Suffolk in Ohio

David Paleologos and Suffolk University today released a new poll on the very key swing state of Ohio. Suffolk has this race in a dead heat at 47% each. Suffolk does not have an earlier Ohio poll to compare with, so lets get right to it. The numbers please!

Barack Obama and Mitt Romney register identical favorable ratings 50%/46% for Obama, vs 50%/45% for Romney. On job approval Barack Obama is at 50%/47%. He remains above water on those key polling questions, as does Mitt Romney. On the head to head question the candidates are tied at 47%, with three other candidates each gathering 1%, and 3% undecided.

The Suffolk poll had 20% of the respondents as having voted early. With that group President Obama leads by a 54% to 41% margin. For those who have not yet voted Romney leads Obama by a 48% to 45% margin. A major source of problem for Obama, in my opinion, is the number with independents, where Romney leads in this survey by 20%, 50% to 30%. Suffolk shows the gender gap, with Obama leading with women by 12%, but trailing with men by 12%. The red flag for Obama in all of this is that independent number, which could bring down the house for him if it stands like that on election day.

So in this key state the President has clearly fallen back, and both PPP and Suffolk show that slippage. The Paleologos number, with the President at 47%, puts him in the polling danger zone for incumbents. So while my pal Ted Panos over at 980 WCAP crows about that I am not quite ready to move Ohio over to Romney. My map changes will come on Thursday, and I look forward to the Panos Map, as he has taken me up on the 2012 Electoral Map Challenge. Ohio will need a huge turnout operation by the Obama team in order to win. His ground operation is superior, and he will need every bit of it to pull out Ohio.

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