calPERS Lays Out the Issues

Since I posted on the Stockton and San Bernadino bankruptcy cases yesterday I have bumped into a video produced by calPERS that gives the viewpoint they hold on those cases. As I mentioned yesterday these cases may produce groundbreaking law on pensions and municipal debt, with all of the stakeholders getting ready for a pretty tough fight. calPERS will be throwing considerable resources into that fight.

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Municipal Bankruptcy: Pensions, Bonds and Big Stakes in California

California has had two major municipal bankruptcies in the past year, and both are being watched very closely by “interested parties” throughout the country. Novel legal issues are at stake in both Stockton and San Bernadino, with federal bankruptcy judges likely to issue rulings that will have significant ramifications for public pensions as well as the municipal bond market.

The question of what happened to these two cities before bankruptcy is a critical one, but not where we are going to start. Both cities have filed for federal bankruptcy protection, and both have had opposition to those filings. Within those filings lay some difficult legal questions that ultimately will be determined by federal bankruptcy courts.

Stockton has continued to pay its pension obligations (to calPERS), leading bondholders to file in opposition to that city’s bankruptcy petition. San Bernadino, on the other hand, stopped its pension payments (to calPERS), which has led to calPERS creating significant legal obstacles for the City, including strong opposition to the bankruptcy filing. As of this date a federal judge has allowed Stockton to proceed into federal bankruptcy protection over the objection of bondholders, while San Bernadino has not as of yet been approved for the same. The consensus appears to be that Stockton has been better managed through the bankruptcy process, with the City Manager asserting control over the process, and delivering results. But the legal positioning, placing bondholders and calPERS on a collision course, will not be solved by good management. Ben Feder of the “Bankruptcy Law Insights Blog” summed up the legal issues involved in that battle:

“The issues at stake — whether California state laws protecting public employee pension obligations are pre-empted and superseded by Congress’s Article I, Section 8 authority to establish uniform laws regarding bankruptcy, or are protected under the Tenth Amendment — implicate fundamental issues of federalism, and in all likelihood the Supreme Court will eventually need to resolve the questions being raised regarding the proper balance between state and federal power … .

“The [most] complicated question is whether priorities for unsecured claims created under state law — particularly regarding obligors that are themselves governmental units — can trump the distribution mechanisms of the U.S. Bankruptcy Code, and the Code’s underlying purpose of providing similar treatment for similarly situated creditors. Numerous states in addition to California have varying degrees of protection for public employee pension obligations. (Rhode Island, on the other hand, recently took the opposite tack and enacted a law that gave priority to bondholders in the Central Falls Chapter 9 cases.)

“Calpers will argue that the preference under California law for public employee< pension obligations is protected under the Tenth Amendment. San Bernardino’s bond investors will argue that the Bankruptcy Code expressly sets forth the priority of certain types of unsecured claims, that no other unsecured claims are entitled to more favorable treatment, and that California law regarding public employee pension obligations is pre-empted by the Supremacy Clause of the Constitution.”

And so the battle is joined, with calPERS, if you judge by the rulings, appearing to have the upper hand. San Bernadino has added to that perception by filing an FY 14 budget that will begin paying calPERS again. The full FY13 obligation of San Bernadino to calPERS is $25.5 million, 21% of total revenue for the City. No word from the City on how they plan to pay back the arrears, which could total over $15 million by the time they start paying into the fund again. That obligation is going to be vigorously contested, as calPERS will attempt to prevent the City from entering bankruptcy and applying a haircut to that unpaid pension obligation.

The decision in the case of Stockton, to allow the City to proceed into Chapter 9 bankruptcy proceedings, has been analyzed by many, with all looking to read the tea leaves as to what Judge Christopher Klein really thought about the ultimate status of calPERS. Many who are looking to the federal bankruptcy proceedings to bring “pension reform” to Stockton were encouraged by some of the verbiage in Judge Klein’s ruling. Some of the reports I read claim that Judge Klein, in his decision, referred to calPERS as a “garden variety creditor.” That is simply not true, and it is a very important point.The Judge pointed out that one of the objectors would like to classify calPERS in that fashion. Judge Klein highlighted some of the financial issues that compelled Stockton to seek Chapter 9 protection, and he did not exempt pension practices.

And some of the problems were also rooted in generous retirement practices. The pensions, of course, are
themselves a form of implicit compensation. Pensions were allowed to be based on the final year of compensation, and
only the final year of compensation, and that compensation could include essentially an unlimited accrued vacation and sick leave. So it was possible to engage in the phenomenon that’s become known as “pension spiking,” in which a pension can wind up being substantially greater than the annual salary that the retiree ever had. And there’s been a number of those situations that have come into public view,generally, not entirely from Stockton, as part of a debate
that seems to be going on in the larger community. In any event, pension spiking was an issue in Stockton because Stockton’s obligations to CalPERS were based on the amount of pensions that were having to be paid out. So projected pension expenses in particular were soaring.

So Judge Klein recognized that poor pension practices were part of the problem. Judge Klein also took note of the some of the pension changes made through modifications to existing collective bargaining agreements that benefited the City through the mandatory pre-Chapter 9 mediation process. That process was ignored by bondholders, which ultimately undercut their legal position in opposition to Chapter 9 for the City. But what did he say about the Stockton obligation to calPERS, and the position of bondholders (more specifically bond insurers) that the City ought to immediately haircut this obligation?

This does not mean that there’s not potentially a serious issue involving CalPERS. But at this point, I do
not know what that is. I do not know whether spiked pensions can be reeled back in. There are very complex and difficult questions of law that I could see out there on the horizon, but no plan of adjustment can be confirmed unless — no plan of adjustment can be confirmed over the rejection by a particular class unless that plan does not discriminate unfairly and is fair and equitable with respect to each class of claims that is impaired under or has not
accepted a plan. That’s section 1129(b)(1) of the Bankruptcy Code, which, by virtue of section 901, applies in
chapter 9 cases. So the protection for the Capital Market Creditors is in the plan confirmation process. If a plan is proposed that does not deal with CalPERS and if the Capital Market Creditors reject their treatment under the proposed plan, then I will have to focus on the question of unfair discrimination. And the gravamen of the argument that the Capital Markets Creditors make is one of unfair discrimination. But that is not an eligibility question to be a problem at this stage of the case. To the contrary, it is a plan confirmation problem. And the City is going to have a difficult time confirming a plan over an objection and claim of unfair discrimination without being able to explain that problem away. And that problem is probably going to require me to get down into the nitty-gritty of the CalPERS situation. And I, at this point, have no clue how that’s going to come out, but that is the protection.

(emphasis added)

So Judge Klein acknowledges the difficult legal issues involved with attempts to modify the City obligation to calPERS. Judge Klein had made a strong point in his decision to highlight the legal principle that federal bankruptcy proceedings are all about modifying contractual obligations, and certainly supersede state law:

….what chapter 9 brings to the table that is not in state law is the exclusive power of the Congress under the Constitution to make uniform laws concerning bankruptcy. And uniform laws concerning bankruptcy mean impairment of contracts. The contracts clause of the United States Constitution says that no state may make a law impairing the obligation of contracts. And that limitation does not apply to Congress. And, for the reasons I explained in that decision, the asymmetry is absolutely intentional on the part of the founders, the framers of the Constitution, because bankruptcy is nothing but the impairment of contracts. I’ve been doing this job for more than 25 years. I’ve had more than 138,000 bankruptcy cases. I’ve been party to impairment of millions of contracts and it’s all constitutional. And I explained in that decision also that a parallel contracts clause in the state constitution must give way to the Bankruptcy Code, to the power of the Congress under the Supremacy Clause of the Constitution;
perfectly straightforward, garden variety constitutional law proposition.

For those on either side of this issue to cite Judge Klein’s decision to allow Stockton to go forward into Chapter 9 as a victory would simply be, in my opinion, overly optimistic. It is the beginning of the process, and these issues are complex and not easy to untangle. One thing that comes through to me, after reading the decision, is the victory by Stockton City Manager Bob Deis, who produced the complex documents and plans necessary to get Stockton into Chapter 9. A thoroughly professional job. A second item of note is the poor legal work of lawyers representing bond insurers. The Judge was not overly impressed with their arguments as to why Stockton should be stopped from entering Chapter 9, and their position on mandatory mediation badly undercut their own position.

The last issue to be discussed in this overly long post is the modification, by Stockton, of payments by the City to fund retiree health care costs. The City, in its pendency plan, modified (lowered or eliminated)payments for retiree health care costs. The retirees sought injunctive relief from the terms of the City plan before Judge Klein, who ruled last year that the City could in fact move forward with the modification(s), denying the petition for relief. The retirees will have to participate in the Chapter 9 proceedings in order to protect this claim, but it should be noted that the legal argument that these collective bargaining contracts will be sacrosanct in a federal bankruptcy proceeding did not hold up in an initial legal test. (Association of Retired Employees of the City of Stockton v. City of Stockton).

Lots more to come on these very important cases. While each state is different (Chapter 9 allowed by some and not others)there will be critical legal issues determined by federal bankruptcy judges that will likely end up before the Supreme Court. Those determinations will have some major impacts not just on the legal status of pension obligations but on municipal bond markets as well.

The three page Stockton restructuring proposal here.

The full Stockton restructuring plan submitted through mediation. (File 1 of 3)

Stockton Restructuring Proposal submitted through mediation. (File 2 of 3)

Stockton restructuring proposal submitted through mediation (File 3 of 3).

San Bernadino Press Release on Stopping Payments to calPERS.

City of San Bernadino Pendency Plan.

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Manzi in the Morning- Bryan Sweet Interview

Bryan Sweet came on the show to talk about his announcement that he is a candidate for Methuen School Committee. That race should be interesting, as term limits and voluntary departures will create a large number of openings. Bryan has been a member of the High School Building Committee since its inception, as well as being the Chair of the local Democratic Town Committee. He is a first time candidate, and brings great talent and caring about our school children to the race. I hope we will be able to host a forum for the School Committee candidates on WCAP. More on that later. My thanks to Bryan Sweet for taking the time to come on.

http://yourlisten.com/swf/Player.swf?id=16981466

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Manzi in the Morning- Phil Lahey

Phil Lahey, the host of the cable access show “The Empty Chair” came on the radio program this week to talk about addiction, the very real pain caused when a family member suffers from this disease, his own experience with his daughter who became addicted to narcotics, and the support available to both addicts and family members. Phil has a real world perspective on this problem, and his show is a must see. It is produced right here at the studios of Methuen Community T.V., and is available on You Tube.The show has a facebook page , and Phil is available to talk to folks who might be able to benefit from his experience. The show features his daughter Colleen, and is a great personal story of success in the long fight against addiction. My thanks to Phil Lahey for taking the time to come on the show.

http://yourlisten.com/swf/Player.swf?id=16980774

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Suffolk Polling on MA Senate- Markey Leads

Suffolk pollster David Paleologos has tonight released his first MA Senate poll, and it shows a substantial lead for Democrat Ed Markey over Republican Gabriel Gomez.From the Suffolk press release:

“Ed Markey begins this race where he left off with his win in the Democratic Primary: exceeding expectations,” said David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center in Boston. “The early perception immediately after the party primaries was that Markey was vulnerable. These findings suggest the opposite of a close race – that Ed Markey begins the sprint to June with a large lead over his Republican opponent who voters are unsure about.”

I had done a posting on a PPP survey that had Markey with a 4 point lead right after the primary election, but Paleologos shows a substantially different race. Lets look at some of the numbers.

Markey shows up with a 53% favorable rating, with 30% unfavorable, substantially better than the PPP poll. Gomez is at 38% favorable, 23% unfavorable, and a large 32% undecided. Markey will be attempting to mold that 32% by defining Gomez with some early money.

In the head to head match-up Markey leads Gomez by a 52% to 35% margin, with 11% undecided. I am a little surprised to see that margin this early, and it certainly is a bad omen for Gomez. Some other interesting numbers that will have some bearing on this race: (or I just found them interesting)

President Obama has a 67% favorable rating in Massachusetts. The next time you hear Ed Markey say he wants to go to the U.S. Senate to promote President Obama’s agenda think of that number.

The survey asked who the respondent would vote for if they were in the booth today. That number of course does not count the leaners that the main question includes. Those numbers show a 27% to 22% lead for Markey, with 45% undecided. If Gomez was looking for a shred of hope maybe that number could give him some, but I would not be filled with optimism (based on these numbers) if I were Gomez.

Another interesting question that may merit additional discussion, is the perception of Markey’s independence. Paleologos asked: “As a U.S. Senator, do you think Ed Markey will be an independent voice or
toe the Democratic party line?” 58% said Markey would toe the party line, 29% said independent voice, and 14% were undecided. As we look at the Sanford win in South Carolina, and the looming win for Ed Markey in Massachusetts it appears that Washington may in fact be a better reflection of the electorate than we would all like to admit. Only 29% believe Ed Markey is an “independent voice”, but he is on the verge of a big win. We move ever closer to a de facto parliamentary system.

The so called “peoples pledge” was an important issue for 71% of the respondents, with 48% rating it as “very important”. Another tool in the Markey arsenal, and one that you will be hearing much more about in the days and weeks ahead.

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Upsizing the Rockingham Casino

The Eagle Tribune carried a story this week talking about Millennium Gaming’s plan to create a larger casino at Rockingham Park that would include restaurants and even a concert facility that would seat 1500. With the New Hampshire Senate having passed a casino bill (SB152) that makes licensing contingent on an investment of $425 million it might appear to some that the existing requirement would suffice to build a “destination” casino. But a look at the “fine print” of that bill has shown otherwise, as the $425 million requirement includes deductions for “land acquisition” and “infrastructure costs”, as well as a full deduction for the $80 million license fee. After deducting the $80 million the requirement comes down to $345 million, less land acquisition and infrastructure. In reality, under this legislation, the casino mandate could drop as low as $250 million, which would be no more than an expensive slots parlor. I have had Daniel Barrick, of the New Hampshire Center for Public Policy Studies on my WCAP Radio Program to talk about this issue, and what the size of a casino might mean for post-construction jobs. The report issued by the Center discussed the issue:

Current legislation (SB 152) requires a minimum $425 million investment. However, as detailed earlier, the $80m license fee can be subtracted from that amount, for a net minimum investment of $345 million. In addition, the legislation also allows developers to include the cost of purchasing or leasing land for the casino site in their total investment. But assuming a $345 million investment, we would expect to see approximately 1,700 jobs, according to the estimated relationship between investment and staffing. Whether these jobs are “new” jobs is a matter of debate. Economists have examined expanded gambling as an economic development strategy, as well as a state revenue generator. The Federal Reserve Bank of Boston was asked to study this question in 2006, and found that the local
economic benefit of having a casino is likely to be quite small, and depends almost entirely on whether the casino is truly attracting “new” economic activity into the local area surrounding the casino, beyond the goods and services demanded by the casino itself.

I also discussed the issue with Jim Rubens, the Chair of the Granite State Coalition Against Expanded Gambling, when he appeared on my show. Rubens highlighted the same issue, as well as a few others, in his appearance. With the investment requirement of SB152 clearly deficient Millennium has stepped up to answer the criticism by proposing the “upsize” highlighted in the Tribune story. The new number unveiled by Millennium is $600 million, with additions of a hotel, theater, and restaurants. Whether that $600 million is “casino investment”, or total investment, is not clear to me, although Millennium did a public presentation at Rockingham Park on the new plan. As you might expect Jim Rubens has criticized the new plan, but has also raised some important questions in a press release issued by the Granite State Coalition. From his press release:

Over the past two weeks, the special House casino committee has closely examined SB152, the casino bill written by lobbyists for Las Vegas-based Millennium Gaming. Skepticism about the bill among even pro-casino legislators has mounted to the point where Millennium is being forced to make yet loftier promises, today that it will spend $600 million on its proposed Salem casino.”Casino developers consistently overpromise delivery dates, casino amenities, tax revenue, and regulatory compliance to get casinos legalized and to win licenses,” said Jim Rubens, chair of Granite State Coalition Against Expanded Gambling. “If Millennium and its lobbyists want to overcome the skepticism, they should write the promises into their bill.”

So Rubens calls for SB152 to be amended to change the required investment to the $600 million, in line with the new Millennium commitment. But he also gets to that other key point: will the investment number be less the offsets allowed by SB152 (License fee, land acquisition, infrastructure)? From the Coalition press release:

…disclose the infrastructure and site acquisition cost deducts from the promised $600 million (Millennium paid $200 million for the derelict Meadows race track site)

There is political momentum with the pro-casino forces, who have won a local referendum in Salem, and have Governor Hassan pushing hard for this legislation. Despite that momentum passage in the New Hampshire House remains an open question, with the vote looking too close to call. If the pro-casino political operation that was surprised by the opposition of a sitting Attorney General of New Hampshire at the Senate hearing for SB152 is in charge of House passage then maybe the anti-casino forces have a real shot at victory. One thing we know for sure: There is no LBJ in that pro-casino group.

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A Tight Senate Race (For Today)

Public Policy has just released the first poll I have seen on the race between Ed Markey and Gabriel Gomez, and it shows a tight race. I discussed this race on air with WCAP morning host Ted Panos before I read this poll, and my predictions of a relatively easy Democratic win may need to be revisited. But the very close race has some underlying numbers that still show how difficult it will be for Gabriel Gomez to win this race. The numbers please.

The head to head match-up shows Ed Markey leading Gabriel Gomez by a 44%-40% margin, tighter than many might have anticipated. Another piece of good news for Republicans is the Ed Markey favorable/unfavorable numbers, which are somewhat ominous for Markey, with 44% favorable, 41% unfavorable, and 15% undecided. That high unfavorable rating is an inviting target for Gomez, who could, with early money, try to drive it to the 50% mark. Gomez has a 41% favorable, with a 27% unfavorable, and 32% undecided. I think it would be expected that a 30 year veteran of elective politics would have a higher unfavorable number than a newcomer. How that changes will depend on the campaign, and each campaigns ability to invest early money to define the opposition.

Of course I must go where I always go, to the “independent” voter. In order for any Republican to win this race the margins with independents must be fairly large. Gomez currently leads with independents by a 47% to 31% margin. While the Public Policy narrative seems impressed with this, it is not enough of a margin. Gomez is also holding over 20% of Democrats, impressive and necessary for him if he is to have a chance at victory. But I remind that Scott Brown, in his race with Elizabeth Warren, held some Democratic support early in that race. A concerted, and expensive, effort was undertaken to separate Brown from that Democratic support. It worked. Look for some investment by the Markey campaign to bring those Democrats back home. Public Policy, in the press release, highlighted some of advantages they see for Ed Markey:

The good news for Markey in the poll beyond the obvious fact that he’s in the lead is that Barack Obama remains pretty popular in the state. He has a 53/41 approval rating. Obama was at only 44/43 when Brown won in 2010 and the President’s lack of popularity was a big contributor to the upset. He’s in a much better position this time around. The pool of undecided voters also sets up well for Markey- they voted for Obama by 18 points in November, 32% are liberals compared to only 25% who are conservatives, and 61% of them are women. Those are all demographics that ought to end up favorable to him in the end.

Some truth there, but it is not a Presidential election cycle, which is advantage Gomez. I still make Markey a 3-1 betting favorite, and as I said to Teddy Panos Gomez will require some major infusions of cash in order to overcome the Democratic home field advantage. And he will need it early, before the Markey financial edge manages to define him for the electorate.

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Interview- Rep. Marcos Devers on Lawrence Mayoral Run

State Representative Marcos Devers came on the Manzi in the Morning show to talk about his newly announced candidacy for Mayor of Lawrence, thoughts on incumbent Mayor William Lantigua, as well as public safety, local aid, and the budget. Rep. Devers has served as an interim Mayor, and would have to be considered a major player in this race. My thanks to the Rep. for taking the time to come on.

http://yourlisten.com/swf/Player.swf?id=16978768

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New Hampshire Casinos? Interview with Jim Rubens.

Manzi in the Morning (Every Wednesday 980 am WCAP AT 10:00 AM) had Jim Rubens, Chairman of the Granite State Coalition Against Expanded Gambling on to discuss the potential for casino gaming in New Hampshire yesterday. Mr. Rubens has a strong anti-casino viewpoint, but comes at the issue armed with statistics and arguments that help to advance that position. In this segment we talked about the inclusion of casino licensing money in Governor Hassan’s budget, the size of the potential casino at Rockingham Park and whether that casino would be a true “destination” casino that would attract customers from outside New Hampshire, the “social costs” of gambling, and whether those costs would outweigh any potential tax revenues from casino gaming, and the types of jobs that a casino would bring to New Hampshire. Mr. Rubens also talked about the New Hampshire House budget, crafted by the Democratic majority, that omits the casino licensing money recommended by the Governor. Take a listen, as no matter what your thoughts on casinos you will be informed by the information provided. My thanks to Jim Rubens for taking the time to come on and give us his views. The website for his group is at www.noslots.com

http://yourlisten.com/swf/Player.swf?id=16978371

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Interview with Lawrence Mayoral Candidate James Patrick O'Donoghue

My interview, on the Manzi in the Morning Radio Program, on WCAP, 980 am, with Lawrence Mayoral candidate James Patrick O’Donoghue. We talked about transit oriented development for the City, the issues surrounding public safety funding for fire services, the municipal budget, and the Lawrence School system,as well as some other important issues. I am hoping to have Rep. Marcose Devers on my program next week, and of course hope I can get every candidate on to talk about the important issues facing the City. My thanks to James Patrick for his time, and his willingness to come on and exchange ideas.

http://yourlisten.com/swf/Player.swf?id=16976282

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