Manzi v Sullivan Round 14

WZLX radio had Mayor Michael Sullivan and myself on their morning show last week in what they billed as “My town is better than your town”, giving us both a chance to tout our cities and some of the attractions we both have. Mayor Sullivan did a great job, and of course the event was in fun and not competitive. That is why I am not announcing that Methuen won that competition. I have posted the podcast of that event below.

WZLX Battle of the Towns

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A Jobs Killer

The announcement of the pending relocation of the Haverhill Jackson Lumber operation to New Hampshire may be the first tangible sign of the type of impact that the sales tax increase will have on the Merrimack Valley. Jackson Lumber owner Al Torrisi is looking for a smaller parcel, and still has his Headquarters in Lawrence, but there is no question that the sales tax hike is playing a role in his thought process here. We have seen the results of the existing sales tax disparity along the border for years now, with retailing on the Massachusetts side of the border vaporized by Massachusetts tax policy. Today’s Tribune editorial jumped on this, and you can believe that this tax policy will have these types of negative consequences for years to come.

Read the Tribune editorial here.

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The President on the Economy

President Obama talks again about the economy. With the job situation remaining bleak the stimulus package has been subjected to renewed criticism from Republicans, as job losses continue to mount. And the President is no doubt hearing the foot steps on the deficit, which he speaks to as well. As the stimulus winds its way through the economy some observations.

1) The pace of spending is not what was envisioned when the bill was passed. The money is going out too slowly.

2) The job creation portion of the stimulus needed to be a larger portion of the overall bill. And that should have contained greater sums for rebuilding existing infrastructure as well as building new infrastructure, especially in the energy and mass transit areas.

3) There needed to be greater balance in giving cities aid to offset the downturn between the education sector and standard city side operations. The education piece was great, but there was nothing for job retention for police and fire. I know that there is some grant funding still coming down the pipeline, but it should have been in place already.

Those are some thoughts on the stimulus bill as it stands today. What do you think?

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Registry Closings and Politics

The Massachusetts Registry of Motor Vehicles has announced 11 office closings as part of the recently passed budget, which will bring longer wait times across the state for customers. The registry has advocated more customer utilization of its website to perform routine tasks, and that should be encouraged in any case. But it is ludicrous for the State to think that they have a right to force people to wait longer for tasks that cannot be completed online. And additional wait time seems to be in the cards. From the Globe:

The registry currently has 34 branch offices; the 11 offices that are closing serve 1.2 million people, or 24 percent of the agency’s customers.

We will have to wait and see what the result is, but it does not look promising. I am struck by some of the commentary out there that seems to think that making folks wait longer during registry visits or leaving them hung up in traffic for hours at state run toll booths during holiday weekends is a winning strategy for a Governor. I guess the thought is that the Governor can point to failure, but say that if only we had increased your taxes more than we already have these things would not have happened. Hmmmm. I am not sure about the rest of the Commonwealth but that is not likely a winning strategy in the Merrimack Valley. The campaign slogan “The customer is always wrong” is not likely to resonate. A link to Jon Keller’s piece on the Registry closings is below.

http://wbztv.com/video/?id=78780@wbz.dayport.com

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Baker Takes the Plunge

Harvard Pilgrim CEO Charlie Baker announced today that he is a candidate for Governor on the Republican side, creating a stir amongst Republicans hopeful that he can bring the Governor’s job back to the G.O.P. Baker sent an email to his employees at Harvard Pilgrim, excerpted below.

For the past ten years, I have had the privilege of serving as the CEO of this very special organization. And trust me on this one – it’s been an honor to serve with each and every one of you. Harvard Pilgrim, more than any organization I’ve ever worked for, tries to live up to its mission every single day. It really is all about solving problems and getting stuff done. And most of the time, it works – because you make it work. Yes – we went through some pretty tough times “back in the day,” but for the past six or seven years, we’ve made adjustments, re-worked our business model, changed with the times (mostly), and, as a result, have been selected as the #1 Health Plan in America for five years in a row.

That kind of excellence over time is sort of about leadership, management and luck – but it’s mostly about you. You make it happen, and for that, I want to say “thanks.” You made the boss look good(!). But I also want to express my appreciation on behalf of our leadership team, our managers, our customers, our provider partners, our friends in the broker community, our members, and our partners in community service. When you perform, they (and we) all benefit.

Therefore, it’s a bit difficult for me to tell you all that my time here is almost over. I’ll be leaving at the end of next week (July 17th) to put together a statewide campaign for Governor. I know you know I’ve given this issue a lot of thought, and in the end, I love working here. But I also recognize the terrible financial and operational strain that will face state and local government in the years ahead. I know both sectors pretty well – better than most, I would say – and I believe I can bring ideas, energy and leadership to the tasks that face state government in the years ahead.

Charles Baker has served in the administrations of Governors Weld and Cellucci, first as Secretary of Health and Human Services and then as Secretary of Administration and Finance. He is a Harvard graduate with a Masters in Public Administration.

Baker’s entrance now casts some real doubt on the Cahill strategy, as I see Baker as a real and credible threat who will be able to raise more than enough money to be competitive. It is not possible to marginalize Charlie Baker, which gives us a three way race that I believe gives Governor Patrick an edge. Now would be an interesting time to do a statewide survey of that three way race. As you might have surmised I do not give Christy Mihos much of a chance to beat Baker in a Republican primary.

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Dems Line Up to Replace Cahill

Democratic pols from all around the Commonwealth began to line up to run for Treasurer in light of Tim Cahill’s announcement that he was leaving the Democratic Party. Democratic power broker Steve Grossman, who has chaired both the State and national Democratic Party, declared himself in the fight yesterday. Grossman will bring a large rolodex of state and national figures whom he has helped over the years, as well as a huge fundraising network. Others looking to run include State Senator Mark Montigny, State Rep. Tom Conroy, Sheriff Michael Bellotti, the Treasurer of Plymouth County Tom O’Brien, Suzanne Bump, Secretary of Labor to Governor Patrick, and James Rooney, the E.D. of the Massachusetts Convention Authority. I am sure that others will also emerge. The bridges are now burning behind Cahill, leaving no doubt about where he must now go. Add the Treasurer’s race to the Governor’s race, and you have a real exciting political year coming up.

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Lets Get Ready to Rumble- Cahill Switches to Unenrolled

State Treasurer Tim Cahill has let it be known that he will switch his party affiliation to unenrolled from Democratic, setting up an independent bid for the Governor’s Office next year. Cahill has been the regular whipping boy of Democratic blogs, and was embarassed when he could not win a delegate slot at the Democratic National Convention, denied by state party regulars. And yes I understand that Cahill’s political operation let him down on the delegate matter, but that left a bitter taste in Cahill’s mouth. And the incessant pounding from the left has to leave him in serious doubt about his ability to garner 15% at a Democratic Convention. I understand the raw political calculus that goes into the Cahill decision, but lets cut the malarkey about him being “loved” by the Democratic Chair “while he is a Democrat”. He was in part pushed out, despite the “love” that Chairman Walsh professes. A bigger load of putrid smelling stuff is the Chairman’s notion that of course Cahill would have received the fifteen percent necessary for ballot access. From the Globe:

Walsh yesterday called Cahill ” a credible candidate for anything he would run for. As long as he’s a registered Democrat, I love him dearly.”

He said he believes Cahill would have no problem winning enough convention votes to run in a Democratic primary.

So what is the real effect of the Cahill gambit? His move now has to be seen as attempting to impact Charlie Baker’s decision on whether to run, which is supposedly due soon. My own thought is that with Cahill and Baker both in the race Governor Patrick has a clear path to victory. It is when the Republicans nominate a marginal candidate other than Baker that the Governor ought to start sweating. And if that happens then Cahill will have the potential to merge, for one election cycle, the center right against Patrick, and will have a clearly defined path to victory. Take a look at the Governor’s poll ratings amongst unenrolled voters, and that path for Cahill lights up like an airport runway at night. Cahill can still crash and burn, but there is a way to win. Kicking Cahill around in the most savage personal terms may be good sport, but complaining when he hits back seems like a big whine to me. And if Charlie Baker takes a pass there may be plenty to whine about!

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Federer Rolls Into History

Roger Federer once again engaged in a five set war at Wimbeldon, this time winning a marathon fifth set 16-14 and becoming the man with the most major titles ever, passing Pete Sampras with his fifteenth major. It was a great match that drew even non tennis fans by its sheer ferocity. Federer has a huge heart, and it showed in the second set tie breaker, where Roddick had four set points but could not put Federer down. Federer winning that second set saved the match for him, and the fifty aces he fired by Roddick didn’t hurt either. Andy Roddick played a great match and really showed heart as well. He just did not have the killer instinct that Roger Federer has.

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California Dreamin

The New York Times Sunday magazine had a pretty good story on the upcoming California governors race, looking at all of the candidates as well as Governor Schwarzenegger, and wondering why anyone would really want the job. San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsome got prominent play, as did the dysfunctional system that is California government. And with a $26 billion dollar deficit to close and the State issuing IOUs instead of cash California has reached a new level of governmental dysfunction. It is going to be a great political race, with some truly interesting characters likely to create reams of great copy. And with Arnold still around there is always going to be some great interactions that can make us smile. And he does not fail to amuse in this story. With the two sides locked in a bitter partisan struggle over closing the enormous budget gap Governor Schwarzenegger thought a “gift” to the Democratic leader of the State Senate might help move things along.

Even in the most desperate circumstances, when you might expect the two sides to make common cause, their attempts at working together are comical, or sad. In the middle of June, Schwarzenegger sent a melon-size sculpture of bull testicles to the leader of the Democratic-controlled senate, Darrell Steinberg, to encourage lawmakers to find the requisite fortitude to close the budget deficit. Not amused, Steinberg returned the “gift” to the governor.

Great stuff from the Governator. A race to watch, and a pretty good read from the Times!

Read the Sunday Magazine story here.

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Happy 4th From President Obama

The President spends his weekly address wishing the nation a happy 4th and talking about the need for change. Is the status quo acceptable? Happy 4th of July!

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