Some video of Lowell Manager Bernie Lynch talking about the issues facing Lowell at the Merrimack Valley Mayors and Managers breakfast. I missed the very start of his talk, but he did a great job of presenting to the interested crowd. Mayors Fiorentini and Kezer, as well as Mayor Holaday, Mayor Lantigua, Manager Stapcyzinski, Manager Maylor, and Mayor Zanni made presentations to the crowd, talking about issues and progress in each of their communities. Great job by all. The Tribune story on the event is here.
I had a great conversation with Teddy Panos this week on WCAP, 980 on the am dial, talking about the new report from the Massachusetts Taxpayers Foundation detailing the staggering unfunded retiree health care obligations of ten gateway cities, including Lowell. I have attached the Foundation Report at the bottom of this posting. This report, by Michael Widmer and the Foundation, details the current methodology of paying for municipal health care costs, and how the “pay as you go” method, used by all ten communities, is allowing these liabilities to continue to grow and accrue as unfunded. In order to meet these obligations in the future the service cuts and or tax increases that would be necessary are staggering, to both residential and commercial property taxpayers. Widmer, as usual, is exceedingly thorough in his analysis. He shows us what a scheduled payment against this liability would mean for these municipalities, and the numbers are not pretty. The system of making scheduled payments against a future unfunded liability is how municipalities are required to handle their unfunded pension obligations, and those payments have caused great strain on municipal budgets. The Commonwealth is also on a pension schedule, and like municipalities has had to defer scheduled payments by extending the full payment schedule out further into the future.
Since municpalities are now going to be required to book their OPEB (Other Post Employment Benefits) liabilities these retiree health care costs, in the past hidden by virtue of not being reported, are out in the open. It is only a matter of time before mandatory steps are imposed to address the problem. Widmer makes several recommendations which are likely to cause substantial political heartburn. They are:
1) Implement Municipal Health Care Reform. On the way via the new State law empowering municipalities in this area.
2) Tie benefits to Years of Service and Raise the Minimum Service for Eligibility. Recommendation would push the system of post retirement health care benefits to look more like the pension system, with longer service allowing a greater health care benefit. Full benefits today can accrue after 10 years of service.
3) Raise the Eligibility Age for Retiree Health Care. This recommendation makes perfect sense, and probably reflects one of the greatest weaknesses in the current retiree health care system. Retiring at 55 and getting full benefits until 65 (medicare) is a huge cost drag on municipalities. The recent health care reform bill mandated that all medicare eligible retirees be moved to that system, as incredibly some localities had not done so. But this recommendation would likely cause a huge political brawl.
4) Increase Eligibility Hours and Prorate Benefits for Part Time Employees.
5) End Spousal/Dependent Coverage. Talk about a political firestorm!
6) Reduce the Municipal Share of Premium Contributions. Oh boy another recommendation mandated by the numbers, but one that would cause a political firestorm.
As promised Newt Gingrich has unleashed a volley of attacks against Mitt Romney in South Carolina. Newt has been joined by Governor Rick Perry, who has called the Romney business practices at Bain “vulture capitalism”. And Newt is not just talking tough politics, he is talking Armaggedon.
“This is going to be Armageddon – they are going to come in here with everything they’ve got, every surrogate, every ad, every negative attack,” Gingrich said. “At the same time we’ll be drawing a sharp contrast between a Georgia Reagan conservative and a Massachusetts moderate who’s pro-gun control, pro-choice, pro-tax increase, pro-liberal judge, and the voters of South Carolina will have to look and decide.”
Gingrich is taking a pretty heavy backlash from the Republican establishment, who are horrified at the thought of Romney being softened up by the Gingrich artillery fire. Gingrich is without question moving towards pariah status, but you have to give him some credit. He is one pissed off candidate, and he is now going to give Romney a taste of his own medicine. I have heard Gingrich respond to some of the complaining, but I have yet to hear him say “this ain’t beanbag”. I am sure that is coming.
So does the assault change the Republican dynamic? I don’t think so, but the first new poll out of South Carolina from Insider Advantage has the Romney lead whittled to the margin of error over Gingrich. Romney comes in at 23%, Gingrich at 21%, Santorum at 14%, Paul at 13%, Huntsman at 7%, and Perry at 5%. Is this a polling anomaly, or are the Gingrich attacks bringing the Romney numbers down? My guess is that the Romney lead is a bit wider, but that Gingrich’s attacks are having a real impact. With millions being thrown into the battle to stop Romney even if he wins he will be substantially marked up. The President continues to raise money, and pick at the Republican divisions, especially over the excesses on Wall Street. This does not look like it is going to end well for the Republicans. Oh well, C’est la vie.
Mitt Romney, as expected, has been declared the winner in New Hampshire. Almost as importantly, and to the great benefit of Governor Romney, Ron Paul finished a strong second, beating back a late mini run by Jon Huntsman, who finished third. Romney is now poised to run the table on the first four Republican contests, as he has a strong lead in South Carolina, and he has Ron Paul acting as a human shield against any other candidate who might have a chance to make any inroads against Romney. I wonder what role Rand Paul is playing in the tacit Paul/Romney alliance? Food for thought.
1) Mitt Romney. Easy choice for first, but will he meet the expectations game? A win with less than 30% will be panned.
2) Jon Huntsman. Ok, I said he would get his ass kicked here, but I have reassessed. Huntsman in a very tight battle with Ron Paul for this spot.
3) Ron Paul. Stayin alive to help Mitt Romney another day.
4) Rick Santorum. Iowa doesn’t quite give him the bounce he had hoped for. After South Carolina he will be heading for the showers.
5) Newt Gingrich. The plummet continues. Ahh what might have been. But with $3.5 million ready to unleash on Mitt Romney in South Carolina Newt is not done just yet.
6) Rick Perry. Perry may finish below Buddy Roemer, which may prompt him to reassess. Then he will jog.
6a) Buddy Roemer. Let Buddy debate. If you let Rick Perry debate………
The counter attack against Mitt Romney has been launched, creating a brutal 24 hour period of incessant negative coverage for the Mittster. Leading the charge has been Newt Gingrich, who is still smarting from Romney’s negative ad blitz in Iowa. It appears that Gingrich will have some measure of revenge, with Sheldon Adelson pumping $5 million into a Gingrich Super-Pac, which Newt apparently will spend tearing Romney down.
With the Meet the Press debate getting the anti-Romney bandwagon rolling the hits have been directed into South Carolina, where the anti-Romney forces, still not united, sense the imperative of stopping him. A big Romney win in South Carolina, following a big win in New Hampshire, will likely set the stage for him to close the show in Florida, where a brand new Quinnipiac University poll has Romney enjoying a double digit lead over Newt Gingrich, with Romney at 36%, Gingrich at 24%, Santorum at 16%, Ron Paul at 10%, Rick Perry at 5%, and of course Jon Huntsman at 2%. With Romney leading the pack in South Carolina the rest of the field realizes that he is on the verge of doing what I speculated that Newt Gingrich might be able to do a short time ago: running the table on the field by winning the first four contests, and locking down the nomination.
Finally I must go back to Jon Huntsman. It would appear that he has picked up some momentum in New Hampshire, where he has camped out for the past year. But he continues to poll in the single digits in South Carolina and Florida, and the strategy just escapes me. He is truly going to be bulldozed after the primary tonight, with no money and no organization in South Carolina or Florida. On to South Carolina, where the fighting will be fierce. New Hampshire predictions to come.
The primary in New Hampshire arrives tomorrow, and Mitt Romney still holds a commanding lead. David Paleologos over at Suffolk just put out his daily tracking numbers, with Mitt Romney still in slight decline at 33%, Ron Paul at 20%, and Jon Huntsman at 13%. (Hope I don’t have to eat my words about Huntsman getting his ass kicked!)
The candidates engaged in two debates, Saturday evening, and Sunday morning. The first debate, moderated by George Stephanopoulos, allowed Mitt Romney to escape without any damage. I think the world of Stephanopoulos as a tough questioner, but the ABC debate just didn’t have it. The Meet the Press debate on Sunday morning was just the opposite, with moderator David Gregory opening the door wide for the candidates to hit Mitt Romney. They were more than happy to walk through that door, with Gingrich and Santorum piling on the Mittster, and scoring some good points. Romney was a bit ruffled by both, but he always keeps his composure.
I thought that Jon Huntsman had his best debate of the season on Sunday morning (maybe he can avoid that ass-kicking after all), and I think he scored on Romney with the attached clip. I am not sure that his service as ambassador in the Obama Administration is a big winner with Republican voters, but his comments on the naked partisanship of Romney’s attacks on that service will resonate with independents, who are eligible to vote in the Republican primary. I still see Huntsman as not going anywhere, but he has gotten Romney’s attention in New Hampshire. Paleologos is showing Romney slippage in his daily tracks, and the main beneficiary seems to be Huntsman.
After all is said and done Romney must now manage the expectations game after his likely New Hampshire win. Will his margin further shrink, and will the impending victory be seen as decisive enough? Romney is on the cusp, but he will now be put under a barrage of negative ads and commentary from Gingrich and Santorum. Gingrich just took down $5 million from Sheldon Adelson, so he will be able to fund some punishing ads against Romney. And he has made it clear that his mission in life is to do just that! Romney needs to hold on in New Hampshire and then do the same in South Carolina. He will be the nominee, but that car will have significantly more dents and dings than Romney was hoping for.
Had an interesting conversation with Ted Panos and the morning crew over at WCAP 980 am this morning on the relative merits of a town manager vs a mayor. The WCAP discussion was spurred by a letter to the editor, in the Lowell Sun, from John Macdonald, who ran for Lowell City Council in the past cycle. Macdonald advocates for Lowell looking at a charter change that would create a strong Mayor form of government to replace the current “Form E” style (strong Manager, ceremonial Mayor). Last Saturday Kendall Wallace wrote a Saturday column talking about the possibility of selecting the ceremonial Mayor in a different way. He did not advocate changing the Plan E form, but rather looking at the possibility of direct election of the “ceremonial” mayor. Of course Wallace points to the obvious disappointment of the losing candidate for Mayor, and the divisions that such a Council election tends to create among the members. Wallace makes some strong points which Macdonald jumped on in his letter to go for the bigger change. What do you think? Manager or Mayor?
Great conversation with Teddy on this, as well as some comments on the Methuen School Building project, the recall in Lawrence, and some punishment meted out to liquor establishments in Haverhill. Looking forward to next weeks conversation already. Tune in next Friday at 8:10 am to WCAP, 980 on your am dial, where everyone gets it!
Not too long ago I speculated on the possibility that Newt Gingrich might be able to deliver an early knockout to Mitt Romney by winning Iowa, South Carolina, and Florida, and running a strong second in New Hampshire. At that time Newt led Rpmney by wide margins in all but New Hampshire. Then the Romney money and organization targeted Gingrich with ferocity, dumping millions in negative ads on him in Iowa. Gingrich, having no money to respond, cried foul. But the Romney assault worked. Gingrich dropped like a stone in Iowa, allowing Romney to come in and steal a victory. Romney is now poised to win New Hampshire by a wide margin (David Paleologos over at Suffolk has Romney at 40%, Paul at 17%, Santorum at 11%, Gingrich at 9%, Huntsman at 8%, Perry at 1%), and is so sure of victory there that he has allowed himself time off from N.H. to campaign in South Carolina. Ahh yes South Carolina.
South Carolina, according to the Romney skeptics, is where the anti Romney firewall would be built. But it sure looks like that firewall is crumbling. The latest polling from South Carolina shows Romney at 37%, Rick Santorum at 19%, Newt Gingrich at 18%, (down from 43%), Ron Paul is at 12%, and jogging Rick Perry is at 5%. Romney has begun spending real money in South Carolina, along with rolling out endorsements from Governor Niki Haley and John McCain, who both campaigned with him this week in S.C. Romney’s ad on the NLRB and Boeing in South Carolina is an effective appeal in South Carolina, and shows just how far ahead of the Republican pack Romney is strategically.
Another factor that needs to be considered is how much Ron Paul has helped Mitt Romney throughout this process. Dr. Paul joined Romney in tearing down Newt Gingrich in Iowa, unveiling some pretty tough ads. He is now attacking the newest Republican “not Mitt” of the month, Rick Santorum, with another rough ad. Romney can just sit back and watch, comfortable in seeing the Paul numbers rise at the expense of Gingrich and Santorum.
So who can stop the Romney Express? Every time I read a story about Jon Huntsman being that person I simply laugh in amazement. This guy does not compete in Iowa, throws everything into New Hampshire, where he is polling in single digits, and is currently polling at 1% in South Carolina. He received the endorsement of the Boston Globe, which should cost him a few percentage points in a Republican primary. Huntsman is the candidate with a muddled message, no national organization, no support among Republicans, and yet gets glowing press as a potential alternative to Romney. It is a joke, and he will be joining Michelle Bachmann right after he gets his ass kicked in New Hampshire. Which brings us to the “running man” Rick Perry, who, despite the difficulty, keeps making a bigger ass of himself with each passing day. Perry went home to reassess after his Iowa debacle, went jogging, and decided to make a stand in South Carolina. I guess that is better than making a stand in New Hampshire, where he is at 1%. At least in South Carolina he is at 5%. After the South Carolina primary Perry’s campaign staff should take away his jogging shoes.
So it is up to either Santorum or Gingrich, neither of whom has the money or organization to compete. If either one even had a sliver of a chance it would have to be as the only conservative alternative to Romney, and even at that I doubt it. But Gingrich’s description of Santorum as a “junior partner” should put any thought of uniting to stop Romney to rest. Gingrich’s massive ego will not allow him to step aside in favor of Santorum, despite his apparent distaste for Romney.
Romney’s superior management skills are on display for all to see in this primary season. It will be substantially different in the general, where Romney will not be facing an opponent determined to shred himself. But Romney deserves credit for devising a solid campaign plan, and for having the discipline to stick to it. He also gets campaign kudos for making plan changes on the fly that were necessary to derail each Republican “not Mitt” of the month. Frankly speaking he is the only Republican with a chance in November.
Bill Manzi.com 
