JP Morgan took a look, back in May, at some metrics with regards to state pension and OPEB liabilities, called “ARC and the Covenants 2.0.” An interesting exercise, with some key data across all 50 states, with a highlight on the 6 states with some major pension and OPEB funding problems. Those six states? Illinois, as expected, stands at the top, followed by New Jersey, Connecticut, Hawaii, Kentucky, and Massachusetts. The study looks at the underfunded amount for each state, and gives some methodology by which each State could close the gap on a 30 year amortization schedule (assuming 6% return.) The potential solutions, including tax increases, non pension (OPEB) spending cuts, and increased employee contributions, are difficult, especially with the ratios that exist in the top 4 states. Hawaii and Massachusetts show numbers that could be managed (spending cuts vs tax increases) but that are still politically unpalatable. JP Morgan did not look at municipalities as part of this exercise. With the political problems attendant to facing this problem head on it is not surprising that in some states the problem continues to grow. When municipal liabilities are factored in, especially OPEB, the story likely gets much worse.
Perlstein’s effort, the third installment of his series, is an informative and insightful look at the fall of Nixon, as well as the incipient rise of Ronald Reagan. Perlstein manages to gives us that look without just focusing on politics, but including the social issues that dominated the times, and weaving those events into his narrative. That might not be attractive to all, but I liked it, as it brings a fuller picture of what was on the minds of voters as political events unfolded. How political figures leverage those events to make their cases is often times forgotten when we look at the relative success (or failures) of the politicians of the day.
As with both of the prior books there are references that show that some of our politics have not changed much over the years. Are the immigration debates new? I don’t think so.
“President Ford implored, “We can afford to be generous to refugees” as “a matter of principle.” Mayor Daley of Chicago responded, “Charity begins at home.” The Seattle City Council voted seven to one against a pro-settlement resolution. California governor Jerry Brown said Congress’s refugee bill should be amended with a “jobs for Americans first” pledge. Explained Harvard sociologist David Riesman, “The national mood is poisonous and dangerous and this is one symptom—striking out at helpless refugees whose number is infinitesimal.”
Perlstein takes ground on Nixon that we have been over before, but it fits this story. The story evolves into the massive Ford/Reagan battle for the GOP nomination in 1976, with great detail on how that overall race developed. We even get a good peek at the rise of Jimmy Carter on the Democratic side. Perlstein focuses heavily on the GOP, and gives some great insight on how Ronald Reagan had superior political instincts, rejecting the standard advice given by advisors to great, and positive effect. (Reagan never condemned Nixon on Watergate when most of his own people wished he would)
We all know how that Ford/Reagan nomination battle ended, and that is where Perlstein ends this story. Reagan’s loss brought out the Reagan naysayers, who underestimated his political appeal from the very start. After the loss many wrote him off, but his story was just beginning. Perlstein gives, to me, an unvarnished view of how Reagan managed to achieve his success, even in defeat. He gently mocks the left for not understanding Reagan’s appeal, while showing us the “tricks” of Reagan’s trade.
As with the other two books I give this one high ratings, and enjoyed reading it very much. It is over 800 pages so it will not be for everyone, but for those interested in this era it is a great read!
Congratulations to Seabrook Police Detective Donny Chase, who was recently recognized by Chief Michael Gallagher and the Seabrook Board of Selectmen upon his retirement after thirty years of service to the people of Seabrook. Thank you Detective Chase for a great career.
Muhammad Ali has passed. As a boxer his achievements were staggering, but his force of personality and personal charisma brought him status that far exceeded boxing, making him a worldwide icon. Although Ali today is beloved it was not always so, as he stood up for what he believed, and became one of the flash points of change in American society, refusing to be inducted into the U.S. Armed Forces due to his religious beliefs, splitting American public opinion over his cause and beliefs. That split was reflective of the changes occurring in the United States in the politically charged Vietnam era, and it spilled over into the boxing ring.
Ali, known then as Cassius Clay, took on a fearsome champion, Charles “Sonny” Liston in 1964 for the heavyweight championship. Ali was 22, and Liston was one of the heaviest punchers ever seen in the division. Ali’s combination of foot and hand speed befuddled Liston, who would not get off his stool to start the seventh round. The very next day Ali announced his conversion to Islam, starting a personal and boxing journey that left a huge footprint, in America and the world.
When Ali refused induction into the U.S. Armed Forces as a conscientious objector he was stripped of his title and refused a boxing license. His absence of 3.5 years, in the prime of his career, not only robbed us of watching a man at the peak of his abilities but caused him financial hardship, and brought into question whether his boxing skills would still be there if and when he returned. When the U.S. Supreme Court ruled, unanimously, in Ali’s favor on the draft question he readied a return. When he entered the ring against undefeated champion Joe Frazier it was two undefeated champions facing off for the first time. That fight, billed as “the fight of the century” was so much more than a boxing match. Fans split along racial and political lines in choosing who to root for, with the more “conservative’ folks lining up with Frazier, with pre-fight discussions on the relative merits of the fighters often spilling into other non-boxing areas. Ali, as always, created a firestorm with his anti-Frazier tirades, building gate and interest, but creating scars on Frazier that never quite healed. Despite administering to Frazier one of the worst beatings I have ever seen in a boxing ring Ali lost the fight, as Frazier would just not stop coming, knocking Ali down in the 15th round with a savage left hook. Ali got right up, but both men left a little piece of themselves in the ring that night.
Ali regained his title with a shocking KO of George Foreman in Zaire, Africa, deploying some of the same verbal tactics against Foreman that he used on Frazier. And he fought an epic third battle with Frazier, the “Thrilla in Manila” in which both men were totally spent by the end of the fight, an Ali victory by TKO. Both men, at that point, were effectively finished as boxers, having left every last bit of themselves in that ring in Manila. Ali and Frazier, in a boxing sense, will be forever linked. They both showed heart and courage beyond any reasonable expectation.
Ali left boxing, but he never left the worldwide stage, even with Parkinson’s disease. And as we say goodbye to him it is fair to say that for some of us the world will never be the same without him. He stood up when it would have been so much easier to sit down. He entertained, but he also taught. He left a footprint so large that it cannot be forgotten, as an athlete, and as a man. RIP Muhammad Ali.
The Seabrook Fire Department cut the ribbon on a brand new state of the art dispatch center this past week. Our thanks to Todd Williams of TCS Communications, the lead contractor on this job. Our thanks to the Seabrook IT Department for all of their work on the project, and an especially big thank you to the voters of Seabrook, who authorized this purchase through a warrant article. Our professional firefighters and EMT’s will be able to better serve the residents of Seabrook through this very important procurement.
The Seabrook Memorial Day Remembrance and Parade was held on May 29, 2016. My thanks to the American Legion, to our Recreation Director Katie Duffey, to our Board of Selectmen for their support and participation, and especially to our veterans, who have served and sacrificed to make our way of life possible.
Such a terrific book on a political giant, who played an enormous role in American politics, and whose name and philosophy came to represent a major point of divide in the Republican Party. Author Richard Norton Smith immediately entices you by opening with Rockefeller getting booed off the stage at the 1964 GOP Convention, crystalizing the split in the GOP that continues to exist today. (A shout out to “Before the Storm” by Rick Perlstein, who covers the rise of Goldwater and the conservative takeover of the GOP)
In reading another review of this book I found a criticism that struck me as essentially correct: there is so much to write about that even at 800 plus pages a multi-volume effort would have allowed a more detailed look at some truly fascinating pieces of Rockefeller’s life. As I started I hoped for additional detail on the Rockefeller/Robert Moses relationship, although it is covered. (Of course the Caro masterpiece “The Power Broker” gives plenty of detail)
Smith gives us a good overview of the personality and politics, with the major flaws not hidden, but balanced by much of the good parts of the overall record. He covers the family, Rockefeller’s love and devotion to art, and of course the politics. For those that love the politics this is an area that could have used more, but what is there is just terrific. Rockefeller’s stop and start effort to secure the 1960 GOP nomination showed the personal political flaws that were to remain with him in every one of his efforts to secure the Republican presidential nomination (1960, 1964, 1968). My own view is that 1968 could have been the year where the greatest potential existed for Rockefeller, but he was out-flanked and out thought by Nixon, starting in 1964, when Nixon campaigned tirelessly for the doomed Goldwater candidacy, and Rockefeller refused to do so. Nixon played the long game, and Rockefeller got caught up in the deep Party split that happened to the GOP in 1964. He never recovered his national footing, and his failure to achieve his life goal of being President weighed on him later in life, leading to some introspection and self criticism as he neared the end. The “mutation” that occurred in the GOP came just in time to derail Rockefeller on the national scene.
Looking at Rockefeller’s efforts in 1960 the Goldwater wave of 1964 was just forming.
“The incident was nevertheless revealing of a top-down mentality driving the Rockefeller campaign to pursue Republican kingmakers, many of them barely able to stomach Theodore, much less Franklin, Roosevelt. At the time, his chilly reception was attributed to inferior organization and hardball tactics employed by Len Hall and other Nixon strategists. This overlooked something much larger, a mutation occurring within Republican ranks, as the party’s center of gravity shifted right and the polarizing emotions of the sixties evicted Eisenhower-style moderation.”
And yes, there are similarities between yesterday and today. As that Goldwater wave started to become visible after the election of JFK, Kennedy observed: “….President Kennedy, in a Los Angeles visit coinciding with Rockefeller’s heartbreaking trip to New Guinea, to decry “those on the fringes of our society who have sought to escape their own responsibility by finding a simple solution, an appealing slogan, or a convenient scapegoat.”
As Rockefeller looked to 1964 the wave hit, and the description rendered in this book, once again, shows the similarities to today.
“Nothing better illustrated the Rockefeller campaign’s outmoded approach toward winning Republican minds, let alone hearts. In many a boardroom and country club, 1964 boiled down to an unequal contest between Goldwater passion and Rockefeller prestige. So while Hinman cultivated his peers in the GOP hierarchy, below the radar, in precinct meetings and district conventions, an entirely new Republican electorate swarmed the barricades. It wasn’t the Eastern Establishment alone targeted for elimination by Clif White’s army; it was the Republican Establishment personified by all those lawyers and bankers and oil barons whose loyalty to their class, and to the social and cultural status quo, rendered them ideologically suspect to the emerging conservative movement.”
Despite Rockefeller’s failures at the national level Smith shows what a successful political Governor Rockefeller was in New York. As time wore on Rockefeller had major problems, which were covered, including the debacle at Attica. Rockefeller’s move to the right is chronicled, and the internal contradictions that manifested themselves are shown expertly by the author. The author does not shy away from Rockefeller’s womanizing, giving an unvarnished view of his personal foibles in this area, including coverage of his death.
Rockefeller served as Vice President to Gerald Ford, and that painful chapter is covered in detail, including his great animus towards a pair of Ford staffers named Cheney and Rumsfeld. Rockefeller’s personal political failures as a national politician come through loud and clear, leading his friend President Ford to dump him from the ticket in favor of Bob Dole in 1976. That ignominious end brought the curtain down on Rockefeller’s political career, and left him embittered. Much of the blame for his problems, despite the hostility of Cheney and Rumsfeld, belonged to Rockefeller, who could just not be a second banana.
I highly recommend this book, which is integral to understanding the political period that shaped much of what America is today. Rockefeller may not have succeeded in his ultimate goal, but he can be remembered as one of the giants of his era.
The Seabrook Library will present an author presentation and signing of the book, “Master Thieves: The Boston Gangsters Who Pulled Off the World’s Greatest Art Heist” on Thursday, April 28, 2016, at 6:30 pm at the Seabrook Library, 25 Liberty Lane in Seabrook.
The author, Stephen Kurkjian, is one of the most acclaimed investigative reporters in the country. A forty-year veteran of the Boston Globe, he is the paper’s former Washington bureau chief and a founding member of its investigative Spotlight Team. Kurkjian has won more than twenty-five national and regional awards, including the Pulitzer Prize on three occasions. He is a graduate of Suffolk Law School and lives in Boston.
This program is free and open to the public. Refreshments will be served.
Congratulations to newly sworn in Seabrook Police Deputy Brett Walker and Police Sergeant Kevin Gelineau. My thanks to the Seabrook Board of Selectmen for their strong leadership, and to Police Chief Michael Gallagher.
It has been somewhat fashionable to kick the stuffing out of Emerson, Lake & Palmer these days, but I have to admit that I still count myself as a fan. With the news of the death of Keith Emerson a true keyboard maestro has passed from the scene. I saw them twice, once in Springfield, and once in Hartford, and they really did put on a terrific show. Emerson was indeed the musical driving force behind ELP, and has left behind some really spectacular work. One of my favorites, from Brain Salad Surgery, is below. RIP, Keith Emerson.
Bill Manzi.com 