With the Democratic convention in Denver lets look at battleground state Colorado. Colorado went for George W. Bush over John Kerry by 52-47, and has voted Republican in every Presidential election since 1968, excepting 1992 when they voted for Clinton. It should be reliably Republican, but something has been happening in Colorado. They have a Democratic Governor, and the dems have taken over both houses in the state legislature. Republicans had controlled this legislature for 28 years.
The Wall Street Journal ran an article on Monday talking about some of the red states being targeted by Obama, and they highlighted Colorado. What is producing some of the change? No question that some pretty well financed democratic political operations have made a difference. But the Journal pointed to something else as well. From the Wall Street Journal:
In the early 1990s,Republicans pushed for-and Colorado voters approved-the nations strictest tax and spending cap, with a “Taxpayer Bill of Rights” that limited the growth of government. Over the past several years voters have begun to see the effects on Colorado’s infrastructure:potholes and gridlock on major arteries:leaky school roofs in elemantary school classrooms;college science labs with such outdated ventilation that it is unsafe to run some experiments.
Those kinds of problems are moving voters such as Bill Kaufman, a lawyer in Loveland, about an hour north of Denver, who has worked in Republican politics for 32 years. He put in eight years as a Republican state legislator. He served three terms as the Republican county chairman. This year he plans to vote for Sen. Obama.
“I am a Goldwater Republican, but I’ll tell you right now , I am a furious Republican. Absolutely furious,” Mr. Kaufman said. He first began to move towards the Democrats in 2006, when the party’s state leaders were pushing for a “time-out”on the tax and spending cap. This year, he’s backing several Democratic candidates. “I am not going to stand by”, Mr. Kaufman said, “and watch our infrastructure go to waste and our public education system destroyed for some ideological reason.”
Some positive anectodal stories for Obama, and the chance to score a traditionally Republican state and its 9 electoral votes. But there is some positive news for John McCain here as well. The latest numbers from Rasmussen show that McCain has inched into a statistically insignificant lead. But the data show a real movement towards McCain, as Obama has had a lead as big as 7 points here. That lead, according to Rasmussen, is erased. From Rasmussen:
The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Colorado voters shows John McCain attracting 47% of the vote while Barack Obama earns 45%. When “leaners” are included, it’s McCain by a single percentage point, 49% to 48%.
While McCain’s advantage is statistically insignificant, it is the first time he has been ahead in Colorado in seven monthly polls conducted by Rasmussen Reports this year. It’s also the first time that McCain has reached the 47% level of support. Only once before this month had Obama’s support fallen below 46%. A month ago, Obama led by seven points overall but by just three points when leaners were included. Two months ago, the race was a toss-up.
I have assigned Colorado in my electoral map to John McCain. I may revise that, but for today I think Colorado is to close to call.
Pick: Tossup
Bill Manzi.com 