He maintains 85-89% of his own party, and holds 29- to 34-point leads with independents, who make up almost as much of the electorate (38%) as Democrats (42%).

Brown’s approval rating is higher than John Kerry’s, with 53% approving of his job performance. Brown also continues to bank a large amount of campaign cash and should be in a strong financial position in 2012. Can he be had? Despite his very good numbers this is still Massachusetts, and I think it very possible. But I do think that the Dems greatly lessen their chances with a wide open, multi candidate primary. This is a democracy, and many will likely be interested in running, but such a field may lead stronger candidates to sit out the race. Either Deval Patrick or Vicki Kennedy could win a race like that, in my opinion, but would they be interested in such a primary? (The Governor has said he will not run). And Brown is a great campaigner who is not afraid of work. Yes he is potentially vulnerable, but you have to like his chances today. The Public Policy press release is below.
brown-ppp_release_ma_1202424

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The Deal is Struck- No Offsets For All

Posted on December 6, 2010 by billmanzi

The President announced tonight a deal on the extension of ALL of the Bush tax cuts with Republicans. The deal, predicted some time ago here, (November 6th) will extend for two years all of the Bush tax cuts while also extending unemployment benefits for thirteen months. Also included was a 2% employee payroll tax rollback for 2011, as well as continuation of the increases in the Earned Income Tax Credit, Child Credit, and the American Opportunity Tax Credit. Republicans won a continuation of the Estate Tax at 35% with a $5 million dollar exemption.

Both sides argued in the run up to this about which portions of the prospective deal should be “paid for” with budgetary offsets. They did what you would expect them to do. They paid for none of it.

The initial reaction from Democratic lawmakers was cool, with some real bitterness being shown at the terms of the deal. If by chance Obama cannot deliver Democratic votes for this deal then all hell will indeed break loose. The left wants to fight, figuring Obama has misplayed his hand. While I think that a deal was necessary I do believe that the Republicans got the better of the President here. But that is a story for another post.

http://c.brightcove.com/services/viewer/federated_f9?isVid=1

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Republican Response and George Orwell

Posted on December 4, 2010 by billmanzi

The Vice President was deployed for the weekly address this week, and talked about extension of the middle class tax cuts and the extension of unemployment benefits. He failed to mention any prospective deal on those subjects with Congressional Republicans. Pretty much straight pablum on budget and taxes.

The Republican address this week was by Illinois Senator Mark Kirk, talking about the need to “spend less, tax less, and borrow less.” I have included it here as one of the best examples of budgetary doublespeak available today. (Until the next Republican call for balanced budgets and massive tax cuts occurs). This type of nonsense would be hilarious if it were not so serious. Let us look at his “claims”.

1) “these leaders” (current Democratic Leadership) should not “raise taxes” and risk another recession. He claims that there is a plan to impose a “major tax hike” on the American people. In a vote that just occurred in the House of Representatives it was the Republicans in Congress who voted against giving tax relief to the vast majority of American taxpayers, not Democrats. A short couple of months ago incoming Speaker Boehner indicated that he would vote for tax relief for middle America even if it did not offer relief for the upper two percent. Now he calls it “chicken crap”.

2) “Our mounting debts pose a clear and present danger to our future”. Yes they do Senator. So what are the solutions offered to stop this “clear and present danger”? Lets get right to the big money: Earmark reform. Nice jab because many Senate Democrats did not embrace this reform. Many Republicans also oppose it, but in any case it is a half of one percent of total spending, not even a drop in the bucket. But it is important symbolically, and I agree it should be enacted. So after the symbolism what else did the spokesman for the Republicans talk about? ” A Line Item Veto for the President”. Again something that is needed and that will help, but it does not even scratch the surface, and has been opposed by appropriators from both parties. Of course Senator Kirk hit upon a treasure chest of money when his third suggestion, cutting Congressional budgets, was included. This gem would likely bring in a whopping one tenth of one percent. Of course he left the best for last.

3) In order to get “real reductions” in spending the Republicans will form a commission. In maybe the most hilarious part of this inanity, the Senator indicated that another “commission on federal spending” resembling the Reagan era Grace Commission be formed, with the ability to submit reductions to Congress that would have to be voted up or down. He failed to address the question of whether he or his colleagues supported the Deficit Commission report, whether he and his colleagues supported ANY specific reductions in spending besides the nonsense he put forward, or whether he and his colleagues are committed to take immediate steps to formulate a budget balancing regimen at any time. He failed to mention how he would pay for any of the tax cuts he advocates for, including $750 billion for top earners over the next ten years. He closed by bemoaning the fact that interest on the national debt may outstrip defense spending by 2016, but continues to advocate policies that will actually drive up interest costs by adding to the debt. Yesterday I speculated that the New York Times editorial board was drinking some pretty strong stuff. This guy must be at the same bar, because if this is what is going to pass as Republican budgetary policy we are in for a steep decline. Positively Orwellian.

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Bipartisan Agreement Reached: Continue Deficits

Posted on December 3, 2010 by billmanzi

There is so much to talk about on the final report of the Deficit Commission, and so much posturing going on in Washington that it is almost impossible to get it all in one post. With the intersection of the potential deals on tax cuts, unemployment benefit extension, and the Deficit Commission, the double talk coming out of Washington is immense, even by Washington standards. It is quite apparent that the Commission plan will fail to attract 14 votes, which was the supposed goal to move it forward. It does look like a majority will support the plan. But it is intriguing that the opposition to the plan is quite bipartisan. On the left Andy Stern, a key Democratic player, and Democratic Rep.Jan Schakowsky have come out against the plan. On the right Rep. Paul Ryan, the incoming Chair of the House Budget Committee, and Rep. Dave Camp, the incoming Chair of the House Ways and Means Committee, both came out against the plan. On both sides of the Commission the nominal reasons for rejection are reflective of, in my opinion, a high dose of political pipedreaming. I cannot say, in criticism, that some alternatives have not been offered. They have been. But they are truly, on both sides, not grounded in achievable reality. And they reflect some inner belief, in my opinion, that the crisis at hand can be solved principally along the preferred lines of left or right.

The editorial in yesterday’s New York Times shows that whatever those guys are drinking it is likely pretty strong stuff. From some initial support of the concept the Times has come out blazing against the Commission report, with much of their argument probably reflective of the opposition of the left.

The final report, for example, fails to call for significant near-term stimulus spending to counter the effect of deficit reduction. It also aims for an arbitrary — and dangerously low — spending target of 21 percent of the economy, a level that would make it impossible to meet coming challenges. In tax reform, it does not consider a value-added tax and a financial transactions tax.

The Commission favored lowering rates while eliminating a host of “tax expenditures”, some of which are popular. But they take a huge step forward in tax simplification. The Times apparently wants a VAT, not as a substitute for, but in addition to the current tax load. Absolutely a non-starter politically. As for their criticism of the 21% number it is also nothing short of ridiculous. Republicans are saying it is too high, Democrats too low. It must have some merit on that basis alone.

But the left does not stand alone in budgetary hypocrisy. The right proudly stands for the same type of double talk and nonsense. Rep. Ryan and Rep. Camp are full of it as well, starting with their insistence on extension of the Bush tax cuts without budgetary offsets. They are deficit hawks? But they do insist that unemployment benefits be paid for, at $12 billion. Unbelievable hypocrisy.

The Deficit Commission plan is certainly not a panacea, nor is it without serious flaws. But it recognizes the imperative of action, and makes a whole host of good and doable suggestions. And the insistence of both left and right that the plan reflect 90% of their priorities just means that no plan will advance. The very best opinion piece I have read on this came from Steve Pearlstein, who ridiculed both sides pretty effectively in the Washington Post:

The same dynamic is at work in the overheated criticism of the deficit reduction plan put forward by Alan Simpson and Erskine Bowles, the chairmen of the soon-to-expire deficit commission. To hear it from liberal groups, you’d think the proposed spending limits would cut the federal government down to that of a small state, even as it “decimates” the middle class and forces seniors to eat dog food. From the right come similar hysterics about the “hollowing out” of the American military and the economic catastrophe that will befall us from a 15-cent-a-gallon hike in the gas tax.

Principle. As I mentioned yesterday it is easier to accept disagreement without the overt hypocrisy of constant doublespeak. And Republican Senator Tom Coburn, who came out in support of the plan, has principle. And that principle applies even when it requires him to swallow castor oil you know that he hates. Today’s clip should be contrasted with that, which will be posted later, of Rep. Camp, offering the same old nonsense on tax cuts and the budget.

As a final word the Deficit Commission plan which has created this firestorm, aims to cut the deficit by about $4 trillion in a decade. Simply letting ALL the tax cuts expire at some point saves $4 trillion over a decade. Hmmmm.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/32545640

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Senator Scott Brown on Unemployment Benefits

Posted on December 2, 2010 by billmanzi

Senator Scott Brown, under fire from Massachusetts Democrats over his stand on the extension of unemployment insurance benefits, took to You Tube to explain his position. And by goodness I find myself agreeing with the Senator on paying for the extension and not just adding another $12 billion to the national deficit. But then I think about his position on extension of the Bush tax cuts for top earners, which would add $750 BILLION to the national deficit, and I look for his insistence on paying for that through budgetary offsets. But that is not his position. He believes that you ought to add $750 billion to the deficit for a permanent extension of those tax cuts, but has drawn a line in the sand over this $12 billion for the unemployed.

As I mentioned in yesterday’s post it is time for the grown ups to take over the discussion, and get some real business done. The President and Democrats ought to agree to find offsets for this extension and move the bill and help people that need the assistance now. But the Republicans ought to man up and make specific proposals on how to fund the tax cuts for people making over $250,000. Since they are for cutting spending and reducing the size of government they should not be allowed to insist on offsets only for bills that they pick and choose. Going back to a strict pay-go system would force Washington pols of both parties to cut out the nonsense and act as responsible fiscal stewards. Senator Brown, you almost had me. But consistency in the application of principle shows all of us that the principle is deeply held, and not just a fig leaf. So far your position on this extension fails that test.

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On the Cusp of Dealmaking

Posted on December 1, 2010 by billmanzi

The President and key Republican Congressional leaders met yesterday, and while concrete progress was not made on specifics there appeared to be some dialing back of the hostile rhetoric that has been abundant for some time now. Both sides have been maneuvering for position on key legislation, and I think the outlines of some deals have begun to take shape. What are they?

1) The extension of the Bush tax cuts. The very best deal Democrats will get is to “decouple” the tax cuts for the top tier from the tax cuts for everyone else. If the President manages to extend the top tier for a finite period of time while permanently extending the cuts for everyone else it would be a major coup, and Democrats should be willing to settle for that. Such a deal would bring howls of protest from right and left.

2) Extension of unemployment benefits. If a deal is struck on the tax cuts look for a quick deal on another extension of unemployment benefits, with some tip of the hat by Democrats to finding budgetary offsets to the cost of the extension.

3) The ratification, in the lame duck session, of the START treaty with Russia. This is a major issue for the President and the Country. It is also the area in which the Republicans are most easily moved by direct contact with the President. He has the right arguments on the Treaty, and the Republicans know it. But I believe that their opposition has been a “hold the Treaty hostage” action until progress is made on domestic issues that they have a concern over. If ratification occurs in the lame duck session then it will be a major victory for the President, and will enhance his prestige internationally. He cannot afford stalemate on this Treaty.

So the “new atmosphere” will be put to the test immediately. No question that the Republicans are in a much stronger position, but the Presidency has extraordinary powers to shape events if utilized properly. If both sides crash and burn on these items in the lame duck session you will necessarily have to have bitter recriminations and posturing, which will start the new session off real badly. Both sides need a deal. Will the grown ups step up to the plate?

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