Governor Patrick and Big Data

Much respected fiscal analyst Michael Widmer has issued a severe critique of the portion of Governor Patrick’s tax proposal that would expand the sales tax to include transactions in the computer software and data processing fields, calling the proposal a “Pandora’s Box”, making the point that this new levy will undercut the “competitiveness of the state.”

Widmer breaks his argument into four parts. The first is that the State of Massachusetts, on balance, is not business competitive as far as taxes go, and this levy will make that situation worse.

Companies of all sizes rely on technology to improve and grow, and taxing it would add to their costs of doing business. Massachusetts already has the second highest business costs in the country, behind only Hawaii.The state’s tax burden on businesses is the fifth highest in the country, according to the January 2013 report from the Greater Boston Chamber of Commerce. The state also ranks near the bottom for its difficult regulatory climate. Since so few other states have a similar tax, it would be one more factor that makes Massachusetts the most expensive place in the 48 contiguous states to run a business.

On balance I have less empathy for that argument than his others. The cost structure of the Commonwealth can be fairly criticized, but until someone decides that Massachusetts will do less in terms services then the overall tax burden must be shared equitably, which might mean extending the sales tax to some items currently not covered.

His second argument catches my attention, and may in fact have some merit. Widmer argues that the definitions of the computer services involved are unclear, and will lead to tax assessments being made on a subjective basis.

The tax is unclear and complex. Computer services and data processing are abstract and hard to define, making the boundaries of this tax blurry and uncertain. At a minimum, the Governor’s proposal would tax an enormous swath of technological tools and services such as custom-designed websites, cloud computing, data storage, computer
programming, and software installation. The current proposal uses nearly a dozen vague categories to describe computer and data processing. With such a nebulous definition, the application of this tax will be almost entirely subject to interpretations that can vary widely from person-to-person, business to-business, and state-to-state. For example, compare how Texas and Connecticut treat computer and data processing: Texas includes word processing, data entry, payroll and business accounting data, data search and storage, preparing payroll checks, and preparing W-2 forms. Connecticut covers storing and filing digital information, consulting services, and feasibility services.

I have not read the specific language but would give this point to Widmer. The language must be as clear and specific as is possible to avoid the types of potential problems highlighted by Widmer. But to be fair any legislative language can be tightened and improved. I am sure the Legislature could do so here.

Widmer’s third point is that the new industry phenomena known as “Big Data” would be impacted negatively just as Massachusetts is trying to make our State a “Big Data” hub, creating jobs and economic opportunity.

The tax targets cutting-edge innovation and has a particularly costly impact on Big Data, the burgeoning technological field that the Governor hopes will be a significant driver of the state’s economy.Big Data refers to enormous data sets that companies analyze to understand their customers better and make important scientific advances in fields such as weather forecasting, molecular modeling, and genetic sequencing. This sector relies heavily on
remote servers to store and save the data, which can only be accessed through the “cloud”—all functions that would be subject to the sales tax under the Governor’s proposal.The proposed tax would send a strongly negative message to the very industry the state is trying to attract and stymie growth at those Big Data companies already based in
Massachusetts, which the Governor’s office estimates employ more than 12,000 residents.

I am going to give that point to Widmer too, although I question whether the impacts would be as potentially severe as he outlines. An incubator period might be worth a look for an industry with so much upside potential to provide jobs and economic development to the State. It is certainly worth a discussion in the Legislature.

The fourth point is that the proposal would impose a tax on the development of electronic medical records, a major goal in the delivery of health care. On this one I come down squarely with Widmer. Health care software and records will need to be exempted, in my opinion, because we cannot be adding even a little expense to our health care system.

Governor Patrick responded to the criticism with the State House News Service:

Patrick said he disagreed that the tax change would make Massachusetts less competitive. “These are companies that are dealing nationally and the majority of states treat these matters exactly as we have proposed. Again, this is not something I proposed lightly, but it’s not like it’s an outlier by any means,” he said.

The Massachusetts Taxpayers Foundation has advocated for additional revenues for transportation, but I think it fair to say that the business backed group does not support the full package of $1.9 billion of revenue increases advocated by Governor Patrick. Widmer has given the Legislature some more to think about. I hope to have him on my radio show in the very near future.

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Governor Patrick in Haverhill

Video of Governor Deval Patrick talking about his budget and the need for new revenues to fund transportation and education, in Haverhill today at a Merrimack Valley Chamber of Commerce breakfast. The Governor spoke to an audience that included House Ways and Means Chairman Brian Dempsey, and business leaders from throughout the Merrimack Valley. Please excuse the video quality.

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The New Emergency Financial Manager in Detroit

Detroit is entering new financial territory, with Governor Rick Snyder naming a new “Emergency Financial Manager” for the City, with Attorney Kevyn Orr being named by the Governor. Attorney Orr is a lawyer with the firm of “Jones Day”, and is a noted specialist in turnarounds and municipal bankruptcy. The connection to bankruptcy law was not lost on many. The New York Times covered Attorney Orr’s appointment:

Despite Mr. Orr’s legal background, he said he hoped the city would not ultimately need to file for bankruptcy. Municipal bankruptcies are rare, but it was lost on no one that the state had selected an expert in bankruptcy law for Detroit, as opposed to a financial accountant, former city manager or elected official. Under Michigan law, a city can file for bankruptcy only under certain conditions, including if an emergency manager has attempted other measures and concluded that such a move is needed.

Detroit really is the World Series of municipal management and restructuring, with the attention of so many students of municipal finance focused on the results of this initiative by Governor Snyder. There are so many issues at hand, but as mentioned in a prior post I do not think that simply cutting budgets will be sufficient. An active effort to bring economic development and growth to Detroit must be the main component of the restructuring, along with a solid dose of financial realism. Borrowing on the capital markets to paper over operating deficits should be a thing of the past.

Lastly I have attached some video clips of Attorney Orr talking about the future in Detroit under his leadership. The Morning Joe segment had Rev. Al Sharpton questioning the Governor closely on the issue of disenfranchising local voters by essentially removing home rule from Detroit. It is a very serious question for the Governor, and the charge, as far as it goes, is true. The locals have had most, if not all, of their financial authority removed. It is, by definition, undemocratic. Despite my agreement to the definition I do not believe there was much choice here. The locals, on a financial level, have performed in an abysmal fashion. I do urge, in other situations, that we not fib about the hard numbers that are involved in Government. As Democrats we cannot paper over the poor performance of local governance in Detroit. On that basis the Republican Governor has made the correct choice, in my opinion, in naming a financial manager. The duration should be as short as can be reasonably expected to turn that great City around, hopefully without a bankruptcy filing. Attorney Orr will be under heavy scrutiny by all.

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We Have a Methuen Mayor's Race

Last night Methuen City Councilor Jennifer Kannan opened the 2013 campaign season by declaring her intent to run for Mayor of Methuen. Councilor Kannan is hoping to unseat incumbent Mayor Steve Zanni, who has already announced his intent to run for re-election.

The Zanni-Kannan race should be hotly contested, and likely very close. Will there be a third or fourth candidate? Very important question, especially in light of the past political alliance between Mayor Zanni and Councilor Kannan. A candidate from the “conservative” wing (are you listening Al Dinuccio) might find some running room in a primary. What will happen? Let us start by trying to get the candidates on the “Manzi in the Morning” show on WCAP this Wednesday at 10:00 am. Not a debate, but separate appearances, with time for phone calls as well. The invites go out today. I will let you know who accepts, and who does not. Stay tuned. I have embedded the below video from the Eagle Tribune website.

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Manzi in the Morning-Podcast of Sebastian Arcelus Interview

My great thanks to Sebastian Arcelus, who plays Lucas Goodwin on the Netflix monster hit series “House of Cards”, for coming on “Manzi in the Morning” this week on WCAP, 980 on your am dial. We had an opportunity to talk about him, the series, and some very interesting projects he is involved in as a filmmaker and actor. The podcast is below in case you missed it.

https://player.soundcloud.com/player.swf?url=http%3A%2F%2Fapi.soundcloud.com%2Ftracks%2F83286726 Manzi in the Morning March 13 Sebastian Arcelus by Bill Manzi

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Is it the Gas Tax?

With House Speaker Bob Deleo talking about whittling down the Governor’s tax plan, and separating component parts by filing a separate, soon to come transportation bill, there is much speculation on how the Speaker might fund budgetary increases for transportation. The Speaker has indicated that he has issues with an income tax increase so the question comes as to what he might utilize to achieve the necessary revenue increase? Without the income tax there seems to be no where else to turn but to the gas tax.

On the question of what is actually needed for revenue the Governor is talking about $1 billion for transportation. Based on the Speakers comments I made the “guess-estimate” of between $500 and $750 million. Now comes forward Michael Widmer, who gave testimony to the Legislature in which he said that $800 million might do the trick. Widmer arrived at his estimate by looking at the absolutely necessary items mentioned by the Speaker (MBTA deficit, removing DOT employees from the capital budget) along with some additional local funding for regional transit authorities (and forward funding for them) and an increase in Chapter 90. From the State House News Service:

According to Widmer, the $800 million would cover debt-relief for the MBTA; forward-funding and a 50 percent increase for the regional transit authorities; a transfer of all the MBTA and Massachusetts Department of Transportation employees off of the debt-financed capital budget; support for “an ambitious statewide capital program” of roads, bridges and public transit; a $100 million increase of so-called Chapter 90 local road funding; and the devotion of 20 percent of the capital budget to “expansions” and “enhancements.”

With the Speaker eschewing the income tax and looking to get to his revenue number through “user fees” it is fairly clear that the gas tax would have to be in the mix. Widmer talked about how much of an increase would be needed to get to $800 million.

Widmer specifically proposed a phased-in 15-cent increase to the 21-cent gas tax, combined with inflation adjustments to fees and fares, which he said would generate $821 million by 2017. Patrick has singled out the idea of a 15-cent increase in the gas tax as an inadequate fix that he said would force drivers to bear the brunt of the costs.

Widmer said an alternative would be to increase the gas tax by 3 cents per year for three years, while making steeper increases in fees and fares.

My guess is that the lower gas tax would create a politically unpalatable level of rate and fee hikes, with the phased in 15-cent gas tax increase the more likely option of the two, if that ends up being the vehicle chosen by Speaker Deleo.

The push-back from the Governor has been strong, with Transportation Secretary Davies calling for the entire $1 billion that the Governor filed for:

On the spending side, Transportation Secretary Richard Davey said that the Massachusetts Department of Transportation has saved $500 million on efficiencies since the 2009 transportation reform, and said that the MBTA has the lowest overhead of the country’s top-20 transit agencies.

“I don’t think there’s a lot of low hanging fruit left,” Davey said, though he singled out The Ride as a service where efficiencies could be found.

House Transportation Chairman William Straus (D-Mattapoisett) tried and failed to extract a lower revenue number from Davey, asking him, “What’s the level of spending that satisfies the core mission?”

“There are a lot of expansion projects that are not on this list that folks desire,” Davey said in his reply, noting that the so-called “urban ring” of public transit around Metro Boston and the rail connection between North and South stations did not make the cut.

Davey said the money would bring down the percentage of structurally deficient bridges from 8 or 9 percent down to 5 percent, which is manageable, and moving employees off the debt-funded capital budget would free up $250 million for construction projects. While noting changes can be made to project lists, Davey said the administration had worked hard to “whittle down” the transportation plan.

“I was anticipating that was the best I was going to do,” Straus said.

One transportation activist warned lawmakers against under-funding transportation.

“The MassDOT plan has been called ambitious. We do not see it so. As I said before, 91 percent of it is just to fix what we’ve ignored. Truly ambitious plans are like the interstate highway system of the ’50s, or the Boston transportation plan. We’re not talking about that. We’re talking about just a handful of needed and long-ignored priorities,” said Kristina Egan, director of Transportation for Massachusetts. She said, “Don’t be tempted to just build half a bridge or give us half a track. We need to have a whole transportation system.”

To bring the matter into sharper focus the Governor filed a transportation bond bill that puts the projects he prioritized in his budget to the fore, including the Green Line extension, South Coast rail, and the South Station expansion. When asked if the $800 million figure mentioned by Widmer would be sufficient the Governor advocated for the larger package:

“When folks say $800 million, I say show me what you’re talking about spending with that $800 million. What do the people of the Commonwealth get? So far, the only plan on the table is mine,” Patrick said, the bond bill filed later in the day bringing that statement into sharper clarity.

As I have said repeatedly since the Governor filed his package this will not be a simple exercise for the Legislature. Even members that are solidly anti-tax will be faced with diminished infrastructure spending, including the potential elimination of some projects that have wide support, if the revenue package produced is substantially less than the Governor’s recommendation. The Governor is forcing some hard choices on the Legislature, where hard choices are held in the same regard as leprosy.

My original prediction of between $500 million and $750 million still stands, with the amendment that it will be funded with a gas tax increase of 15-cents, (or less if the revenue package is smaller), with fare increases that are put on auto-pilot. Tough choices indeed.

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Manzi in the Morning- House of Cards Edition

Tomorrow will bring us the second broadcast of “Manzi in the Morning” on WCAP 980 am, starting at 10:00 am. I am delighted to be interviewing Sebastian Arcelus, who plays Washington Herald editor Lucas Goodwin in the Netflix series “House of Cards”. I have seen all 13 episodes on Netflix, and look forward to the second season. The series is really a revolutionary change in the way Americans watch TV, and it looks like with this success companies like Netflix will produce more original programming, and possibly hasten the day when consumers are free to (gasp) abandon their cable hookup. Amazon appears to be moving towards original content delivered via the internet, another major player willing to take on the networks and the cable providers.

Of course the success of this series is not guaranteed for future efforts. The quality of this programming is terrific, with Kevin Spacey’s portrayal of Majority Whip Frank Underwood a tour de force. Netflix is spending liberally, with production values the same or better than those found on network or cable programming. Is it time to start selling the stock of the networks short? Not only is new programming coming from the internet, but cable shows like AMC’s “The Walking Dead” are routinely beating the networks in their time slots. A new wave in TV being led by Netflix, and a terrific show that you should check out in “House of Cards.” Have a question about the show you want me to ask? Post it here, or drop it to me via Twitter @billmanzi, or by email at billmanzi1@comcast.net. I will try to ask it. Tune in tomorrow at 10:00 am for some insight into “House of Cards.”

Sebastian Arcelus

Sebastian Arcelus as Lucas Goodwin in House of Cards on Netflix.

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Panic in Detroit

The City of Detroit is careening towards a state appointed receiver, with Michigan Governor Rick Snyder announcing his intent to make that appointment. Mayor Dave Bing has announced that he will not join the City Council in fighting the process, which should help to pave the way for the Governor to make that appointment. Naturally the fight is full throttle, with the locals claiming the move is “undemocratic”, and the Governor and his supporters claiming that the locals have had an opportunity to straighten things out, but have failed to do so.

Detroit’s problems have been a long time in the making. Detroit has experienced severe population loss, going from 1,850,000 residents in 1950 to 714,000 in 2010. Property values have plunged, wide swarths of the City are vacant, with declining revenues constraining the ability to deliver services. In addition Detroit has been subjected to serious cuts in aid from the State of Michigan, which has had its own serious financial issues. The fiscal issues have been boiling for some time, with the City in the grip of a fiscal death spiral, with cuts to the budget leading to less services, more problems, and then more cuts. But the reality is that the locals have turned in, from my distant vantage point, an abysmal performance. No matter the municipality, no matter how bad the fiscal situation, there is always a very strong political force advocating no change to the status quo. No different here. The locals have turned to budgeting tricks that are transparently bad, and have created the showdown with state government. There is no question that state government is not entirely blameless here, but the locals have not been profiles in courage. The state report that led the Governor to issue his call for an emergency manager shows us some of the ugly truth in Detroit’s budget numbers. Some of the lack of local action was highlighted by the State, in the prior mentioned report:

For example, for the year ending June 30, 2010, the human resources apprentice training program exceeded its budget by over $2.3 million, the insurance premium line item exceeded its budget by over $12 million, and the police operations line item exceeded its budget by $15.8 million. Consequently, the general fund had line items that exceeded budgeted amounts, in the aggregate, by almost $58 million. Unaudited 2011 figures indicated that line items amounting to $97 million exceeded their budget, including an excess of $25 million for fire and $44 million for police.

A couple of quick notes: The City appears to have routinely allowed budgeted allocations to be overrun by Departments. They also have included revenue estimates that are largely fictitious. And as annual deficits pile up the corrective action taken has been to simply borrow the funds to paper over the budgets. Not a good idea. Lets look at some of the annual deficits, and the corresponding borrowing:

Year Deficit Debt Proceeds
2005 ($155,404,035) $248,440,183
2006 ($173,678,707) $34,892,659
2007 ($155,575,800) —
2008 ($219,158,138) $75,210,007
2009 ($331,925,012) —
2010 ($155,692,159 $251,663,225
2011 ($196,577,910) —

I don’t care what Party you represent those are not only some bad numbers, but some terrifically bad financial practices. Using capital borrowing to paper over operating deficits is as bad of a budgeting practice as there is.And those operating deficits are pretty hefty, indicating that fair or not budget adjustments MUST be made. In this case either the locals do it, or the State will do it for them. What did the City propose?

The City’s deficit elimination plans and proposed budgets proved to be unrealistic. City officials either had been incapable or unwilling to manage the finances of the City. For example, the 2008 fiscal year deficit elimination plan reported $58 million in expenditure reductions in the general fund and $69 million (excluding debt proceeds and revenue sharing) in revenue enhancements for 2010. However, the 2010 general fund balance ended in a deficit condition of over $155 million and would have been much greater if not for $250 million in new debt. Again, the 2009 deficit elimination plan certified in November of 2010 projected a 2011 surplus while the actual fund balance for the general fund ended with a deficit estimated at close to $200 million. City officials had promised restructuring and consolidation, including hiring freezes and improved tax collection. Finally in mid-2011, City officials submitted a deficit elimination plan for the 2010 deficit which included revenue initiatives of over $200 million and expenditure reductions of over $300 million, most of which were to take place in future periods and were
questionable, such $10 million from selling Windsor tunnel rights and $50 million in improved income tax collections. One version of the deficit elimination plan estimated that the City would be able to realize an additional $154 million annually from collecting income taxes from residents who work outside the City. Projected expenditure reductions relied heavily upon union concessions which had not historically materialized.

I realize that the City has a different point of view than the State, but those facts are pretty damning. What about the City’s bond rating? Not much good news there either. They have fallen below BBB, which is junk status.

Nov 28 (Reuters) – Moody’s Investors Service lowered Detroit’s debt ratings deeper into junk territory on Wednesday and warned there was a higher risk the cash-strapped city could default on bonds or file for bankruptcy.

The credit rating agency, which placed Detroit on review for possible downgrades in June, assigned a negative outlook to the lowered ratings, citing “the rising possibility that the city could file for bankruptcy or default on an obligation over the next 12 to 24 months.”

Moody’s also pointed out that oversight of the city’s finances by the state of Michigan was weakened when voters earlier this month repealed a 2011 law that beefed up the state’s power to aid financially struggling local governments.

Another factor playing into Detroit’s rating woes is its “ongoing inability to implement reforms necessary to regain financial stability,” Moody’s said.

Detroit’s city council has resisted certain reform measures supported by Mayor Dave Bing, state officials and an oversight board. Last week, the nine-member council rejected a contract with law firm Miller Canfield to work on the city’s financial stability deal with the state, which had set the contract as one of the goals Detroit must meet to obtain a $10 million cash infusion this month.

Bing subsequently said the city, which was on track to run out of money by the end of December, would turn to unpaid temporary leaves for workers and other cuts to stop that from happening.

All of that borrowing to pay day to day expenses has of course left the City with a major debt problem. Debt service payments, in 2010, were $597 million, and long term debt, not including unfunded pension and OPEB obligations, total over $8 billion. I dare say that the data show that the Mayor and the City Council have to take some share in the responsibility for not coming forward with a short term stabilization plan, as well as a longer term recovery plan that would include major economic development and growth. I have given short shrift to the City’s position because even with cuts in state aid and some of the other problems involved they could have, and should have, done a better job.

Detroit presents the Governor with a unique set of governance challenges. Taking away responsibility from elected officials, even where some level of malfeasance has been shown, is a serious matter. It is, by definition, undemocratic. Detroit has a resurgent auto industry, and a few other positives to build on. Success will be difficult, but not impossible. Working for an Emergency Manager in Detroit, to produce positive results for the City and its residents, would be a unique opportunity for anyone that loves municipal management. As the state looks to impose financial controls on the City the ball is in the Governor’s court to produce a plan that just does not slash and burn, but produces economic growth and opportunity for Detroit and its people.

Addendum: Today’s New York Times had a story on the poor financial condition of Detroit that reflects on the poor performance of the locals.

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Lynch-Markey Joint SEIU Appearance

Congressman Steve Lynch and Congressman Ed Markey are making a joint appearance at SEIU this morning in Dorchester. The live feed of that event is here.

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Manzi in the Morning- Councilor Jamie Atkinson

The third installment of the first “Manzi in the Morning” on WCAP 980 AM had Methuen City Councilor Jamie Atkinson on the show. Councilor Atkinson announced that he is a candidate for re-election, and talked about some of the important issues facing Methuen, including Information Technology. Thanks to Councilor Atkinson for taking the time to call into the show.

https://player.soundcloud.com/player.swf?url=http%3A%2F%2Fapi.soundcloud.com%2Ftracks%2F82431355 Manzi in the Morning March 6 Councilor Atkinson by Bill Manzi

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