A quick video peek at the consumer edition of Windows 8, Microsoft’s newest operating system. The new system looks to me like a huge pivot for Microsoft, as the touch screen/tablet world takes off, and the PC world recedes. A big gamble, and Microsoft does not have a great track record of getting it right the first time.
More tech news, as Apple gets set to unveil a smaller version of the IPad. The competition in this end of the market is going to be brutal, and the players involved all have a lot riding on success. Should be an interesting Christmas season.
Republican Richard Tisei and incumbent Democratic Congressman John Tierney had a very lively debate with Jim Braude acting as moderator on Broadside. Braude deserves a lot of credit as a questioner, as I see him as a probing interviewer who moves the debate along with a minimum of non-answering allowed. This seat has been moved by respected analyst Stu Rothenberg to “lean Republican“, and Tisei may well be the first Republican to represent Massachusetts at the Congressional level in quite some time.
John Tierney first ran for Congress in 1994, and although many may have forgotten he lost that race to incumbent Republican Peter Torkildsen. He ran again in 1996, defeating Torkildsen in a rematch. Torkildsen tried to reclaim the seat in 1998, but Tierney defeated him again, and has held the seat since then. If Tisei emerges victorious he better not get too comfortable, as there will likely be a strong Democratic challenge in two years. From where? That is a story for another post.
President Obama and Mitt Romney exchanged some good humor at the Al Smith dinner in New York. I am sure it will be back to the brickbats today, but it was some pretty good humor by both men at last night’s event.
Two new critical swing state polls have come out that have some good news for President Obama. The Wall Street Journal/NBC/Marist polling operation went to Iowa and Wisconsin, two states that are critical for both candidates, and are especially critical for Romney if he loses Ohio.
Before we get to the numbers let me say that while national polls are important, and can show a trend, I tend to look at the state by state scorecard, as the Electoral College is still how we elect the President. The Electoral College configuration, if Ohio goes to the President, makes the road to victory for Mitt Romney very difficult. Not impossible, just very difficult. The Iowa numbers please.
The President leads Mitt Romney by 51% to 43% in Iowa, (with 4% undecided, and 2% with other candidates) which is largely unchanged from the September WSJ/Marist poll which had the President up by a 50% to 42% margin, with 7% undecided.How about the impact of early voting. 34% of the respondents in this poll have already voted, and the President leads with that group by a 67% to 32% margin. Another 11% are planning on voting early, and the President leads in that group by a 55% to 39% margin. With the voters planning on voting on election day Romney leads by 54% to 39%. Early voting is having a major impact. Barring some major gaffe at the last Presidential debate I am satisfied that Iowa will be in the Obama column in November. Iowa has voted Democratic in five of the last six presidentials, breaking only to vote for George W. Bush in 2004. It had been reliably Republican, voting for Nixon in 1972, Ford in 1976, and Reagan in 1980 and 1984. But that has changed, and Iowa can be shaded a blueish purple for now.
Wisconsin has been a real battleground, and neither party can take it for granted. Governor Scott Walker fought off a recall attempt by Democrats this year, and Wisconsin has been ground zero in the battle fought by organized labor against attempts to roll back collective bargaining rights. Obviously Wisconsin held some promise for Republicans nationally after their local success in 2010. But it has been an uphill fight for Mitt Romney here. Wisconsin has voted Democratic in the last six presidentials, but did vote for Ronald Reagan twice. The Wisconsin numbers please.
President Obama leads Mitt Romney in Wisconsin by 51% to 45% (3% undecided, 1% other). That is about the same as the September numbers, which had the President leading by a 50% to 45% margin, with 4% undecided. Early voting? 15% indicated they have already voted, and Obama leads with that group by 64% to 35%. Election day voters break slightly for Obama, by a 48% to 47%. Early voting patterns again showing some strength in the field for the President. I am not quite ready to declare this one over, but it is leaning heavily Democratic. In the key Senate race Democrat Tammy Baldwin leads former Governor and HHS Secretary Tommy Thompson by a 49% to 45% margin, with 5% undecided. You cannot count Tommy Thompson out there, but Tammy Baldwin has had a small but consistent lead in the polls for a bit now. It would be a major upset if Baldwin were to win, and certainly hurt Republican chances of retaking the Senate.
I have put out the Manzi Electoral map, (October version), and hope you all participate in this as well. I have Barack Obama at 277 electoral votes, with Mitt Romney at 235, and toss-up at 26. Lets look at that map, and where the controversy will be. I have placed both North Carolina and Florida with Romney, although FLA may be back in play. I have made Virginia a toss-up, but giving it to Romney only moves him to 248. I have made both New Hampshire and Colorado toss ups, but I have given Ohio to Barack Obama. I have also given Nevada to Barack Obama, which may be questionable, but take away those six electoral votes and Obama is still sitting at 271, enough to win. I guess that this map shows you just how important it is for Mitt Romney to win Ohio. I have a funny feeling that we may be seeing David Paleologos with some Ohio numbers in the very near future.
Had a great discussion on AM Jive, with Seth Graham, about the rapidly changing face of technology, and specifically about Microsoft and Apple. Microsoft has just opened a “Microsoft Store” in the Rockingham Mall in Salem, NH, which I have not visited, but folks tell me it bears a striking resemblance to the Apple Store. Microsoft is getting into the hardware business, bringing out a new tablet, which will be running the new Windows 8. Here is a review from AOL. What do you think? Is there room for Microsoft in the tablet arena? As an IPad owner I am delighted with the product, but competition is a good thing.
Public Policy has released a new survey showing Elizabeth Warren leading Scott Brown by the largest margin she has yet recorded, leading by a 53% to 44% margin. This is an increase over the PPP polling from last week, which showed Warren leading by a 50% to 44% margin. What is going on here? The numbers please!
Scott Brown’s favorability has declined, with 46% viewing him favorably, and 45% unfavorably. Warren has increased her favorability, with 52% viewing her favorably, and 43% unfavorably. That is some solid movement in Warren’s direction. PPP has also looked at the two real key numbers in this race:
1) Democratic support for Scott Brown. From day one a central goal of the Elizabeth Warren campaign has been to peel back Democratic support for Scott Brown. It has been a key battle front, with Scott Brown fighting back by emphasizing his bipartisan record, and running away from the Republican label. PPP shows Warren having some success in this area, with only 14% of Democrats in this survey planning on voting for Scott Brown. Brown, in some earlier surveys, registered Democratic support in the 24% neighborhood. That is real slippage.
2) Independents. Scott Brown defeated Martha Coakley by a wide margin with independents (over 30% margin, I believe)and needs a wide margin with this group, especially with waning Democratic support. PPP has Brown’s lead with independents down to 15% from the earlier survey margin of 26%, a critical reason for the increasing Warren lead in this survey. If this number is accurate then Brown is in serious trouble. He needs a lead of 25-30%, in my opinion, to win this race.
Warren has opened a 15% lead with women, and this survey actually shows her leading by 2% with men. The gender gap is something that Democrats are trying to drive nationally, and you can see that in Massachusetts it is working. More on that national effort in another post. Another demographic hurdle for Senator Brown, as it is just very difficult to win this race trailing by 15% with women.
PPP also looked at the Presidential race in Massachusetts. As you might expect Barack Obama leads by a wide margin, but not as large as his biggest lead. He leads by a 57% to 39% margin, even drawing 16% of Massachusetts Republicans. I have written earlier about the “Romney drag” on Scott Brown, and I do believe that it is his bad fortune to be up during a Presidential election. It is hurting him, and will bring to the polls a different electorate than the one that elected him in the special election that he won.
PPP interviewed 709 Mass voters, and this survey has a margin of error of 3.7%. I have attached the PPP data below.
It was a pleasure to guest host on Internet radio show “AM Jive” with Seth Graham and George Scione. Had a great time, with lots of tech talk mixed in, as well as political talk. Here is the full show.
Round two of the Presidential debates, town hall style, was held last night. Plenty of anticipation, with Democrats looking for President Obama to rebound from his lackluster performance in the first debate. I think the President gave Democrats some reasons to smile last night. My own observations.
1) Romney does not like to be challenged. I thought that on a couple of occasions he looked like he had CEO complex. He was just going to issue directives, and everyone on the stage was going to comply. When they did not he was very put off. The moderator had to direct him to sit down at one point. That is a negative stylistic point.
2) Even conservatives seemed dissatisfied with the Romney approach on Libya. He was corrected by the moderator on the issue of whether President Obama had characterized the Libyan attack as a “terrorist act”, and seemed to lose a handle on what has been perceived as a politically winning issue for him. A negative substantive point for Romney.
3) Although the President finally answered the Romney charge on energy leases on government property (many leases discontinued on a use it or lose it basis) I think Romney tends to win this argument on the basis of high energy prices. He hits at President on this despite domestic energy production being on the upswing. Here is the chart.
Graph on Domestic Crude Production
CNBC did a fact check on both production, and production on federal lands. Here is what they found:
In 2008, the year before Mr. Obama took office, sales of crude oil produced on federal lands totaled 575 million barrels. The number jumped to 642 million in 2009, and 739 million in 2010. But public lands include “lands” offshore. And following the Deepwater Horizon disaster on April 20, 2010, the Obama administration declared a temporary moratorium on offshore drilling. Largely as a result, sales dropped to 646 million barrels in 2011—the 14 percent drop Mr. Romney cited.
The 2011 figure was still higher than it was when the President took office, however. And analysts have predicted when 2012 is over, the number will be higher still. In fact, a Citigroup report says “production is bouncing back” since the moratorium was lifted, and this year the U.S. “could well recoup the depletion it lost since 2010.”
The Romney claim on leasing is misleading. The Deepwater Horizon disaster was not President Obama’s fault, and output necessarily had to go down after that. But overall U.S. domestic oil production is at its highest level since 1998, and while that is not all attributable to President Obama the Romney charge that the President has been a drag on energy production is flat out wrong. Despite that, from a political perspective, I give Romney an advantage. High energy prices cannot help the President.
4) The $5 trillion question (again). Romney’s response to a request for specifics on his tax plan was to say “of course the numbers work”, because I say they do. He offered the idea of limiting deductions in some way, allowing taxpayers to compile a “bucket” of deductions that would be capped. (He mentioned a cap of $25,000) A quick fact check on that idea shows that it doesn’t even come close to paying the full cost of the proposal. From the Washington Post wonkblog:
When asked what tax breaks he’d get rid of to pay for his rate cuts, Romney suggested that “everybody gets $25,000 of deductions or credits.” That is, rather than get rid of individual deductions or exclusions, he’d have a total cap.
The problem is, a deduction cap at a $25,000 level wouldn’t come close to paying for the $5 trillion in rate cuts. The Third Way calculates that it would only generate $730 billion in revenue. Lowering the cap would raise more money, but it would risk hitting middle-class taxpayers, which Romney has also sworn not to do. So doesn’t resolve the central conundrum of Romney’s plan.
Romney’s answers on this are nothing short of ridiculous, and the President scored him pretty well on the subject. Romney essentially is saying two things.
1) My numbers work because I have balanced budgets in the past, and I am a businessman.
2) My numbers work because President Obama’s numbers are terrible.
Neither explanations work. Edge to President Obama on both style and substance.
Finally, and I think most importantly, the President made the necessary contrasts with Mitt Romney in the areas of immigration and women. We have seen Romney really try to narrow the gaps he faces with these constituencies,(hispanics and women) and he may have been having some success after the first debate. I think President Obama righted that ship politically, and you may see those gaps start to widen again in the President’s favor. That is speculation on my part, and we shall soon see polling data to confirm or rebut. But the President was not going to allow the far right positions taken by Mitt Romney during the Republican primary season to go forgotten. His associating Mitt Romney with the Arizona immigration law stung Romney, who desperately tried to get away from that position. He failed. The equal pay for equal work, and the Planned Parenthood attacks by the President, in my opinion, will resonate with women, and help the President. Romney’s binder full of women comment will make him the object of ridicule, and has shown to be a false claim. Check out the twitter feed hashtag #womenbinder for some of that humor. Big advantage, politically and on substance, to the President.
So overall I think the President takes the edge in this debate, and I do believe that he may move the needle in his favor as a result. Of course that polling data is right around the corner. Anyone know what state David Paleologos is hanging out in lately?
