Yes another survey, with the Boston Globe showing Charlie Baker pulling into a dead heat with Deval Patrick. In the Globe survey Patrick was at 35%, Baker 34%, Cahill 11%, Jill Stein 4%, and 14% were undecided. I did not see a cross tab for right track-wrong track voters, but there were a couple of important differences between these results and the Western Mass poll that I posted on a couple of days ago.
1) Gender In this survey there is a slight advantage for the Governor with females. Governor Patrick leads 36% to 32% amongst females, while Baker leads 36% to 33% with men. If these numbers are correct a natural advantage for the Governor is dissipating.
2) Independents. This survey shows Charlie Baker with a 19 point lead amongst independents. As I said in my earlier post just winning in this category will not be enough for Baker. He needs a Scott Brown type rout of the Governor with independents. Cahill garners 14% in this category, and despite a cross tab showing his voters split evenly between Baker and Patrick I believe he hurts Baker in this category. If Cahill falls into single digits with independents (which is more likely by the day) then the rout may be on in this category for Baker, and that will be an ominous turn for Governor Patrick.
Read the Globe story here.
The cross tabs are attached below.