Run Government as a Business????

The Atlantic ran a pretty good story on government called, “Government Should Run Like a Business—but Not in the Way You Think.” Eric Schnurer has written a piece that provokes some thought, and got quite a bit of commentary from folks reading the piece online. I bring the comments up because they are a bit discouraging. But more on them later. Schnurer first lays out the case for even making the comparison of government and business, arguing that new delivery models, constant need for innovation, and competition make both government and business continually vulnerable.

At some point, all entities need a demand for their services, to deliver those services at a level of quality that maintains that demand, to respond to innovation and competition by improving them for the times, and to do it with the resources they can command by performing those functions. Any entity that ignores these realities will eventually “go out of business” — whether or not it’s a business.

Schnurer points to many of the failed municipalities as proof of the “going out of business” comparison. I am not sure I am buying into the point entirely, but it is true that failure to adapt, innovate, or become more efficient is a prescription for failure in either case. But government, even in bankruptcy, cannot go out of business.

So what are the business principles that Schnurer thinks are important?

To make government work in the 21st century requires the same basic “business plan” as in any other failing, but potentially still viable, enterprise:

First, resize it to current realities — stop the bleeding, cut the fat, and get the existing operation on stable footing. Then, start thinking about the future — or, more accurately, the present that’s already arrived while the enterprise remained stuck in the past;

Redesign the business, its products, services, and organization, to meet current and future demand — you wouldn’t keep selling buggy whips if people wanted cars. And then,

Redefine and reposition the enterprise to compete effectively against new competitors and in whole new markets.

Right off the bat he steps into the breach, going right to the “resize” issue. I don’t believe Schnurer intends the piece to be a rehashing of the conservative/liberal split on the appropriate size of government, but rather an appeal to “efficiency”. If in fact we are going to spend taxpayer dollars on defense our management should prevent the purchase of $2,000 hammers. He gets to the reality of that later in the piece:

Consider for a moment what is “waste” (and its cousins, “fraud” and “abuse”). Many people apply this term to virtually any government program with which they disagree. For instance, a liberal may view military spending as “waste” while a conservative might think the same of giving money to a homeless person. We’ll use the term “waste” in a different and more precise sense: money that isn’t being spent for its intended purpose. However one feels about defense spending, defense dollars shouldn’t be spent on gold toilet seats, as the National Performance Review under Vice President Al Gore found they were, and whatever one thinks of welfare, welfare dollars shouldn’t be spent on ineligible services, as various federal reviews have found to be the case with as much as 40 percent of Medicaid spending.

He uses the word waste. I prefer efficiency. Call it what you will, it is entirely separate from the policy choices that so divide us as a nation. Before he goes slightly off the tracks, in my opinion, Schnurer gets to the exactly correct point.

That’s because, in turning around a troubled enterprise, the first thing to do is to stop the hemorrhaging. That doesn’t mean you start hacking away at the enterprise indiscriminately, or just blow it up. You want to attack the problem strategically, starting with purely wasteful spending that can be eliminated without hurting operations — in fact, eliminating waste will actually help operations.

That point should be something that we all agree with. Why should anyone prefer to spend governmental money inefficiently? Nominally nobody does. But in reality there is usually a built in, politically strong, opposition to governmental efficiency. Schnurer, after building the case for efficiency, then veers over to the fact that people want more government than they are willing to pay for, and also that a complete elimination of waste would not solve our fiscal problems. Absolutely correct on the latter, probably correct on the former. But is it not discouraging to ask people for higher taxes, even when really needed, when there are glaring examples of governmental waste and profligacy? Schnurer does not get to that, but it is a good piece, with a promise of more to come. I look forward to those.

In the final analysis government is not a business, and strictly speaking cannot be run like one. But sound business principles can be applied to government in order to increase efficiency, and do more with less. As mentioned earlier there are powerful forces arrayed against efficiency in government, and those forces are willing to fight hard against change. And when that fight does come the rules are not generally Marquess of Queensberry. Government at all levels, especially local, have much that can be done today to improve efficiency. From my vantage point I have seen resistance to reform from both left and right, with nobody having a monopoly on virtue. It just depends on whose ox is being gored. Entrenched anti-reform politics is aided by the political divisions within the electorate, with slogans and invective taking the place of governing and reason. When you read the comments at the end of the Schnurer piece you will get that notion firsthand. An efficiency in government article becomes subsumed in a right/left argument. Surprising? No. Disappointing: Absolutely.

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Manzi in the Morning- Linda Soucy Interview

I was very pleased to have Linda Soucy of the Methuen Arlington Neighborhood on the show this past week to talk about the progress made in our neighborhood through the efforts of MAN, and also to talk about the big Golf Tournament coming up on June 10th. Looking to play in the Tournament? Give us a call at 978-691-5645.

http://yourlisten.com/swf/Player.swf?id=16983710

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Shedding OPEB Through ObamaCare

There is plenty to write about within the broad subject of municipal finance, pension obligations, and “Other Post Employment Benefits”(OPEB), which are primarily health care costs for retirees. While pension costs have at least (nominally in many cases)been addressed by creating “full funding” schedules that attempt to solve the problem of huge unfunded pension liabilities, OPEB remains an actuarial nightmare, with billions in unfunded liability now on the books due to the health care commitments made to municipal and state retirees. In all of the highly distressed cities we have written about in the last week the unfunded OPEB liabilities have become a huge issue. They now take center stage in Chicago, where Mayor Rahm Emanuel is looking to shed those costs entirely by moving retirees into ObamaCare. From the Chicago Tribune:

Mayor Rahm Emanuel plans to start reducing health insurance coverage next year for more than 30,000 retired city workers and begin shifting them to President Barack Obama’s new federal system.

The move is aimed at saving the city money and comes as the Emanuel administration has been trying to wrangle significant pension cost concessions from employee unions.

The details are found in a letter the city plans to send to retirees this week.

Still getting health insurance: Police officers and firefighters who retired between the ages of 55 and 64 and are not yet eligible for Medicare but whose coverage is guaranteed under union contracts, as well as workers who retired before August 1989 and are protected by a legal settlement.

Cut out as of Jan. 1 will be the rest. That’s when the city will begin a three-year phase out of the coverage, according to the letter signed by Comptroller Amer Ahmad. During that period, premiums, deductibles and benefits could change, the letter states.

Once the phase-out is complete, those retired workers would have to pay for their own health insurance or get subsidizes under the Affordable Care Act, known as Obamacare. The city-subsidized coverage is particularly important to retired workers who aren’t yet eligible for Medicare, as opposed to those 65 or older who use the subsidies for Medicare supplemental insurance.

Chicago is faced with some numbers that are staggering for retiree health care. They have made some pretty poor labor deals, in particular with public safety unions, that have made the situation worse. The bill for Chicago this year was $109 million for retiree health care, with a projection that the number would balloon to over $540 million within ten years. The Tribune story also pointed to the City’s four pension funds having an unfunded liability of $20 billion, but that is a story for another day, as the Mayor is waging another battle with labor over that issue. Labor pushed back on the Mayor, who certainly is not on the Christmas Card list of Chicago’s unions these days.

Chicago Fraternal Order of Police First Vice President Bill Dougherty said the city’s projections for future cost of health care are too high.

Dougherty called the mayor’s plan “a poor decision” and suggested that it should in no way be linked to negotiatoins over pension changes. “The mayor has shown that he likes to play games on different levels, and we’re not interested in doing that,” Dougherty said.

Will movement of municipal employees and retirees to ObamaCare become a tool for mayors to shed costs, and large future liabilities? Mayor Emanuel has made the first move. Will others follow? A link to the Chicago study of retiree health care is below, and that report is the basis of the move by the Mayor.

Chicago Retiree Health Care Commission Findings and Recommendations.

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Panic in Detroit Part Two

The Emergency Manager in Detroit, Kevyn Orr, just released his first report as E.M., painting a bleak picture of Detroit’s current financial status.This report was mandatory, with Orr going through some of the details found in his very short tenure on the job so far. What the E.M. reported was pretty dire, with the City of Detroit “insolvent” no matter how you care to measure that term. What exactly did he report? He gave a numbers rundown, which showed how Detroit has simply papered over its problems for the past five or so years. But the E.M. doesn’t just delve into numbers, because running a City is not just about reading a spreadsheet. It is about providing critical services to residents. Kevyn Orr recognized that in his report, and did not just talk about cutting, but also spoke of the need to invest in things that have been broken for years. But that “investment” will not be made into existing systems, but will come with hard management changes, including privatizations, that will change the face of how Detroit is managed. For those that have launched objections to a “state takeover” I say that you should have put your house in order before calamity struck. How bad is it? Let’s lift the hood with the E.M.

Detroit has been running deficits for years. But rather than face those deficits the City has chosen to borrow money through bond offerings to paper over debt. I am not familiar with Michigan state law when it comes to municipal bonding but I would have to say that for Michigan to allow these borrowings is flat out bad policy. That does not even begin to speak of the insanity of the bond lenders, whose bad judgement will now be rewarded by a haircut, likely a major one. From the E.M. report, we see the extent of the financial problems, and the papering over of debt.

Excluding proceeds from debt issuances, the City’s expenditures have exceeded revenues from fiscal year 2008 to fiscal year 2012 by an average of $100 million annually. These financial shortfalls have been addressed with long‐term debt issuances (e.g., $75 million in fiscal year 2008, $250 million in fiscal year 2010 and $137 million in fiscal year 2013) and by deferring payments of certain City obligations,such as contributions to the City’s two pension funds.The accumulated unrestricted deficit was $326.6 million at the end of fiscal year 2012. Fiscal year 2013 (year ending June 30, 2013) is currently projected to add approximately $60 million to the accumulated unrestricted deficit balance(excluding the impact of the $137 million debt issuance).

Pretty bad numbers just in that paragraph, but there is more to come. One of the ways to determine insolvency is through cash flows, and whether you have enough cash on hand to maintain yourself as a going concern. Detroit, today, does not. From the report:

The City had negative cash flows of $115.5 million in fiscal year 2012 (year ended June 30, 2012)and borrowed a total of $80 million from Bank of America in March 2012 (of which $50 million was drawn by the General Fund) to avoid running out of cash. The City is projecting negative cash flows of approximately $90 million in fiscal year 2013 and would run out of cash by year‐end if not for (i) the deferral of payments for City obligations, including pension contributions,and (ii) the receipt of proceeds from the escrow account established as part of the $137 million August 2012 bond refinancing transaction, disbursements from which are controlled by the State.
As of April 26, 2013, the City had actual cash on hand of $64 million but had current obligations of $226 million to other funds and entities in the form of loans, property tax distributions, and deferred pension contributions and other payments. Therefore, the City’s net cash position was actually negative $162 million as of April 26, 2013. The City has been deferring, and will need to continue to defer, payments on its current obligations in order to avoid running out of cash…….The City of Detroit continues to incur expenditures in excess of revenues despite cost
reductions and proceeds from long‐term debt issuances. In other words, Detroit spends more than it takes in – it is clearly insolvent on a cash flow basis.

So the City is not able to stay afloat, except by not paying its bills. The E.M. uses the term insolvent. Take note of the pension deferrals, as those will at some point become a major issue. (FY 2013 pension deferral will be $108 million, after paying $31 million into the fund). Unfunded pension liability? Over a half billion dollars, measured with existing actuarial and financial assumptions, but likely to be much higher when those assumptions are updated. But that is chicken feed compared to the unfunded OPEB obligations, which stand at $5.7 billion, mostly for retiree health care. Why worry about that now? From the report:

During fiscal year 2013, in order to make current annual required contributions and repay prior year deferred pension contributions, the General Fund would have had to make aggregate pension contributions of approximately $139 million, which together with healthcare benefit payments (approximately $200 million), total approximately $339 million (33% of fiscal year 2013 revenues, excluding the impact of debt issuance). Annual payments on account of these legacy liabilities are expected to increase in the future if no action is taken to mitigate them.

33% of total revenues for those two items alone. How about other debt?

The City has obligations totaling at least $15 billion, including General Fund debt ($1.1 billion),
enterprise fund debt ($6.0 billion), Pension Obligation Certificates (“POCs”) and related derivative instruments ($1.8 billion), …..

That is one big hole. Orr talks about the lack of capital investment stifling productivity, about a City operation to produce and sell electricity that loses money and is in need of major capital investment, and all of the operational reviews needed of city departments. In order to produce results Orr will be forced to seek major restructuring, and all stakeholders will be impacted negatively. Orr is holding the potential for a Chapter 9 filing in his pocket, but you have to think he may have to pull that card eventually. An editorial in the Detroit News put it in pretty straightforward terms.

What Orr needs residents, employees and creditors to wake up to is the reality that this crisis can’t simply be managed away. Orr used the word “insolvent” in his report for a reason: Detroit can’t keep operating unless drastic changes are put in place.

“We can’t cut enough” to balance the budget, Orr said. “We have to negotiate with stakeholders.”

For Detroiters, that means accepting that certain services will be delivered in a different way, likely by private contractors, and many of the jewels they’ve been so possessive of will either be sold or transferred into regional authorities.

Employee unions must recognize that additional concessions are necessary. Detroit can’t afford to keep promises made in the past.

If pensions can’t be touched under state law, then the savings will have to come from retiree health care benefits. Current workers will likely see far less generous benefits when they retire. Those unions that haven’t participated in past rounds of pay cuts must get on board.

If the E.M. is forced into Chapter 9 the same type of battle will open between bondholders and city pensioners as we are seeing in Stockton and San Bernadino Califormnia. But Detroit is much larger, and the battle will be on a grander scale. Emergency Manager Orr has a very difficult task, both financially and operationally. Will he avoid Chapter 9? The odds are stacked against him. More to come.

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calPERS Lays Out the Issues

Since I posted on the Stockton and San Bernadino bankruptcy cases yesterday I have bumped into a video produced by calPERS that gives the viewpoint they hold on those cases. As I mentioned yesterday these cases may produce groundbreaking law on pensions and municipal debt, with all of the stakeholders getting ready for a pretty tough fight. calPERS will be throwing considerable resources into that fight.

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Municipal Bankruptcy: Pensions, Bonds and Big Stakes in California

California has had two major municipal bankruptcies in the past year, and both are being watched very closely by “interested parties” throughout the country. Novel legal issues are at stake in both Stockton and San Bernadino, with federal bankruptcy judges likely to issue rulings that will have significant ramifications for public pensions as well as the municipal bond market.

The question of what happened to these two cities before bankruptcy is a critical one, but not where we are going to start. Both cities have filed for federal bankruptcy protection, and both have had opposition to those filings. Within those filings lay some difficult legal questions that ultimately will be determined by federal bankruptcy courts.

Stockton has continued to pay its pension obligations (to calPERS), leading bondholders to file in opposition to that city’s bankruptcy petition. San Bernadino, on the other hand, stopped its pension payments (to calPERS), which has led to calPERS creating significant legal obstacles for the City, including strong opposition to the bankruptcy filing. As of this date a federal judge has allowed Stockton to proceed into federal bankruptcy protection over the objection of bondholders, while San Bernadino has not as of yet been approved for the same. The consensus appears to be that Stockton has been better managed through the bankruptcy process, with the City Manager asserting control over the process, and delivering results. But the legal positioning, placing bondholders and calPERS on a collision course, will not be solved by good management. Ben Feder of the “Bankruptcy Law Insights Blog” summed up the legal issues involved in that battle:

“The issues at stake — whether California state laws protecting public employee pension obligations are pre-empted and superseded by Congress’s Article I, Section 8 authority to establish uniform laws regarding bankruptcy, or are protected under the Tenth Amendment — implicate fundamental issues of federalism, and in all likelihood the Supreme Court will eventually need to resolve the questions being raised regarding the proper balance between state and federal power … .

“The [most] complicated question is whether priorities for unsecured claims created under state law — particularly regarding obligors that are themselves governmental units — can trump the distribution mechanisms of the U.S. Bankruptcy Code, and the Code’s underlying purpose of providing similar treatment for similarly situated creditors. Numerous states in addition to California have varying degrees of protection for public employee pension obligations. (Rhode Island, on the other hand, recently took the opposite tack and enacted a law that gave priority to bondholders in the Central Falls Chapter 9 cases.)

“Calpers will argue that the preference under California law for public employee< pension obligations is protected under the Tenth Amendment. San Bernardino’s bond investors will argue that the Bankruptcy Code expressly sets forth the priority of certain types of unsecured claims, that no other unsecured claims are entitled to more favorable treatment, and that California law regarding public employee pension obligations is pre-empted by the Supremacy Clause of the Constitution.”

And so the battle is joined, with calPERS, if you judge by the rulings, appearing to have the upper hand. San Bernadino has added to that perception by filing an FY 14 budget that will begin paying calPERS again. The full FY13 obligation of San Bernadino to calPERS is $25.5 million, 21% of total revenue for the City. No word from the City on how they plan to pay back the arrears, which could total over $15 million by the time they start paying into the fund again. That obligation is going to be vigorously contested, as calPERS will attempt to prevent the City from entering bankruptcy and applying a haircut to that unpaid pension obligation.

The decision in the case of Stockton, to allow the City to proceed into Chapter 9 bankruptcy proceedings, has been analyzed by many, with all looking to read the tea leaves as to what Judge Christopher Klein really thought about the ultimate status of calPERS. Many who are looking to the federal bankruptcy proceedings to bring “pension reform” to Stockton were encouraged by some of the verbiage in Judge Klein’s ruling. Some of the reports I read claim that Judge Klein, in his decision, referred to calPERS as a “garden variety creditor.” That is simply not true, and it is a very important point.The Judge pointed out that one of the objectors would like to classify calPERS in that fashion. Judge Klein highlighted some of the financial issues that compelled Stockton to seek Chapter 9 protection, and he did not exempt pension practices.

And some of the problems were also rooted in generous retirement practices. The pensions, of course, are
themselves a form of implicit compensation. Pensions were allowed to be based on the final year of compensation, and
only the final year of compensation, and that compensation could include essentially an unlimited accrued vacation and sick leave. So it was possible to engage in the phenomenon that’s become known as “pension spiking,” in which a pension can wind up being substantially greater than the annual salary that the retiree ever had. And there’s been a number of those situations that have come into public view,generally, not entirely from Stockton, as part of a debate
that seems to be going on in the larger community. In any event, pension spiking was an issue in Stockton because Stockton’s obligations to CalPERS were based on the amount of pensions that were having to be paid out. So projected pension expenses in particular were soaring.

So Judge Klein recognized that poor pension practices were part of the problem. Judge Klein also took note of the some of the pension changes made through modifications to existing collective bargaining agreements that benefited the City through the mandatory pre-Chapter 9 mediation process. That process was ignored by bondholders, which ultimately undercut their legal position in opposition to Chapter 9 for the City. But what did he say about the Stockton obligation to calPERS, and the position of bondholders (more specifically bond insurers) that the City ought to immediately haircut this obligation?

This does not mean that there’s not potentially a serious issue involving CalPERS. But at this point, I do
not know what that is. I do not know whether spiked pensions can be reeled back in. There are very complex and difficult questions of law that I could see out there on the horizon, but no plan of adjustment can be confirmed unless — no plan of adjustment can be confirmed over the rejection by a particular class unless that plan does not discriminate unfairly and is fair and equitable with respect to each class of claims that is impaired under or has not
accepted a plan. That’s section 1129(b)(1) of the Bankruptcy Code, which, by virtue of section 901, applies in
chapter 9 cases. So the protection for the Capital Market Creditors is in the plan confirmation process. If a plan is proposed that does not deal with CalPERS and if the Capital Market Creditors reject their treatment under the proposed plan, then I will have to focus on the question of unfair discrimination. And the gravamen of the argument that the Capital Markets Creditors make is one of unfair discrimination. But that is not an eligibility question to be a problem at this stage of the case. To the contrary, it is a plan confirmation problem. And the City is going to have a difficult time confirming a plan over an objection and claim of unfair discrimination without being able to explain that problem away. And that problem is probably going to require me to get down into the nitty-gritty of the CalPERS situation. And I, at this point, have no clue how that’s going to come out, but that is the protection.

(emphasis added)

So Judge Klein acknowledges the difficult legal issues involved with attempts to modify the City obligation to calPERS. Judge Klein had made a strong point in his decision to highlight the legal principle that federal bankruptcy proceedings are all about modifying contractual obligations, and certainly supersede state law:

….what chapter 9 brings to the table that is not in state law is the exclusive power of the Congress under the Constitution to make uniform laws concerning bankruptcy. And uniform laws concerning bankruptcy mean impairment of contracts. The contracts clause of the United States Constitution says that no state may make a law impairing the obligation of contracts. And that limitation does not apply to Congress. And, for the reasons I explained in that decision, the asymmetry is absolutely intentional on the part of the founders, the framers of the Constitution, because bankruptcy is nothing but the impairment of contracts. I’ve been doing this job for more than 25 years. I’ve had more than 138,000 bankruptcy cases. I’ve been party to impairment of millions of contracts and it’s all constitutional. And I explained in that decision also that a parallel contracts clause in the state constitution must give way to the Bankruptcy Code, to the power of the Congress under the Supremacy Clause of the Constitution;
perfectly straightforward, garden variety constitutional law proposition.

For those on either side of this issue to cite Judge Klein’s decision to allow Stockton to go forward into Chapter 9 as a victory would simply be, in my opinion, overly optimistic. It is the beginning of the process, and these issues are complex and not easy to untangle. One thing that comes through to me, after reading the decision, is the victory by Stockton City Manager Bob Deis, who produced the complex documents and plans necessary to get Stockton into Chapter 9. A thoroughly professional job. A second item of note is the poor legal work of lawyers representing bond insurers. The Judge was not overly impressed with their arguments as to why Stockton should be stopped from entering Chapter 9, and their position on mandatory mediation badly undercut their own position.

The last issue to be discussed in this overly long post is the modification, by Stockton, of payments by the City to fund retiree health care costs. The City, in its pendency plan, modified (lowered or eliminated)payments for retiree health care costs. The retirees sought injunctive relief from the terms of the City plan before Judge Klein, who ruled last year that the City could in fact move forward with the modification(s), denying the petition for relief. The retirees will have to participate in the Chapter 9 proceedings in order to protect this claim, but it should be noted that the legal argument that these collective bargaining contracts will be sacrosanct in a federal bankruptcy proceeding did not hold up in an initial legal test. (Association of Retired Employees of the City of Stockton v. City of Stockton).

Lots more to come on these very important cases. While each state is different (Chapter 9 allowed by some and not others)there will be critical legal issues determined by federal bankruptcy judges that will likely end up before the Supreme Court. Those determinations will have some major impacts not just on the legal status of pension obligations but on municipal bond markets as well.

The three page Stockton restructuring proposal here.

The full Stockton restructuring plan submitted through mediation. (File 1 of 3)

Stockton Restructuring Proposal submitted through mediation. (File 2 of 3)

Stockton restructuring proposal submitted through mediation (File 3 of 3).

San Bernadino Press Release on Stopping Payments to calPERS.

City of San Bernadino Pendency Plan.

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Manzi in the Morning- Bryan Sweet Interview

Bryan Sweet came on the show to talk about his announcement that he is a candidate for Methuen School Committee. That race should be interesting, as term limits and voluntary departures will create a large number of openings. Bryan has been a member of the High School Building Committee since its inception, as well as being the Chair of the local Democratic Town Committee. He is a first time candidate, and brings great talent and caring about our school children to the race. I hope we will be able to host a forum for the School Committee candidates on WCAP. More on that later. My thanks to Bryan Sweet for taking the time to come on.

http://yourlisten.com/swf/Player.swf?id=16981466

Posted in Manzi in the Morning, Merrimack Valley Politics, Methuen, WCAP Podcast | Tagged , , , | Leave a comment

Manzi in the Morning- Phil Lahey

Phil Lahey, the host of the cable access show “The Empty Chair” came on the radio program this week to talk about addiction, the very real pain caused when a family member suffers from this disease, his own experience with his daughter who became addicted to narcotics, and the support available to both addicts and family members. Phil has a real world perspective on this problem, and his show is a must see. It is produced right here at the studios of Methuen Community T.V., and is available on You Tube.The show has a facebook page , and Phil is available to talk to folks who might be able to benefit from his experience. The show features his daughter Colleen, and is a great personal story of success in the long fight against addiction. My thanks to Phil Lahey for taking the time to come on the show.

http://yourlisten.com/swf/Player.swf?id=16980774

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Suffolk Polling on MA Senate- Markey Leads

Suffolk pollster David Paleologos has tonight released his first MA Senate poll, and it shows a substantial lead for Democrat Ed Markey over Republican Gabriel Gomez.From the Suffolk press release:

“Ed Markey begins this race where he left off with his win in the Democratic Primary: exceeding expectations,” said David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center in Boston. “The early perception immediately after the party primaries was that Markey was vulnerable. These findings suggest the opposite of a close race – that Ed Markey begins the sprint to June with a large lead over his Republican opponent who voters are unsure about.”

I had done a posting on a PPP survey that had Markey with a 4 point lead right after the primary election, but Paleologos shows a substantially different race. Lets look at some of the numbers.

Markey shows up with a 53% favorable rating, with 30% unfavorable, substantially better than the PPP poll. Gomez is at 38% favorable, 23% unfavorable, and a large 32% undecided. Markey will be attempting to mold that 32% by defining Gomez with some early money.

In the head to head match-up Markey leads Gomez by a 52% to 35% margin, with 11% undecided. I am a little surprised to see that margin this early, and it certainly is a bad omen for Gomez. Some other interesting numbers that will have some bearing on this race: (or I just found them interesting)

President Obama has a 67% favorable rating in Massachusetts. The next time you hear Ed Markey say he wants to go to the U.S. Senate to promote President Obama’s agenda think of that number.

The survey asked who the respondent would vote for if they were in the booth today. That number of course does not count the leaners that the main question includes. Those numbers show a 27% to 22% lead for Markey, with 45% undecided. If Gomez was looking for a shred of hope maybe that number could give him some, but I would not be filled with optimism (based on these numbers) if I were Gomez.

Another interesting question that may merit additional discussion, is the perception of Markey’s independence. Paleologos asked: “As a U.S. Senator, do you think Ed Markey will be an independent voice or
toe the Democratic party line?” 58% said Markey would toe the party line, 29% said independent voice, and 14% were undecided. As we look at the Sanford win in South Carolina, and the looming win for Ed Markey in Massachusetts it appears that Washington may in fact be a better reflection of the electorate than we would all like to admit. Only 29% believe Ed Markey is an “independent voice”, but he is on the verge of a big win. We move ever closer to a de facto parliamentary system.

The so called “peoples pledge” was an important issue for 71% of the respondents, with 48% rating it as “very important”. Another tool in the Markey arsenal, and one that you will be hearing much more about in the days and weeks ahead.

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Upsizing the Rockingham Casino

The Eagle Tribune carried a story this week talking about Millennium Gaming’s plan to create a larger casino at Rockingham Park that would include restaurants and even a concert facility that would seat 1500. With the New Hampshire Senate having passed a casino bill (SB152) that makes licensing contingent on an investment of $425 million it might appear to some that the existing requirement would suffice to build a “destination” casino. But a look at the “fine print” of that bill has shown otherwise, as the $425 million requirement includes deductions for “land acquisition” and “infrastructure costs”, as well as a full deduction for the $80 million license fee. After deducting the $80 million the requirement comes down to $345 million, less land acquisition and infrastructure. In reality, under this legislation, the casino mandate could drop as low as $250 million, which would be no more than an expensive slots parlor. I have had Daniel Barrick, of the New Hampshire Center for Public Policy Studies on my WCAP Radio Program to talk about this issue, and what the size of a casino might mean for post-construction jobs. The report issued by the Center discussed the issue:

Current legislation (SB 152) requires a minimum $425 million investment. However, as detailed earlier, the $80m license fee can be subtracted from that amount, for a net minimum investment of $345 million. In addition, the legislation also allows developers to include the cost of purchasing or leasing land for the casino site in their total investment. But assuming a $345 million investment, we would expect to see approximately 1,700 jobs, according to the estimated relationship between investment and staffing. Whether these jobs are “new” jobs is a matter of debate. Economists have examined expanded gambling as an economic development strategy, as well as a state revenue generator. The Federal Reserve Bank of Boston was asked to study this question in 2006, and found that the local
economic benefit of having a casino is likely to be quite small, and depends almost entirely on whether the casino is truly attracting “new” economic activity into the local area surrounding the casino, beyond the goods and services demanded by the casino itself.

I also discussed the issue with Jim Rubens, the Chair of the Granite State Coalition Against Expanded Gambling, when he appeared on my show. Rubens highlighted the same issue, as well as a few others, in his appearance. With the investment requirement of SB152 clearly deficient Millennium has stepped up to answer the criticism by proposing the “upsize” highlighted in the Tribune story. The new number unveiled by Millennium is $600 million, with additions of a hotel, theater, and restaurants. Whether that $600 million is “casino investment”, or total investment, is not clear to me, although Millennium did a public presentation at Rockingham Park on the new plan. As you might expect Jim Rubens has criticized the new plan, but has also raised some important questions in a press release issued by the Granite State Coalition. From his press release:

Over the past two weeks, the special House casino committee has closely examined SB152, the casino bill written by lobbyists for Las Vegas-based Millennium Gaming. Skepticism about the bill among even pro-casino legislators has mounted to the point where Millennium is being forced to make yet loftier promises, today that it will spend $600 million on its proposed Salem casino.”Casino developers consistently overpromise delivery dates, casino amenities, tax revenue, and regulatory compliance to get casinos legalized and to win licenses,” said Jim Rubens, chair of Granite State Coalition Against Expanded Gambling. “If Millennium and its lobbyists want to overcome the skepticism, they should write the promises into their bill.”

So Rubens calls for SB152 to be amended to change the required investment to the $600 million, in line with the new Millennium commitment. But he also gets to that other key point: will the investment number be less the offsets allowed by SB152 (License fee, land acquisition, infrastructure)? From the Coalition press release:

…disclose the infrastructure and site acquisition cost deducts from the promised $600 million (Millennium paid $200 million for the derelict Meadows race track site)

There is political momentum with the pro-casino forces, who have won a local referendum in Salem, and have Governor Hassan pushing hard for this legislation. Despite that momentum passage in the New Hampshire House remains an open question, with the vote looking too close to call. If the pro-casino political operation that was surprised by the opposition of a sitting Attorney General of New Hampshire at the Senate hearing for SB152 is in charge of House passage then maybe the anti-casino forces have a real shot at victory. One thing we know for sure: There is no LBJ in that pro-casino group.

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