Bill Manzi.com

A couple of posts back I speculated that the massive air assault launched against Newt Gingrich by Mitt Romney and Ron Paul was indeed weighing down Gingrich, and might allow Romn Paul to sneak in the back door. Public Policy just released some new Iowa poll numbers showing just that, with Gingrich actually slipping into third place and Ron Paul leading the pack. For those that think that negative campaigning does not work lets look at this tidbit from Public Policy:

Gingrich has now seen a big drop in his Iowa standing two weeks in a row. His share of the vote has gone from 27% to 22% to 14%. And there’s been a large drop in his personal favorability numbers as well from +31 (62/31) to +12 (52/40) to now -1 (46/47). Negative ads over the last few weeks have really chipped away at Gingrich’s image as being a strong conservative- now only 36% of voters believe that he has ‘strong principles,’ while 43% think he does not.

Ron Paul stands at 23%, with Mitt Romney at 20%, 14% for Gingrich, 10% for Michelle Bachmann, Rick Perry, and Rick Santorum, 4% for Jon Huntsman, and 2% for Gary Johnson.

Paul does not just have good poll numbers in Iowa. He also has organization and money. Paul’s people have maintained libertarian organizations that date back to his last run, leaving him positioned to out-hustle the opposition on caucus day. Mitt Romney could not have mapped this out any better.

I am somewhat mystified as to the real lack of response by Gingrich to the savage assault placed on him over the airwaves. He apparently does not have the financial resources to respond at all, and he does not really have a ground game in Iowa. Looks like another “not-Mitt” flameout, with Newt’s eschewing “traditional” campaign methodology coming back to bite him hard. It may be time for another cruise so that Newt can think this over.

Mitt Romney sure is taking this Newt Gingrich thing seriously. He has unleashed a series of interviews along with a major ad buy paid for by a Romney SuperPac, with Gingrich the major target. Included in the Romney attack was the observation that

zany is not what we need in a president.”

As noted in earlier posts Gingrich has leads in three of the first four states, but certainly trails Romney in money and organization. Romney is now attempting to put that weight right on Gingrich, and at least in Iowa appears to be having some success. The newest Public Policy Iowa poll shows Gingrich at 22%, Ron Paul at 21%, Romney at 16%, and Bachmann showing signs of life at 11%. Ron Paul has been bombing Gingrich as well, but has had the advantage of not taking any return fire. With Gingrich now begining to sag under the weight of the Romney attacks in Iowa will Dr. Paul manage to sneak in the back door?

I think Gingrich is losing a grand opportunity for himself in Iowa, and a Gingrich loss there would have to be chalked up to his refusal to run a “consultant driven” campaign that actually organizes in traditional ways. A Ron Paul win certainly does not mean the good Doctor is going to win the nomination, but his stopping a Gingrich win certainly allows Romney to catch his breath and hope for a big win in New Hampshire. Dreams of an early Gingrich knockout blow to Romney go out the window, with a much longer slog for all on the horizon. And long slogs tend to be won by the candidate with the best organization and the most money.

The Republicans held yet another debate Saturday night, and there I sat, transfixed by the spectacle. (My being home watching a Republican debate on a Saturday night should tell you all you need to know about my lack of life). My own take on it was that Newt has to be considered the winner. Mitt Romney picked a pretty bad time to come up with a stinker, but he was definitely off his game. I also thought Michelle Bachmann had a pretty good night, especially her taking on “Newt Romney”.

It is just static, or does it mean something? From my view I thought it meant plenty to Newt, who managed to parry all of the assaults on him fairly easily. His strong rebuttal to Romney on the career politician issue,(you would have been a career politician but you lost to Teddy Kennedy)was one of his best moments of the night. For those, myself included, who have been expecting some sort of Gingrich meltdown, the debate showed that Gingrich has the ability, when focused and disciplined, to more than hold his own. Romney and his team, for the first time, have begun to show some wear and tear. Gingrich will now force Romney out into the open, where the Mittster can sometimes fall down. (Maybe somebody from the campaign has told Mitt not to offer any more $10,000 wagers when he goes on Fox News Sunday next week).

The Republicans, for today, appear poised to gamble on Gingrich. But it is a big gamble, as some data from NBC/Marist indicates. In Republican South Carolina President Obama leads both Gingrich and Romney, which is shocking to me. I fully expect that to change, but the damage being done to the Republican brand by this field has to be substantial. Keep bringing in the Donald Trumps for entertainment and these guys could end up losing 40 states to a President that appeared to be on the ropes politically.