Robert E. Lee: A Life” is a remarkable biography by the historian and author Allen Guelzo. In this book, Guelzo provides a comprehensive and balanced portrait of one of the most famous and controversial figures in American history.
The book traces Lee’s life from his childhood in Virginia to his rise as a military commander during the American Civil War and his later years as a college president. Guelzo presents Lee as a complex figure, but does not at all run away from the inherent contradictions in Lee’s actions, and in Lee’s failures, as a human being and as a general.
Throughout the book, Guelzo provides a vivid and detailed account of the major events in Lee’s life, including his experiences in the Mexican-American War, his tenure as superintendent of West Point, and his role as commander of the Confederate Army of Northern Virginia. Lee was indeed the superintendent of West Point, and served with distinction in the U.S. Army in the Mexican campaign. Lee was an Army engineer who ended up becoming a renowned military strategist.
The decision of Lee to abandon the U.S. Army and go over to the rebellion is shown to be a pained one, an area I thought was covered excellently by the book. Lee managed, by expressing contradictory views on the key issues involved, to be thought of less harshly than many other Confederate leaders. Slavery? Lee expressed repugnance, and gave the view that slavery was not a sufficient reason for secession. But he was a slave owner, and became a leader of the rebellion. Lee’s tortured dance on the loyalty issue included declining Lincoln’s offer of command of the Union Army. The author offers some interesting speculation on Lee’s motivation being influenced by the fear of losing the Lee estate at Arlington, which likely would have been seized by the State of Virginia if Lee remained loyal to the Union. As it turned out Union forces immediately seized the estate upon Lee’s desertion. The federal government has held it since then, and it is now the national military cemetery.
His reputation as a brilliant field commander was earned, as he had some great success early in the war. Some of that success might be attributable, in part, to the less than stellar leadership of the Union generals lined up against him, but Lee absolutely deserves credit for devising the strategies that confounded and defeated the much more formidable Union forces at the beginning of the war. Although ultimately unsuccessful Lee’s thought that the disparity in resources would necessitate a Confederate northern incursion with the goal of melting northern political support for the war was really the only hope for the Confederacy. He wanted to hold on until the Union tired of the fight. Even Lee’s early success came at a heavy cost, as the Confederacy was not in a position to win battles that came with heavy losses in manpower and supply. Lee shall be forever linked in history to General Ulysses Grant, the Union General who recognized and acted on the wide disparity in manpower and resources that favored the Union. Once Grant was brought to the Eastern theatre Lee’s time was limited. Grant was simply uncontainable by the Confederate forces that Lee had available, and Grant was ruthless in his pursuit. After the war Lee may have come out ahead in terms of perceptions of military skill, but over the course of time Grant has been recognized for his great military skills as a General, and the comparisons to Lee have been much more favorable to Grant.
After the war Lee was pardoned for his treason by President Andrew Johnson, and is on record as being opposed to the glorification of Confederate generals, including being against statutes and monuments being erected in their honor.
One of the strengths of the book is it’s balanced and nuanced perspective on Lee’s character and actions. The author acknowledges Lee’s admirable qualities, including his leadership skills and his devotion to his troops, while also recognizing his flaws, most notably his support for slavery, and his treason. Overall, “Robert E. Lee: A Life” is a fascinating and insightful biography that sheds new light on one of the most iconic figures in American history. Guelzo’s extensive research and engaging writing style make this book a must-read for anyone interested in the Civil War era and the complex figures who shaped it.
“Grant” by Ron Chernow is a thoroughly researched and insightful biography of Ulysses S. Grant, one of the true giants of American history. The book does not shy away from some of the Grant failures, including his many unsuccessful attempts to find his way in business. Grant’s contribution to history was not in business, but rather as a dynamic military man whose leadership likely saved the Union. It took a bit of time, but when Lincoln finally turned to Grant the war with the Confederacy was not going well, and Grant turned that around. One of the book’s strengths is its ability to dispel many of the myths and misconceptions that have surrounded Grant for decades. Chernow portrays him as a complex and multifaceted figure, one who was both a brilliant military strategist and a flawed individual with a complicated personal life. Chernow does not shy away from the issue of Grant’s drinking, which comes up repeatedly. Without question Grant, despite many pledges, drank to excess on occasion. What is clear, at least to me, is that his drinking did not impair him or his military decision making at key moments. Lincoln reportedly said that if he knew what brand of whiskey Grant drank he would send a barrel of it to his other Generals. Lincoln had seen the results before Grant assumed command, and after his assumption of command of the Union armies. Lincoln preferred the results that Grant brought. Chernow’s book is not a detailed military history, but there is, by necessity, a good look at Grant the military man. After the Civil War was over the defeated Confederacy simply managed to do a better job of creating legends around their military leaders. (See Robert E. Lee and Stonewall Jackson amongst many others) Lee, for many years, has received absolute veneration as a military genius. Grant, despite the record, for many years simply did not receive the credit he was due for his military prowess. This book is fair, but helps to correct that record. Grant started his Civil War career in the Western Theatre, and while the Army of the Potomac was performing dismally Grant was on the attack, winning key Union victories and catching the eye of President Lincoln. Grant absolutely had a resource advantage, and he pressed that advantage hard, putting relentless pressure on the Confederate armies he found in front of him. He was criticized for some of the high casualty counts in the battles he was involved in, but victory, even in the face of initial setbacks, always seemed to follow. (See Battle of Shiloh) Grant’s belief was that offensive operations were the key to victory. He never wavered from that view, even when under heavy criticism. When Lincoln made him the overall commander of Union forces he used the same tactics on Lee, driving forward, and chasing Lee’s Army across the map. Yes, he had greater resources than Lee, but so did General McClellan, who continually failed to win victories against Lee. Grant, in my view, simply out-generaled Robert Lee. Grant’s essential decency was shown in his relationship with Lincoln. Grant was a major figure before the Union victory, and Lincoln had to worry that Grant might be persuaded to run against him for the Presidency. But Lincoln soon realized that Grant had a loyalty to him, and that loyalty, and agreement on the Lincoln goals and objectives, precluded Grant from doing anything but supporting his President. Grant’s record on race was in sync with Lincoln, and his record in this area was strong. Grant rejected a prisoner exchange with the Confederacy where black union soldiers, under Confederate terms, would not be released if they had been slaves. In this and in his post-war record Grant, like Lincoln, sought to heal the wounds of the bitter divide. Grant’s record as President was a revelation to me. Some very interesting, and new to me, material on Grant. Grant’s trusting personality, so fatal to his business career, hurt him in the Presidency as well. But his record, once again, was not as abysmal as I had believed before the book. Chernow’s prose is lively and engaging, and he has a talent for bringing Grant’s contemporaries, like William Tecumseh Sherman, to life, and offers a detailed look at the social and political climate of the times. At over 1,000 pages, “Grant” is a substantial read, but Chernow’s storytelling skills keep the reader engaged throughout. He balances historical detail with compelling narrative, and the result is a biography that brings us a true giant of the United States. Grant, along with President Lincoln, saved the Union, and brought the Confederacy, and slavery with it, crashing down. Overall, “Grant” is a masterful work of historical biography, one that sheds new light on a complicated and often misunderstood figure in American history. Whether you are a fan of Civil War history or simply enjoy well-written biographies, this book is well worth your time.
A new biography of J. Edgar Hoover has arrived, and in light of my rather sparse understanding of Hoover as well as the history of the FBI I thought it would be a good read, and I was right.
Beverly Gage has given us a thoughtful biography of a giant of American law enforcement. The book is over 700 pages long, but Hoover’s tenure was so long, and his impacts so large, that a multi-volume work could have easily been done. Professor Gage, even with the enormous amount of material to cover, does so in a way that gives us a good view of Hoover’s rise to the pinnacle of power and authority in federal law enforcement. Hoover’s reputation is now in tatters and the book does not shy away from criticism of the subject. In so doing Professor Gage still tries to strike a balance, and I believe that she has found that balance correctly.
John Edgar Hoover started out as a Justice Department functionary that took over and built the then called Bureau of Investigation. Before taking over as Director Hoover got his start as the head of what was called the “radical division” of the Bureau, charged with tracking, arresting and deporting “subversives.” In many ways Hoover never really gave up that function, as he waged a life long battle against any and all groups deemed “subversive.” Hoover’s rise was greatly aided by his proficiency in utilizing the index card system he learned, and developed himself, while working for the Library of Congress. His ability to track information, and people, through this system, made him a superstar.
Hoover has been vilified for much during his nearly half a century tenure as the Director of the FBI. Much of the vilification can be justified, but this book shows us that much of what Hoover did was not only sanctioned, but actively pushed for, by Presidents of the United States. Hoover became adroit at politics, making himself indispensable to Presidents, providing what was considered vital intelligence to them. FDR, with WWII to deal with, used Hoover and the FBI to combat domestic subversion, real and imagined. Hoover was resistant to standard police work until a crime wave of bank robberies by criminals that captured much publicity forced his hand, John Dillinger, Pretty Boy Floyd, Machine Gun Kelly, and others were simply too much for local law enforcement. They traveled across state lines and essentially forced Hoover to take on a role that he had not sought for the FBI. He did take it on successfully and used that effort to further build support and resources for the FBI. His astute political handling of the publicity surrounding this battle created an image of the FBI as serious crime fighters.
The book, as mentioned, covers a lot of ground, and every reader may take a different piece of the story as the most significant. Hoover’s ability to balance different political cross-currents, especially with the many Presidents he served, was fascinating to me. He had some real trouble with Harry Truman, and was really at loggerheads with his boss Robert Kennedy during the Kennedy Administration, but even during those difficult periods Hoover managed to keep his political balance. His political skills were substantial.
Hoover, in the law enforcement area, recognized early that setting the FBI up as a competitor to local law enforcement would bring nothing but problems for him, setting up a potentially potent political roadblock to future growth and funding for the Bureau. Hoover instead moved to make the FBI a resource for local law enforcement, providing services that he built from scratch, including a nationwide fingerprint database as well as creating the FBI crime lab. Hoover’s achievements in these areas were truly monumental, deserving of the credit that Professor Gage gives to him.
Hoover’s lifelong commitment to combatting communism is a big part of the book. This obsession brought Hoover, especially in later years, to make some decisions that were frankly abhorrent. This area of the book is indeed fascinating, showing us Hoover, despite his strong anti-communist bent, keeping Joe McCarthy at arms length. His willingness to work with the House Un-American Activities Committee was done on his terms. He was very adept at avoiding getting the FBI involved directly in matters that he was not comfortable with, even if he hovered in the background.
Hoover’s closest friendships with Presidents would likely be Lyndon Johnson and Richard Nixon. Hoover went way back with Nixon, working with him when he was a Congressman serving on HUAC. They became very close over the years, and Hoover would play a significant, if indirect role, in some of the decisions Nixon made as President that led to his downfall. By the time Nixon became President, in 1969, Hoover was discerning that what had previously been done by the FBI by way of illegal activities (illegal entries, illegal wiretapping and a host of other activities) could no longer be performed without a high risk of detection and legal jeopardy. When young Nixon staffer Tom Huston came up with an inter-agency plan for an intelligence war on the left Hoover, participating in the task force, simply placed roadblock after roadblock in the way. Nixon, understanding that Hoover’s opposition was politically fatal, withdrew the proposal. With Hoover’s refusal to be of assistance after the leak of the Pentagon Papers Nixon decided to act on his own, creating the “Plumbers Unit” working directly from the White House. That decision, driven by Hoover’s unwillingness to engage in the type of activities demanded by Nixon, did indeed eventually bring Nixon down. Hoover’s friendship with LBJ is covered, and for me it showed how LBJ both understood people, and was able to manipulate even those with political skills. When LBJ had Hoover and Tom Dewey issuing a report on racial unrest many were perplexed when the conservative Hoover, through the report, cited “underlying economic and social conditions” as one of the root causes.
“Against all odds, Johnson ‘maneuvered his anticommunist FBI director into issuing a report that endorsed the war on poverty[and] helped blunt the Goldwater challenge,’ one historian noted. Though Hoover had spent forty years insisting that the FBI could not be swayed by political concerns, he turned out to be as susceptible as anyone to Johnson’s masterful blend of praise, coercion, and power.”
Gage, Beverly: “G-Man J. Edgar Hoover and the Making of the American Century.” Pg 600-601
Hoover’s massive infiltration operations against many organizations are highlighted, and his relentless attacks on Martin Luther King are parts of his record that have helped to bring Hoover’s legacy to the low point it is at today. Professor Gage does not give Hoover a pass in these areas. In todays world Hoover would not likely be as much of a darling of the right as he was in his day. His FBI expanded federal power in law enforcement, which would not likely be a popular position today with many conservatives.
Hoover had ambitions that included the FBI acting as the foreign espionage service for the U.S. In fact Hoover had started in this field in Latin America, and politically opposed the creation of the CIA. While not covered greatly it was one of the few bureaucratic battles that Hoover lost. (Harry Truman saw it differently)
Professor Gage has written what many are calling the definitive biography of the most important American law enforcement figure of the 20th century. I would have to agree. This book is highly recommended.
I have attached the reports presented to the Board of Selectmen at the March 20, 2023 Board meeting. These reports, presented annually, cover the output, and the finances, of the Seabrook Water System as well as the Sewer System.
The Seabrook financial presentation was made to the Board of Selectmen in February of 2022. This report is given to the Board annually so that the prior year can be examined, and we can identify future issues that are facing the community in the finance area. Below I have attached the presentation slides I utilized to make the presentation to the Board, as well as the report, the executive summary, and the video of the presentation.
The Seabrook Board of Selectmen have finalized the 2023 Town Warrant, which is posted below. Town Meeting (election day) is March 14. Please get out and vote. I have posted below a tax impact analysis of the warrant as well.
For folks that are long time music fans it has been a pretty difficult few months, with so many true giants of music passing away. The latest is David Crosby, the enfant terrible of the music industry. Crosby was one of the founding members of The Byrds, who produced some groundbreaking music as the rock music scene was just beginning to form. Crosby was fired by Roger McGuinn from that group, but not before making some major contributions to the group.
Crosby did not miss a beat, getting acquainted with Steve Stills of Buffalo Springfield, and eventually enticing Graham Nash from the Hollies to form Crosby, Stills, and Nash. Their first album as a group is simply one of the greatest of any era, with harmonies that were beautiful. When they added Neil Young to that lineup CSNY really was a supergroup, and they made some groundbreaking music with that lineup as well.
Crosby had some really difficult patches. In hearing Crosby respond to a question about some difficulties with bandmates in years past he simply said “I was an asshole back then.” But a very talented asshole indeed.
Crosby, until the very end, just wanted to make music. When he could not persuade former bandmates to reunite (they were all angry with him) he went out and made some truly impressive albums with his son, and some other great collaborators. It was truly some great work that you should check out if you are a fan.
Croz had an active twitter account which got him into trouble every now and then, but for me it was very entertaining. Croz was unfiltered to the very end.
Despite his reputation Croz got along with, and truly respected, so many other musicians. He was a part of the west coast music scene that produced new and cutting edge music. He loved Jerry Garcia, and spoke of him often in adoring terms. Same for Grace Slick, and so many others. That feeling of love and admiration was reciprocated. His first solo album, “If I Could Only Remember My Name” has become recognized as a terrific piece of work. The massive cast of supporting players included Jorma and Jack, Grace Slick, David Freiburg and Paul Katner from the Airplane, Jerry Garcia, Mickey Hart, Phil Lesh, and Bill Kreutzmann from the Grateful Dead, and of course Graham Nash and Neil Young. West coast rock royalty. I was very happy to see Stills, Nash, and even Young put out kind and generous statements about Crosby upon his passing. RIP David Crosby!
One of the most important books of 2022, and most certainly one of the best. Author Chris Miller has produced a history of the semiconductor industry that brings us to the present, and helps to frame some of the most critical national security issues facing the U.S. (and China) in a crisp, readable book.
The development of the semiconductor industry occurred in the United States, with some true giants of business with loads of brainpower leading a wave of technological innovation that changed the world. How that industry has developed over the years, and most importantly, where it is today is the journey the author takes us on. How has so much of the actual production of chips been moved away from the U.S. to Korea and Taiwan? This book provides that roadmap.
The story of the early development of the industry was fascinating. Those business and technology giants include Gordon Moore, Andy Grove, Bob Joyce, William Shockley (later infamous for his racial theories) and maybe most importantly Morris Chang. The companies developed? Fairchild Semiconductor, Intel, Texas Instruments, Sony, Samsung, and maybe most importantly the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company. That early development was seeded, in part, by the U.S. military, who came to understand from their Vietnam experience, that “dumb” bombs frequently missed their target. (See the failure of bombing interdiction of the Ho Chi Minh trail) As the military started to seek “smart weapons” they started funding some of the research that brought us chip technology. As part of this development Gordon Moore, a true visionary, ultimately came to theorize that the number of components that could fit on a silicon chip would double every year. (Eventually he modified this, in 1975, to a doubling every two years) This theory became known as “Moore’s Law” and has driven chip development ever since, and in its way has brought us to the manufacturing conundrum facing the U.S. today.
With the U.S. military having some success in creating precision guided munitions the Soviet Union saw the potential and understood that it needed to get into the technology race. But they were hopelessly behind, and Soviet Marshall Nikolai Ogarkov knew it.
“By traditional metrics like numbers of tanks or troops, the Soviet Union had a clear advantage in the 1980’s. Ogarkov saw things differently: quality was overtaking quantity. He was fixated on the threat posed by America’s precision weapons. Combined with better surveillance and communication tools, the ability to strike targets accurately hundreds or even thousands of miles away was producing a ‘military-technical revolution,’ Ogarkov argued to anyone who’d listen. The days of vacuum tune-guided Sparrow missiles missing 90 percent of their targets in the skies over Vietnam were long gone. The Soviet Union had many more tanks than the United States, but Ogarkov realized his tanks would soon be many times more vulnerable in a fight with the U.S.”
Chip War by Chris Miller pg. 146
The Soviets deployed the usual tactics, looking to simply “copy” U.S. chip technology through industrial espionage. The Soviets, like many to come, simply tripped over Moore’s Law. As they stole and created chip technology the U.S. was moving to newer, better technology. Loading ever more transistors onto silicon in accordance with the forecast by Gordon Moore the U.S. simply outran the Soviets. Marshall Ogarkov’s fears were confirmed by the U.S. invasion of Iraq, a Soviet military client. Some Soviet experts expected a longer drawn out war, but U.S. weapons systems made short work of the Iraqi defenses.
“‘It is the triumph of silicon over steel’ declared a New York Times headline. ‘War Hero Status Possible for the Computer Chip,’ read another.”
Chip War by Chris Miller pg. 154
The overwhelming superiority of U.S. technology made Soviet conventional advantage much less intimidating, creating a dynamic that required ever escalating investment by the Soviets to keep (catch) up. They simply could not do so.
While military applications were a major factor in the start of the U.S. semiconductor industry the companies at the forefront of that development realized that civilian use was the future. Carver Mead, a Caltech professor, was prescient in 1972.
“‘In the next ten years,’ Mead predicted in 1972, ‘every facet of our society will be automated to some degree.’ He envisioned a ‘tiny computer deep down inside of our telephone, or our washing machine, or our car,’ as these silicon chips became pervasive and inexpensive.”
Chip War by Chris Miller pg. 71
The mass market drove the economics, and with that market developing the major companies moved from military to civilian use, seeing the ability to generate huge revenues.
Miller gives us a very understandable view of the development of the industry, with a critically important view of how chip manufacturing developed, and why “fabs” are located where they are. This brings us to the present day, and the challenges facing the two superpowers as they compete for semiconductor supremacy. This history shows us some tremendous innovation in the U.S. along with some major missteps that drove some key manufacturing out of the U.S. Former Texas Instruments executive Morris Chang had the idea to fabricate chips based on the design of others. That key idea was rejected by key folks in the U.S. industry, with even Gordon Moore telling Chang that:
“Morris, you’ve had a lot of good ideas in your time. … This isn’t one of them.”
Chip War by Chris Miller pg. 167
The government of Taiwan, looking to create a chip industry, brought Morris Chang in to help create that industry. Chang has succeeded beyond any reasonable expectations at the time of his creation of TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company) in Taiwan, and the idea of separating chip design from chip manufacturing took off, making TSMC a chip giant, and creating a worldwide system of chip supply that exists today. That system brings us to the main battle lines between China and the U.S. today, which is where the real value of this book comes in.
Morris Chang’s idea of separating chip design from chip manufacturing enabled TSMC to begin manufacturing chips for many companies. For some, like myself, not familiar with the how and why of chip manufacturing, adopting an industrial policy in the U.S. that drove such manufacturing back to the U.S. should be an achievable goal for the government. This book shows us why simple solutions are not so simple.
Chang’s concept, and the eventual dominant role for TSMC in chip manufacturing, started with Chang’s insight, but has really been driven by massive government support and the complexity of chip manufacturing. Moore’s law, and how that has made chip manufacturing ever more expensive and complex, has made the creation of “chip fabs” ever more difficult due to that expense. Reliance on TSMC became natural, and has led to a real dominance for that company in creating chips designed by others, including Apple. Miller gives us a view of that complexity through the difficulty of lithography necessary for chip manufacturing.
With Taiwan dominating chip manufacturing, and with China facing the same issues of cost and complexity as the U.S. in trying to create chip manufacturing onshore, the competition between the countries is heating up. The Chinese saber-rattling on Taiwan is not simply a territorial issue, but one with significant geopolitical and economic ramifications for the world. Those issues are explored expertly by Chris Miller in this book, and constitute possibly the greatest national security issue facing the United States. The chip shortage recently experienced by the U.S. is a small indication of how impactful on our economy these advanced chips are. A couple of important facts. China imported, by dollar volume, more chips than oil in 2020. TSMC has over 50% share of the worldwide chip market.
When President Biden indicated that the U.S. would militarily intervene in the event of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, although walked back, we got to understand the importance of Taiwan to the U.S. and the world economy.
What is the future? This book gives a look at what has become the major national security issue of our day. As China becomes more aggressive in the neighborhood the changes are profound, including accelerated military spending by Japan. If you read one book this year this should be high on the list.
Former Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd has written a book on the relationship between the U.S. and China, and the potential for that relationship to rupture so badly that war is the result. It is an important book that brings some great insight to the diplomatic relationship so critical to the world in the years to come.
Rudd is not just a former Australian Prime Minister. He has a long history of interaction with top Chinese officials in his various governmental roles, speaks fluent Mandarin, and continues to be a key figure through his presidency of the Asia Society Political Institute. This book is reflective of that knowledge, and brings his ideas on the best way forward for both countries. The book importantly brings his ideas on what the Chinese perspective is, with the advantage of having spoken directly with Xi on many occasions, and before Xi ascended to his current position.
I would not describe the book as a text, but it is a policy book that looks at specifics, and on that basis is not for everyone. But I believe it is important to actually examine what policy goals are driving Chinese actions, and what might be prudent U.S. responses.
Rudd does not look at the CCP as some have in the past, seeing hope for adoption of western style democracy. The error made by those who held such views, confusing a drive towards economic modernization with a move to political pluralism in China, is laid to rest fairly quickly. The misunderstanding of Deng Xiaoping and his sweeping economic reforms is explained:
“While not an orthodox Marxist, Deng remained a fully committed Leninist. Unsurprisingly, he was determined not to cede the party’s political powerful the sake of American economic engagement or common strategic endeavor against the Soviet Union. Even as he began his his reform and opening campaign in 1979, he vowed from the outset adherence to the Four Cardinal Principles and that China would forever ‘uphold the dictatorship of the proletariat’ and ‘the leadership of the Communist Party.’ In Deng’s words, while it was important for China to ‘open the windows wide to breathe the fresh air,’ the party’s responsibility was to continue to ‘swat away the flies and insects that came with it.’”
Rudd, Kevin “The Avoidable War” pg 35
Rudd’s book does not sugarcoat Chinese views. He gives us his view of Chinese priorities (Xi priorities) as ten concentric circles that he believes are core Chinese principles. His listing, and explanations, take up a large section of the book. It is an interesting approach, and covers some critical areas of the U.S.-China relationship, including “the view from Washington” on these China goals and principles.
Rudd ends up advocating what he calls “managed strategic competition” between the U.S. and China, with the goal of containing misunderstandings or miscalculations that could lead to the outbreak of war. Rudd’s view is that such a competition would importantly contain guardrails that would manage the relationship in a way that would allow for each nation to pursue its national interests within an agreed upon space that would prevent the outbreak of catastrophe.
Rudd’s prescriptions most certainly sound reasonable, and he challenges critics to offer alternatives. I do believe that his ideas on “managed strategic competition” are sound, and the idea of managing strategic competition without war have precedent in the U.S.-Soviet relationship. Of course such a “managed relationship” requires both parties to be willing to do the diplomatic heavy work required to achieve that sort of consensus. It also requires that some issues that are fairly intractable, like Taiwan, be put off, effectively kicking the can down the road. From the U.S. perspective I am quite sure that such a short term forestalling of the Taiwan issue would be quite satisfactory. I am not so sure it would be satisfactory to China. Since the Shanghai Communique both sides have finessed the issue of Taiwan, but the entire point of the newly ambitious program of Xi is to do away with some of the finesse. The principle of Chines foreign policy put forward by Deng, “hide your strength, bide your time” has effectively been replaced by a much more assertive posture undertaken by XI. Relative to Taiwan Rudd believes the issue can still be dealt with diplomatically, but he candidly deals with the military situation in the event of Chinese military action.
…”What it would require is for the United States to restore the wider military balance of power with China across the East Asian theater by redressing gaps and vulnerabilities in its current force structure and capabilities. It would also require the Taiwanese to take seriously their military deficiencies, which have accumulated over several decades and which neither side of Taiwanese politics has so far demonstrated sufficient determination to resolve.”
Rudd, Kevin “The Avoidable War” pg 379-380
He talks, in this context, of joint economic action by the U.S., Taiwan and Japan to fortify Taiwan economically in the event of a Chinese economic blockade of the island. It is also necessary, in my view, that Japanese military spending be increased dramatically to meet the challenges posed by China in the neighborhood. Current war-gaming has not shown good results for the U.S. military in a showdown over Taiwan, and those “gaps and vulnerabilities’ referenced diplomatically by Rudd need to be addressed if a military showdown were to be successfully prosecuted by the U.S.
Rudd homes in on the technological war between the countries, and the so vital access to chip technology driving the world economy today. It is a vital part of this strategic competition, especially with Taiwan being such a vital cog in that supply chain. A transfer of Taiwan today to Chinese control would have major, and very negative ramifications for the U.S. in that area.
It is not a unipolar world any longer. Understanding the other side of the key strategic relationship facing the U.S. today is vital if we are to get to solutions and policies that serve the nation’s interests while preventing war. Kevin Rudd has given us a book that will help to promote that necessary understanding. Even if you do not agree with all of his policy ideas the book brings the conversation where it needs to go.
