Suffolk pollster David Paleologos has tonight released his first MA Senate poll, and it shows a substantial lead for Democrat Ed Markey over Republican Gabriel Gomez.From the Suffolk press release:
“Ed Markey begins this race where he left off with his win in the Democratic Primary: exceeding expectations,” said David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center in Boston. “The early perception immediately after the party primaries was that Markey was vulnerable. These findings suggest the opposite of a close race – that Ed Markey begins the sprint to June with a large lead over his Republican opponent who voters are unsure about.”
I had done a posting on a PPP survey that had Markey with a 4 point lead right after the primary election, but Paleologos shows a substantially different race. Lets look at some of the numbers.
Markey shows up with a 53% favorable rating, with 30% unfavorable, substantially better than the PPP poll. Gomez is at 38% favorable, 23% unfavorable, and a large 32% undecided. Markey will be attempting to mold that 32% by defining Gomez with some early money.
In the head to head match-up Markey leads Gomez by a 52% to 35% margin, with 11% undecided. I am a little surprised to see that margin this early, and it certainly is a bad omen for Gomez. Some other interesting numbers that will have some bearing on this race: (or I just found them interesting)
President Obama has a 67% favorable rating in Massachusetts. The next time you hear Ed Markey say he wants to go to the U.S. Senate to promote President Obama’s agenda think of that number.
The survey asked who the respondent would vote for if they were in the booth today. That number of course does not count the leaners that the main question includes. Those numbers show a 27% to 22% lead for Markey, with 45% undecided. If Gomez was looking for a shred of hope maybe that number could give him some, but I would not be filled with optimism (based on these numbers) if I were Gomez.
Another interesting question that may merit additional discussion, is the perception of Markey’s independence. Paleologos asked: “As a U.S. Senator, do you think Ed Markey will be an independent voice or
toe the Democratic party line?” 58% said Markey would toe the party line, 29% said independent voice, and 14% were undecided. As we look at the Sanford win in South Carolina, and the looming win for Ed Markey in Massachusetts it appears that Washington may in fact be a better reflection of the electorate than we would all like to admit. Only 29% believe Ed Markey is an “independent voice”, but he is on the verge of a big win. We move ever closer to a de facto parliamentary system.
The so called “peoples pledge” was an important issue for 71% of the respondents, with 48% rating it as “very important”. Another tool in the Markey arsenal, and one that you will be hearing much more about in the days and weeks ahead.