The Deal Is Made

Posted on April 9, 2011 by billmanzi

Speaker Boehner and Leader Reid announced a deal at 11:00 p.m.. last evening, averting a government shutdown. The deal, according to the Post, will cut over $37 billion from this years budget, will not give the Republicans the defunding of Planned Parenthood that they sought, but will include riders prohibiting federal funding for abortion in the District of Columbia, as well as a rider providing for educational vouchers in D.C. It appears that the Democrats traded some additional budget cuts for the Republicans relenting on the Planned Parenthood funding.

And so the deal is made, and there already is some rumbling on the Republican side. Karl Rove had warned on his blog that a shutdown could help President Obama, and I think his analysis was correct. All along it appeared that John Boehner realized that a shutdown would help the Democrats, but convincing his caucus of that must have been like a long, painful visit to a dentist office.

On now to the main event, which is the FY12 budget, and the raising of the debt ceiling. If you thought the rhetoric was harsh here just wait a few days. It is really going to heat up.

http://specials.washingtonpost.com/mv/embed/?title=Boehner%2C%20Reid%20reach%20agreement%20avoiding%20government%20shutdown&stillURL=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.washingtonpost.com%2Frf%2Fimage_480x270%2F2010-2019%2FWashingtonPost%2F2011%2F04%2F09%2FNational-Politics%2FVideos%2F04082011-72v%2F04082011-72v.jpg&flvURL=%2Fmedia%2F2011%2F04%2F08%2F04082011-72v.m4v&width=480&height=270&autoStart=0&clickThru=

Deal

Posted in National News | Tagged | Leave a comment

Methuen High School Science Fair Awards

Posted on April 9, 2011 by billmanzi

Methuen High School just completed its 26th annual Science Fair. Congratulations to Mr. Harb and the Science Department for having such a succesful event. The students who participated came to our last School Committee meeting to talk about the Fair and their experiments. This years winners of First Place in the Fair, Kristen Teichert and Lauren Wojtowicz, will represent Methuen High School at the Massachusetts Science Fair at MIT. The top five finishers at the Fair were:

1) Kristian Teichert and Lauren Wojtowicz- “The effects of color on the efficiencies of dye-sensitized Solar Cells”

2) Calle Bateson- “The effects of green cleaners on Canadian Nightcrawlers”

3) Parsha Khambhati and Jake Hulme- “Electrolytes in sports drinks”

4) Katisha Bellegarde and Bansari Patel- “Fighters of foul bacteria”

5) Christopher Grassi and Ryan Barry- “The effects of alcohol on the behavior of Spiders”

Thanks to Mr. Harb and all the students who participated. The sciences are a critical part of our educational offerings. When the new Methuen High School opens in three years we will have 17 modern science labs.

Science Fair

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged | Leave a comment

Scott Brown in Cruise Control

Posted on April 7, 2011 by billmanzi

Suffolk University has released a statewide poll showing how difficult it will be for Democrats to unseat Senator Scott Brown, with voters giving Brown a high favorable rating as well as showing him substantially ahead off all potential rivals in head to head match ups. From the David Paleologos press release:

More than half (55 percent) of Bay State voters said that Brown deserves to be reelected, and 56 percent said they agreed that Brown has kept his promise to be an independent voice in the U.S. Senate.

“Brown is beating all expectations,” said David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center. “His popularity hasn’t diminished as most expected, and at this point in time he’s going to be tough to beat.”

In the most recent Suffolk University/7NEWS poll, Brown led by at least 15 points in all matchups against potential Democratic challengers, with the exception of Joe Kennedy, who trailed by 5 points (Brown 45 percent, Kennedy 40 percent).

Brown defeats Governor Patrick head to head by 52% to 37%, which was the only real surprise for me in the survey. Mayor Setti Warren, who is contemplating a run against Brown, is not known by 72% of voters. He would have some work to do and some money to spend, but he has an interesting story to tell, and certainly lower name recognition at the start of a campaign cannot be considered to be fatal. (See Brown, Scott).

So, what is the key to the Brown numbers. Lets look at the matchup with Governor Patrick, which Brown wins handily. The numbers show that the Governor racks up a big margin against Brown amongst Dems, beating him by 70% to 17% (although that margin should be higher), while Brown wins near unanimous support from Republicans at 87% to 5%. But Brown continues that “independent magic”, winning that group by 69% to 20%. If the Democrats hope to beat Brown that number has to come down. Brown has been quite effective at picking his spots, making political hay by some high profile, single issue defections from Republican orthodoxy. It is working with independents. Brown also leads amongst female voters in this match-up, 48% to 41%.

Scott Brown is no one hit wonder, showing himself to be adroit at cultivating the “independent” voters by walking a fine line in his support of Republican policies that are not popular in Massachusetts. He has money, he has a great way about him on the campaign trail, but he can still be beat. It is just going to be a hard fight for the Democrat. With those numbers which Democrats will be stepping forward? Read the Globe story here.

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged , , , | Leave a comment

Wisconsin Backlash

Posted on April 6, 2011 by billmanzi

With the media focused on the budget battle(s) occurring in Washington a couple of important elections occurred in Wisconsin that may shed some light on voter response to Governor Scott Walker’s battle with labor. In a statewide election for the Wisconsin Supreme Court Joanne Kloppenburg, supported heavily by Democrats, defeated Republican incumbent David Prosser. The margin was very small and may require a recount, but it is quite the turnaround from the primary results, in which Prosser led Kloppenburg by a wide margin (55% to 25%). But that primary election was right around the time that the first volley was being fired by Governor Walker.

In a second race Democrat Chris Abele defeated Republican Jeff Stone for the position of Milwaukee County Executive. Abele had lost the primary to Stone by 18% (43% to 25%), but won the final by 22% (61% to 39%). While there may be extra-Walker factors at work here that level of turnaround cannot simply be dismissed without reference to the Scott Walker/labor dispute. I wrote about this race in a post a couple of days ago, and it looks like Democrats who may have had a tendency to stray are now returning home. Political overreach is inevitably followed by political backlash, which Governor Walker is experiencing right now. For the Wisconsin Republican Senators subject to recall, especially those in traditional Democratic districts, the bell is now tolling. More Democratic victories may temper some Republican enthusiasm for death match politics, maybe even in Washington.

Great coverage by Chris Cillizza at the Washington Post.

The Journal Sentinel coverage of the Chris Abele victory here.

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged , | Leave a comment

Boston Foundation Report on Muni Health Care

Posted on April 6, 2011 by billmanzi

The Boston Foundation and the Massachusetts Taxpayers Foundation came out with a report on Municipal Health care in Massachusetts, and the report is not surprising. The Foundation and the MTF looked at the health care plans of 14 communities (Beverly, Boston, Chelsea, Franklin, Littleton, Marlboro, Marshfield, Medford, Norwell, Peabody, Salem, Somerville, West Springfield, and
Worcester) and stacked them up against the GIC, a federal employee plan, and private health care plans. The Findings?

municipalities provide employees with far more costly and generous health care benefits than those offered by other employers in both the public and private sectors. The study finds that municipal health plans have dramatically higher premiums than other public and private plans. One of the key factors driving municipal premiums is the virtual absence of any cost sharing in the form of deductibles or co-payments for office visits and other basic medical services.

The findings are further evidence of the need for statewide municipal health care reform. Not convinced?

For family coverage, the average municipal premium is $5,600, or 37 percent, higher than the average private sector premium, 33 percent more than the federal plan premium, and 21 percent more than the state’s GIC plans.

In the municipal plans, the average co-payment for a visit to a primary care physician (PCP) is only $11. State, federal, and private sector employees on average pay almost twice as much for visits to PCPs. Specialist visits averaged only $14 for municipal workers, while the co-pays were a minimum of $20 in the GIC plans, $30 for federal workers, and averaged $20 for private sector HMO plans.

Municipal employees pay less for generic prescriptions than other employees and the disparity grows
as drug prices increase along a three-tier scale. For a tier 3 prescription drug, municipal employees pay
$31 compared to $50 for most state and private workers in Massachusetts. Federal workers pay 30 percent of the cost for these same drugs.

I will do a post on how Methuen stacks up in these categories, but for now a focus on what these numbers mean clearly shows that in the area of municipal health care collective bargaining has not worked across Massachusetts. Ed Kelly of the Professional Firefighters talked about the issue in the Globe story on the report:

Yesterday, Ed Kelly, president of the state firefighters union, said unions are willing to take on more of the financial burden of health insurance, noting that public unions have steadily made concessions on health insurance since 2005.

But, he said, “it is imperative that unions continue to have collective bargaining rights to give a voice to workers and working families.’’

Based on the survey of those 14 communities I would have to say that it is hard to find those concessions. This issue is still being played out at the Legislature. The question remains the same. If the State continues to cut local aid how can they not help us to reduce our costs to ensure that local jobs and services are preserved? I have attached the full report at the bottom of this post.

http://www.ustream.tv/flash/viewer.swf

Video streaming by Ustream

mtf_health-benefitsreport_final

Posted in Municipal Finance, State News | Tagged , | Leave a comment

Methuen Clean Up Day May 7th

Posted on April 6, 2011 by billmanzi

Mayor William M. Manzi III invites the residents of Methuen to participate in the Annual Spring Neighborhood Clean up on Saturday, May 7, 2011, 9:00 AM – 12:00 PM, with a cookout for participants to follow from 12:30 PM – 2:00 PM at The Tenney Grammar School playground. All participants will receive a free Methuen t-shirt. Take pride in your community…your neighborhood, your street, your city! For further information contact Jill Stackelin at 978-983-8578.

Methuen Clean Up Day

Posted in Methuen | Tagged | Leave a comment

The Undercard

Posted on April 5, 2011 by billmanzi

Budget talks between the Dems and Republicans for this fiscal year appear to be foundering, with a government shutdown on Friday appearing to be a distinct possibility. The President and the Speaker had dueling press availabilities today, and the tone did not look promising. The numbers have moved in so many different directions ($33billion, $61billion, $100 billion) that it is hard to keep up. It truly does appear to me that Speaker Boehner just cannot get control of his caucus and give the Dems a real number to work off of. The goalposts keep getting moved by the Speaker in response to the shifting sands inside his own caucus.

A major issue that the Republicans seem to be unable to come to grips with is that of the policy riders attached to their bill. While the Speaker has insisted all along that the Republican goal was to “cut spending” he has stated that the “riders” attached, which attack programs based on ideological opposition, must be in a final bill. That really is a non-starter and I have to believe that Speaker Boehner knows that. It just appears to an outsider that a good portion of the Republican caucus would rather shut it down rather than compromise. I have never heard of a negotiation where one side says that everything we want is non-negotiable. That is not negotiation as I understand it.

Now the Republicans point to certain facts that, while true, have no bearing on the ultimate outcome of this negotiation.

1) The Democrats could have passed a budget while they had control of both Houses. True, but irrelevant. That is something that Democrats can kick themselves over, but it certainly has no bearing on getting a budget put together for the balance of this year.

2) Speaker Boehner keeps saying that the House has passed a bill, but the Senate has not. The negotiations have centered around the House budget, and certainly that factoid favors Republicans. The lack of a Senate bill means nothing in terms of producing a bill that keeps the government open. What is needed is not a Senate bill, but a bill that can pass the Senate. That can only come from a negotiated settlement where nobody gets EVERYTHING that they want.

Republican adults are in short supply so far. Lets hope they sober up before Friday. And with the Paul Ryan budget now out this battle has to be considered the undercard to the main event.

Posted in National News | Tagged , , | Leave a comment

Mayor Kim Driscoll Out of Senate Race

Posted on April 5, 2011 by billmanzi

Salem Mayor Kim Driscoll announced today that she would not run for the Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate in 2012, choosing to concentrate on her job as Mayor of Salem. She released a statement:

“Plain and simple, I do think the seat is winnable, but there is a time and place for everything and I have simply come to the conclusion that for me, at this time, I enjoy my job as Mayor of Salem and I believe my work here will require my full attention,”

Mayor Driscoll is an up and coming star in the Democratic Party and would have been a great candidate. If Congressman Tierney’s seat opens she would have to be considered a favorite if she chooses to run. For now the people of Salem are fortunate to have her continued service as Mayor.

Posted in State News | Tagged , | Leave a comment

The Main Event Part 2

Posted on April 5, 2011 by billmanzi

Today is the day that Paul Ryan will unveil the House budget for FY2012. He has released this video, which shows some of the numbers that should be of great concern to all. He is taking some incoming flak, although counter-proposals from the Democrats seem scant. Ezra Klein has been a critic, pointing out that Ryan’s plan, which does nothing to stop the rapid increase in health costs, achieves savings through cuts, not reform. He posits that since Ryan cuts benefits without addressing the underlying issues of health care costs, many will be left behind.

In both cases, what saves money is not the reform. It’s the cut. For Medicare, the cut is that the government wouldn’t cover the full cost of the private Medicare plans, and the portion they would cover is set to shrink as time goes on. In Medicaid, the block grants are set to increase more slowly than health-care costs, which is to say, the federal government will shoulder a smaller share of the costs than it currently does. The question for both plans is the same: What happens to beneficiaries?

The answer to the question posed by Klein is that without additional revenues dedicated to medicare and medicaid many beneficiaries will eventually have a much more difficult time affording health care. It is cost shifting, pure and simple. But the question that needs to be asked is, if not Ryan’s plan then what? I do believe that Ryan’s numbers as to where the budget is going in the years to come are correct. So we either need to cut system expenses (either via cost shifting or reforms that try to tackle the growth in health care inflation) or we leave the system where it is and raise sufficient revenues to address the massive systemic financial problems of the entitlement programs. Ryan opts for cost shifting. The Main Event is about to begin. Read the Paul Ryan op-ed Wall Street Journal piece here.

Posted in National News | Tagged , | Leave a comment

T-Paw Steps In It

Posted on April 5, 2011 by billmanzi

The Republican response to President Obama’s re-election announcement has been somewhat predictable (maybe another post on that later) but Tim Pawlenty made a little news with the release of another slick video that manages to say just about nothing. He did include New York Times columnist Paul Krugman in the video, which drew a strong rebuke from Krugman.

Wow. So Tim Pawlenty is using something I said on yesterday’s This Week in a new ad.

So, to clarify: nobody in Washington is doing anything about job creation. However, Republicans are working quite hard on job destruction.

And Pawlenty — who knows so little about the whole subject that he fell for a well-known zombie claim (killed by facts, but still shambling along) about soaring government employment — is hardly qualified to lecture anyone else on the issue.

Pawlenty is considered by some to be one of the Republican’s serious candidates. This ad has to make you think about that claim.

Posted in National News | Tagged , | Leave a comment