Shoot the Messenger!

The new Suffolk Senate poll is out (posted on it this weekend) and the grumbling has already started about Suffolk and David Paleologos. The poll shows Scott Brown with a nine point lead, and of course Paleologos is now being roundly criticized by those who do not like the poll results.

Paleologos and Suffolk usually take it on the chin from whoever does not like the current poll results. Since I am not a survey specialist arguing about whether the polling questions skewed the results of a particular survey seem pointless to me. It is also likely true that since he started polling at Suffolk he may have had a few he would like to take back. But he has had some pretty notable successes, and I think he approaches his craft honestly, seeking the best result without regard to personal preference.

I am not really sure what is so unbelievable about a Scott Brown lead at this point in the race. If you said that Elizabeth Warren would be behind at this point in the race at her announcement event most people would have likely agreed. The lead itself, at this point, really does not mean too much. What matters is that we see Scott Brown ramping up his retail operation, and a looming problem with independent voters for Elizabeth Warren. Plenty of time to execute the Warren campaign blueprint. My own view is that blueprint should have plenty of direct voter contact, as Brown is already moving strongly in that area. Shooting the messenger will not change the work that needs to be done, as this has ALWAYS been a race that will be tough for both candidates.

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