The Washington Two Step

The Speaker (and his House Republican caucus) has unveiled his plan to raise the debt ceiling, which appears to be a two step process, with a trillion in authorization given now in return for about $1.2 trillion in discretionary spending reductions over ten years. The second authorization, to be given next year, would follow another legislative deficit commission (yes Republicans voted against a legislative deficit commission a short time ago) that would authorize another $1.6 trillion in increased ceiling authorization, while seeking entitlement reductions worth $1.8 trillion.

The Speaker announced that his plan was issued after bipartisan consultations, but I did not happen to catch any Democrats at his announcement. Maybe the Speaker has lined up sufficient Republican votes in the House to pass his partisan bill. But Democrats in the House ought to put that to the test. The Speaker should receive no Democratic support for his bill. In theory the Speaker should still be able to pass a bill. But if the bill was written in a partisan way then it ought to be passed that way. Does the Speaker have the votes in the Republican caucus? Democrats should make him produce that majority.

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The $400 Billion Question, Or Hastert's Revenge

So the “large deal” debt talks have once again broken off in acrimony, with each side pointing fingers, leaving the United States perilously close to a sovereign debt default. So what happened? Republicans, led by Speaker Boehner, are accusing the President of “moving the goalposts” by insisting on an additional $400 billion in “revenues” beyond what the Speaker had agreed to, which was $800 billion. The Speaker and Republicans are saying that the President moved the revenue target after meeting with Congressional Democrats, who raised holy hell about the entitlement modifications, forcing the President to “move the goalposts” on taxes. Is that what happened? It looks to me like the Republicans might have a point on the later introduction of the $400 billion. Was it a cynical ploy on the President’s part, or were there other factors that contributed?

The President has responded by saying that the extra $400 billion was introduced, not as an ultimatum, but as part of an ongoing negotiation. In his presentation the President pointed to the fact that his revenue request was less than the number that the “gang of six” had presented in their plan. No doubt that there were other issues, such as what the penalties for Congressional non-action would be (triggers), but the main cited impediment by Republicans has been the additional $400 billion in taxes.

I have attached a clip of Lawrence O’Donnell crediting the President with snookering the Republicans by agreeing to deep spending cuts while attaching what he knew to be revenue targets that Speaker Boehner could not agree to. O’Donnell falls into the “move the goalpost” camp, crediting the President with “looking reasonable” while striving to derail any deal that contained real spending cuts. O’Donnell makes some sense, but I am not yet convinced. Certainly the Republican’s have entered negotiations with the President severely handicapped by the upfront restrictions on their position that they have publicly laid out. It is never a good idea as a negotiator to totally box yourself in and let the other side know the true parameters of what can be bargained. To do so is to give away much of your ability to bargain, and to test the willingness of the other side to move. The President has had a huge advantage over Boehner from the start, and that is the advantage O’Donnell thinks the President took advantage of. But could the President have had another reason to have requested another $400 billion in revenue?

It appears clear that Boehner, operating as the head of a caucus that has many members who want to see default, was going to have trouble producing enough Republican votes to push through an increase in the debt ceiling with $800 billion in new revenues. Without a doubt Boehner was going to have to rely on Nancy Pelosi to deliver a big bloc of Democratic votes for passage of the potential compromise. With Boehner seeing Republican support peeling away by the hour his reliance on the President and Pelosi certainly might have led the President to “move the goalposts” in order to get Boehner a bloc of Democrats in the House. You ask the President and Nancy Pelosi to deliver Democratic votes, and then you complain that they tell you what that might take? It was $400 billion, Mr. Speaker. No question that the Speaker was in a precarious position. If he helped push through a proposal that could not draw majority Republican support in the House, and passed with Democratic support making the difference he would have been under major siege politically from key Republican constituencies. So the Speaker has fallen back on the Denny Hastert formula, which says that a bill will not be moved to the floor without majority Republican support. But that caucus will not agree to anything that has compromise, with some saying that no bill raising the debt ceiling can be moved.

So to sum up the Speaker is in a tough spot, unable to move a bill through the House without major Democratic support. But he cannot agree to the deal that will draw that support, and has allowed his caucus to severely limit his room to maneuver. The President has him in a box. I do agree with O’Donnell that the President has easily bested Boehner and Cantor in this duel, with Republicans now staring out at the abyss. An abyss that they have created on their own.

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Methuen's Updated List of Candidates

The list of municipal candidates, refreshed from my last posting. Below each office/candidate listing will be the list of those certified by the City Clerk as having submitted sufficient signatures to gain ballot access. Information includes those certified, and those who have returned papers and are awaiting certification.

Mayor
Al Dinuccio- Ken Willette- Steve Zanni-John Cronin
Certified: Al Dinuccio- Ken Willette- Steve Zanni
Papers Returned, Awaiting Certification: John Cronin

Councilor at Large (Elect Three)
Jennifer Kannan*- Michael Condon- Joyce Campagnone*- Dorothy Kalil
Certified: Michael Condon- Joyce Campagnone
Papers Returned, Awaiting Certification: Jennifer Kannan

West District Councilor (Elect Two)
James Hajjar* -Sean Fountain -Jeanne Pappalardo*
Certified: James Hajjar-Sean Fountain

East District Councilor (Elect Two)
Joseph Leone- Ron Marsan-Patricia Uliano*- Tom Ciulla
Certified: Patricia Uliano-Ron Marsan

Central District Councilor (Elect Two)
David Lavalee- Fadi Chahine- Lisa Yarid Ferry- Jamie Atkinson-Joseph Lambert
Certified: James Atkinson
Papers Returned, Awaiting Certification: Lisa Yarid Ferry

Methuen School Committee (Elect Six)
Robert Vogler*- Barbara Grondine*- Lynn Hajjar Kumm- Mary Jean Fawcett- Jeri-An Batal- Lorie Aliano- Paul Downing- Evan Chaisson*- Eunice Delice- Deborah Quinn- Mark Graziano
Certified: Robert Vogler*- Barbara Grondine*-Evan Chaisson*-Lynn Hajjar Kumm

Vocational School Committee (Elect Two)
Thomas Grondine*- Kenneth Henrick-DJ Deeb
Certified: Thomas Grondine*
Papers Returned, Awaiting Certification: Kenneth Henrick

Methuen Housing Authority (Elect Two)
Robert Sheehan*- Joseph Leone- Kathleen Mulligan*
Cerified: None
Papers Returned, Awaiting Certification: Robert Sheehan

Nevins Library Trustees (Elect Two)
Arthur Nicholson*- Josephine Napolitano*
Certified: Josephine Napolitano
Papers Returned, Awaiting Certification: Arthur Nicholson

* denotes incumbent
Italics indicate additions to the list from the last posting

Posted in Methuen, Methuen City Council, Methuen Mayor's Race | Tagged | 1 Comment

The Return of the Washington Six

The news media, looking for any sign of breakthrough in debt ceiling talks, has managed to latch on to the much hyped return of the “Gang of Six”, with a new plan to achieve about $3.7 trillion in deficit reduction over ten years. While the Gang, with the return of Tom Coburn, has managed to generate lots of buzz about the potential for utilization of their “plan” as a way to get the debt ceiling raised and break the logjam, I would not be wagering all that much on the success of their effort.

The bi-partisan group has simply floated some new numbers, under a framework that has been loudly and consistently rejected by House Republicans. Since the Gang’s plan does include some new revenue I am at a loss to understand how it is different, as a framework, than what the President offered weeks ago. On top of that relatively simple fact we must add the negative attitudes of both Republican and Democratic leadership in the Senate towards the effort, and the plan. On that basis, and with the inability to get the framework converted to actual legislative language in anywhere near the necessary time-frame I think it is safe, for now, to not look to this proposal as one that will bring a deal forward.

So what is the way forward? The President has indicated he will veto a short term deal that does not address the long term problem. Whether even a framework can be agreed to in order to justify a signature on a short term extension is dubious in light of the stated position of the House. That leaves McConnell as the best alternative that is publicly on the table. There is plenty of talking going on, even private meetings between Speaker Boehner and Leader Pelosi. I am sure there is much we do not know about the deal potential, but it is critical that the nonsense stop here and now.

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Methuen High School AP Participation Soars

Partnership with the Mass Math + Science Initiative produces big gains in
Advanced Placement* participation and performance.
METHUEN, MA – Methuen High School has made great gains on students’ Advanced Placement (AP) scores, largely as a result of its partnership with the Mass Math + Science Initiative (MMSI), according to information just released by the College Board. This partnership, which began in the 2009-2010 school year, has enabled the school to expand its AP course enrollments and has provided resources and professional development to support high-level teaching and learning.

From 2009 to 2011, Methuen has seen a staggering 273% increase in students participating in AP exams, along with an equally impressive 198% increase in the number of students earning qualifying scores. Prior to 2010, AP course participation for low-income and minority students in Methuen was quite low. This past year, 24.1% of Methuen’s AP exam participants were minority students, and 17.3% came from low-income families. In addition to calculus, statistics, biology, chemistry, physics, environmental science, and two AP English classes supported by MMSI, Methuen High also offers AP courses in Spanish, psychology, United States history, European history, and studio art. Increased participation and improved scores have been evident across the board.

AP courses are college-level classes taught in high school. Each course culminates with a May exam designed to measure each student’s mastery of the subject. Exams are graded on a scale of 1-5, with scores of 3, 4 and 5 considered passing or “qualifying” scores. More than 90 percent of four-year colleges in the United States and colleges in more than 60 other countries give students credit, advanced placement, or both on the basis of AP Exam scores.

“We’re thrilled with the AP achievement of our students,” said Jennifer Smith, Methuen’s Assistant Superintendent for Curriculum, Instruction, and Assessment. “We’ve almost tripled the number of students participating in Advanced Placement and have nearly doubled the number of qualifying scores. The MMSI initiative has given Methuen High so many resources and such high-quality professional development to support our teachers and students. It has been an extremely effective means of giving more students college-level learning experiences while they’re still in high school.”

MMSI expands access and improves outcomes in college-level courses, particularly among black, Hispanic, low-income, female, and other student groups under-represented by AP classes, in order to prepare them for highly skilled careers in STEM. The MMSI approach includes extensive teacher training and mentoring, Saturday study sessions and other academic supports for students, and privately-funded financial awards for teachers and students. Schools participating in the program sign performance agreements with MMSI, which include specific enrollment and achievement targets. 2010-2011 was Methuen High School’s second year in the program.

“These results demonstrate that with high quality training and support, students in Methuen and across Massachusetts can succeed in rigorous, college-level courses, setting them on a path to college and career success,” said Morton Orlov II, President of the Mass Math + Science Initiative. “Our students, particularly low-income and minority students, are meeting the challenge. The school district has demonstrated a commitment to excellence by partnering with MMSI, and Methuen’s teachers and students worked very hard for these impressive results – I congratulate them.”

MMSI, the largest statewide high school science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) education program, now partners with 45 Massachusetts high schools. In its first three years, MMSI has increased AP math, science, and English enrollments in participating schools from about 4,000 to more than 8,000 today. From 2008 to 2010, MMSI schools nearly doubled their numbers of qualifying scores with a 96% increase. A 2011 Worcester Polytechnic Institute study showed that MMSI schools have made “significantly more progress” in closing AP participation and achievement gaps than non-MMSI Massachusetts high schools.

Information on total gains in qualifying scores across MMSI’s 45 partner schools will be released in September.

About Methuen High School
Located in northeast Massachusetts, Methuen High School has a total enrollment of just over 1800 students. About one-third of its students are minorities, and nearly 20% did not speak English as their first language. One-third of the school’s students come from low-income families. Methuen High’s AP program began in 1990-1991, with 26 students participating in two courses—calculus and English literature. In 2010-2011, 265 students participated in thirteen different Advanced Placement courses. More than 18% of the school’s most recent graduating class had scored a 3 or higher on at least one AP exam during their junior and senior years.

About MMSI
The Mass Math + Science Initiative (MMSI) drives a school culture of high expectations and dramatically increases participation and performance in Advanced Placement courses, particularly among underserved populations, to prepare students for college and career success in STEM. Led by Mass Insight Education in partnership with the Commonwealth of Massachusetts, the program was founded in 2007, when Massachusetts was one of six states selected by the National Math and Science Initiative (NMSI) to receive a privately funded grant to expand enrollment and performance in AP math, science and English courses. For more information, visit http://www.massinsight.org/mmsi.

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The Coburn Plan

Senator Tom Coburn has unveiled a plan that calls for a $9 trillion cut in the federal deficit, with deep cuts to federal programs and major changes to entitlements, but also calling for a major revamp of the tax code to eliminate tax expenditures, including subsidies to ethanol and other tax code giveaways. Coburn also calls for a trillion dollar reduction in Defense spending over ten years.

“Tax expenditures are not tax cuts,” Coburn said. “Tax expenditures are socialism and corporate welfare. Tax expenditures are increases on anyone who does not receive the benefit or can’t hire a lobbyist or special interest group to manipulate the code to their favor. Politicians love to play the tax code because it benefits the politicians. No conservative should support Washington choosing winners and losers in the tax code.”

So Coburn attacks the sacred cows of both Democrats and Republicans, (a man I like more and more) and is feeling the heat already from Grover Norquist. The Norquist sponsored Americans for Tax Reform web site unleashed a volley against the plan:

There is no rate reduction whatsoever in this plan. It’s a set of tax hikes, plain and simple. There is no tax reform in this plan. The plan would undermine prospects for long-term tax reform. By voluntarily taking $1 trillion of tax deductions and credits away now to pay for Congressional over-spending, there’s $1 trillion less to trade with for lower rates later.

I have not read the plan, nor seen any analysis, but I am prepared to say that this is the framework Republicans should have been working under in their negotiations with the President on the debt ceiling. Trading steep spending cuts for tax code changes that produce revenue, which would be earmarked for deficit reduction. Including defense in the program cuts instead of throwing more borrowed money at the Pentagon. Can’t say that the President would have agreed to a 7 to 1 ratio of spending cuts to revenue increases, but Republicans would have been able to occupy some of the political high ground now held exclusively by the President.

Coburn’s plan, whatever its relative merits, is going nowhere fast. But we should not dismiss the Coburn framework, which essentially builds upon Simpson-Bowles. There are ways that we can make progress on the deficit, but both parties need to be willing to make some concessions to achieve that goal. Of course that assumes that deficit reduction is the goal.

The Coburn Plan Executive Summary is below:

Washington is again waiting until the last minute to avoid a “crisis”— a crisis foreseen years in advance and created by Congress itself. For far too long, Washington politicians from both
parties have spent money we do not have for things we do not need. As a result, the national debt
now exceeds $14 trillion, $4 trillion of which was added in just the past three years. Now those who created this debt want us to believe the only solution is to simply borrow more money.

But any debt increase not accompanied with meaningful savings will only temporarily postpone the inevitable. Real choices must be made to reduce spending, increase revenues, or both. If Washington does not begin making these difficult choices today, those decisions will be made for us tomorrow and the results could be catastrophic. The only guaranteed entitlements for future generations will be debt and lower standards of living.

Our increasing government debt will “result in lower incomes than would otherwise occur, making future generations worse off,” warns the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office. “Higher debt would make it harder for policymakers to respond to unexpected problems, such as financial crises, recessions, and wars. Higher debt would increase the likelihood of a fiscal crisis, in which investors would lose confidence in the government’s ability to manage its budget and the government would thereby lose its ability to borrow at affordable interest rates.”

Special interests and politicians would have us believe any proposed savings resulting from reducing spending will unfairly harm the disadvantaged. This is absolutely not true. The federal budget is bloated with hundreds of billions of dollars of waste, fraud and duplication.

Consolidating overlapping programs can actually improve efficiency while reducing costs. A recent Government Accountability Office (GAO) report exposed how duplication within the federal government is wasting hundreds of billions of dollars every year. “This fragmentation can create difficulties for people in accessing services as well as administrative burdens for providers who must navigate various application requirements,” GAO noted. “The lack of coordination” caused by duplication poses a “barrier to the delivery of services” to those in need, according to GAO.

Improving the management of programs can also save billions of dollars. The federal government is overpaying pharmaceutical companies nearly $4 million a month for drugs provided by some federal health programs, for example. Likewise, Washington paid over $1 billion in benefits to the deceased over the past decade. Fixing these and other mismanagement will not only save tax dollars, but also ensure more, rather than less, resources to provide aid to eligible beneficiaries.

But in this era of trillion dollar annual deficits, even saving hundreds of billions of dollars is not enough. Tough choices will still be necessary. Everyone is going to feel a pinch. For some it may be a sting. Everyone will be asked to do more with less. This includes Members of Congress, government employees and contractors, millionaires, and even the White House and Pentagon. We are all in this together and, therefore, we all must be part of the solution.

When we are borrowing forty cents for every dollar we spend, we cannot afford excuses. We must review every department, every program, and every expenditure for potential savings. If you cannot find waste in any part of the federal budget, whether health care programs, defense spending, or even the tax code, it can only be for one reason—you have not looked.

The federal government has become so large, it is impossible to grasp its true size and scope
or to pay for its costs. Nearly every corner of the federal government is rife with duplication,
mismanagement, and special interest carve outs. Each is protected by an entrenched bureaucracy, a
well financed lobbying group, an active and organized constituency, and an entrenched politician,
which time and again align to best any efforts to reform, cut, or eliminate government waste.
Perhaps there is no better recent example of this phenomenon then when only 15 of 100 senators
voted to defund the infamous Bridge to Nowhere in Alaska which had become the national symbol
of government waste.

Eventually commonsense prevailed when taxpayer outrage accomplished what a vote in the
Senate could not. Not only was the bridge stopped, the entire favor factory within Congress that
allowed lawmakers to dole out tax dollars to special interests for parochial pet projects long
defended by politicians in both parties was shut down. A decade earlier, similar widespread public
demand forced Washington to overhaul welfare. These efforts, both of which were made possible with bipartisan support, are the models for returning fiscal sanity to our nation’s budget. The public is again demanding action but Washington is playing a game of partisan budget brinksmanship. The problems we face are too big to be caught up in political posturing and they will not be solved without the cooperation of members of both parties.

Most of our excesses are the result of decades of Congress overstepping the limited powers
granted to the federal government by the U.S. Constitution. Government is so vast, complicated,
and protected by special interests, it has become nearly impossible for even most lawmakers to
navigate. As a result, overly simplistic solutions that will not solve the problem are being proposed,
such as “capping” spending at unsustainable levels, reforms to the budget process that cannot
guarantee spending reductions, raising taxes on millionaires, or increasing the government’s borrowing authority.

A thorough review of the entire federal budget is long overdue. Such an evaluation should
not be seen through political or ideological lenses, but as a practical evaluation: What works and
what does not? What is a priority and what is not? What is in the national interest and is a special
interest? What is necessary today and what has become obsolete? And what is efficient and what is
wasteful?

This report does just that. It provides a plan to put the U.S. back in black by identifying $9 trillion in very specific savings that can be achieved over the next decade. These savings are derived from consolidating duplication, weeding out waste, eliminating special interest subsidies, reducing overhead costs, demanding results, and setting priorities.

This plan recognizes all spending is not created equal by asking those with more to take less
to ensure those who gave more will not be left with nothing. It ensures health care for wounded
combat veterans, while ending unemployment benefits for jobless millionaires.

It ensures initiatives benefitting all Americans continue to receive sufficient support while
eliminating those benefitting a select few. Medical research to unlock cures for cancer and other
afflictions conducted by the National Institutes of Health would continue to receive modest funding
increases every year, while tax breaks for Hollywood movie producers would be ended.

Social Security is protected for future generations by giving more to those with less and less
to those with more. The life of Medicare is extended without changing the fundamentals of the
program. Our national defense is protected while eliminating over $1 trillion in Pentagon waste and
excess. Foreign aid to nations who are making money by loaning the money back to us is cut off
while maintaining our commitments to our allies and needy nations who rely upon our continued
generosity to combat disease and poverty.

The debt is the real threat to our future and our national security. More than $1.5 trillion is projected to be added to our $14.4 trillion national debt every year for the foreseeable future. These colossal amounts are dwarfed by the $61.6 trillion in additional unfunded obligations promised by the federal government. These commitments include Social Security payments and federal retirement programs, which have been raided by Congress to pay for other programs.

We cannot guarantee retirement programs for the elderly, protect the safety net for the poor,
or preserve the American Dream for future generations if we do not end Washington’s unsustainable borrowing and spending. While the federal government is bailing out banks, corporations, and government programs and trust funds, we are bankrupting our nation in the process and there is no one who can bail us out when that happens.

To avoid such a catastrophe, this report provides perhaps the most detailed deficit reduction
plan ever proposed. It is the result of a thorough review of every federal department, agency,
program, and mission. It does not rely on gimmicks. It does not postpone spending cuts to future
years. It does not defer decisions to commissions or future generations. It provides honest and
thoughtful reasons for savings everywhere in the federal government, from entitlement programs to
defense spending, and even the tax code, based upon facts rather than ideology or political posturing.

Taken together, this report provides a balanced plan that protects our priorities but asks
every American to make some sacrifices today to ensure future opportunities for our children and
grandchildren.

http://www.c-spanvideo.org/videoLibrary/assets/swf/CSPANPlayer.swf?pid=300564-1

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Kasey Walko is July Artist of the Month

Mayor William M. Manzi has named Kasey Walko as July’s Artist of the Month.

Kasey is a recent graduate of Methuen High School where she received high honors in academics and was a member of the National Art Honor Society. She is a member of the Art Institute Group of
Merrimack Valley.

Kasey has exhibited her work with the Art Institute Group of Merrimack Valley for the Art at the Library and Art at Mann’s Orchard shows. She has also exhibited her work at the New Hampshire Institute of Art High School Drawing Exhibition, the Greater Lawrence Educational Collaborative Art Show, and the Methuen Schools Art Show. Kasey is a Gold Key winner of the Boston Globe Scholastic Art and Writing Award and attended Art All-State last year at the Worchester Art Museum. Over the summer she will be working at the Essex Art Center as the Intern Coordinator and she will begin attending Massachusetts College of Art and Design in the Fall to study Illustration and Art Education.

Mayor Manzi stated, “I’d like to thank Kasey for her participation in this program. She is one of the many talented young painters working in our community. It is an honor to display her artwork. I encourage people to come to my office and view her paintings.”

The Methuen Artist of the Month Program was created by Mayor Manzi five years ago in order to give members of the Methuen Arts Community a forum to display their work and to encourage participation in Methuen’s growing creative economy. Methuen artists interested in being considered for Artist of the Month should contact the Mayor’s Office.

Kasey Walko is July Artist of the Month

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Fleeing the Pamplona Bulls

With real progress on the debt ceiling issue just not happening, and with time running out all sides appear to be focused on the McConnell plan as the escape hatch that will allow the U.S. Government to avoid default. The credit rating agencies, looking at the stalemate in Washington, have publicly indicated that a credit downgrade may be right around the corner. From the Wall Street Journal:

Moody’s Investors Service said it was reviewing the government’s top Aaa bond rating for a possible downgrade, citing the “rising possibility” that the government’s $14.29 trillion borrowing limit won’t be raised soon enough to prevent the U.S. from running out of money to pay its bills.

And on Friday, ratings agency Standard & Poor’s threatened to downgrade U.S. government debt from AAA, saying there is at least a 50-50 chance it will cut the top-notch rating on long-term Treasurys in the next three months. The risk of default is “small, though increasing,” S&P said Friday.

But despite warnings from the Chairman of the Federal Reserve, the Secretary of the Treasury, and most sane economists there are many Republicans in the House that just don’t want to believe it. Some have even said that a failure to act will lift our credit rating. From the Washington Post:

Rep. Mo Brooks (R-Ala.), another freshman, said that a much bigger fear was that raising the debt ceiling would enable Washington to spend itself into paralyzing debt in a few years.

“A debt-ceiling problem, as large as it is, is not anywhere near as a big or as bad as” that, Brooks said. If Aug. 2 arrives without a deal, Brooks said, the federal government could continue paying creditors. He said that a show of tough fiscal self-discipline could actually improve creditors’ confidence.

“There should be no default on August 2,” Brooks said. “In fact, our credit rating should be improved by not raising the debt ceiling.”

I am not sure what you can say to that, except WOW! Speaker Boehner certainly has his work cut out for him.

But I digress. Back to the McConnell plan, which has split Republicans badly. The Club for Growth has unleashed a new ad calling out Republicans, urging them to stand firm against raising the debt ceiling. The Club is clearly targeting the McConnell Plan. But over at the Wall Street Journal they have correctly assessed the situation, and are urging the more rabid Republicans to tone it down, and prepare for raising the ceiling.

Instead he and Mr. Geithner will gradually shut down government services, the more painful the better. The polls that now find that voters oppose a debt-limit increase will turn on a dime when Americans start learning that they won’t get Social Security checks. Republicans will then run like they’re fleeing the Pamplona bulls, and chaotic retreats are the ugliest kind. By then they might end up having to vote for a debt-limit increase and a tax increase.

The tea party/talk-radio expectations for what Republicans can accomplish over the debt-limit showdown have always been unrealistic. As former Senator Phil Gramm once told us, never take a hostage you’re not prepared to shoot. Republicans aren’t prepared to stop a debt-limit increase because the political costs are unbearable. Republicans might have played this game better, but the truth is that Mr. Obama has more cards to play.

Yup, that is about right. The Republicans who don’t know any better may have actually believed some of the rhetoric that led them to take the debt ceiling vote “as a hostage”. But McConnell and other Republican leaders understand the gravity of the situation, as well as the potential for the “destruction of the Republican brand” if Republicans force a sovereign debt default. McConnell is not quite as ready as the Club for Growth to “shoot the hostage”. We can only hope that the Republicans in the House come to their senses before they have to flee the “Pamplona Bulls”.

In terms of how the Republicans really feel about the deficit take a look at the Grover Norquist interview below. At 8:56 of that clip Norquist explains that the deficit is not an issue for Republicans, saying that borrowing $10 on a bill of $100 may be preferable to taxing for that imaginary ten-spot. For Norquist and most Republicans cutting taxes is where it is at, not cutting deficits. Norquist’s war with Republican budget hawk Tom Coburn over the issue of ending federal subsidies for ethanol illustrates that point exactly.

In the end the Republicans will raise the debt ceiling along the McConnell lines, whether the House Republicans like it or not. Lets hope they don’t do too much damage to the economy before they are forced to retreat.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/32545640

Visit msnbc.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy

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Dance to the Republican Music

With much focus on the debt ceiling debate and the Republican call for cuts to the federal budget and austerity for the American public, the group that has taken the hardest stand against raising the debt ceiling, House Republicans, passed a Defense Appropriations bill last week that RAISED defense spending by $17 billion over the prior year. That bill was worth $649 billion, but somehow, despite Republican claims that ALL spending is on the table, Defense was exempted from the budget ax. Increases in Defense spending have Republican approval, especially when we are borrowing the funds to pay the bills.

The House, in passing the bill, restored $120 million in funding for the Pentagon’s Military Bands program. The band program, in my view, is a good one. But the amendment offered was to cut the appropriation down to $200 million from $320 million. And that amendment was rejected by Republicans. And these are the guys saying they want a balanced budget amendment?????

I bumped into a new study that details the economic cost of the war commitments made by the United States in the last ten years, and the numbers are eye popping. The Brown study estimates that the ten year number is between $3.2 trillion and $4 trillion. That is just about the amount that all agree we need to cut out of the federal budget deficit in the next ten years. The Brown study estimates that federal interest payments on the borrowed money that has financed the wars is over $180 billion.

The United States paid for past wars by raising taxes and or selling war bonds. The current wars were paid for almost entirely by borrowing. This borrowing has raised the U.S. budget deficit, increased the national debt, and had othermacroeconomic effects, such as raising interest rates. The U.S. must also pay interest on the borrowed money. The interest paid on Pentagon spending alone, so far (from 2001 through FY 2011) is about $185.4 billion in constant dollars.

The Republican “deficit warriors” are not that concerned about spending, as evidenced by this Defense Appropriations process. But they certainly are playing the music of deficit reduction, while really engaged in a three card monte on the American taxpaying public.

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Methuen Municipal Candidates List

The list of municipal candidates, refreshed from my last posting. Below each office/candidate listing will be the list of those certified by the City Clerk as having submitted sufficient signatures to gain ballot access. Some candidates are in the process of being certified, so lack of certification, at this point, is not significant.

Mayor
Al Dinuccio- Ken Willette- Steve Zanni-John Cronin

Certified: Al Dinuccio- Ken Willette

Councilor at Large (Elect Three)
Jennifer Kannan*- Michael Condon- Joyce Campagnone*- Dorothy Kalil

Certified: Michael Condon

West District Councilor (Elect Two)
James Hajjar* -Sean Fountain -Jeanne Pappalardo*

Certified: None

East District Councilor (Elect Two)
Joseph Leone- Ron Marsan-Patricia Uliano*- Tom Ciulla

Certified: Patricia Uliano

Central District Councilor (Elect Two)
David Lavalee- Fadi Chahine- Lisa Yarid Ferry- Jamie Atkinson

Certified: None

Methuen School Committee (Elect Six)
Robert Vogler*- Barbara Grondine*- Lynn Hajjar Kumm- Mary Jean Fawcett- Jeri-An Batal- Lorie Aliano- Paul Downing- Evan Chaisson*- Eunice Delice- Deborah Quinn- Mark Graziano

Certified: Robert Vogler*- Barbara Grondine*

Vocational School Committee (Elect Two)
Thomas Grondine*- Kenneth Henrick-DJ Deeb

Certified: Thomas Grondine*

Methuen Housing Authority (Elect Two)
Robert Sheehan*- Joseph Leone- Kathleen Mulligan*

Cerified: None

Nevins Library Trustees (Elect Two)
Arthur Nicholson*- Josephine Napolitano*

Certified: None

* denotes incumbent
Italics indicate additions to the list from the last posting

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