Please Stay Tuned…

We are updating Bill Manzi.com, please stay tuned.

Posted in Uncategorized | Leave a comment

The Ryan Proposal

Once again Paul Ryan has produced a “budget” for the U.S. House, taking aim at entitlement spending and claiming (again) to be making the tough choices that President Obama and the Democrats refuse to make. Does he hit the mark? It really looks like he has come up way short again.

It seems that most everyone agrees that the numbers Ryan produces are ridiculous, and that he has failed to specifically articulate key points in his plan (what tax breaks would be done away with?). That criticism comes not just from the left, but from the right as well. Ross Douthat argues that the numbers are less important than the “political goals” of achieving structural reform in entitlements.

In this sense, liberals are right to highlight their implausibility — but wrong to argue that they discredit the Ryan budget as a policy document.

Douthat concedes on the fact that the budget numbers don’t add up, but credits Ryan with making necessary changes to entitlements. But in fact, as Ezra Klein points out, Ryan’s budget ax is reserved primarily for Medicaid, not Medicare.

Perhaps the simplest way to understand what’s going on in Paul Ryan’s budget, and whether it’s plausible, is to look at page 13 of the Congressional Budget Office’s summary of the Ryan plan (pdf). That’s where the CBO lists Ryan’s assumptions about how future budgets would differ under his proposal and under an alternative, high-deficit scenario. That lets us see where, exactly, Ryan’s presumed savings are. And they’re not, for the most part, in Medicare.

In 2030, spending on Medicare is .75 percent of GDP lower than in the alternative fiscal scenario. In fact, Ryan and the Obama administration have proposed the same rate of growth for Medicare: GDP + 0.5 percent.

It’s Medicaid and other health spending, which includes the Affordable Care Act, where Ryan really brings down the hammer: That category falls by 1.25 percent of GDP. So Ryan’s cuts to health care for the poor are almost twice the size of his cuts to health care for the old.

Ryan’s revenue numbers are simply a joke, with a huge hole in revenues over a ten year period. From Klein:

The Tax Policy Center looked into the revenue loss associated with House Budget Chairman Paul Ryan’s plan to cut the tax code down to two rates of 10 percent and 25 percent. They estimate the changes would raise $31.1 trillion over 10 years, or 15.4 percent of GDP. That’s $10 trillion less than the tax code would raise if the Bush tax cuts were allowed to expire, and $4.6 trillion less than it would raise if all of the Bush tax cuts were extended.

Even with all of the Bush tax cuts extended Ryan comes up real short on the revenue side. Recognizing this Ryan indicates he will “close loopholes” to bring revenues back to the 18.5% of GDP that he thinks he can run government on. It is estimated that he would need to close about $6 trillion in loopholes, or tax expenditures, to hit that number. But alas Ryan refuses to identify which “loopholes” he will close. Will it be the mortgage interest deduction? The Washington Post just ran a story that detailed just how difficult it would be to “reform the tax code through deduction elimination”, an obvious point driven home by the beneficiaries of the deductions with the greatest dollar values.

Finally it takes the right wing Club for Growth to point out what I have been howling about since Ryan’s last budget proposal. Ryan does not produce fiscal balance (by his own measures) until 2040. From the Club for Growth statement:

“Despite containing several important reforms and pro-growth policies, the Ryan Budget falls short in two critical respects. First, it does not balance for decades. Secondly, it violates the Budget Control Act by waiving the sequester,” said Club for Growth President Chris Chocola. “By waiving the automatic spending cuts required under the Budget Control Act, this budget is asking Americans to trust future Congresses to do the hard work later. It is hard to have confidence that our long-term fiscal challenges will be met responsibly when the same Congress that passed the Budget Control Act wants to ignore it less than one year later. On balance, the Ryan Budget is a disappointment for fiscal conservatives.”

As the Club for Growth points out Ryan is in favor of eliminating the budget sequester called for by the failure of the Congressional “Super Committee”. Ryan, like many others, chooses to kick the can down the road, and the Club for Growth called him on it.

The big media types simply refuse to ask the simplest of questions to Republicans: “If you favor a balanced budget, or a balanced budget amendment to the U.S. Constitution, where is your balanced budget proposal? Ryan, like most Republicans, does not really favor a balanced budget. What he and the Party favor is a reallocation of budgetary resources away from the middle class and the poor towards upper earners. That point has never been clearer.

Read the CBO analysis of the Ryan proposal here.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/32545640

Visit msnbc.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/32545640

Visit msnbc.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy

Posted in National News | Tagged , , | Leave a comment

Michael Collins, the Father of Ireland

A “reprint” of my piece from last year on Michael Collins, which was published in the Tribune. Happy St Patrick’s Day.

As we celebrate St. Patrick’s Day it seems fitting to remember and honor the man that Irish historian Tim Pat Coogan called the “Man who Made Ireland,” Michael Collins.

Collins remains a controversial historical figure, having made decisions that have been both hailed and vilified. To this day there is discomfort in some Irish republican circles talking about the historical record when it comes to Collins. The signing of the Good Friday Agreements in 1998 inevitably led to comparisons with the Collins decision, as one of the Irish plenipotentiaries, to sign the Anglo-Irish Treaty of 1921. Is it a fair comparison, and does it help us to assess the Collins legacy? I submit that it does.

The Collins legacy was created by his immense contributions to the Irish cause in the War of Independence that began in 1919. Collins had multiple roles in the self proclaimed Irish government, including Minister of Finance, and Director of Intelligence. As Director of Intelligence Collins was responsible for combating the British intelligence service, as well as being instrumental in the formulation of the guerrilla tactics employed by the Irish Republican Army with such great success against the occupying British army. The tactics of Collins allowed a smaller, lesser equipped and self-trained guerrilla army to fight the world’s greatest military power to a draw.

Collins’ creation of “The Squad” also allowed him to brutally eliminate British intelligence assets in Ireland, reversing the ability of the British to know what the Irish resistance was planning, and giving the Irish an insight that had never been available to them prior to his efforts, namely an insight into what the British were planning. His contributions, recognized by all as indispensable, led Arthur Griffith, the founder of Sinn Fein, to remark that Collins was “the man who won the war.”

With the declaration of truce in July of 1921 the Irish and the British began to talk about settlement of the issues outstanding. The Irish position was indeed difficult, as the political agenda had been laid out by the Easter Proclamation of 1916, which declared an Irish Republic, with governing authority over the entire island. The political and governing authority of the self proclaimed Irish Dail, flowed from that document. The British had other ideas.

Michael Collins was sent to London in October of 1921 as part of the Irish negotiating team, empowered by the Irish Dail to sign a treaty with the British. Space will not allow a full examination of the issues involved in the sending of Collins, but it is clear that the Irish President, Eamon De Valera, having been to London in July with a negotiating team that did not include Collins, realized that any agreement would, by necessity, fall short of the Irish ideal. He chose not to go again, but to send Collins and Arthur Griffith as the heads of the Irish delegation. De Valera’s decision, and subsequent actions, had tragic consequences for the Irish nation.

Collins brought home a treaty, later ratified by the Cabinet, the Dail, and the Irish people, that gave the unionist element in the North a veto over entry into the Irish Free State, gave Ireland Dominion status and recognized the British king as sovereign, and allowed British control over Irish ports. But it removed the British military presence from the 26 counties of the newly created Irish Free State, which enabled Collins to correctly state that the treaty was a “stepping stone” to true Irish independence. History has borne out the Collins judgment, but the treaty itself propelled the Irish Civil War, and split the Irish political leadership in two, and led to the death of Collins.

The political arguments centered principally on the oath of allegiance to the British king, and the acceptance of partition through the unionist veto in the northern six counties. Collins principal political opponent on the treaty, Eamon De Valera, entered the Free State Dail in 1927 and took the oath. He later, using the Free State apparatus that he had so vehemently opposed, got rid of the oath and produced a new constitution for Ireland. The Irish Free State, under a Fine Gael Taoiseach, proclaimed Ireland a Republic in 1940. Collins argument, that the Free State would propel Ireland towards a fuller freedom, had come to pass.

And so we arrive at the Good Friday Agreement, reached in 1998. The agreement included the I.R.A., and dealt with the issue of partition, amongst a host of other issues. In short it codified the principle that the northern six counties could not be compelled to join the Irish Republic, but would do so only by vote of the six counties. It deleted the provision in the De Valera constitution that made a territorial claim to the Northern six by the Irish Republic, and did so after approval by the voters of the Republic of Ireland.

The Good Friday Agreement, as well as the evolvement of the Free State into the Irish Republic, provides undeniable proof of the essential brilliance of Michael Collins. He saw in 1921 what it took so many others multiple decades to see. That vision and the record that follows him surely vindicates the difficult, but ultimately necessary decisions he had to make to create the Irish Free State and ultimately the Irish Republic. He truly is the father of modern Ireland.

Posted in International | Tagged | Leave a comment

Romney Sweeps to Victory in American Samoa

Mitt Romney took a couple of tough losses in the deep South, losing to Rick Santorum in both Alabama and Mississippi. And while it is true that Romney continues to accumulate delegates he is spending gobs of cash to do so. As Mike Murphy points out Romney is winning the delegate battle but “losing the narrative”. He continues to be blessed by the division of his opponents, with Newt Gingrich’s continued presence in this race a godsend to the Mittster. Mitt will be the nominee, as he is so far ahead of the pack organizationally that no other outcome is really possible. His win in American Samoa, on the same night he lost in Alabama and Mississippi, is good for a little fun, but shows that Romney is delegate hunting everywhere. He picked up all nine in Somoa.

Every day that goes by brings Romney closer to the magic number, but more marked up as a candidate. You would expect a “convention reset” for Romney, but the craziness coming out of the Republicans will make that reset just a wee bit harder. They are alienating some pretty large constituencies, including women and Latinos. I expect the race to be tight, and I would never dismiss Romney’s chances in the general. But from where I sit his ability to tack back to the center post-convention has been severely compromised. The President should not be counting the victory just yet, but he is looking pretty good today.

Posted in National News | Tagged , , | Leave a comment

Methuen Primary Results Local Races

Methuen Democratic Town Committee

William Manzi III 477

Stephen Zanni 440

Matthew Kraunelis 415

Joseph Bella 412

James Atkinson 397

Linda Harvey 394

Lisa Yarid Ferry 386

Thomas Firth III 381

Eleni Varitimos 377

Barbara Degaspe 376

William Toomey 375

Diane Juknavorian 375

Lucille Donegan 374

R. Crowley Leeblanc 374

Richard Digrazia 362

Bryan Sweet 359

Christine Metzemaekers 359

Loretta Platt 358

Janet Griffin 355

Daniel Marino 355

Vincent DiGrazia 353

Angelo Alaimo 352

Salvatore Albano 345

Jay Griffin 336

Thomasine Corbett 323

Write In Votes: 13

Posted in Methuen | Tagged | 3 Comments

Methuen Primary Results

Here are some results from Methuen:

    Republican Presidential: Total Votes = 2922. Uncast Votes = 3.

Mitt Romney 2187 74.85%

Rick Santorum 336 11.50%

Ron Paul 249 8.52%

Newt Gingrich 111 3.80%

Rick Perry 8

Jon Huntsman 8

Michelle Bachmann 3

No Preference 11

Write In Votes 9

Republican State Committee (Male): Total Votes 2250. Uncast Votes= 675

William Ryan 1565 69.56%

Alexander Veras 672 29.87%

Write In Votes 13

Republican State Committee (Female) Total Votes = 2184 Uncast Votes= 741

Dorothy Early 1232 56.41%

Sheila Mullins 941 43.09%

Write In Votes 11

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged | 4 Comments

Republicans Fighting Deficits?

Some independent analysis has come out on the debt and deficit numbers attached to the Republican Presidential candidates economic proposals. From my vantage point the results are not at all surprising, as the debt and deficit projections exceed those of the President’s latest budget submission. What is surprising is that the Republicans continue to demand an end to debt and deficits, scream for a balanced budget amendment to the U.S. Constitution, and yet they continually produce plans that spike the deficit and debt, and are allowed to get away with it by the media. A very simple question? If Republicans believe in debt and deficit reduction why have none, with the possible exception of Ron Paul, produced a budget blueprint that shows balance? If not immediately then within four years? If not within four years then please tell us when we could expect the candidates to file with Congress a budget that is balanced? Seems like a simple question, but no media source will ask it? Why is that?

Usually when this type of thing gets talked about Republican’s get all upset and start ranting about the wild spending under President Obama and just won’t talk about the deficits that Republicans would create. They use the old misdirection, conveniently forgetting to mention that Democrats and the President are not in favor of immediate austerity, fearing that such a policy will lead the economy to contract, creating the type of death spiral we now see in Greece.

Krugman has used the analysis of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget to create the graph below. As you can see the debt as a percentage of GDP (in 2021) for the Republican candidates exceeds the number for President Obama (with the exception of Ron Paul). Now that doesn’t necessarily mean that I am saying President Obama is a big deficit warrior, but rather that the Republican’s are just talking nonsense when they discuss the debt. They are in fact not really concerned at all about debt and deficits. Read the Wall Street Journal for the real Republican position on deficits. As long as there are tax cuts involved deficits are fine, as we will “grow” our way out of them. The numbers are clear, and the Republicans, in keeping with history, have proven themselves cynical charlatans on debt and deficit reduction. And if we are going to dispute these numbers please spare me the “they come from a Krugman piece so they are no good” line.

Read the Krugman Times article here.

Read the Ezra Klein post on “dynamic fiscal scoring” here.

Krugman Graph

Posted in National News | Tagged , | 7 Comments

Dan Winslow Takes on the Utilities

Republican Rep. Dan Winslow has managed to make a strong mark in his tenure as a State Representative, filing some pretty good legislation and utilizing strong social media skills to make sure his point of view is known. Although I don’t know Rep. Winslow I do believe that he is stirring the legislative pot in a good way, showing a willingness to criticize both Democrats and Republicans as he puts forward ideas that may make Legislative leadership from both sides of the aisle uncomfortable. And he sure does have some pretty good media skills.

Winslow is now promoting some common sense legislation to give consumers rebates on their bills when utilities leave them without service. Utilities have been under some pressure due to their sub-standard performance during the last few years. That performance has often led residents to be without power for days on end, with crews called in from far off locales to tend to the outages. The systemic inefficiency has caused the utilities to be on the receiving end of some real political heat and public outrage. Winslow is ahead of the curve on this one, and is shining a light into an area that quite frankly needs review. The Eagle Tribune wrote a recent editorial, after an investigative piece, that took the utilities to task. Winslow has also come up with a model local by-law that would force utilities to do better preventative maintenance on trees that may impact power lines. I have attached that legislation here. Good job by Rep. Winslow! The local ordinance is something that localities should look at, as it brings some common sense to the issue of utilities doing this maintenance up front. Below is the Winslow model local by-law.

Draft Bylaw To Prevent Loss of Electrical Service

To See Whether The Town Will Amend The Town Bylaw To Add The Following New Section: Article XX. Tree and Branch Maintenance in Public Rights of Way.

Section 1. Condition for Use of Public Rights of Way.
It shall be a condition of any easement, license or permission granted by the town for use of the public rights of way for purposes of utility lines that such lines shall be kept clear of branches and brush in accordance with this article.

Section 2. Clearance Requirements in Proximity to Utility Lines.
It shall be unlawful for branches or brush to encroach on or over the public right of way in which utility lines are located in violation of the annual vegetation management plan or annual hazard tree removal plan approved by the town pursuant to General Laws chapter 87, section 14 or, if no such plans have been approved, to any distance within 4 feet of either side of such lines or within 8 feet over such lines. The utilities or companies which have such easement, license or permission shall be jointly and severally responsible at their own expense for cutting to trimming any branches or brush which so encroach upon utility lines to comply with this Article, except as otherwise provided in Section 3.

Section 3. Trees Adjacent to Public Rights of Way.
Owners of any trees or brush located on property adjacent to public rights of way shall be deemed to have consented to cutting or trimming of branches and brush that encroach on the public right of way by utility companies in compliance with this article if they have been given at least 14 days written notice of proposed cutting or trimming without objection as provided in this section. Any notice shall include notification that any objection shall be required to be sent to the Board of Selectmen within 7 days or owners shall be deemed to have consented to such cutting and trimming. Any owner who does not consent to cutting or trimming by any utility company in accordance with this bylaw shall instead be subject to the requirements of this bylaw at their own expense. Nothing in this bylaw shall limit the power of tree wardens to trim, cut or remove trees in accordance with General Laws chapter 87, section 5.

Section 4. Preservation of Private Property Rights
Nothing in this Article shall authorize any person or utility company to enter upon or over privately owned property or to remove any tree located on private property. The scope of this Article shall be limited only to branches and brush that encroach on the public right of way.

Section 5. Enforcement
The Board of Selectmen or their designee shall enforce this Article by sending written notice to any utility which has been given an easement, license or permission within a public right of way by stating the street address or location of branches or brush that encroach on the public right of way in violation of this Article and directing that such branches or brush be cut or trimmed within 60 days after such notice. Failure by the utility to comply with this article within 60 days after such notice, or after such additional time as the Board of selectmen may agree in writing, shall be enforced by a civil infraction of $100. Each day and each tree shall constitute a separate violation.

http://www.necn.com/common/thePlatform/web/swf/flvPlayer.swf

Posted in Methuen, State News | Tagged | Leave a comment

Romney Limping to Michigan Lead

Mitt Romney, the man Republicans love to hate, has been once again blessed by an opponent who can’t seem to stay out of the dung pile. Rick Santorum, who held a commanding Michigan lead over Romney a very short time ago, has managed to parlay a bunch of crazy talk right into second place. Santorum’s latest round of stupidity has him attacking JFK for saying that religion should be kept out of government. The JFK speech was given in 1963.

Presidential candidate Rick Santorum said Sunday that the notion of religion not playing role in politics “makes me want to throw up.”

“To say that people of faith have no role in the public square? You bet that makes me want to throw up. What kind of country do we live in where only people of non-faith can come in the public square and make their case? That makes me throw up. And that should make every American [throw up],” said Santorum on ABC’s “This Week.”

The former Pennsylvania senator was referring to John F. Kennedy’s famous 1963 speech that argued religion should be separate from politics.

“I don’t believe in an America where the separation between church and state is absolute,” he said.

Romney himself should be grateful that the Lord has apparently blessed him with a group of opponents who seem to want to immolate themselves at every possible opportunity. Rasmussen’s newest survey has Romney moving ahead by six, with NBC and Mitchell/R.S. both showing Romney up by 2%. The movement is towards Romney, even with the Romney team themselves seemingly fumbling the ball at every opportunity.

Romney appears on his way to victory in Michigan, and Rasmussen has him with a double digit lead in Arizona. He has staved off disaster again, but he is clearly not the same candidate he was a month ago. He has been rattled, and he is less confident on the trail. Certainly the campaign must just cringe at any unscripted moments out there. By the way where is Newt?

Posted in National News | Tagged , , | 1 Comment

Vertical Response Email List

Please sign up to receive an email newsletter from me that will contain plenty of good (and maybe some surprising) information. I will start sending the newsletter fairly soon, and it will deal with news, politics, and may even serve as a campaign newsletter.

Sign Up Today!

* required

Email Address: *

First Name:

Last Name:

City:

Email Marketing by VerticalResponse

Posted in Methuen, Surveys | Tagged | Leave a comment