Another Obama hit on McCain, this time on his failure to call Ralph Reed during congressional hearings he chaired. Maybe a good line of attack if sustained. If not and this is a drive by then Obama again scores some points, but it is more scattered in his subject approach, and less effective because of it. Part of the tit for tat with McCain that is begining to escalate.
McCain highlights Obama’s purported link to Tony Rezko in Chicago. Both teams starting to go low, with Obama hitting McCain over his purported Ralph Reed connection. Issues are being pushed to the back burner, with 30 second assaults now moving to the front burner.
Obama hits back, and probably scores some points, but a constant recurring line of attack against McCain has not been developed. In order to be effective the theme must be driven home. Obama seems to move from subject to subject, almost based on McCains miscues rather than from an overriding strategy of trying to do to McCain what McCain is doing to him. No better than a C for effectiveness.
The latest Wall Street Journal/NBC poll has John McCain closing to within three points of Barack Obama, with a consistent message, continual themed attacks, and a news focus on foreign affairs all likely contributing to some movement towards McCain.
McCain has built a reputation as a free talking candidate, as likely as not to veer off message and drive his political staff crazy. But the addition of the highly thought of Steve Schmidt as his top campaign strategist has changed all that. From the Wall Street Journal:
The McCain campaign has been limiting the candidate’s exposure to the national press, cutting back formal news conferences and eliminating the more open-ended conversations on his campaign bus that represented his signature style. The goal: Keep Sen. McCain, who is known for riffing on any topic, from moving off the agreed-upon message of the day.
McCain has been focused on the campaign message, and his team has launched a pretty effective line of attack on Obama. The attack has been consistent and constant.
It unleashed a barrage of attack ads painting Sen. Obama as a celebrity who is not ready to lead, capitalizing on voter doubts about his ability to be commander in chief. The first ad, released three weeks ago, compared the Democrat to lightweight stars Britney Spears and Paris Hilton. That prompted a storm of news media attention and even a response video from Ms. Hilton. The result: For the first time in a long time, Sen. McCain was controlling the conversation.
Many Dems fear a replay of the same old Republican playbook, which has them defining the Democrat as tax and spend, weak on national security, and not in synch with “mainstream values”. Obama is being defined, and I think he needs to hit back before it is to late.
The WSJ poll also found that Obama still has not closed the deal with Hillary supporters, and that fact is starting to hurt his candidacy.
Only half of those who voted for Sen. Clinton in the primaries say they are now supporting Sen. Obama. One in five is supporting Sen. McCain. The Republican has reached out to Clinton supporters by offering steady praise for the former first lady and hinting that he’d be open to a running mate who supports abortion rights.
For those who think Clinton has no leverage those numbers should sober them up quickly. Maybe the Clinton block can play the role of Ralph Nader this year. In any case Obama certainly needs to lock down that vote, and lock it down quickly. The impact they have will potentially tilt a battleground state or two, and could seal Obama’s fate.
These disaffected Democrats could make a difference in big states where Sen. Clinton did well, including Ohio and Pennsylvania. Sen. McCain is reaching out to them with a coalition called “Citizens for McCain” led by Sen. Joe Lieberman, who describes himself as an independent Democrat. Sen. McCain himself tries to encourage Democrats by talking about his bipartisan successes.
McCain has also moved up slowly in terms of favorability.
Sen. McCain appears to be steadily gaining some traction with the electorate. The portion of people who view him positively has inched up from 39% in June to 42% in July to 45% in August.
Going into the conventions McCain has obviously righted the campaign ship, and in my view seems to have Obama playing a little bit of defense. We have a long way to go, but McCain is looking like a formidable candidate (again). A new McCain attack that hits the recurring campaign themes is posted below. The full WSJ/NBC poll is attached as a PDF.
In its continuing profile of potential VP selections the New York Times has featured Kansas Governor Kathleen Sebelius. She is from a family steeped in politics, and married into a family with a strong (Republican) tradition. She is an interesting potential candidate, winning handily in Republican Kansas, and then governing in a real bi-partisan fashion. From the Times:
The daughter of a former Democratic governor and congressman, she married the son of a six-term Republican congressman. Running for re-election in 2006, she upended expectations by announcing that her running mate would be a former Kansas Republican chairman. In a state where registered Republicans outnumber Democrats by about 330,000, she then won with 58 percent of the vote, becoming the first Kansas Democrat in 24 years to gain re-election to the governorship.
She has governed from the center, and in cooperation with moderate Republicans in the Kansas legislature.
She and moderate Republicans in the overwhelmingly Republican Legislature have worked together under pressure from the courts to resolve a school financing crisis. She has also earned points as fiscally responsible: Facing a budget shortfall at the onset of her first term, she imposed broad efficiency measures that, by her office’s measure, saved $1 billion. Among other steps, she called for what was apparently the first accounting of the number of cars in the state fleet, then sold hundreds of them.
And since we have been talking about energy on this blog I can’t resist adding this from her story in the Times:
She has vetoed two coal-fired power plants in southwestern Kansas, making her a darling of environmentalists. (She has pledged to draw 10 percent of the state’s energy from alternative sources, particularly wind, by 2010.)
Sebelius has much working against her selection, including the fact that she would not be able to deliver her state for Obama, and her selection could infuriate many Hillary Clinton supporters. Regardless of her fortunes in the VEEP selection process she is someone to watch for a prominent position in a potential Obama cabinet if he passes her over for V.P.
“Methuen Walks” brochure funded by
Massachusetts Historical Commission Grant
August 20, 2008 (Methuen, MA) … Methuen residents and visitors can combine a leisurely stroll through downtown Methuen with a dose of fascinating history by picking up the City’s new walking tour brochure. “Methuen Walks” includes two tours – a Mill Walk that focuses on Methuen’s industrial history, and a Millionaire’s Walk that follows the footsteps of the City’s three famous millionaires. The brochure was designed to appeal to a broad range of participants, from avid history and architecture fans to students learning about their city for the first time. Mayor William M. Manzi, III thanked the Massachusetts Historical Commission for the grant and encouraged citizens to take the tours. “Brochures are free and can be picked up at City Hall, the Nevins Memorial Library, and the Methuen Historical Society,” Manzi added. They are also available through local schools and businesses.
The brochure was produced with a matching grant from the Massachusetts Historical Commission (MHC). The grant was awarded under the Massachusetts Historical Commission’s Survey and Planning Program, whose goal is to identify all the significant cultural resources in the Commonwealth –buildings, structures, sites, and landscapes – and plan for their protection. The walking tour brochure was financed in part with federal funds from the National Park Service, U.S. Department of the Interior, through the Massachusetts Historical Commission, Secretary of the Commonwealth William Francis Galvin, Chairman.
A new documentary dealing with the massive debt crisis facing our nation is about to open. The trailer is below. It is my belief that much of our economic trouble can be traced back to the insane fiscal and trade policies that have left us a debtor nation, in hock to the rest of the world and sliding backwards every day. Today’s Globe had an editorial noting the film debut and warning of the dangers that are inherent in the proposals to just keep addind to that debt.
Contributions to the debt are bipartisan as well: John McCain’s proposals – $100 billion in additional tax cuts for corporations, another $65 billion for individuals, and a continuation of the $11 billion-a month war in Iraq – will flood America with red ink. But Barack Obama is doing his part, with $80 billion in tax cuts for working families, an immediate $50 billion stimulus package, and a $65 billion healthcare expansion.
Former Nixon cabinet member Pete Peterson is bankrolling the movie and distribution, and deserves thanks for taking an issue that no one seems to want to talk about and shedding a big light on it. If its worth spending then it is worth paying for. Read the Globe editorial here.
The washington Post and Chris Cilizza have opened a new interactive map that allows us our chance to pick the presidential winner state by state, trying to see who will hit 270 in the electoral college. They have even attached a contest to this exercise. My first pass at the map is here, and I have Obama winning the electoral college with 297 votes. It really is a shaky foundation, as I mapped Obama victories in Virginia, (Bush win in 2004), Ohio (Bush win in 2004), Iowa (Bush win in 2004). Under my scenario McCain wins in Virginia and Ohio spell doom for Obama. Great exercise, and something that brings home how close this thing is likely to be. Where have I gone wrong? Have I gone wrong? Tim Kaine, Governor of Virginia, my pick in the VEEP Sweeps, is looking real good under this scenario. I will revise the map frequently, and post the new iterations as they come.
John McCain has a new music video put out by country singer John Rich. Does Obama have any shot at holding his own with the country music afficionados? Not likely. Let me hear a few yee-haws out thar!
And while we listen to the nonsense that alternatives cannot work because of cost, and other such nonsense here comes the state of Colorado. They have had an interesting experience in Colorado. From the Washington Post:
When Colorado voters were deciding whether to require that 10 percent of the state’s electricity come from renewable fuels, the state’s largest utility fought the proposal, warning that any shift from coal and natural gas would be costly, uncertain and unwise.
Then a funny thing happened. The ballot initiative passed, and Xcel Energy met the requirement eight years ahead of schedule. And at the government’s urging, its executives quickly agreed to double the target, to 20 percent.
Colorado’s experience may presage the national battle to come. As we saw Republicans fighting to save oil company tax credits in the Speaker Pelosi post they are fighting that battle in Colarado as well.
One advocate calls Colorado “ground zero” for the looming battle over energy.
Despite a continuing boom, oil and gas companies here are on the defensive. They are spending heavily as they try to prevent the repeal of as much as $300 million in annual tax breaks that would be shifted to investment in renewables and other projects.
The Colorado utility that had so vociferously opposed the imposition of a renewable mandate by the voters came around pretty quickly. Why?
Once Xcel executives began to come to terms with the new rules, they discovered that federal tax credits made wind power affordable, especially in relation to rising natural gas prices. The cost of wind power is relatively constant and provides a hedge against future emissions regulation, such as the cap-and-trade approach favored by presidential candidates Barack Obama (D) and John McCain (R).
“It was good for the system,” Xcel’s Prager said, referring to the utility’s mix of energy sources, “and it was good for the customer.”
By the end of 2007, Xcel had met Amendment 37’s goal and endorsed Ritter’s request to double it to 20 percent by 2020. That measure passed the Colorado legislature easily: With the utility on board and public sentiment clear, the bill collected 50 sponsors in the 65-member House.
One of the outgrowths is the filed plan by Xcel to shutter two coal fired plants.
Meanwhile, Xcel’s latest plan, filed with the Colorado Public Utilities Commission, calls for retiring two of its aging coal-fired power generators.
“We’ve reached this critical point where we’re seeing the deployment of these technologies accelerate,” said John Nielsen, an energy analyst with the nonprofit environmental group Western Resource Advocates. “There was slow progress over the last decade, and you’re now seeing this tipping point.”
In addition to greener energy Colorado is reaping the economic benefits of being in the forefront of the renewable energy industry.
Among the signs is the arrival of Vestas, a Danish wind turbine company, which announced Friday the construction of two more manufacturing plants and 1,350 new jobs, bringing the company’s total in Colorado to 2,450. ConocoPhillips announced this year that it will locate its alternative-fuels research operation in the state. The Colorado-based National Renewable Energy Laboratory is adding 100 jobs.
Aggressive movement towards alternatives is necessary, and the Colorado experience is showing that the shrill attacks against renewables are just so much excess wind. Read the Washington Post article here.
Bill Manzi.com 