Seabrook Fire Procures a New Ambulance

The brand new ambulance procured by the Seabrook Fire Department has arrived, and is now “on the street.” This ambulance is financed with revenues from the ambulance service, with no impact to our tax rate. The Seabrook Fire Department, with a highly trained group of EMT’s and medics, provides first rate ambulance service to the people of Seabrook. Congratulations to Chief Edwards and Deputy Perkins.

img_1951

Posted in Seabrook | Tagged , | Leave a comment

Seabrook Tree Lighting 2016

The Seabrook Christmas Tree Lighting occurred Saturday night, and I would like to thank the Seabrook Lions Club, Trinity Church, and our man Stan, who worked very hard to make sure the event was a success, and that the lights went on after we threw the switch. Thanks to the Seabrook Fire Department and the Seabrook Police Department for all of their assistance.

treelighting2016-9

treelighting2016

treelighting2016-2

treelighting2016-7

Posted in Seabrook | Tagged , , | Leave a comment

Congrats to Seabrook Fire Captain Harold Hewlett

Congratulations to retiring Seabrook Fire Captain Harold “Tuggy” Hewlett, who stepped down after 30 plus years of service to the residents of Seabrook. Wishing Tug and his family a very long and happy retirement, and I sincerely hope we can keep him around Seabrook Fire so that we can continue to rely on his wisdom. A great guy, and a true professional who will be sorely missed.

tuggy

tuggy2

Posted in Seabrook | Tagged , | Leave a comment

Review of Ike’s Gamble by Michael Doran

Ike's Gamble: America's Rise to Dominance in the Middle EastIke’s Gamble: America’s Rise to Dominance in the Middle East by Michael Doran
My rating: 4 of 5 stars

A very good book, with a strong point of view that some think still has relevance in todays Middle East. Doran gives us a view not only of the Suez crisis, but of the post WWII erosion of the British position as the dominant Middle Eastern power, and the corresponding rise of Colonel Gamal Abdul Nasser as both an Egyptian strongman, and the leader of a Pan Arab nationalist, anti-coloniast movement about to sweep the Middle East.

I enjoy history, but the Suez crisis of 1956 has been an area that I have not had much exposure to. This book is a great start for someone with no real knowledge of how this crisis came to be, and how it ended. The broad stroke here is that President Eisenhower, along with Secretary of State Dulles, faced with the rise of Nasser, chose to lend support to him, with Ike having an anti-coloniast bent, as well as a desire to freeze the Soviet Union out of any role in the Middle East. Doran gives great “credit” to Nasser, who he shows badly outmaneuvering Ike and Dulles. Nasser, by this account, utilized brilliant statecraft to get Ike’s support to remove the British military from Suez, and that same statecraft to win a huge victory over the British, French and Israeli’s in the 1956 Suez War. This brilliant “success” by Nasser is aided and abetted, in Doran’s telling, by the gullibility of the Americans, who were in essence duped by Nasser, who cleverly hid his true intentions from the Americans, including the “Arabists” populating the State Department and the CIA.

How did Nasser achieve this brilliant “statecraft,” and what were his real goals and objectives? Doran shows us that Nasser’s true goals were achieving political pre-eminence in the Arab world, with his main objective eliminating Arab rivals, and making himself and Egypt the center of the Arab world. Ike, and Dulles, believing that Nasser desired accommodation with the west, floated an “honest broker” approach with Israel, hoping that by pressuring Israel for territorial concessions Nasser would be mollified, and willing to make peace with the Israelis. Doran strongly believes that Nasser was simply using the Arab-Israeli conflict to stoke the Arab street, and whipsaw his Arab rivals. The evidence, as I see it, tends to support Doran’s theory. Nasser also utilized the great power rivalry to further confuse, and deceive the Americans. Doran shows us what he believes Nasser’s real goals were, with a focus on his violent opposition to the American sponsored “Northern Tier” and his eventual success in toppling the Iraqi government. Nasser was successful at not only deceiving the Americans but at doing tremendous damage to the American position in the Middle East over the longer term.

Is there some connection to American policy today? No question that history brings important lessons and we must always learn from them. What those lessons are can be discussed forever, but this book brings an interesting perspective. For those interested in the diplomatic world, and how it works, and how Nasser worked the diplomatic system to achieve his geopolitical goals this book should be on your list. An interesting perspective on Ike, who comes off as duped by Nasser, but as the ultimate pragmatist, shifting gears when he finally caught on. The question of whether Ike ever acknowledged error in 1956 is discussed, with claims from several, including Richard Nixon, that Ike had privately admitted mistake in forcing the British, French, and Israelis to stop the taking of Suez. But Ike never took that step publicly, so we are only left with speculation on that subject.

Doran has produced a fine book, with a certain perspective. Some of the reviews I looked at have been critical of his approach, but even if you agree with some of those criticisms it is worth a read.

View all my reviews

Posted in Books | Tagged , | Leave a comment

One Last Change to Electoral Map

I have made one change to my prior map, switching New Hampshire from red to blue. Some new polling, and the doubts I expressed in my last post, have brought me to the change. I made a technical change to reflect Maine as blue, with Trump taking one electoral vote by winning the Second Congressional. Get out and vote!


Click the map to create your own at 270toWin.com
Posted in Electoral Map | Tagged , | Leave a comment

The 2016 Electoral Map (Ted Panos Edition)

After plenty of trash talking I have gotten Ted Panos of 980 WCAP to send along his electoral map, with a wager of $100 being made (donated to the Megan House.) I look forward to having Ted make that donation to a very worthy cause.

Despite the different results the maps are remarkably similar. Both have Trump winning Ohio, Clinton winning Pennsylvania, Trump winning North Carolina, Clinton winning Michigan, Trump winning New Hampshire, and Clinton winning Colorado. So where do they diverge? Ted has Trump winning Florida (where the RCP average has shown a small but consistent Clinton lead) and I have Clinton winning Nevada (where the RCP average shows a small lead for Trump.)

The Panos map, drawn by a strong Trump supporter, shows how difficult a path the Electoral College road to 270 is for Trump. Ted gets him to a bare 270 by having Trump run the table on FLA, Nevada, New Hampshire, and North Carolina. And even with all of that if Trump fails to pick up that single vote in Maine (which both Ted and I give to him) he would still fall one short of 270. Despite lots of talk about Trump breaking through in the industrial midwest neither map gives Trump Michigan, Wisconsin or Minnesota.

Both Ted and I reserve the right to make changes through Monday. What are my own doubts on the map I produced? North Carolina and New Hampshire were tough calls, and I may yet change them to reflect a Clinton win in one or both. I feel stronger about a Clinton victory in North Carolina, which to my mind would close off any realistic chance of a Trump victory. Finally I still believe that States where the polling margins are paper thin a strong ground game could make a real difference. (A 1% impact via strong GOTV, registration efforts, absentee balloting, etc could be the difference in states like N.H. or North Carolina.) Trump has mocked that concept, and largely outsourced that effort to the RNC. An interesting post-election analysis will determine whether he was correct to do so.

If you would care to join Ted Panos in donating to the Megan House please go to their website and donate. Ted and I both agree on what a great cause it is, and what outstanding work they do each and every day.

If you would like to hear Ted trumpet his map and generally be wrong on most matters, tune into his really big show each and every morning, on 980 WCAP between 6:00 am and 10:00 am. I am especially looking forward to the Wednesday show.

The Manzi Map:


Click the map to create your own at 270toWin.com

The Panos Map:


Click the map to create your own at 270toWin.com
Posted in Electoral Map, WCAP Podcast | Tagged , , | 2 Comments

Chris Herren in Seabrook Today- Katie Duffey Periscope

We had Katie Duffey, Recreation Director for Seabrook, come in to do a Periscope on the Chris Herren event today in Seabrook. Thanks to Katie for bringing the Herren event, and the powerful anti-drug message it presents, to Seabrook. Looking forward to seeing the event, which is today, at 6:00 p.m. at the Seabrook Community Center.

Posted in Seabrook | Tagged , , | Leave a comment

The Seabrook Budget Message for FY 2017

Below is my budget message to the Seabrook Board of Selectmen for FY 2017, which begins on January 1, with Town Meeting in March of 2017.

Budget Message FY2017

I am pleased to present the annual budget to the Board of Selectmen for FY 2017.
As the Board considers this Budget it is important to note that health care pricing for the next cycle is not yet available, and will need to be incorporated into our budgetary numbers when the Health Trust provides us with that figure. Another note is that the numbers for our obligation to the New Hampshire Retirement system have spiked dramatically. Our recent discussion with our independent auditors highlighted the “unfunded liability” of the N.H. retirement system, with a $10 million charge to our balance sheet that recognized our portion of that liability. It is likely that the local assessments will continue to rise in order to correct the problem, which is not good news for our taxpayers.
The budget submitted continues to reflect the policy direction set by the Board of Selectmen. The rate of increase for the overall budget is 1.36% over last years budget. It should be noted that even that small increase, when further analyzed, shows that discretionary increases not mandated contractually account for about one half of one percent of the total increase. Contractual and mandated increases, such as the one highlighted above for retirement benefits, account for just under 1% of the total. The number submitted to the Board is exceedingly lean, and during the course of your review I know that you will hear, from our Department heads, legitimate requests for increases to address needs that are important as we provide vital services to our community. In many cases I not only understand, but agree that such increases would be helpful in providing first rate services. My recommendations are not dismissive of these ideas, but a recognition that keeping the overall tax burden stable is vital, and that we face a major unknown as to the ultimate results of the tax negotiation with our largest taxpayer, NextEra Energy.
The NextEra negotiation, still ongoing, is obviously critical. The 2015 tax payment constituted approximately 72% of the Town side expenditure, and while the ultimate outcome of the negotiation is yet to be determined we must brace ourselves for the potential of a smaller payment. Until such time as we know the outcome of that negotiation it will be difficult for me as Town Manager to recommend to the Board the undertaking of new budgetary spending, even where some justification may be evident. 

Our last independent audit showed our unexpended fund balance as over $9 million, a growth from last years number of about $8 million. We funded a major capital project out of that fund last year, and I realize that many feel that the number may be too high. But the direction given has been to create a fund balance sufficient to buffer the community against the potential downsides of a new agreement with NextEra, and this fund balance is designed to give our community that budgetary flexibility. It would be fair to say that we will be in a better position to fully understand our ability to take on additional capital spending, or address additional Departmental needs, in the FY 2018 budget year.
In this budget there has been a reconfiguration, in a minor way, of how some personnel are deployed within DPW. While there is no request made by me for additional full time personnel I have recommended some additional part time personnel within those budgets. Additionally I have not listed the requested swing set for Harborside Park within the submitted budget, but would recommend a $6,000 appropriation for that equipment, within the Parks Department Budget, should the Board wish to include it.
I would like to take the time to highlight the findings of the independent audit, which gave Seabrook strong marks for implementing management reforms, and for fiscal management. The Board of Selectmen have set strong priorities and policies for management to follow, and those policies are paying dividends from a management perspective, which translates into a much stronger fiscal position for our Town.
We have prepared the draft CIP, which will be submitted to you this week. A preliminary draft warrant, and prospective articles, have been prepared for you to examine as you review the municipal budget. I will also give you a review of requested, and dollar amounts, approved by voters for articles in this past three years. We will be able to provide capital spending by Department, which may be helpful in considering this years requests.
We have managed to submit a budget a bit earlier than we did last year, and we look forward to the Board’s review, comments and prospective changes. I would like to thank my staff for all of the hard work that has gone into preparation of the municipal budget. Our Finance Manager Carrie Fowler has done an outstanding job, not only in preparation of this budget, but in producing the audit results cited earlier. The Deputy Town Manager Kelly O’Connor has worked diligently on our budget, and has prepared the warrant articles for your consideration. My thanks to Procurement Manager Shaylia Marquis, who has worked to prepare our CIP. All of our Department Heads have worked very hard to make this budget process a smooth one, even when they hoped for different results. Seabrook is blessed with top quality professionals serving our citizens.

Posted in Seabrook | Tagged , , | Leave a comment

Welcome to Seabrook Merrimack Valley Federal Credit Union

It was a beautiful day yesterday for the Grand Opening of the Merrimack Valley Federal Credit Union’s newest branch in Seabrook. Our thanks to Peter Matthews and his team for the investment in Seabrook, which has brought a new and modern branch, and a regional banking presence to Seabrook. The Seabrook Board of Selectmen were on hand for the opening. Check out this new branch.

mvcu2

mvcu

Posted in Seabrook | Tagged , | Leave a comment

The New Electoral Map Mid September Edition

With the Presidential race taking some twists and turns since Labor Day I thought it was time to put up a new map, and take a look at the race after Hillary Clinton had arguably her worst stretch since the Conventions. Without question the race has tightened, in national polling, but more importantly in key swing state polling, where some important changes have occurred. I am going to review changes to my last map, and see where that leaves us.

In both of my previous postings I have highlighted, for Donald Trump, the absolute necessity of winning Florida. That is still the case. I just cannot see the path to 270 for him without it. But his difficulty in getting to 270 is shown by this map, where even wins in Florida and Ohio do not bring him victory. Let us look at the changes from my last map, all of which favor Trump.

I have moved a group of states I had previously designated as “toss-up” into the Trump column, including Utah, Georgia, Iowa and most importantly Ohio. I am not entirely convinced on Ohio, but the trend lines, for two weeks, have favored Trump. (Reading numbers should not be impacted by partisan desires, which many forget) I have also assigned the 1 electoral vote in Maine Congressional 2 to Trump, although I believe that the state will remain solidly blue.

With the race tightening it still remains, in my opinion, Clinton’s race to lose. But with that tightening comes some focus on the swing states that now become very important for her. As I look at this map the focus, for me, comes onto New Hampshire, Colorado and Nevada. Those states need to be maintained as Democratic, or the map could skewer in a negative way for Democrats.

I have left North Carolina as undecided, and a loss there would likely finish Trump. Trump really needs to run the table in order to win this thing. The debates loom as potentially more important than ever in a Presidential race. Even with a tough couple of weeks I still have Clinton over 270, with a narrow road to victory for Trump.

I am waiting for the electoral map from Ted Panos over at WCAP, who seems very reluctant to take up the challenge, and show me the error of my ways. Come on in Teddy. Give me the map.


Click the map to create your own at 270toWin.com
Posted in Electoral Map | Tagged | Leave a comment