Last Night's (Representative) Debate

Yes there was a big debate last night. The 14th Essex State Representative debate took place at the MCTV Studio in Methuen. Candidates Diana DiZoglio(D) and Karin Rhoton (R) faced off in a largely polite forum that featured a pretty neat interactive component, with live questions emailed in during the debate. At least one was used on the fly. Great effort by MCTV. For more information on replays of the debate check out the MCTV website.

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Suffolk in New Hampshire

With swing state polling really tightening up the State of New Hampshire could really be a major factor in the 2012 Presidential election. As with the Bush-Gore election New Hampshire and its four electoral votes could make the difference between winning and losing for Barack Obama or Mitt Romney.

New Hampshire was once a reliably Republican state in national elections. Starting in 1968 the state went Republican 6 straight times, voting for Nixon in that year and in 1972, Gerald Ford in 1976, Ronald Reagan in 1980 and 1984, and George H.W. Bush in 1988. President Bill Clinton broke the streak, and New Hampshire voted for the Big Dog in 1992, and 1996, and a Democratic resurgence in the Granite State was started. But Al Gore took the pipe in 2000, losing to President George W. Bush narrowly, with the margin of victory being provided by the independent candidacy of Ralph Nader, who got 3.9% of the vote, tipping the state to Bush. (Bush 48.1%, Gore 46.8%). John Kerry carried the state in 2004, and Barack Obama in 2008.

Despite the gains made in the state by Democrats New Hampshire saw a Republican surge in 2010, with Republicans taking control of both Houses of the State Legislature by wide margins. It was a rout. So the State could not, in my estimation, be colored blue nationally. Republicans continue to show that they can win in this state.

Paleologos is showing that division in this poll, with Barack Obama and Mitt Romney tied at 47%, with 4% undecided. Independent candidate Gary Johnson is at 2%, occupying valuable real estate in a race this close. Paleologos took a measure of what some Johnson voters (and some undecided)would do if they could only vote for Obama or Romney. From the Suffolk Press release.

When a subset of 30 undecided and Gary Johnson respondents were given the choice between Romney or Obama only, Romney led 47 percent to 13 percent, with 40 percent remaining undecided.
“Politics is full of ironies. Gary Johnson voters are predisposed to voting against the incumbent president, but Johnson’s presence on the New Hampshire presidential ballot is actually helping Obama,” said Paleologos. “Those anti-incumbent voters – at least right now – aren’t finding their way to Mitt Romney.”

Ouch! Roger Stone of the Johnson campaign will be delighted to be tormenting Mitt Romney in such a potentially critical way.

Romney has narrowed the gender gap in this poll, with Obama leading with women by a 50% to 46% margin. Obama trails with men by a 49% to 43% margin. In terms of geography Romney leads Obama in the two largest New Hampshire counties, Hillsborough by a 46% to 43% margin, and Rockingham County by a 54% to 43% margin. Obama leads in the eight combined smaller counties by a 51% to 45% margin. Obviously Romney will be trying to drive turnout in those two large counties.

Barack Obama has a job performance rating of 47%, with 47% disapproving. His favorability, usually higher than his job performance numbers, stands at 50%, with 44% unfavorable. Romney stands at 48% favorable, and 46% unfavorable.

This is a jump ball, with field work critical for each side. Gary Johnson looks a little bit like Ralph Nader did in 2000, and could tip this race towards President Obama.

In the race for Governor Maggie Hassan (41%) holds a slight lead on Republican Ovide Lamontagne (38%), with Libertarian John Babiarz getting a critical 4% of the vote. It is another case of the third party candidate having a chance to change the course of this election. There is still a large bloc of undecided in this race at 16%, which means it is still wide open, and will bring some big spending by both candidates down the stretch.

Some interesting tidbits from the issue polling. On the ballot question to ban an income tax by constitutional amendment 41% were in favor, 39% opposed, and 19% undecided. That is a shocker to me, as opposition to a personal income tax has been a staple of New Hampshire politics for decades. The survey also asked about whether a sales tax should be instituted. 74% opposed that idea, with 16% in favor, and 10% undecided. Now that is not shocking.

Another key poll, with some great data, from David Paleologos and Suffolk.

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Battleground Ohio

A new Public Policy poll has some very interesting data from Ohio. Just about everyone agrees that the road for Mitt Romney is much more difficult if he loses Ohio. Romney would really have to run the table on the other “swing” states if he loses in Ohio. The value of the Buckeye State is shown by both campaigns pouring money into the state, as well as Virginia and FLA. Time and resources mean that we have found something that both campaigns do agree on. Ohio is critical.

With the first Presidential debate seeming to move the overall dial in favor of Mitt Romney the impacts of “early voting” are very important. In the PPP survey 19% of respondents reported having already voted, and those folks have broken out in favor of President Obama by a 76% to 24% margin. It is evidence of the superior Obama ground game in Ohio, but it is not over. Among those who have not voted Romney leads Obama by a 51% to 45% margin. As PPP points out Romney has some ground to make up before election day. The numbers please.

The President leads Romney by a 51% to 45% margin overall in Ohio. Obama’s favorability rating, in this survey, is at 50% (50%-48%), while Romney is slightly underwater at 45% favorable, 51% unfavorable. Ohio voters thought Joe Biden won the Vice Presidential debate by a 46% to 37% margin, with independents thinking Biden won by a 44% to 32% margin.

In the Senate race incumbent Democrat Sherrod Brown leads Republican Josh Mandel by a 49% to 42% margin, consistent with polling throughout the race. I am ready to chalk up the Senate race in Ohio to Brown at this point.

So why has Mitt Romney not been able to move the numbers in Ohio? Well what about the auto industry and the Obama led bailout of the Big Three. I think it is a major factor, and the poll numbers seem to bear that out. Ohio voters support the auto bailout by a 54% to 37% margin, and with independents that number is 58% to 35%. 79% consider it to be an “important” issue, and 42% consider it to be a “very important” issue. Think it is impacting this race? The President used his weekly address to talk about the reemergence of the American auto industry. I am sure that is just a coincidence!

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Education Reform in Lawrence

A terrific new story in Commonwealth Magazine focused on the state receivership of the Lawrence Public Schools. Why receivership for Lawrence? How about some stats?

Already low achievement scores fell even further, with three-quarters of the district’s schools experiencing declines in proficiency rates on the statewide MCAS test during the 2010-11 school year. By 2011, Lawrence was in the bottom 1 percent of all districts in the state, with less than 30 percent of students scoring proficient or above in math and only 41 percent proficient in English. Meanwhile, the city once known for its bustling textile industry has become a drop-out factory, with half of its students not finishing high school.

So despite the protestations that “receivership” was not warranted I would beg to differ. The Commonwealth did the only thing they could do if you would hope to give the students of Lawrence a fighting chance.

So what are the issues? At the risk of over-simplifying I think they are broken down into three categories.

1) Pay. Part of the new program is longer hours in the classroom for students. Keep in mind the statistics cited above. Most everybody involved in “education reform” agrees that longer school days and more learning time can do nothing but help students, especially in a failing urban system. Truth is the benefits are not limited to urban systems, but that is a story for another day. Receiver Riley has brought forward a program of extended learning time, and imposed it. Frank McLaughlin, representing the Lawrence teachers, objects.

“LTU agrees that lengthening the school day, if done right, can be an important part of improving education. But we are extremely concerned about the district’s plan to lengthen the school year and day by hundreds of hours in some Level 4 schools this coming school year and expanding this extra time to all schools in 2013-14,” McLaughlin said. “These extra hours come with a proposed increase in compensation for all teachers by the 2013-14 school year of just $1,500 a year. For many, this will be less than three dollars an hour, well below the state’s minimum wage.

So the union agrees, but they want more money. Nothing in that response about what might be good for students.

2) Teacher Evaluations. As the education reform movement gained steam throughout the country the shameful stories of union contractual guarantees that kept failing teachers in place were exposed nationwide. Since that time teacher unions have retreated on the issue, but only slightly. The most grievous examples of abuse have been modified, but trying to get a non-performing teacher out of the classroom can still be overly difficult. Contrary to charges that such talk shows a tendency to blame teachers for all of the educational system’s ills I believe it simply acknowledges the obvious. Every profession has some folks that are not up to par, including the teaching profession. It should not take multiple years and thousands of dollars to remove ineffective teachers. Riley has come into Lawrence with authority, but has wielded it carefully.

Over the summer, Riley exercised his authority to conduct a review of all teachers in Lawrence who had been flagged because of concerns over the quality of their work. Out of a teaching force of about 900 teachers, just 58 were identified for possible action. Of these, only two were ultimately fired, with 31 retiring or resigning, 15 put on improvement plans to be monitored over the current school year, and another 10 cleared entirely to return to classrooms. Riley also dismissed one principal, while another left voluntarily.
“We’re not an employment agency” is a favored line Riley uses to emphasize that good outcomes for students has to be the driving factor in personnel policies. At the same time, given the broad authority he had to dismiss teachers, Riley applied an awfully light touch. “You can’t fire your way to results,” says Riley, who maintains that the vast majority of the city’s teachers are doing a good job—or have the potential to do so with the right support and school leadership. “I’m not sure that Law¬rence teachers have been given a broad framework of what good teaching looks like and what the exectations are,” he says.

Receiver Riley, as pointed out, has used his new authority judiciously. Despite that obvious fact the union, through its current President, Frank McLaughlin, objected vociferously.

3) Utilization of Charters, and Charter style management of City Schools.

High-performing charter schools have become the template for many changes being pushed not only in the Lawrence receivership but in reform efforts across the country. Longer days, more school control over staffing and budgeting, intensive use of student assessment data, and higher expectations for student achievement are all common to charter schools. The turnaround plan says the broad autonomy the outside partners have had to run their other schools “has yielded significant gains in student achievement” and “demonstrates the potential that our own schools can attain.”
Though charters have been the model for many of these approaches, district schools have also employed some of these practices—and shown great results. Among them is Edwards Middle School in Boston, where Riley served as principal from 2007 to 2009. Since 2006, Edwards School students have cut the gap between their English scores and the statewide average by 80 percent, and 8th graders at the school now outperform the statewide proficiency average in math by 8 points.
Under Riley’s leadership, the Edwards became one of a handful of Massachusetts schools taking part in a state initiative testing longer school days. Riley also brought an intensive, data-focused approach that helped teachers tailor lessons to individual students’ skills and needs. “I think that’s a big part of the story at the Edwards,” he says.

So changing the system to try new educational initiatives, where failure has been the norm rather than the exception, is now a bad thing? I an not an educator, and I understand that not all charter schools have had success, but does that mean we just stay with the current system? Randi Weingarten would argue against this position. She said, in Commonwealth:

In a telephone interview, Weingarten says the union agrees that significant change is needed in Lawrence. But she says it shouldn’t happen without the voice that represents teachers. “Simply saying you want teachers to have a role but attempting to divide them from their voice is not real collaboration,” Weingarten says of the marginalizing of the union.

The history of successful, and timely, union negotiations in this area have not, based on what I have seen,produced the type of change so necessary in failing systems. And school receivership does not look to be the model for localities in the future. But disastrous results with students, tolerated for years by the major stakeholders in Lawrence, has precipitated the state takeover. Injuring the union, or trying to circumvent union rights, is not the political goal here, unlike the situation in Wisconsin. The goal is to provide educational opportunity for students in Lawrence, which has been denied for far too long. Comparisons to Wisconsin, especially in light of Riley’s obvious deference to some union sensibilities, makes such a comparison laughable. Would you like to see onerous? Let a Republican Governor name the receiver.

Finally there was something mentioned by Teacher Union President Frank McLaughlin that he had right, but that, in my opinion, only buttressed the case for state intervention.

For his part, McLaughlin rejects the state’s characterization of the Lawrence schools, saying they haven’t been chronically underperforming so much as “chronically corrupt.” His point about the history of dreadful district leadership is well taken. And it’s easy to see how he feels teachers are now being made to pay for the sins of longstanding administrative failings.

Now that is something that everyone can agree with. The locals have made some pretty bad choices on school leadership. Their efforts in this area after the departure of Wilfredo Laboy as Superintendent were nothing short of a complete embarrassment. But doesn’t that weigh in favor of the state action? If the system is sinking, and the locals showed all that they were incapable of even taking rudimentary corrective steps what choice was left to the State? To let the sink ship because of “process”, or to bow to the concept of home rule at the expense of the students? Teachers are not to blame for the system failings, but the idea that there are years available to make slight changes within the current framework is to leave failure in place. I don’t believe that would have been the right choice for the students of Lawrence.

Tribune story on the Teachers Union blasting the state turnaround plan.

The Tribune column by Jim Stergios of the Pioneer Institute.

Review of the Stephen Brill book, “Class Warfare“.

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VP Debate Thoughts

I had an opportunity to watch the Vice Presidential debate last night, and I although I was impressed with both candidates I gave the edge to Vice President Joseph Biden. In terms of accomplishing goals I think both candidates likely achieved what they needed. The Democratic base, a little dispirited after the Presidential debate, is now invigorated. Based on some of the Republican response I think it fair to say that they were very satisfied with the Ryan performance. The big question is what impact, if any, did the debate have on the undecided.

Biden took the debate to Ryan, and like Romney in the Presidential debate I considered him to be the aggressor. Ryan certainly offered more potent counter-punching than the President did, but Biden gave Democrats reason to cheer by continually assaulting Ryan on the 47% issue, by poking the clear holes in the Romney tax reduction plan, and on the Romney position on Afghanistan. I thought Ryan scored on the Libyan issue, and did the best he could with a weak political hand on Medicare.

In the end I believe that moving the needle will only happen at the Presidential debate level. But the VP debate was, in my opinion, a good one that crystallized the differences between the two very different visions for America.

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Massachusetts Senate Debate

The Elizabeth Warren-Scott Brown debate series had volume 3 last night, in Western Massachusetts. I watched it, and although I am a partisan Dem I thought both candidates were better than in the two prior debates, with sharper focus on their core message(s). The moderator, in my opinion, did a superb job, and the debate focused on issues rather than on some of the nonsense that we had seen in the prior two. Obviously I am a Warren supporter, but I think on whole neither side scored a knockout, or even a knock down. This race will be won in the field. The full debate is below.

http://www.c-spanvideo.org/videoLibrary/assets/swf/CSPANPlayer.swf?pid=308580-1

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Massachusetts Open Record Law in the News

As a former Mayor I can tell you that information requests under the state Open Records Law can be time consuming to fill, and on occasion require some serious staff time to complete. With that having been said the law requires public officials to respond in a timely fashion to such requests, and you cannot have a system of open government without giving citizens the right to freely access documents generated by government that they pay for.

In Lawrence Valley Patriot owner Tom Duggan has filed a request for a multitude of documents from the City of Lawrence. Duggan has been a major critic of the Mayor of Lawrence, William Lantigua, and the request is likely being viewed by City officials from that vantage point. Duggan has been writing and talking about this for some time, as the request has essentially been ignored by the City of Lawrence for months. He is in court today in an attempt to force compliance under the State Open Records Law.

As much as it pains me to admit it Duggan has it right. It does not matter who files the request, friend or foe, the law must be followed. There is a larger issue than this in Lawrence but that is a story for another day. For today I can say that I am not all that familiar with the penalty portion of the law, but it appears that it should be strengthened, especially for instances of willful disregard. Changes to the law should provide teeth to the enforcement section, especially for cases like this. The law should also provide for the awarding of court costs to the winning party. Citizens, and yes even Tom Duggan, should be able to secure documents covered by the State Open Records Law without having to go to Court.

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Suffolk in Nevada

The key battleground state of Nevada has new polling from Suffolk University in both the Presidential race and a key Senate race. David Paleologos will remain at the very top of the news cycle again with this key survey. The numbers please!

In the Presidential race President Obama clings to a narrow lead over Mitt Romney by a 47% to 45% margin, with a margin of error of 4.4%. Two independent candidates (Virgil Goode and Gary Johnson) are polling at 1%, making them a factor in this race. Paleologos has focused on geography, which shows Nevada with distinct pockets of strength for each candidate. From the Suffolk press release.

“After a strong debate performance, Mitt Romney is within striking distance of President Obama in Nevada,” said David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center in Boston. “However, Obama’s big lead in Clark County – the state’s largest – has enabled his campaign to run up the score. In Washoe County, the results closely align with the statewide numbers.”

Obama led 50-42 in Clark County and 47-43 in Washoe County. However, in the remaining Nevada counties, Romney led 63 percent to 30 percent.

The geography is indeed critical, and in a race this close the respective ground games of the candidates will, in my opinion, decide the Nevada outcome. The President and his team will be driving turnout heavily where he has strength, and Mitt Romney will be trying to do the same. Whichever side wants it more will win Nevada.

President Obama has a favorable rating of 50% (45% unfavorable), while Mitt Romney has a 46% favorable (45% unfavorable). The President’s job approval rating is at 48% approval (48% disapprove).

The survey also asked for views on “ObamaCare”, and like many surveys the support for the program is on the upswing. When asked if this law was “good for Nevada” 45% said no, 44% said yes, and 11% were undecided. The issue is beginning to lose steam for Republicans, and if Democrats can accentuate the positive and popular aspects of the law they will be able to, in my opinion, drive support to it, especially with the elderly.

In the important Nevada U.S. Senate race Republican Dean Heller leads Democrat Shelley Berkeley by a 40% to 37% margin. That race features independent candidate David Lory VanderBeek, who has 7% of the vote, with 14% undecided. VanderBeek is a Ron Paul Libertarian, and he could tip this race to the Democrat. This is still wide open.

The poll asked about the Presidential debate, and 79% of the respondents had watched. Of those a whopping 74% thought Mitt Romney had won that debate, with only 19% thinking Barack Obama won, and 7% undecided.

As a final note Harry Reid was deeply underwater, with 49% having an unfavorable view of the Majority Leader, and 37% viewing him favorably. All I can say in response to that is thank God for Sharron Angle.

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Paleologos in the News

Suffolk University, and pollster David Paleologos, are in the news after an appearance with Bill O’Reilly on Fox. That clip is below.

A couple of days ago I posed a question, via twitter, for Paleologos, asking what views he had about the Presidential debate moving the needle in swing states. Here is our exchange.

@davidpaleologos When will we see some post debate swing state polling? Did the debate move the needle?

@billmanzi It has moved the needle in NC, VA, & FL from blue to red. Not comfortable with color changes beyond those 3 states at this point

So I beat Bill O’Reilly to the punch, getting David Paleologos to say that North Carolina, Virginia, and FLA have moved red on twitter. Now David is under attack, with the Daily Kos and others expressing indignation that he would appear to make the call on those three states a month before the election.

We have seen attacks on pollsters from the right, and now the left. Suffolk and Paleologos have a great record, and I think that giving Paleologos an opportunity to talk about those three states in more detail is in order before blanket condemnations are issued. Looking forward to some big Suffolk polling as we come down the stretch, and I hope to be able to talk to David about this and other issues right here on the blog at some point.

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Brown Edges Into Lead

A new WBUR/Mass Inc. survey has Scott Brown edging ahead of Elizabeth Warren by a 47% to 43% margin. With “leaners” included the margin is 48% to 45%, with 5% undecided.

The poll also measured the Presidential race with Barack Obama leading Mitt Romney by a 52% to 36% margin. While that may appear to be a substantial lead it is down substantially from the pre-debate Suffolk poll that had Barack Obama with a 27% lead. We had discussed the “Romney drag” on Scott Brown in an earlier post, but the Romney debate victory looks like it may be having a positive impact on Brown’s candidacy. What the good Lord giveth, the good Lord taketh away.

So what are the numbers under the hood? I have focused, in this race, on two key numbers. The independent vote, in this survey, has Brown ahead by 22% in this demographic. He needs a little bit more to be comfortable. With all the discussion of the impact of Obama in this race the vote by Party is critical to Elizabeth Warren. In this survey Warren is only getting 72% of the Democratic vote, which is the key to the Brown lead here. Brown is getting 21% of Democrats here, while commanding 94% of Republicans. Warren needs to drive her number up with Democrats, which has been a key focus of her campaign. The Obama slippage may be having some impact on her.

The race remains tight, and fluid. You can expect Warren to continue her effort to pry Democratic voters away from Scott Brown. That means a wee bit more negativity coming in the days to come. Great race.

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