Manzi in the Morning- Bryan Sweet Interview

Bryan Sweet came on the show to talk about his announcement that he is a candidate for Methuen School Committee. That race should be interesting, as term limits and voluntary departures will create a large number of openings. Bryan has been a member of the High School Building Committee since its inception, as well as being the Chair of the local Democratic Town Committee. He is a first time candidate, and brings great talent and caring about our school children to the race. I hope we will be able to host a forum for the School Committee candidates on WCAP. More on that later. My thanks to Bryan Sweet for taking the time to come on.

http://yourlisten.com/swf/Player.swf?id=16981466

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Manzi in the Morning- Phil Lahey

Phil Lahey, the host of the cable access show “The Empty Chair” came on the radio program this week to talk about addiction, the very real pain caused when a family member suffers from this disease, his own experience with his daughter who became addicted to narcotics, and the support available to both addicts and family members. Phil has a real world perspective on this problem, and his show is a must see. It is produced right here at the studios of Methuen Community T.V., and is available on You Tube.The show has a facebook page , and Phil is available to talk to folks who might be able to benefit from his experience. The show features his daughter Colleen, and is a great personal story of success in the long fight against addiction. My thanks to Phil Lahey for taking the time to come on the show.

http://yourlisten.com/swf/Player.swf?id=16980774

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Suffolk Polling on MA Senate- Markey Leads

Suffolk pollster David Paleologos has tonight released his first MA Senate poll, and it shows a substantial lead for Democrat Ed Markey over Republican Gabriel Gomez.From the Suffolk press release:

“Ed Markey begins this race where he left off with his win in the Democratic Primary: exceeding expectations,” said David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center in Boston. “The early perception immediately after the party primaries was that Markey was vulnerable. These findings suggest the opposite of a close race – that Ed Markey begins the sprint to June with a large lead over his Republican opponent who voters are unsure about.”

I had done a posting on a PPP survey that had Markey with a 4 point lead right after the primary election, but Paleologos shows a substantially different race. Lets look at some of the numbers.

Markey shows up with a 53% favorable rating, with 30% unfavorable, substantially better than the PPP poll. Gomez is at 38% favorable, 23% unfavorable, and a large 32% undecided. Markey will be attempting to mold that 32% by defining Gomez with some early money.

In the head to head match-up Markey leads Gomez by a 52% to 35% margin, with 11% undecided. I am a little surprised to see that margin this early, and it certainly is a bad omen for Gomez. Some other interesting numbers that will have some bearing on this race: (or I just found them interesting)

President Obama has a 67% favorable rating in Massachusetts. The next time you hear Ed Markey say he wants to go to the U.S. Senate to promote President Obama’s agenda think of that number.

The survey asked who the respondent would vote for if they were in the booth today. That number of course does not count the leaners that the main question includes. Those numbers show a 27% to 22% lead for Markey, with 45% undecided. If Gomez was looking for a shred of hope maybe that number could give him some, but I would not be filled with optimism (based on these numbers) if I were Gomez.

Another interesting question that may merit additional discussion, is the perception of Markey’s independence. Paleologos asked: “As a U.S. Senator, do you think Ed Markey will be an independent voice or
toe the Democratic party line?” 58% said Markey would toe the party line, 29% said independent voice, and 14% were undecided. As we look at the Sanford win in South Carolina, and the looming win for Ed Markey in Massachusetts it appears that Washington may in fact be a better reflection of the electorate than we would all like to admit. Only 29% believe Ed Markey is an “independent voice”, but he is on the verge of a big win. We move ever closer to a de facto parliamentary system.

The so called “peoples pledge” was an important issue for 71% of the respondents, with 48% rating it as “very important”. Another tool in the Markey arsenal, and one that you will be hearing much more about in the days and weeks ahead.

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Upsizing the Rockingham Casino

The Eagle Tribune carried a story this week talking about Millennium Gaming’s plan to create a larger casino at Rockingham Park that would include restaurants and even a concert facility that would seat 1500. With the New Hampshire Senate having passed a casino bill (SB152) that makes licensing contingent on an investment of $425 million it might appear to some that the existing requirement would suffice to build a “destination” casino. But a look at the “fine print” of that bill has shown otherwise, as the $425 million requirement includes deductions for “land acquisition” and “infrastructure costs”, as well as a full deduction for the $80 million license fee. After deducting the $80 million the requirement comes down to $345 million, less land acquisition and infrastructure. In reality, under this legislation, the casino mandate could drop as low as $250 million, which would be no more than an expensive slots parlor. I have had Daniel Barrick, of the New Hampshire Center for Public Policy Studies on my WCAP Radio Program to talk about this issue, and what the size of a casino might mean for post-construction jobs. The report issued by the Center discussed the issue:

Current legislation (SB 152) requires a minimum $425 million investment. However, as detailed earlier, the $80m license fee can be subtracted from that amount, for a net minimum investment of $345 million. In addition, the legislation also allows developers to include the cost of purchasing or leasing land for the casino site in their total investment. But assuming a $345 million investment, we would expect to see approximately 1,700 jobs, according to the estimated relationship between investment and staffing. Whether these jobs are “new” jobs is a matter of debate. Economists have examined expanded gambling as an economic development strategy, as well as a state revenue generator. The Federal Reserve Bank of Boston was asked to study this question in 2006, and found that the local
economic benefit of having a casino is likely to be quite small, and depends almost entirely on whether the casino is truly attracting “new” economic activity into the local area surrounding the casino, beyond the goods and services demanded by the casino itself.

I also discussed the issue with Jim Rubens, the Chair of the Granite State Coalition Against Expanded Gambling, when he appeared on my show. Rubens highlighted the same issue, as well as a few others, in his appearance. With the investment requirement of SB152 clearly deficient Millennium has stepped up to answer the criticism by proposing the “upsize” highlighted in the Tribune story. The new number unveiled by Millennium is $600 million, with additions of a hotel, theater, and restaurants. Whether that $600 million is “casino investment”, or total investment, is not clear to me, although Millennium did a public presentation at Rockingham Park on the new plan. As you might expect Jim Rubens has criticized the new plan, but has also raised some important questions in a press release issued by the Granite State Coalition. From his press release:

Over the past two weeks, the special House casino committee has closely examined SB152, the casino bill written by lobbyists for Las Vegas-based Millennium Gaming. Skepticism about the bill among even pro-casino legislators has mounted to the point where Millennium is being forced to make yet loftier promises, today that it will spend $600 million on its proposed Salem casino.”Casino developers consistently overpromise delivery dates, casino amenities, tax revenue, and regulatory compliance to get casinos legalized and to win licenses,” said Jim Rubens, chair of Granite State Coalition Against Expanded Gambling. “If Millennium and its lobbyists want to overcome the skepticism, they should write the promises into their bill.”

So Rubens calls for SB152 to be amended to change the required investment to the $600 million, in line with the new Millennium commitment. But he also gets to that other key point: will the investment number be less the offsets allowed by SB152 (License fee, land acquisition, infrastructure)? From the Coalition press release:

…disclose the infrastructure and site acquisition cost deducts from the promised $600 million (Millennium paid $200 million for the derelict Meadows race track site)

There is political momentum with the pro-casino forces, who have won a local referendum in Salem, and have Governor Hassan pushing hard for this legislation. Despite that momentum passage in the New Hampshire House remains an open question, with the vote looking too close to call. If the pro-casino political operation that was surprised by the opposition of a sitting Attorney General of New Hampshire at the Senate hearing for SB152 is in charge of House passage then maybe the anti-casino forces have a real shot at victory. One thing we know for sure: There is no LBJ in that pro-casino group.

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A Tight Senate Race (For Today)

Public Policy has just released the first poll I have seen on the race between Ed Markey and Gabriel Gomez, and it shows a tight race. I discussed this race on air with WCAP morning host Ted Panos before I read this poll, and my predictions of a relatively easy Democratic win may need to be revisited. But the very close race has some underlying numbers that still show how difficult it will be for Gabriel Gomez to win this race. The numbers please.

The head to head match-up shows Ed Markey leading Gabriel Gomez by a 44%-40% margin, tighter than many might have anticipated. Another piece of good news for Republicans is the Ed Markey favorable/unfavorable numbers, which are somewhat ominous for Markey, with 44% favorable, 41% unfavorable, and 15% undecided. That high unfavorable rating is an inviting target for Gomez, who could, with early money, try to drive it to the 50% mark. Gomez has a 41% favorable, with a 27% unfavorable, and 32% undecided. I think it would be expected that a 30 year veteran of elective politics would have a higher unfavorable number than a newcomer. How that changes will depend on the campaign, and each campaigns ability to invest early money to define the opposition.

Of course I must go where I always go, to the “independent” voter. In order for any Republican to win this race the margins with independents must be fairly large. Gomez currently leads with independents by a 47% to 31% margin. While the Public Policy narrative seems impressed with this, it is not enough of a margin. Gomez is also holding over 20% of Democrats, impressive and necessary for him if he is to have a chance at victory. But I remind that Scott Brown, in his race with Elizabeth Warren, held some Democratic support early in that race. A concerted, and expensive, effort was undertaken to separate Brown from that Democratic support. It worked. Look for some investment by the Markey campaign to bring those Democrats back home. Public Policy, in the press release, highlighted some of advantages they see for Ed Markey:

The good news for Markey in the poll beyond the obvious fact that he’s in the lead is that Barack Obama remains pretty popular in the state. He has a 53/41 approval rating. Obama was at only 44/43 when Brown won in 2010 and the President’s lack of popularity was a big contributor to the upset. He’s in a much better position this time around. The pool of undecided voters also sets up well for Markey- they voted for Obama by 18 points in November, 32% are liberals compared to only 25% who are conservatives, and 61% of them are women. Those are all demographics that ought to end up favorable to him in the end.

Some truth there, but it is not a Presidential election cycle, which is advantage Gomez. I still make Markey a 3-1 betting favorite, and as I said to Teddy Panos Gomez will require some major infusions of cash in order to overcome the Democratic home field advantage. And he will need it early, before the Markey financial edge manages to define him for the electorate.

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Interview- Rep. Marcos Devers on Lawrence Mayoral Run

State Representative Marcos Devers came on the Manzi in the Morning show to talk about his newly announced candidacy for Mayor of Lawrence, thoughts on incumbent Mayor William Lantigua, as well as public safety, local aid, and the budget. Rep. Devers has served as an interim Mayor, and would have to be considered a major player in this race. My thanks to the Rep. for taking the time to come on.

http://yourlisten.com/swf/Player.swf?id=16978768

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New Hampshire Casinos? Interview with Jim Rubens.

Manzi in the Morning (Every Wednesday 980 am WCAP AT 10:00 AM) had Jim Rubens, Chairman of the Granite State Coalition Against Expanded Gambling on to discuss the potential for casino gaming in New Hampshire yesterday. Mr. Rubens has a strong anti-casino viewpoint, but comes at the issue armed with statistics and arguments that help to advance that position. In this segment we talked about the inclusion of casino licensing money in Governor Hassan’s budget, the size of the potential casino at Rockingham Park and whether that casino would be a true “destination” casino that would attract customers from outside New Hampshire, the “social costs” of gambling, and whether those costs would outweigh any potential tax revenues from casino gaming, and the types of jobs that a casino would bring to New Hampshire. Mr. Rubens also talked about the New Hampshire House budget, crafted by the Democratic majority, that omits the casino licensing money recommended by the Governor. Take a listen, as no matter what your thoughts on casinos you will be informed by the information provided. My thanks to Jim Rubens for taking the time to come on and give us his views. The website for his group is at www.noslots.com

http://yourlisten.com/swf/Player.swf?id=16978371

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Interview with Lawrence Mayoral Candidate James Patrick O'Donoghue

My interview, on the Manzi in the Morning Radio Program, on WCAP, 980 am, with Lawrence Mayoral candidate James Patrick O’Donoghue. We talked about transit oriented development for the City, the issues surrounding public safety funding for fire services, the municipal budget, and the Lawrence School system,as well as some other important issues. I am hoping to have Rep. Marcose Devers on my program next week, and of course hope I can get every candidate on to talk about the important issues facing the City. My thanks to James Patrick for his time, and his willingness to come on and exchange ideas.

http://yourlisten.com/swf/Player.swf?id=16976282

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Lynch Markey WBZ Debate

The link to the Lynch-Markey debate, held last night, which was a bit more animated than the prior debates.

http://CBSBOS.images.worldnow.com/interface/js/WNVideo.js?rnd=262180;hostDomain=video.boston.cbslocal.com;playerWidth=385;playerHeight=288;isShowIcon=true;clipId=8799588;flvUri=;partnerclipid=;adTag=News;advertisingZone=CBS.BOSTON%252Fworldnowplayer;enableAds=true;landingPage=;islandingPageoverride=false;playerType=STANDARD_EMBEDDEDscript;controlsType=fixed

http://CBSBOS.images.worldnow.com/interface/js/WNVideo.js?rnd=443717;hostDomain=video.boston.cbslocal.com;playerWidth=385;playerHeight=288;isShowIcon=true;clipId=8799685;flvUri=;partnerclipid=;adTag=News;advertisingZone=CBS.BOSTON%252Fworldnowplayer;enableAds=true;landingPage=;islandingPageoverride=false;playerType=STANDARD_EMBEDDEDscript;controlsType=fixed

http://CBSBOS.images.worldnow.com/interface/js/WNVideo.js?rnd=262674;hostDomain=video.boston.cbslocal.com;playerWidth=385;playerHeight=288;isShowIcon=true;clipId=8799745;flvUri=;partnerclipid=;adTag=News;advertisingZone=CBS.BOSTON%252Fworldnowplayer;enableAds=true;landingPage=;islandingPageoverride=false;playerType=STANDARD_EMBEDDEDscript;controlsType=fixed

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A Difficult Week

I have managed to be flu-stricken for the past few days, as Boston, Massachusetts, and our Country endured a heinous act of terror. The despicable actions, and the truly heartbreaking personal losses, unify us in a bond that is unbreakable by terrorists, be they individuals, religious fanatics, or agents of a foreign organization. The press coverage has been thorough, and while certainly not perfect I think it is reflective of society wanting answers in minutes, and not hours.

Some observations:

The public safety response has been terrific in every sense. There will always be second guessing, but I think the coordinated response of local, state, and federal law enforcement has to get an A+. Most of the press will center on the Federal and State figures, and they deserve, in my opinion, top marks. But a special shout out to Watertown Police Chief Edward Deveau, who runs a relatively small police department, but came through as a true professional working in a Department undersized by manpower standards, but every bit as big in heart and effort as their federal, state, and Boston partners.

The FBI Agent in Charge in Boston, Richard DesLauriers, brought to me a sense of real confidence that this act of terrorism would be solved. It is a unique ability to instill confidence by demeanor, but DesLauriers certainly strikes me as someone who is a no nonsense professional. Top marks to the FBI for their cooperative methodology in working with Boston Commissioner Ed Davis, and the State Police and Colonel Tim Alben, as well as the Watertown P.D.

The size of the police contingent on patrol in Watertown was very small (four patrolman, one supervisor)on the night of the firefight. It is similar to so many cities in Massachusetts, where police manpower has been cut to adjust to new budgetary realities. It is not just a firefight with terrorists that can show manpower to be short on occasion, but everyday occurrences in cities the size of Watertown.

Being a police officer, regardless of jurisdiction, is still a dangerous profession. Richard Donohue, a Boston Transit Officer, is recovering from major injuries inflicted by gunfire, and Officer Sean Collier died at the hands of a terrorist ambush. Our hearts and prayers go out to their families, whose lives will never be the same.

There should be more correspondents like NBC’s Pete Williams, who gives the story he has, with no nonsense or hyperbole. A throwback correspondent in that he doesn’t bring “flair”, but just good reporting. That is contrasted with the media dead enders, who cannot help but to use a tragedy to put forth a political agenda, and actually try to sow discord at a time when unity should be the goal.

I was struck, as someone who looks through Facebook postings, at the extreme bitterness of some. There is indeed a big political divide in the country, and no tragedy will bridge political differences. But there will be plenty of time to criticize President Obama, or Governor Patrick, or others. I am amazed, and saddened, by political attacks designed to stoke division and hatred, be they from left or right, at a time when our nation is under attack. There will be some difficult questions asked, and they should be asked. But using this tragedy for political purposes strikes me as immature and self indulgent.

There has been much arguing over the “rights” of the captured accused. The arguing goes to show that some are not interested in facts, but rather prefer to use the issue to score some political points. U.S. law allows an “exception” based on public safety/national security, to the “Miranda” rule. Authorities are now utilizing that exception to question the suspect in order to secure information that may be immediately beneficial to the safety of the public, or the national security interests of the United States. The exception is narrowly drawn, and extremely finite in time. This exception will end soon, and the suspect will be tried in a civilian court according to U.S. law. The exception, in my opinion, is narrow enough to afford a potential defendant his constitutional rights, while allowing public safety personnel the ability, within the law, to protect the public. U.S. law does not allow a U.S. citizen to be held as an “enemy combatant”, or tried outside of the civilian court system, so the argument that the Obama Administration ought to proceed along those lines is simply uninformed.

This is a federal case, and unless there is some vital intel that can be traded, it should be a death penalty case. I realize that Massachusetts is a non-death penalty state, and some deference may be given to that. But this case extends beyond Massachusetts, with a sure message that actions of this type will be dealt with surely and swiftly. I have never been a death penalty advocate, but this case certainly is one where that penalty is not only appropriate, but in my opinion, necessary.

Boston is our city, and a community that takes great pride in itself, and in its most important commodity, its people. The bombing was a terrible tragedy, pointed at one of the days that Boston celebrates itself, an attempted knockout blow. But the people of Boston are simply too strong to be stopped, too resolute to lose faith, and they have a collective jaw of iron. Terror struck a horrible blow, but Boston will recover, prosper, and become stronger in the months and years to come.

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