Elizabeth Warren, in a new MassInc/WBUR survey, is holding a five point lead over Senator Scott Brown. The last MassInc survey had Senator Brown holding a four point lead over the challenger. The new survey seems to be in line with most other surveys showing this race moving in Elizabeth Warren’s direction. The numbers please!
Both candidates are now registering positive favorability ratings that are in the same neighborhood. Warren stands at 49%/39% (favorable/unfavorable) and Brown is at 49%/38%. Despite trailing in this survey Brown is still a popular figure in Massachusetts, although not as popular as when this race started. Mitt Romney is upside down on favorability, coming in at 38%/54%, while Barack Obama is at 58%/35%.
The head to head match-up has Elizabeth Warren leading by a 48% to 43% margin, with 7% undecided and 1% third party. When so called “leaners” are thrown in Warren hits 50% to Brown’s 44%, with 4% undecided. Those are very encouraging numbers for Elizabeth Warren, and have to be somewhat discouraging for Scott Brown.
The cross-tabs give Elizabeth Warren some additional good news, and in my view show the basis for her lead. With women Warren has opened up a wide lead, winning that group by 13%, 52% to 39%. She only trails with men by 2%, so Brown is not making up that wide gap with females. With independents, the key to the Scott Brown victory over Martha Coakley, Brown leads by 52% to 39% (same as the Warren lead with women). That 13% lead is far below what he achieved in the Coakley win, and far below what he will need in this race.
Scott Brown is getting 90% support from Republicans, while Warren is getting 77% support from Democrats. A major focus of the Warren campaign has been to peel back Democratic support for Scott Brown. Brown is at 14% Democratic support in this survey, below the 24% number I have seen in other surveys. The Warren strategy is paying some dividends, and is another key reason for her lead.
This race is not over by any means, but Elizabeth Warren has to like where she sits today.