The Circular Firing Squad

Posted on July 2, 2011 by billmanzi

The State of Minnesota has come to a grinding halt, with Democratic Governor Mark Dayton unable to reach agreement with the newly elected Republican majorities in both the Minnesota House and Senate. The recriminations are flying, with Republicans attempting to insert social items into the fiscal negotiations (abortion restrictions, stem cell research restrictions) as well as expanding them to include collective bargaining restrictions. The Governor, surprised by the late addition of social items to the Republican negotiating agenda, pulled the plug on negotiations by re-inserting his demand for an additional 3% tax on those making over $1 million per year. That demand had been dropped in earlier talks where progress has been made. From the StarTribune:

The unwinding began Wednesday night, when Republican negotiators brought back a list of proposed policy changes that Dayton and Democrats had spent months opposing — including new abortion restrictions, curtailed collective bargaining rights, photo ID voting requirements, a 15 percent reduction in the state workforce, and a ban on embryonic stem cell research.

“It set up some major barriers to reaching an agreement,” Dayton said in an interview Friday. The governor added that he was taken by surprise since the two sides had been focusing on financial details. “These policy issues are pushing us farther apart,” he said.

The next day, it was the Republicans who found themselves caught off-guard.

Overnight, Dayton had cooled to their proposal to fill the budget gap by borrowing money and paying it back with tobacco settlement revenue. Thursday, he countered by bringing back his idea of raising income taxes on the rich — specifically, on the state’s 7,700 millionaires.

Republicans quickly rejected that idea, saying they could never find the votes for an income tax increase.

Presidential politics has been introduced as well, with Democrats blaming Tim Pawlenty, the former Governor, for some of the fiscal woes now facing Minnesota. From Politico:

And Minnesota Democratic party chairman Ken Martin took to MSNBC to affix the blame for the shutdown on the state’s previous governor, Tim Pawlenty, who is seeking the 2012 GOP presidential nomination.

“The last eight years of reckless policies of Tim Pawlenty are what got us into this mess in the first place,” Martin said.

Pawlenty fired back, blaming the Democrats and an increase in spending for the current problems. In looking at what actually happened it is safe to say that Pawlenty kicked the fiscal can down the road. He utilized one time revenues and budget gimmicks to achieve balance, and some of those chickens are now coming home to roost. The Democratic Legislature during Pawlenty’s tenure also deserves some blame as well. Pawlenty’s suggestion that this shutdown is a good thing is simply reflective of the mindset of Republicans, which is that negotiations on fiscal matters must be settled with no compromise.

The former Minnesota governor argued that the current government shutdown, which began at midnight, could end up being a good thing in the long term.

“There’s going to be a variety of near-term impacts, but the longer-term goal is what is most important here,” which is keeping the size of government under control, Pawlenty said.

Pawlenty praised GOP state lawmakers for “doing the right thing by saying they’re going to live with the money that is coming in the door.”

The Minnesota situation bodes poorly for the potential for settlement of the “debt ceiling” negotiations in Washington, and the President’s hitting back at Republicans during his last press conference may indicate that he thinks so as well.

Chris Cillizza over at “The Fix” wrote a posting that talked about the hardening of positions generally, with compromise in all areas of life appearing to be harder to come by. Interesting observations, including the idea that those with differing viewpoints are “bad”, as well as the point that we all tend to go to media content that reinforces our existing belief systems, meaning that we don’t get ANY alternative viewpoints. Cillizza points to the lockouts in the NFL and now the NBA as further indications that compromise is now a dirty word. Chuck Todd made the same point on his MSNBC show on Friday. The adults in the room better start asserting themselves, or they are going to do some real damage to the economy of this country. Maybe I am naive, but this does not have to be as hard as the juveniles in the room are making it. Leaders must act like leaders, and if that means telling the “base” that they will have to live with less than their ideal, then lets get on with it. That is what leadership is. But we are not seeing much of that, either in Washington or Minnesota.

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Real Muni Health Care Reform

Posted on July 1, 2011 by billmanzi

The Legislative Budget Conference Committee has reached agreement on the State budget, with the much watched municipal health care reform portion surviving with substantive reform intact. From the State House News Service:

The final proposal, according to a budget document obtained by the News Service, allows municipalities to present a proposal for plan design changes, including increases in co-payments and deductibles, or suggest transferring of employees into the state’s Group Insurance Commission to a public employee committee.

The city or town would have 30 days to negotiate the changes with the committee – comprised of one member from each collective bargaining unit and a retiree representative – as well as proposals to offset the impact of higher employee costs with programs such as health reimbursement accounts.

The final draft of the municipal health reform plan combines several of the strategies recommended by the House and Senate in their initial budgets, while compromising in the middle on the amount of savings each city and town will realize as a result of shifting some health care costs to workers.

While the Senate called for up to 33 percent of savings to go back to employees and the House recommended 10 percent to 20 percent, the final budget calls for up to 25 percent to come back to employees. …If a majority of the employee committee does not agree to the management offer after 30 days, a three-person panel, including one independent arbiter, would be authorized to implement the plan design changes, but would be given 10 days to decide how to share up to 25 percent of the achieved savings with subscribers, including retirees, low-income subscribers and large health care utilizers.

Co-payment and deductible levels would not be allowed to exceed those of the most-subscribed health plan in the GIC for each employee group, under the terms of the agreement, but increases beyond that level could still be pursued through traditional collective bargaining.

So the conferees came to a compromise that gives labor a voice, but not a veto. Michael Widmer of the Massachusetts Taxpayers Foundation spoke favorably about the Conference Committee recommendations.

“I think this is a very constructive compromise which takes the best of the House and Senate proposals,” Widmer said. “As a result municipalities will save hundreds of millions of taxpayer dollars over the next decade, while preserving critical jobs and services and still providing generous health care benefits for municipal employees and retirees.”

Kudos to House Chair Brian Dempsey and Senate Chair Steve Brewer for all of their hard work on the budget. It appears, according to the State House News Service, that the Legislature will utilize some remainder monies to offset the 7% local aid cut that was part of the budget. If that is accurate further thanks and recognition should go to the Conference Committee and the House and Senate leadership for helping the locals to maintain services and jobs. Great job.

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Halperin Suspended

Posted on June 30, 2011 by billmanzi

Mark Halperin, political analyst for Time Magazine as well as MSNBC, was suspended indefinitely today by the network for calling President Obama a “dick” on the Morning Joe show. I happened to be watching the show when Halperin made the comment, and although it was inappropriate I, as a Democrat, was not jeeped up about it. Halperin was goaded by Scarborough, although it was clear that he believed the President’s tone at the press conference deserved some criticism. I took his comment to be a criticism of the press conference tenor of the President rather than blanket name calling. On that basis a short suspension is more than enough punishment, and people ought to get over it. My strong opposition to foul language is well known, but this ought to be laughed off. Lets move on. My only question is whether MSNBC would have suspended Halperin if he called the President a “weiner”?

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President Obama Plays Offense

Posted on June 30, 2011 by billmanzi

The President held a press conference yesterday, ratcheting up his rhetoric against Republicans on the issue of raising the debt ceiling. The President appeared to draw a line in the sand over Republican refusal to include any revenues in a prospective deficit cutting deal that would raise the debt ceiling. Obama raised several issues of note, hitting the Republicans for not being willing to employ a “balanced” approach to deficit reduction. He continually waived the issue of tax breaks for the owners of corporate jets in the face of Republicans, contrasting their willingness to cut programs for students and safety with their unwillingness to get rid of these types of tax breaks for millionaires and billionaires.

The President mocked the work habits of the Congress, saying that he is in Washington working towards a deal on deficit reduction while Congress is frequently out of session. He seemed to be responding to the charges that he has not been “engaged” on this issue. Anytime you hit the work habits of Congress it has to be a winning argument. From Politico:

After three straight lopsided elections, Congress still can’t — or won’t — function.

Just 18 bills have become law through the first half of 2011, and 15 of those named a building after someone, temporarily extended expiring laws or appointed an official to the board of the Smithsonian Institution. Congress can’t decide what to do on critical issues like Libya, spending or the nation’s debt limit, and no compromise is in sight on a host of other issues.

The President comparing Congressional work habits to his daughters homework habits will not be a big hit with Speaker Boehner, but it appears to be working, as the calls are going out for Congress to stay in session until a deal is reached. A more certain methodology would be to take away Congressional pay until such time as a deal was reached. Probably would have a deal by next week.

The President is going to take some heat from his base upon the announcement of this deal, which will likely contain some deep program cuts, potentially as high as a trillion dollars. Any deal that contains, as the Republicans demand, only spending cuts with no elimination of “tax expenditures”, will create a firestorm within the Democratic Party. The President, I think rightly, points out that any deal must impose pain on both parties to the deal. As my post on Governor Chris Christie yesterday points out, rigid inflexibility during political negotiations simply leads to gridlock. Such inflexibility is designed for political purposes, and to potentially move the end results of negotiations closer to a desired result. But it can be a dangerous game, as any deal must garner votes in Congress. The continuing inflexibility of Republicans on the issue of minor modifications to the tax code that will produce some revenue to go with large program cuts will make it that much harder to get the votes for a final deal, which must be completed because it is vital to the American people. The President cannot be expected to hold his tongue forever as he is pilloried by Republicans. The President is showing flexibility, and rejecting absolutist positions put forward by his negotiating partners. The Republicans need to take a page out of the Governor Christie playbook and move this negotiation forward for the good of the American people.

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Tale of Two Approaches

Posted on June 29, 2011 by billmanzi

Governor Chris Christie of New Jersey is taking a few victory laps after passing a pension and health care reform bill in New Jersey, reaching agreement with the Democratic legislature on a bill that had to be hard for them to swallow. Christie has made the rounds, appearing on Meet the Press and Morning Joe, talking not only of his legislative success, but laying out what he believes a CEO needs to do to move an agenda. Christie made a couple of points that I believe have value, regardless of Party affiliation.

1) Being the executive is substantially different than being a legislator. In order to move your agenda you must be involved, and “have skin in the game”. I truly believe Christie has that one exactly right. Either you are willing to expend some political capital or you will not get anything done. Christie’s actions on this latest New Jersey bill are instructive. He did 30 town hall style meetings across New Jersey, bluntly putting forward his best arguments for the bill. The Governor not only was willing to expend capital but to work hard to build public support for his position. The “work hard” part is often lost on public officials who wonder why they lose public policy fights.

2) Christie correctly points out that being “blunt” does not mean being inflexible. If you want to make public progress on tough issues you must realize that negotiations require give and take. The Governor talked in the Morning Joe segment about his change of heart on the sunset provision involved in this legislation. He gave way on that issue after indicating that he would not, striving to achieve the best deal he could under the circumstances. For all of you budding Mayors and City Managers out there learn an important lesson from Chris Christie here. Inflexibility means gridlock, and compromise moves important issues forward. Christie, for all of his bombast, has mastered the legislative process. It is true that such compromising sometimes subjects you to heavy criticism from both sides of an issue. But that is why political capital is accumulated. To be spent.

On another note Christie had some fun at the expense of Connecticut Governor Dan Malloy, who had been critical of Christie on the issue of labor relations. Malloy pointed to his own good relationship with the state employees of Connecticut, and built a budget that included a large tax hike and projected savings of $1.6 billion from union labor. That agreement, reached by Governor Malloy and the leadership of 15 unions, failed to win ratification by the rank and file, with the biggest state union voting against. Governor Malloy is now preparing to lay off about 7500 state workers, representing a staggering 16% of the overall workforce. This is a stunning turn of events, leaving the Governor in a difficult spot and quite frankly showing that the state workers in Connecticut just don’t get it. The refusal of this deal has to be amongst the single most self defeating acts in recent political history. Governor Christie will be very quick to remind folks (as he did on Morning Joe) that Governor Malloy increased taxes and got nothing in return.

A very good week for Chris Christie, earned through political smarts, flexibility, and hard work. Lessons to be learned for sure.

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Pawlenty Channels His Inner Jimmy Carter

Posted on June 28, 2011 by billmanzi

Tim Pawlenty gave a major foreign policy speech at the Council on Foreign Relations today, talking in the broadest terms about support for democracy in the Middle East, criticizing the Obama Administration for not doing more to support the Arab Spring. He was also critical of Republicans who he claimed supported “isolationism”. Pawlenty, who has not exactly projected a tough image on the campaign trail, now seeks to curry favor with the neo-con wing of the Republican Party and show himself to be the foreign policy tough guy in the Republican field. He may be trying to be tough, but if this is the best he can do he is in a bit of trouble. Some of his more interesting assertions:

1) That the Iranian protests over the Presidential “re-election” of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad were ignored by the President, thereby giving tacit support to the mullahs. Pawlenty had no policy alternatives. If he is listening to Randy Scheunemann he probably would advocate immediate invasion. A bit snarky, but he offered no policy alternatives in this area.

2) He strongly criticized the Administration for their lack of early support for the Egyptian democracy movement. He ridiculed Hillary Clinton for indicating friendship with ousted President Hosni Mubarak, pointing to a rebuff of Secretary Clinton by democracy advocates on her post-Mubarak trip to Egypt. Pawlenty gave no indication as to whether he thought that Mubarak’s foreign policy, staunchly pro-American, would be continued under a future Egyptian government. I failed to hear Pawlenty comment on the new Egyptian government’s opening of the Gaza crossing, which was praised by Hamas.

Hamas leaders praised Egypt for opening the crossing and attempted to allay concerns in Cairo that opening the crossing would shift the burden of tending to Gaza’s impoverished population of 1.5 million Palestinians.

Pawlenty failed to comment on the new Egyptian government brokering a deal between the Palestinian factions Fatah and Hamas to produce a unity government in the West Bank and Gaza, which has caused severe political heartburn for the United States. Pawlenty, while heavily critical of the Obama Administration on Iran, did not comment on the new Egyptian government’s diplomatic opening to Iran, which in the spirit of democratic reform was attributed by Egyptian officials to a desire to more accurately reflect public opinion. From the New York Times:

Egyptian officials, emboldened by the revolution and with an eye on coming elections, say that they are moving toward policies that more accurately reflect public opinion.

And that includes the new relationship with Iran:

At the same time, she said, Egypt is also in the process of normalizing its relations with Iran, a regional power that the United States considers a dangerous pariah.

“All the world has diplomatic relations with Iran with the exception of the United States and Israel,” Ambassador Bakhoum said. “We look at Iran as a neighbor in the region that we should have normal relations with. Iran is not perceived as an enemy as it was under the previous regime, and it is not perceived as a friend.”

Pawlenty described democracy as “a fruit that is ripening” in the Middle East. He said that we need the “pro-democracy, secular parties” to succeed in Egypt. He gave no indication of whether the Muslim Brotherhood fit this description. He leaves us to speculate as to what his policy would be towards a democratically elected government of Egypt that might be run by the Brotherhood. One has to wonder if that policy would be similar to the policy the United States currently employs towards the democratically elected Hamas in the Gaza Strip.

Pawlenty issued various non-sequiturs on Syrian policy as well, proposing a recall of the American ambassador to Syria while advocating diplomacy to solve the Syrian problem.

“we should press every diplomatic and economic channel to bring the Assad reign of terror to an end.

Can’t quite figure out how to press the diplomatic channels while withdrawing our ambassador, but T-Paw is not bothered by such contradictions.

Pawlenty did stand with the President on Libya. No word on what the American national interest is in Libya, or what nation building will be required after the Moammar Gadhafi regime is toppled. Not surprisingly, like John McCain, Pawlenty points to an urgent need to maintain all of these foreign commitments, but refuses to ask the American people to pay for them. Urgent or not, T-Paw advocates borrowing the money from China and others to fund these military actions. While we borrow from the Chinese to fund military action the Chinese are striking lucrative business deals with these countries, with one blog saying that “they build and we guard”.

The United States needs to have a foreign policy based on our national interests. Pawlenty’s vacuous policy pronouncements are a recipe for continued foreign policy disasters that will bankrupt this country. It is a complex world that requires American policy to not only reflect our values, but the interests of our people as well. Rebuilding infrastructure in Iraq and Afghanistan while we fight for crumbs to rebuild our own in America strikes me as foolhardy. Many Republicans are now coming to that realization. Thankfully Pawlenty won’t be on the stage much longer.

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Budget and Campaign Musings

Posted on June 27, 2011 by billmanzi

Methuen’s budget is passed, and of course that passage has its critics. Naturally, in a political season, there are going to be those who utilize the budget for political purposes. Just a few disjointed thoughts:

1) When a candidate tells you they are opposed to a budget, (or anything else for that matter), ask for specifics. In the case of the budget ask the candidate what services to the public they favor cutting. If they tell you that no services need to be cut have them explain what specifically they would cut from the budget.

2) What would be some questions you would like to see asked at a Mayoral debate?

3) Should a Mayoral debate contain a spelling bee section?

That is all (for now).

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A Flake You Say? Now That is Fair and Balanced

Posted on June 27, 2011 by billmanzi

Chris Wallace had Michelle Bachmann on Fox News Sunday, and besides asking about her family taking advantage of federal programs Wallace had the temerity to ask Bachmann whether she was a “flake”. Wallace issued an apology via the FNS website yesterday after being pelted with protests by Bachmann supporters. I happen to think that Wallace is a pretty tough interviewer, regardless of the party affiliation of the person being interviewed. Was Wallace off base in his questioning?

Regardless of the Wallace interview Bachmann is on the rise, descending on Iowa today, showing herself to be a major force in the Republican nominating contest. A Politico story today deals with her surge, and dismisses some of the caricature of her that has been created by some of her public pronouncements.

“She works to know her audience and will customize her message and her tone to resonate with the audience she’s speaking to,” said Ron Carey, a former chairman of the Minnesota GOP who served briefly as Bachmann’s congressional chief of staff. “She’s smart enough to modify and still find areas of agreement but make sure she doesn’t use some of the red meat rhetoric to emphasize her points.”

I think that, as of today, Bachmann will easily win in Iowa. She will take advantage of the media fascination with her to get plenty of free coverage, and she has always shown herself to be a prolific fundraiser. The Bachmann train is picking up steam. Will the candidates she is about to extinguish in Iowa go negative?

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Iowa Poll: Good News for Bachmann

Posted on June 26, 2011 by billmanzi

A new survey by the Des Moines Register shows Mitt Romney leading the pack in Iowa, with Michelle Bachmann in a statistical dead heat with Romney for the lead. Romney is polling at 23%, Bachmann at 22%, and Herman Cain is running third at 10%. Meanwhile some of the bigger names are way behind, with Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul tied at 7%, Tim Pawlenty is at 6%, Rick Santorum at 4%, and Jon Huntsman has surged to 2%.

The poll continues the good news for Bachmann, who will be spending more time and resources in Iowa in the next month. It is early, but the results have to be alarming for Pawlenty, who finds himself in a real bad spot with these numbers. He has been spending time and money here, and these results show that so far he has been an underwhelming candidate. And speaking of underwhelming the Huntsman number, even though he is not competing here, should be a sign of things to come for him. His drive to crack 4% continues.

The poll appears to leave open a preference for a new candidate: (From the Register)

Indeed, results indicate Iowa Republicans would be receptive to additional candidates in the race. Just 14 percent of likely Republican caucusgoers say their minds are made up about their choice in the presidential race. Another 14 percent don’t have a first choice yet. Sixty-nine percent say they could be persuaded to support a candidate other than their first choice.

So Governor Rick Perry will continue with his flirtation, but the clock is ticking, with the best potential alternative to Romney appearing to be Michelle Bachmann. The Politico story is here.

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Trial in Boston? Maybe Not

Posted on June 25, 2011 by billmanzi

I have resisted (up to now) the desire to post on the capture of James Bulger, although I admit to being as fascinated with the story as everyone else appears to be. The Bulger capture and the hyper media coverage surrounding his return to “face justice” in Boston, with all media outlets and anyone within shouting distance of a microphone calling him guilty of all manner of heinous crimes, has to seriously call into question whether any jury could be empaneled in Boston that would not have been polluted by the pre-trial publicity. The impending change of venue motion should consume more than a few months. And what is the deal with the government position that Bulger is not indigent? I recognize (and believe) that Bulger may have hidden assets. But if the goal is to get a trial before multiple years elapse then the Government should use other means to try to find those hidden assets. After all any additional monies uncovered will be seized, leaving him indigent in the end anyway. The media circus will be big business for many, but it will not help to convict James Bulger of anything. It may help him delay long enough to make one last,final escape from justice.

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