Bill Manzi.com

Mitt Romney sure is taking this Newt Gingrich thing seriously. He has unleashed a series of interviews along with a major ad buy paid for by a Romney SuperPac, with Gingrich the major target. Included in the Romney attack was the observation that

zany is not what we need in a president.”

As noted in earlier posts Gingrich has leads in three of the first four states, but certainly trails Romney in money and organization. Romney is now attempting to put that weight right on Gingrich, and at least in Iowa appears to be having some success. The newest Public Policy Iowa poll shows Gingrich at 22%, Ron Paul at 21%, Romney at 16%, and Bachmann showing signs of life at 11%. Ron Paul has been bombing Gingrich as well, but has had the advantage of not taking any return fire. With Gingrich now begining to sag under the weight of the Romney attacks in Iowa will Dr. Paul manage to sneak in the back door?

I think Gingrich is losing a grand opportunity for himself in Iowa, and a Gingrich loss there would have to be chalked up to his refusal to run a “consultant driven” campaign that actually organizes in traditional ways. A Ron Paul win certainly does not mean the good Doctor is going to win the nomination, but his stopping a Gingrich win certainly allows Romney to catch his breath and hope for a big win in New Hampshire. Dreams of an early Gingrich knockout blow to Romney go out the window, with a much longer slog for all on the horizon. And long slogs tend to be won by the candidate with the best organization and the most money.

The Republicans held yet another debate Saturday night, and there I sat, transfixed by the spectacle. (My being home watching a Republican debate on a Saturday night should tell you all you need to know about my lack of life). My own take on it was that Newt has to be considered the winner. Mitt Romney picked a pretty bad time to come up with a stinker, but he was definitely off his game. I also thought Michelle Bachmann had a pretty good night, especially her taking on “Newt Romney”.

It is just static, or does it mean something? From my view I thought it meant plenty to Newt, who managed to parry all of the assaults on him fairly easily. His strong rebuttal to Romney on the career politician issue,(you would have been a career politician but you lost to Teddy Kennedy)was one of his best moments of the night. For those, myself included, who have been expecting some sort of Gingrich meltdown, the debate showed that Gingrich has the ability, when focused and disciplined, to more than hold his own. Romney and his team, for the first time, have begun to show some wear and tear. Gingrich will now force Romney out into the open, where the Mittster can sometimes fall down. (Maybe somebody from the campaign has told Mitt not to offer any more $10,000 wagers when he goes on Fox News Sunday next week).

The Republicans, for today, appear poised to gamble on Gingrich. But it is a big gamble, as some data from NBC/Marist indicates. In Republican South Carolina President Obama leads both Gingrich and Romney, which is shocking to me. I fully expect that to change, but the damage being done to the Republican brand by this field has to be substantial. Keep bringing in the Donald Trumps for entertainment and these guys could end up losing 40 states to a President that appeared to be on the ropes politically.

I posted the results of the FLA poll yesterday, showing Newt Gingrich with an enormous lead. A new Iowa poll released by the Des Moines Register also shows a surging Gingrich leading the pack at 25%, followed by Ron Paul at 18%, and Mitt Romney at 16%. Not only has Gingrich surged into the lead, but Romney has dropped 6% from his standing last month. There is no question that Romney is the best organized and best financed candidate, but there is something happening out there. The Register poll had Herman Cain at 8%, tied with Michelle Bachmann. Rick Perry and Rick Santorum both had 6%, and Jon Huntsman at 2% was bringing up the rear.

A significant aspect of the Register poll is the question of “second choice”. Gingrich was the first or second choice of 43% of the respondents, showing some real growth potential. And with Herman Cain bowing out Gingrich stands to benefit from a likely migration of some Cain voters. (Cain is set to endorse Gingrich, according to unconfirmed reports, tomorrow.) As of today you have to say that Gingrich is poised to win Iowa. Can he win Iowa even without any real organization to speak of? Republican strategist Mike Murphy raises some doubts in the Register.

Gingrich has been “a one-man band just standing onstage and pontificating,” Republican strategist Mike Murphy said. “On caucus night, can you convoy and get people there?”

It is a great question, and one that Gingrich chose to answer himself when all of his consultants quit on him. He said he wanted to run a different type of campaign, free of consultants (and their tedious demands that the candidate actually do some work)and embark on a cerebral exercise where his futuristic ideas for campaigns would win the day. Maybe Rick Perry should fire all his consultants. But I digress.

In the first survey taken after the Manchester Union Leader endorsed Newt Gingrich Rasmussen has Gingrich closing to within 10% of Romney, with Mitt at 34% and Newt at 24%. That survey had Ron Paul at 14%, and Jon Huntsman at 11%. That puts Gingrich within striking distance, with the Union Leader likely to commence a pounding of Romney that can only help Gingrich further close the gap.

In South Carolina Gingrich is leading Romney by a wide margin, at 38% to 15%, with Herman Cain at 13%. Unless Gingrich blows himself up (I know it is very possible) he should win South Carolina in a walk.

So the question I pose is this. If Gingrich runs the table on the first four contests (Iowa, NH, S.C. and FLA) will that knock Romney from the race? It certainly would provide Gingrich with a monster amount of momentum that could very well be hard to stop. I posed the question to Meet the Press panelist and Republican strategist Mike Murphy via Twitter. His response:

delegate numbers will be small but Newt would be in strong position. Unless he melted down in Feb, where process slows a bit.

I get the feeling that Murphy expects a meltdown from Gingrich at some point, and I understand that the delegate numbers would not dictate a Romney exit. But momentum in politics can be a strange thing, and Gingrich would have to be considered a heavy favorite if he wins all four of those contests. I would have to say that this is not where Romney thought he would be at this stage of the race. I don’t think that hoping that another opponent blows himself up constitutes a cogent campaign strategy. He had better win New Hampshire, or I think that Mitt Romney could be down for the count.