Bill Manzi.com

Senator Barack Obama continued his winning ways yesterday, producing big wins in the Hawaii caucus as well as the Wisconsin primary. Obama has now won ten consecutive contests and has built a real head of steam heading into the Ohio and Texas primaries. Obama’s victories continue to be by impressive margins, and he also continues to make major inroads into constituencies that have been perceived as strengths of Hillary Clinton. In Wisconsin:

Obama 58%
Clinton 41%

In Hawaii:

Obama 76%
Clinton 24%

The story here is Obama’s rise amongst those groups that have been perceived as solid Clinton supporters. From the Washington Post:

“He’s making a real assault on the Clinton coalition for the first time,” said Mark Mellman, an independent Democratic pollster whose Wisconsin clients date to the 1980s.

In a state in which nearly 9 in 10 Democratic voters are white, Obama won more than 6 in 10 of the votes of white men, while Clinton held only a narrow edge among white women. And he defeated her by double-digit margins among those voters with family incomes less than $50,000 and among those without college degrees, exit polling shows.

Further observations simply do not bode well for Hillary as she fights for her political life.

Obama blunted Clinton’s margins among some of her most reliable voters. Clinton held only a narrow edge among white women in Wisconsin — of the 24 previous contests with Democratic exit polls (not counting Michigan), Clinton beat Obama by double-digit margins 19 times and lost by that wide a margin in only one, Obama’s home state of Illinois.

Obama also beat Clinton among those voters concerned about the nation’s economy, and divided the vote of union members evenly. “If those things hold true, then this could be a significant turning point,” Cieslewicz said.

These gains for Obama follow the movement he showed last week in primaries in Virginia, Maryland and the District among groups that have been firmly in Clinton’s camp throughout the campaign and during the first two months of balloting. But more important, Mellman said, upcoming primaries favor Obama because in both Texas and Ohio, non-Democrats are allowed to vote.

Those voters continue to skew dramatically toward Obama.

In Wisconsin, where nearly 4 in 10 who identified as either independents or Republicans, Obama won each by about 2 to 1. He held a slimmer, seven-percentage-point edge among Democrats.

Can Hillary turn around ten straight losses? Can she survive a split of the Ohio and Texas primaries? Obama is now perched to deliver the knockout blow, in my opinion, by winning one of the two primaries on March 4. If he wins both I would say we do not have to worry about seating the Florida and Michigan delegations at the convention.

Read the Post story here.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/22425001/vp/23245948#23245948

As the Democratic Party approaches a situation where neither candidate for President may have the number of delegates needed to win the nomination the fate of the delegations from Florida and Michigan has taken center stage. With both states being penalized by the national party for holding primaries outside of the allowed time window the issue of what happens to the delegations (who have been disqualified by party rules)now becomes a thorny problem. With Hillary having “won” both primaries her supporters are now agitating for the seating of these state delegations. But Hillary and Obama both promised to abide by the rules in place, and Obama in fact removed his name from the Michigan ballot, and did not campaign in Florida. While the rules were clear the political cost of simply ignoring the voters of two critical states has now become clear. From the Wall Street Journal:

But the alternative of sticking with the status quo and excluding the two states is equally risky. Michigan is a reliably Democratic state with big African-American and union populations. Florida is a toss-up state that the Democrats hope to win this year. If nothing is done now, the resolution of the issue would likely be left to the convention. That’s perhaps the riskiest scenario of all, should New York Sen. Clinton remain neck and neck with Illinois Sen. Barack Obama, or nearly so. Sen. Clinton’s edge among the two states’ 366 convention votes would likely clinch the nomination for her in that case. An ugly fight could break out, leaving scars that could cost the Democrats the presidency.

With the very obvious mishandling of this issue by the national party clear, what are national leaders saying now?

National party leaders for now are trying to avoid the question. “At the end of the day we want to unify the party, including Michigan and Florida, and that will be my job,” Howard Dean, chairman of the Democratic Party, said on CNN this past week. “But right now thats not on my horizon.”

Well maybe it should be on his horizon, as the potential for some real damaging mischief is quite apparent.

Mrs Clinton, meanwhile, laid firm claim to Florida’s delegates after her win in the states primary two weeks ago. She promised voters that “I will do everything I can to make sure not only are Florida’s Democratic delegates are seated, but Florida is in the winning column for the Democrats in 2008.”

Obama has indicated some support for a re-vote (or a caucus) to select delegates and through a spokesperson said:

“Senator Obama is disappointed that Florida will have no role in selecting delegates for the Democratic nominee, but looks forward to competing and winning in Florida during the general election,” said Obama campaign spokesperson Bill Burton.

In the case of a divisive coonvention floor fight over the seating of these delegations Senator Obama would be placed in a tough spot.

“If it gets that far , then Obama has to look Michigan and Florida in the eye and say, ‘I don’t want you in my convention.’ That’s pretty powerful stuff,” Mr. Thurber said.

Maybe Obama wraps this thing up and makes this discussion academic, but if he does not then the lack of foresight and planning by the Democratic National Committee and Chairman Dean will place our party in an untenable position. Obama cannot now be penalized for following the rules laid down by the national party, as this will create a division that may be difficult to recover from in the general election. I guess that the strategy of Chairman Dean is to wait and hope. Once more hope plays a role in the campaign.

Mitt Romney, in a final indignity, today endorsed Senator John McCain. The two had traded some pretty heavy shots during the campaign season, but today the Mittster swallowed hard and did the party unity thing. From the Washington Post:

With McCain standing next to him, Romney said he was urging his 280 delegates to support the Arizona senator at the Republican convention in September.

“This is a man who has served and suffered for his country,” Romney said. “Our Democratic opponents are very skilled at striking heroic poses,” he said, calling McCain “the real thing.”

McCain thanked Romney for the endorsement and praised him for running “a hard, intensive, fine, honorable campaign.”

Fine and honorable were not the adjectives used by McCain during the campaign, but their past differences are to be put aside.

The warm feelings were a huge contrast to the just-ended campaign, during which the two repeatedly called each other liars and worse. Asked about the negative tone and ill will on the campaign trail, both men sought to put the past in the past.

“We all know it was a hard campaign. Primaries are tough,” McCain said.

“Now we move forward. Now we move forward together for the good of our party.”

Romney added: “I still have my views. The senator has his views. But as a party, we come together. I recognize that it’s time for us to put aside our differences and focus on the places where we think we have common ground.”

Good job Mitt! If McCain wins maybe he will make you ambassador to Iceland.

http://www.cbs.com/thunder/swf/rcpHolderCbs-prod.swf

Senator John McCain swept the Republican primaries last evening, accumulating more delegates but still not showing that he has unified the Republican Party behind his candidacy. He continues to struggle with the right wing, and with Mike Huckabees continued presence in the race this anti McCain vote has a home. In Virginia:

McCain 50%
Huckabee 41%
Paul 5%
Romney 4%
Thompson 1%

In Maryland:

McCain 55%
Huckabee 29%
Romney 6%
Paul 6%
Guiliani 1%
Keyes 1%
Thompson 1%

In D.C.

McCain 68%
Huckabee 17%
Paul 8%
Romney 6%
Guiliani 2%

And now the establishment pressure will begin to mount on Mike Huckabee to withdraw. With McCain continuing to struggle amongst a key element of the Republican base party elders will now descend on Huckabee to get him to withdraw. How succesful they will be is another question. Read about McCain’s wins and the continuing conservative holdout at this Washington Post link.

Senator Barack Obama continued his string of February victories. defeating Hillary Clinton in Virginia, Maryland and the District of Columbia. Obama’s wins, which were expected, showed him with some suprising strength amongst some demographic groups where has not fared well in the past. In Virginia Obama received 64% to Clinton’s 35%, in Maryland Obama got 59% to Clinton’s 37%, while in D.C Obama got 75% to Clinton’s 24%. Clinton now must erect a firewall in Texas and Ohio, where losses would likely be fatal to her candidacy. Obama has now seized a lead in delegates as well. I realize that these wins were expected, but Clinton must now step up and show that she can win somewhere. The demographic gains by Obama have to be a real concern for Hillary. Read an analysis of the changing demographics by the Washington Post at this link.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/mmedia/player/wpniplayer_viral.swf?thisObj=fo679751&vid=021208-10v_title

Tad Devine, the chief strategist for the Al Gore campaign in 2000, has penned an op-ed piece for the New York Times on Sunday entitled “Super Delegates Back Off”, in which he essentially calls for these delegates to remain neutral and not try to be the deciding factor in an increasingly close race.

The superdelegates were never intended to be part of the dash from Iowa to Super Tuesday and beyond. They should resist the impulse and pressure to decide the nomination before the voters have had their say.

We have had an interesting back and forth on this issue on this blog, and that issue is now rearing its head everyewhere, with the potential for creating a lot of disaffected Dems if the perception is that this group of “super delegates” tilted the nomination in a direction opposite from that of primary voters.

If the superdelegates determine the party’s nominee before primary and caucus voters have rendered a clear verdict, Democrats risk losing the trust that we are building with voters today. The perception that the votes of ordinary people don’t count as much as those of the political insiders, who get to pick the nominee in some mythical back room, could hurt our party for decades to come.

The close nature of the delegate count has made this an imperative for the party, and I believe Devine’s admonition is one we need to heed as Democrats.

After listening to the voters, the superdelegates can do what the Democratic Party’s rules originally envisioned. They can ratify the results of the primaries and caucuses in all 50 states by moving as a bloc toward the candidate who has proved to be the strongest in the contest that matters — not the inside game of the delegate hunt, but the outside contest of ideas and inspiration, where hope can battle with experience and voters can make the right and best choice for our party and our future.

Anything short of that risks disaster for the Party.

Read the Times op-ed piece here.

NBC News has projected that Barack Obama will win today’s Maine Democratic caucus. With 59 percent reporting Obama leads Clinton 57 to 42 (percent). It continues Obama’s strong small state-red state dominance over Clinton, and sets him up to run the table on Clinton with potential wins in Virginia, Maryland and D.C. this week. The Barack team has to feel pretty good today.