Globe Calls a Dead Heat

Yes another survey, with the Boston Globe showing Charlie Baker pulling into a dead heat with Deval Patrick. In the Globe survey Patrick was at 35%, Baker 34%, Cahill 11%, Jill Stein 4%, and 14% were undecided. I did not see a cross tab for right track-wrong track voters, but there were a couple of important differences between these results and the Western Mass poll that I posted on a couple of days ago.

1) Gender In this survey there is a slight advantage for the Governor with females. Governor Patrick leads 36% to 32% amongst females, while Baker leads 36% to 33% with men. If these numbers are correct a natural advantage for the Governor is dissipating.

2) Independents. This survey shows Charlie Baker with a 19 point lead amongst independents. As I said in my earlier post just winning in this category will not be enough for Baker. He needs a Scott Brown type rout of the Governor with independents. Cahill garners 14% in this category, and despite a cross tab showing his voters split evenly between Baker and Patrick I believe he hurts Baker in this category. If Cahill falls into single digits with independents (which is more likely by the day) then the rout may be on in this category for Baker, and that will be an ominous turn for Governor Patrick.

Read the Globe story here.

The cross tabs are attached below.

globe-poll-sunday

Posted in State News | Tagged , , , | 1 Comment

Rep. Campbell at The Annual Salute to the Gold Star Mothers Ceremony

Thanks to Rep. Linda Dean Campbell, who attended today’s event at the Lawrence Municipal Airport.

A large crowd gathered at Lawrence Municipal Airport on Sunday, September 26, 2010 to honor the family members of fallen Massachusetts service members. Thanks to the efforts of local Veterans Service Officers, and many local groups supporting veterans such as “Support our Troops”, this has become an annual tradition in the Merrimack Valley. The names of all Merrimack Service Members killed in combat since Vietnam were read aloud as a bell tolled. After all the names were read, there was a rifle salute and the playing of Taps.
The weather was perfect for parachutists who jumped in unfurling the American and POW Flags during their descent. These flags were displayed at the ceremony.

According to Representative Linda Dean Campbell, Vice Chair of the Committee on Veterans and Federal Affairs, “the event was somber, but at the same time, family members of deceased service members were clearly comforted by being together.” Major General Carter, the Adjutant General of the Massachusetts National Guard, along with U. S. Senator Scott Brown, State Senator Stephen Baddour and State Representative Barbara L’ Italien were also in attendance.

As a result of legislation recently passed into law, family members were presented with the “Massachusetts Medal of Liberty”, symbolic of the Purple Heart Medal given to members of our Armed Forces. This recent legislation provides Massachusetts Service Members a “Welcome Home Bonus” for multiple combat tours as well credit for transferring certain military skills to civilian occupations. Family members and Service Members needing additional information should contact their local Veteran Services Officer.

Rep. Campbell , Celeste Vincente, Sen. Scott Brown, Sen. Steve Baddour

Posted in Methuen, State News | Tagged , | Leave a comment

New Governors Race Poll

Western New England College just completed a new Governor’s race survey, and the results mirror all recent polling. Governor Patrick is holding the lead, at 39%, with Charlie Baker close behind at 33% and Tim Cahill out of striking range at 16%. I have attached the poll below. Some numbers I find of interest in the survey.

1) Independents. For me the key category. Baker leads Patrick by 12 points in this category (40% to 28%). But that margin is just not enough. Scott Brown slaughtered Martha Coakley in this category, beating her by over 2 to 1 (by memory folks) and Baker needs to drive this number up if he hopes to win. But he is blocked from a category rout by Tim Cahill, who is grabbing 21% of independents. For those wondering why Baker is fixated on Cahill this number is one of your key answers.

2) Right Track- Wrong Track. Governor Patrick has seen the number of voters who believe the state is “on the right track” go up slightly, while the voters who think we are on the “wrong track” has gone down some. Some good news there for the Governor. But the real story lies in how those folks respond in the survey. Lets take a look. “Right track” voters favor Deval Patrick by a whopping 75% to 8% margin, with both Cahill and Baker receiving 8%. Now let us look at the “wrong track” voters. Baker leads in that category, receiving 49%, to 16% for Patrick, and 21% for Cahill. Hard for me to figure that Patrick would receive much more than his current 16% in this category from voters who think we are “on the wrong track” if Cahill were out. The numbers are almost identical in reverse to the right track numbers, but Cahill’s presence in the race prevents Baker from piling up the type of numbers in this category that Patrick compiles in the “right track” category. For those wondering why Baker is fixated on Cahill this number is another clear cut answer.

3) Gender. Baker is getting whipped hard amongst female voters, losing to Patrick 41% to 25%, with Cahill third at 20%. Don’t think you can blame this one on Cahill. Going to have to blame the Baker campaign for the gender gap. Baker can win with this spread, but not without improvement in the other two areas. But his job would certainly be made easier if he could close that number in some way.

Baker will count on an ad onslaught against the Governor (in the next two weeks) to further drive Patrick negatives, and he is also counting on a collapse in support for Tim Cahill on election day. But Cahill has $2 million or so to spend on ads, and I would have to say that Charlie Baker will be the recipient of some negativity from Cahill with that money. The Governor will come swinging as well. The margin seems so close for Baker, but he just hasn’t been able to get over the hump. And that window is closing faster than it appears. The next two weeks are make or break for Charlie Baker. The edge right now is with the Governor. The new ads from Deval Patrick and Charlie Baker are below.

wnec-poll

Posted in State News | Tagged , , , | 1 Comment

President Obama on the Economy

The President on the state of the economy, with some hard shots at the Republicans. Obviously there are pretty severe disagreements, but lets look at some of the key points.

1) Should there be tax breaks for companies that ship jobs overseas?

2) Should the Bush era tax cuts be extended? If so should the top wage brackets be included? If yes please explain the impact on the deficit.

The attack on the Republican Pledge comes from the right as well. From Erik Erikson over at the “Red State” blog.

The plan wants to put “government on the path to a balanced budget” without doing anything substantive. There is a promise to “immediately reduce spending” by cutting off stimulus funds. Wow. Exciting.

There is a plan to cut Congress’s budget, which is pretty much what was promised in 1994. Seriously? In 4 years did the Democrats really blow up the Congressional budget? No — the GOP did that too.

There is no call for a Spending Limitation Amendment or a Balanced Budget Amendment. It is just meaningless stuff the Democrats can easily undo and that ultimately the Senate GOP will even turn its nose up at.

My earlier post only dealt with the deficit as an issue with the Republican Pledge, and I continue on that track here. Erikson states the obvious. The Republican “Pledge” speaks in platitudes on the deficit, but offers nothing that would actually reduce the deficit. The Tea Party folks know Republican nonsense when they hear it, and the Pledge, in terms of deficit reduction, is hokey. The Republican leadership in Washington, in their heart of hearts, believes the same thing that Dick Cheney believes. Deficits don’t matter! Especially when it comes to tax cuts.

Richard Nixon famously said that “We are all Keynesians now.” And the Republican plans are based on priming the pump through deficit spending via the tax cut model. I like to highlight their hypocrisy on the deficit because the Washington Republicans have been so vocal in their criticism of the Obama Administration for priming the pump through the stimulus program. But their economic model, while vastly different in key respects, is really the same when it comes to the deficit. Which really makes their criticism on deficits nonsensical.

Democrats have their own issues on this subject, and they too will run from the necessary reforms once the Presidential Deficit Commission reports its findings. But for now it is the Republicans making bold claims without being able to even slightly back them up.

Read the Erikson blog post here.

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged , | Leave a comment

Cahill's Road to Nowhere

Tim Cahill, mired deeply in third place in all polls, has suffered a public relations embarrassment with the announcement by John Weaver that he is leaving the Cahill campaign. Weaver, best known nationally for his close association with John McCain, not only said he was leaving, but that Cahill’s continued presence in the race was only helping Deval Patrick. He said what has been obvious from the polling data. Cahill cannot win this race. From the Herald:

“It’s clear to me the choice is between Charlie Baker and Gov. (Deval) Patrick,” Weaver told the Herald last night. “I don’t want to be a party by helping Tim to in effect, help reelect one of the most liberal governors in the country, and that’s Gov. Patrick.”

He added: “I think the world of Tim. I think he’d be a great governor. But it’s clear the voters are deciding between two people.”

Weaver has left, and has only helped to stoke the public perception of a failed candidacy. The Baker camp of course warmly welcomed the Weaver defection.

Baker spokeswoman Amy Goodrich said: “John Weaver is a very talented and smart guy. This is a big loss (for Cahill). But we’re proud to have his support.”

And of course Haley Barbour’s group, the Republican Governor’s Association, weighed in as well.

“We took Tim Cahill’s campaign a lot more serious when we saw the team that he had put together,” said RGA spokesman Chris Schrimpf. “Now it’s clear that he has lost any credibility that he’s running a serious campaign.”

Ouch! Weaver leaving the campaign would not normally be a big deal. Consultants are changed frequently in this business. But at this time, under these circumstances, it has to be considered a body blow to the Cahill campaign. Have not seen any response from the Patrick campaign, but a statement urging Cahill to soldier on is probably right around the corner. 🙂

Read the Herald story here.

Posted in State News | Tagged , , , | Leave a comment

Haley Barbour is Back in Town

Haley Barbour and the Republican Governor’s Association are back, unleashing a $1.8 million dollar (estimated) ad barrage directed at Governor Deval Patrick. The RGA had earlier unleashed a million dollar barrage against independent Tim Cahill, helping to marginalize him in the race. With Cahill mired in third place the RGA will now go after Patrick for the balance of this campaign. The Patrick campaign fired back. From the Globe:

“We believe that voters care more about the fact that Massachusetts is creating jobs faster than any other state in the nation under Governor Patrick’s leadership than about 30-second TV ads from any outside group,’’ Rubin said in a statement. “Our campaign’s focus has been on connecting with people one-on-one throughout the state and talking with them about the work Governor Patrick is doing to lead Massachusetts out of this recession and maintain our commitment to education, health care, and job creation.’’

The Baker campaign, while nominally stating their opposition to “outside” groups doing these types of ad buys, jumped on the theme of the ads.

Baker’s campaign spokesman, Rick Gorka, said in a statement yesterday that ads sponsored by outside groups should remain outside Massachusetts.

“But regardless of any ad,’’ he added, “Governor Patrick needs to answer for the eight tax increases, $3 billion in higher spending, and record unemployment over the last four years.’’

Baker’s protests do not ring true, but lets face it. Major party candidates are all part of the same hypocrisy on the issue. As far as Tim Cahill goes the Globe did not apparently seek a comment from him. But after what happened in New Jersey in the Governors race won by Chis Christie one has to wonder how Cahill didn’t see this coming????

Posted in State News | Tagged , , | 3 Comments

AFL-CIO Endorses Governor Patrick

The State AFL-CIO yesterday endorsed Governor Patrick, despite a series of public squabbles between the Governor and organized labor. The Governor has had disagreements with labor over police details, Quinn bill funding, and very notably the casino bill, which recently stalled on Beacon Hill. Despite those public disagreements, and despite Tim Cahill taking some very pointedly pro-union stands, the Governor won the AFL-CIO endorsement. From the State House News Service:

“Elections are about electing the best candidate and standing up for a set of values,” state AFL-CIO President Robert Haynes, who boasts of 400,000 members, said in a statement. “Deval Patrick is the best candidate because of his values. It has been loud and clear that unions and the families we represent have not agreed with Governor Patrick on everything. But we want to be even louder and crystal clear that we agree with him on the important things, chief among them the values we share about the role of government.”

The endorsement will help the Governor with troops and money, and that is a good thing for him. But the rank and file, as noted in the State House News article, do not blindly follow leadership. Union households (at 49%) gave Scott Brown some pretty big support. And labor is not in a real good political position these days. Republican Charlie Baker will (and has) accused the Governor of being in the political debt of “union bosses”. The ad posted here does just that, and it was released before the announcement by the AFL.

Posted in State News | Tagged , , , | 2 Comments

The GOP Pledge to America

The Republicans will tomorrow unveil their “Pledge to America”, looking to mimic the success of the Newt Gingrich “Contract with America”. The 21 page document used plenty of Republican boilerplate about cutting taxes, protecting the constitution, etc. I have posted the full document below. For the purposes of this post I would like to focus on the portions of the document dealing with the federal deficit. From the Republican Pledge:

Our Plan to Put Government on a Path to a Balanced Budget
We will have a responsible, fact-based conversation with the American people about the scale of the fiscal challenges we face, and the urgent action that is required to deal with them. We will curb Washington’s spending habits and promote job creation, bring down the deficit, and build long-term fiscal stability.
• Act Immediately to Reduce Spending: There is no reason to wait to reduce wasteful and unnecessary spending. Congress should move immediately to cancel unspent “stimulus” funds, and block any attempts to extend the timeline for spending “stimulus” funds. Throwing more money at a stimulus plan that is not working only wastes taxpayer money and puts us further in debt.

• Cut Government Spending to Pre-Stimulus, Pre-Bailout Levels: With common-sense exceptions for seniors, veterans, and our troops, we will roll back government spending to pre-stimulus, pre-bailout levels, saving us at least $100 billion in the first year alone and putting us on a path to begin paying down the debt, balancing the budget, and ending the spending spree in Washington that threatens our children’s future.

• Establish a Hard Cap on New Discretionary Spending: We must put common-sense limits on the growth of government and stop the endless increases. Only in Washington is there an expectation that whatever your budget was last year, it will be more this year and even more the next. We will set strict budget caps to limit federal spending on an annual basis. Budget caps were used in the 1990s, when a Republican Congress was able to bring the budget into balance and eventual surplus. By cutting discretionary spending from current levels and imposing a hard cap on future growth, we will save taxpayers hundreds of billions of dollars.

• Cut Congress’ Budget: This year, Congress increased its own budget by 5.8 percent at a time when families and small businesses across the country are cutting back. We will make Congress do more with less by significantly reducing its budget.

• Hold Weekly Votes on Spending Cuts: Earlier this year, House Republicans launched the YouCut initiative to combat the permissive culture of runaway spending in Congress. Over the course of nine weeks, YouCut produced proposals to save taxpayers more than $120 billion. We will continue to hold weekly votes on spending cuts.

• End TARP Once And For All: Americans are rightly outraged at the bailouts of businesses and entities that force responsible taxpayers to subsidize irresponsible behavior. We will cancel the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP), a move that would save taxpayers roughly $16 billion.

• End Government Control of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac: Since taking over Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the mortgage companies that triggered the financial meltdown by giving too many high risk loans to people who couldn’t afford them, taxpayers were billed more than $145 billion to save the two companies. We will reform Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac by ending their government takeover, shrinking their portfolios, and establishing minimum capital standards. This will save taxpayers as much as $30 billion.

• Impose a Net Federal Hiring Freeze of Non-Security Employees: Small businesses and entrepreneurs are the engine of our economy and should not be crowded out by unchecked government growth. We will impose a net hiring freeze on non-security federal employees and ensure that the public sector no longer grows at the expense of the private sector.

• Root Out Government Waste and Duplication: Once created, federal programs almost never go away, even if the problem they were created to address is no longer relevant. More than 20 states have addressed this problem by requiring that programs end – or “sunset” – by a date certain. We will adopt this requirement at the federal level to force Congress to determine if a program is worthy of continued taxpayer support.

• We will make the decisions that are necessary to protect our entitlement programs for today’s seniors and future generations. That means requiring a full accounting of Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid, setting benchmarks for these programs and reviewing them regularly, and preventing the expansion of unfunded liabilities.

While there may well be some things that will marginally promote deficit reduction the Republicans, who have been ferocious in their criticism of Democrats and the President on the issue, come up empty here. The failure to even put a small dent in the deficit is made worse by the embrace of the extension of the Bush tax cuts with no corresponding offsets, and with the pledge to maintain defense spending at current or higher levels. I guess it is critical to spend on defense, but not so important that we would actually pay for it.

When the Presidents Commission issues its report on the deficit we will see who the deficit hawks really are. You can rest assured that the Republican leadership will run like gazelle from a cheetah when that report advocates revenue increases as well as deep spending reductions.

Both the Speaker and the White House issued the requisite condemnations. They are below.

“Congressional Republicans are pledging to ship jobs overseas; blow a $700 billion hole in the deficit to give tax cuts to millionaires and billionaires; turn Social Security from a guaranteed benefit into a guaranteed gamble; once again, subject American families to the recklessness of Wall Street; and take away patients’ rights,” the spokesman, Nadeam Elshami said in a statement. “Republicans want to return to the same failed economic policies that hurt millions of American and threatened our economy.”

“This is the same agenda that caused the deepest recession since the Great Depression, costing 8 million jobs, wiping out trillions in family wealth and setting middle-class families back,” Pfeiffer wrote. “Instead of a pledge to the American people, Congressional Republicans made a pledge to the big special interests to restore the same economic ideas that benefited them at the expense of middle-class families.”

Read the New York Times story here.

Running from the deficit

gop_pledge_09222010

Posted in National News | Tagged | 3 Comments

The Lt. Governors Debate

The Lt. Governors Debate held today at Suffolk University. Read the Globe story on that debate here.

http://www.statehousenews.com/video/10-09-22debate/player-viral.swf

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged | Leave a comment

Suffolk Poll Governors Race

Channel 7 and Suffolk pollster David Paleologos released a Governors poll yesterday showing Governor Patrick still maintaining a lead over Charlie Baker, with Tim Cahill mired in third place, twenty points behind Baker. The results have Patrick at 41%, Baker at 34%, and Cahill at 14%. (At 14% Cahill at least is in double digits). Baker continues to suffer from an electorate that does not yet know him. Amongst voters that know both candidates Baker holds a slight lead over the Governor. But there is still some definition to be added to the Baker candidacy. And Paleologos thinks Baker needs to worry about adding that definition and not worry so much about Tim Cahill.

“Charlie Baker doesn’t need Tim Cahill (to exit the race) to win this,” Paleologos said. “Charlie Baker needs Charlie Baker to win this.”

On that Cahill issue the poll shows Cahill drawing more support from Baker, but not substantially more.

Should Cahill exit the race, 35 percent of his support would go to Patrick, while 46 percent would go to Baker.

So Cahill lives on, Patrick clings to the lead, and Baker needs to step up his game. Tonights debate could be pivotal. The latest ads are here, including a negative piece on Charlie Baker partially funded by the Democratic Governors Association.

Posted in State News | Tagged , , , | Leave a comment