Bill Manzi.com

Scoring some big wins last night John McCain moved closer to the Republican nomination, but he failed to deliver a decisive knockout blow to either of his rivals. McCain claimed California late last night, cementing his hold on the delegate rich larger states. McCain won nine states, picking up 511 delegates, while Romney won seven states, picking up 176 delegates, and Mike Huckabee won 5 states and picked up 147 delegates. The Huckabee factor continues to stymie Romney’s attempts to make this a two person race, and the convenience of Huckabee’s continued presence in this race for McCain was evidenced in West Virginia, where a near certain Romney win was denied to him by a second ballot switch of McCain supporters to Huckabee, giving Huckabee the win. Romney and Huckabee exchanged some harsh words over this incident, but Romney was denied. Read a pretty good analysis of Huckabee’s major presence in this race at the Washington Post. The continued hard right assault on McCain appears to be working to some degree, with those identifying themselves as “conservative” voting against him, even in the states he has won. If McCain is the nominee will he be able to bridge the divide with the Rush Limbaugh/talk radio wing of the Party? Does McCain have the temperment to even try?

Hillary Clinton’s large national lead has evaporated in a new Washington Post-ABC News poll.

Two days before voters in 24 states go to their polling places, 47 percent of likely Democratic voters said they back Clinton and 43 percent said they support Obama, with neither candidate decisively benefiting from the departure of former senator John Edwards (N.C.) from the race.

The survey slices and dices the race in the expected way, looking at some of the fault lines created by this contest.

On the Democratic side, Clinton’s supporters are more enthusiastic than Obama’s, with three in five of hers saying they strongly support her candidacy, compared with roughly half of his who said they back him strongly.

In addition to the experience-versus-change dynamic, gender and racial differences continue to define the Democratic contest. Women support Clinton over Obama by a 15-point margin (53 to 38 percent), while men back Obama by a 10-point margin (50 to 40 percent).

Among white Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents, Clinton is favored 52 percent to 38 percent, while Obama leads among black voters 62 percent to 30 percent. White men are evenly divided between Clinton and Obama, though white women back Clinton by more than 20 percentage points.

As he did in early-state voting, Obama continues to hold an advantage among independents nationally. He also does better among liberals, particularly among those who said they are “very liberal,” than among moderates or conservatives. Clinton still leads among those with family incomes of under $50,000 and those without college degrees. Obama has a better than 2 to 1 advantage among those with post-graduate degrees.

Democrats continue to give Clinton higher marks on key issues. She holds big leads over Obama on health care and the economy and a narrower edge on Iraq. The two run about evenly on immigration.

And we march into Super Tuesday with a real race on our hands. Obama reported raising over 30 million in one month in the last data I saw, which is extraordinary and will keep him competitive.

Read the Washington Post story here.

Senator John McCain’s momentum continues to build, with a new Washington Post-ABC News poll showing him with a commanding lead nationally amongst Republican voters.

McCain leads former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney 48 percent to 24 percent among probable GOP voters as he continues to rapidly consolidate support, particularly among moderates and liberals. Former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee runs third in the new poll with 16 percent, and Rep. Ron Paul (Tex.) is fourth at 7 percent.

The poll shows McCain running neck and neck with either Obama or Clinton, while both prospective Democratic nominees lead Mitt Romney by double digits.

McCain outperforms Romney in the general-election tests because he picks up significantly more support among independents and political moderates. These groups have been crucial to the senator in early-state caucuses and primaries, and his biggest gains in this poll came among them.

Among GOP voters who are politically moderate and liberal, McCain has a whopping 51-point advantage over Romney in the new poll, while conservatives divide 37 percent for McCain, 29 percent for Romney and 19 percent for Huckabee. Moreover, most of McCain’s improvement since mid-January is among moderates and liberals; he is up 28 percentage points in this group, while he and Romney have both climbed 12 points among conservatives.

In what I consider to be a real problem for Romney, McCain is now seen as best representing “core Republican values”, a test that he leads Romney in by double digits. Romney’s hopes of stopping McCain by assaulting him on the issue of being a Republican “heretic” would appear to be made much harder by that polling data. The Huckabee win in Iowa, which derailed the Romney train while McCain was at his weakest, may be the pivot point in this race for the Republican nomination. Huckabee’s continued presence in the race can only hurt Mitt. Is there a McCain-Huckabee alliance?

Read the Post story here.

Senator John Mccain and Mitt Romney engaged in a real barn-burner of a debate, with both engaging in charge and counter-charge over who is the real conservative and dealing with some real specifics. McCain charged Romney with raising taxes disguised as fees, tweaked him over the Herald endorsement, and essentially ridiculed his economic record as governor of Massachusetts. Romney highlighted some of the critical differences McCain has had with the Republican Party, including McCain-Finegold, McCain -Lieberman, McCain-Kennedy, and highlighted the McCain endorsement by the New York Times. Some pretty good stuff as far as debates go.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/mmedia/player/wpniplayer_viral.swf?thisObj=fo102752&vid=013008-12v_title

Reuters is reporting that John Edwards will drop out of the Democratic Presidential race in a speech in New Orleans today at 1:00. There is no word of a potential endorsement, but my money is on Obama receiving that ultimately. Read the Globe story here.

NBC News is reporting that Rudy Guiliani, the former Republican frontrunner, will drop out of the Republican Presidential race and endorse John McCain in California on Wednesday. It is a nice pickup for McCain, and reflects the real disdain the other Republican candidates appear to have for Mitt Romney. Read the NBC News story here.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/22425001/vp/22905417#22905417