Methuen Primary Results

Here are some results from Methuen:

    Republican Presidential: Total Votes = 2922. Uncast Votes = 3.

Mitt Romney 2187 74.85%

Rick Santorum 336 11.50%

Ron Paul 249 8.52%

Newt Gingrich 111 3.80%

Rick Perry 8

Jon Huntsman 8

Michelle Bachmann 3

No Preference 11

Write In Votes 9

Republican State Committee (Male): Total Votes 2250. Uncast Votes= 675

William Ryan 1565 69.56%

Alexander Veras 672 29.87%

Write In Votes 13

Republican State Committee (Female) Total Votes = 2184 Uncast Votes= 741

Dorothy Early 1232 56.41%

Sheila Mullins 941 43.09%

Write In Votes 11

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Republicans Fighting Deficits?

Some independent analysis has come out on the debt and deficit numbers attached to the Republican Presidential candidates economic proposals. From my vantage point the results are not at all surprising, as the debt and deficit projections exceed those of the President’s latest budget submission. What is surprising is that the Republicans continue to demand an end to debt and deficits, scream for a balanced budget amendment to the U.S. Constitution, and yet they continually produce plans that spike the deficit and debt, and are allowed to get away with it by the media. A very simple question? If Republicans believe in debt and deficit reduction why have none, with the possible exception of Ron Paul, produced a budget blueprint that shows balance? If not immediately then within four years? If not within four years then please tell us when we could expect the candidates to file with Congress a budget that is balanced? Seems like a simple question, but no media source will ask it? Why is that?

Usually when this type of thing gets talked about Republican’s get all upset and start ranting about the wild spending under President Obama and just won’t talk about the deficits that Republicans would create. They use the old misdirection, conveniently forgetting to mention that Democrats and the President are not in favor of immediate austerity, fearing that such a policy will lead the economy to contract, creating the type of death spiral we now see in Greece.

Krugman has used the analysis of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget to create the graph below. As you can see the debt as a percentage of GDP (in 2021) for the Republican candidates exceeds the number for President Obama (with the exception of Ron Paul). Now that doesn’t necessarily mean that I am saying President Obama is a big deficit warrior, but rather that the Republican’s are just talking nonsense when they discuss the debt. They are in fact not really concerned at all about debt and deficits. Read the Wall Street Journal for the real Republican position on deficits. As long as there are tax cuts involved deficits are fine, as we will “grow” our way out of them. The numbers are clear, and the Republicans, in keeping with history, have proven themselves cynical charlatans on debt and deficit reduction. And if we are going to dispute these numbers please spare me the “they come from a Krugman piece so they are no good” line.

Read the Krugman Times article here.

Read the Ezra Klein post on “dynamic fiscal scoring” here.

Krugman Graph

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Dan Winslow Takes on the Utilities

Republican Rep. Dan Winslow has managed to make a strong mark in his tenure as a State Representative, filing some pretty good legislation and utilizing strong social media skills to make sure his point of view is known. Although I don’t know Rep. Winslow I do believe that he is stirring the legislative pot in a good way, showing a willingness to criticize both Democrats and Republicans as he puts forward ideas that may make Legislative leadership from both sides of the aisle uncomfortable. And he sure does have some pretty good media skills.

Winslow is now promoting some common sense legislation to give consumers rebates on their bills when utilities leave them without service. Utilities have been under some pressure due to their sub-standard performance during the last few years. That performance has often led residents to be without power for days on end, with crews called in from far off locales to tend to the outages. The systemic inefficiency has caused the utilities to be on the receiving end of some real political heat and public outrage. Winslow is ahead of the curve on this one, and is shining a light into an area that quite frankly needs review. The Eagle Tribune wrote a recent editorial, after an investigative piece, that took the utilities to task. Winslow has also come up with a model local by-law that would force utilities to do better preventative maintenance on trees that may impact power lines. I have attached that legislation here. Good job by Rep. Winslow! The local ordinance is something that localities should look at, as it brings some common sense to the issue of utilities doing this maintenance up front. Below is the Winslow model local by-law.

Draft Bylaw To Prevent Loss of Electrical Service

To See Whether The Town Will Amend The Town Bylaw To Add The Following New Section: Article XX. Tree and Branch Maintenance in Public Rights of Way.

Section 1. Condition for Use of Public Rights of Way.
It shall be a condition of any easement, license or permission granted by the town for use of the public rights of way for purposes of utility lines that such lines shall be kept clear of branches and brush in accordance with this article.

Section 2. Clearance Requirements in Proximity to Utility Lines.
It shall be unlawful for branches or brush to encroach on or over the public right of way in which utility lines are located in violation of the annual vegetation management plan or annual hazard tree removal plan approved by the town pursuant to General Laws chapter 87, section 14 or, if no such plans have been approved, to any distance within 4 feet of either side of such lines or within 8 feet over such lines. The utilities or companies which have such easement, license or permission shall be jointly and severally responsible at their own expense for cutting to trimming any branches or brush which so encroach upon utility lines to comply with this Article, except as otherwise provided in Section 3.

Section 3. Trees Adjacent to Public Rights of Way.
Owners of any trees or brush located on property adjacent to public rights of way shall be deemed to have consented to cutting or trimming of branches and brush that encroach on the public right of way by utility companies in compliance with this article if they have been given at least 14 days written notice of proposed cutting or trimming without objection as provided in this section. Any notice shall include notification that any objection shall be required to be sent to the Board of Selectmen within 7 days or owners shall be deemed to have consented to such cutting and trimming. Any owner who does not consent to cutting or trimming by any utility company in accordance with this bylaw shall instead be subject to the requirements of this bylaw at their own expense. Nothing in this bylaw shall limit the power of tree wardens to trim, cut or remove trees in accordance with General Laws chapter 87, section 5.

Section 4. Preservation of Private Property Rights
Nothing in this Article shall authorize any person or utility company to enter upon or over privately owned property or to remove any tree located on private property. The scope of this Article shall be limited only to branches and brush that encroach on the public right of way.

Section 5. Enforcement
The Board of Selectmen or their designee shall enforce this Article by sending written notice to any utility which has been given an easement, license or permission within a public right of way by stating the street address or location of branches or brush that encroach on the public right of way in violation of this Article and directing that such branches or brush be cut or trimmed within 60 days after such notice. Failure by the utility to comply with this article within 60 days after such notice, or after such additional time as the Board of selectmen may agree in writing, shall be enforced by a civil infraction of $100. Each day and each tree shall constitute a separate violation.

http://www.necn.com/common/thePlatform/web/swf/flvPlayer.swf

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Romney Limping to Michigan Lead

Mitt Romney, the man Republicans love to hate, has been once again blessed by an opponent who can’t seem to stay out of the dung pile. Rick Santorum, who held a commanding Michigan lead over Romney a very short time ago, has managed to parlay a bunch of crazy talk right into second place. Santorum’s latest round of stupidity has him attacking JFK for saying that religion should be kept out of government. The JFK speech was given in 1963.

Presidential candidate Rick Santorum said Sunday that the notion of religion not playing role in politics “makes me want to throw up.”

“To say that people of faith have no role in the public square? You bet that makes me want to throw up. What kind of country do we live in where only people of non-faith can come in the public square and make their case? That makes me throw up. And that should make every American [throw up],” said Santorum on ABC’s “This Week.”

The former Pennsylvania senator was referring to John F. Kennedy’s famous 1963 speech that argued religion should be separate from politics.

“I don’t believe in an America where the separation between church and state is absolute,” he said.

Romney himself should be grateful that the Lord has apparently blessed him with a group of opponents who seem to want to immolate themselves at every possible opportunity. Rasmussen’s newest survey has Romney moving ahead by six, with NBC and Mitchell/R.S. both showing Romney up by 2%. The movement is towards Romney, even with the Romney team themselves seemingly fumbling the ball at every opportunity.

Romney appears on his way to victory in Michigan, and Rasmussen has him with a double digit lead in Arizona. He has staved off disaster again, but he is clearly not the same candidate he was a month ago. He has been rattled, and he is less confident on the trail. Certainly the campaign must just cringe at any unscripted moments out there. By the way where is Newt?

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Interview with Elizabeth Warren

I sat in on the Nancy Greenwood show on WCAP on Wednesday, and had the opportunity to talk with Democratic candidate for U.S. Senate Elizabeth Warren. We talked about Washington, the plight of the middle class, money in politics, the Consumer Financial Protection Agency, and a little bit more. Thanks to Elizabeth Warren for coming on.

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Song of the Week- Sounds of Silence

Happy President’s Day! The great Simon and Garfunkel at the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame doing “The Sounds of Silence”. Garfunkel still an unbelievable vocalist.

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Shoot the Messenger!

The new Suffolk Senate poll is out (posted on it this weekend) and the grumbling has already started about Suffolk and David Paleologos. The poll shows Scott Brown with a nine point lead, and of course Paleologos is now being roundly criticized by those who do not like the poll results.

Paleologos and Suffolk usually take it on the chin from whoever does not like the current poll results. Since I am not a survey specialist arguing about whether the polling questions skewed the results of a particular survey seem pointless to me. It is also likely true that since he started polling at Suffolk he may have had a few he would like to take back. But he has had some pretty notable successes, and I think he approaches his craft honestly, seeking the best result without regard to personal preference.

I am not really sure what is so unbelievable about a Scott Brown lead at this point in the race. If you said that Elizabeth Warren would be behind at this point in the race at her announcement event most people would have likely agreed. The lead itself, at this point, really does not mean too much. What matters is that we see Scott Brown ramping up his retail operation, and a looming problem with independent voters for Elizabeth Warren. Plenty of time to execute the Warren campaign blueprint. My own view is that blueprint should have plenty of direct voter contact, as Brown is already moving strongly in that area. Shooting the messenger will not change the work that needs to be done, as this has ALWAYS been a race that will be tough for both candidates.

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The Detroit Breakdown?

Mitt Romney has to be scratching his head (wonder if he can do that without mussing) about his predicament as he heads into next weeks big primary in Michigan. Most of the recent polling has him behind Rick Santorum in Michigan, with PPP’s newest poll showing Santorum up by 4% (down from a 15% lead a week or so ago). The survey shows Santorum at 37%, Romney at 33%, Ron Paul at 15%, and Newt Gingrich at 10%.

Romney and his team have sought from the very start to run a general election campaign, figuring they would lock down the nomination and not alienate independent voters while doing so. For a while it looked like they might be successful, as they have out-raised, out-organized, and generally out-hustled their Republican opponents. But every time they seem on the verge the Republican electorate drags them back to earth and presents a new challenge. Rick Santorum running the table on the Minnesota, Colorado, and Missouri contests certainly brought the Romney doubters forward, and a loss in Michigan for Romney would certainly hurt his electability argument, and create a mini-panic within the GOP elite. Romney is taking no chances, unleashing a barrage of ads highlighting his hometown ties to Michigan, as well as a series of attacks on Santorum. It looks like he has stanched the bleeding, and may just pull this off. But without question the Republican nominating process has pushed Romney further to the right than his campaign blueprint originally called for. He is fortunate that Santorum has taken a position on the auto bailout similar to his own, and that Santorum does not appear to have the money to strike back hard.

So what happens if Romney loses Michigan? The chatter about the Republican establishment seeking to provoke a late entry is still out there, with a focus on Jeb Bush, Mitch Daniels, Paul Ryan, or Chris Christie. But as Paul Ryan said himself on Meet the Press, and Karl Rove on Fox, it is just too late for another entry. Republican insiders recognize the beating they will take with Santorum at the head of the ticket, and are now desperate at that thought. Maybe they better get used to it. The Republican voters just don’t want to give the Republican establishment the “chosen” candidate. If Romney does have that “Detroit Breakdown” expect all hell to break loose in the GOP.

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Latest Suffolk Senate Poll

David Paleologos and Suffolk have released a new survey on the Massachusetts Senate race, showing Senator Scott Brown leading Elizabeth Warren by nine points, 49% to 40%. Recent polling has had Elizabeth Warren holding slight leads, but Scott Brown has ramped it up a bit for the past month or so, re-establishing a connection with voters and a lead.

This race is just beginning, with plenty of money to be spent, debates to be had, and pendulums to swing. Brown having a nine point lead is probably where handicappers would have thought the race would be at this point when Elizabeth Warren got in, but some positive polling results early for Warren probably got some folks a bit giddy. This is going to be a tough race. Scott Brown is an excellent campaigner with a lot of money to spend, and he will not go easily.

The Suffolk poll does contain some data that will be critical to the eventual outcome. Scott Brown won his race with Martha Coakley by winning independents by a huge spread (about 30 points I believe). That is the number to watch in the polling, and the key to victory for Brown. In this survey Brown leads Warren by 32%, 60% to 28% with independents. Warren must close that gap in order to win this race. Brown has a slight lead with women, and leads with men by 17%. When this race is done I would expect that Brown will have maintained his lead with men, but Elizabeth Warren must do better with females in order to win.

If the Republican Presidential race has taught us anything it is that the numbers can change quickly, and you can expect peaks and valleys in this race too. For today Scott Brown has to like where he sits, but he shouldn’t get too comfortable. For Elizabeth Warren there is lots of work to do, and a lot more face time with voters in her future. The Suffolk cross tabs are here. The Suffolk press release is here.

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