Governor Patrick, sixteen months away from his re-election bid, faced a new set of poor poll numbers today with the release of a new Boston Globe survey.
The survey, taken 16 months before the election, shows that the public has lost faith in Patrick’s ability to handle the state’s fiscal problems or bring reform to Beacon Hill, as he had promised. He is either losing or running neck-and-neck in matchups with prospective rivals, according to the poll, conducted for the Globe by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center.
A couple of numbers jumped right out at me, including the Governor’s favorability, which stands at 36%, while 52% view him unfavorably. Job approval shows 35% approval for the Governor, while 56% disapprove of the job he is doing. Those are dangerous numbers that do not bode well for his re-election prospects. But for me the most significant number for the Governor is his low standing amongst political independents. He has plummeted with this demographic, and that may be the most important number to come out of this survey.
Patrick’s formerly strong appeal to independents – the state’s largest voting bloc – has dropped sharply, with only 17 percent viewing him favorably. Nearly two-thirds say they have an unfavorable opinion.
Seven months ago, a Globe poll showed that 52 percent of independents viewed the governor favorably.
That low standing among independents may be overcome by the Governor in a three way race, but in a head to head matchup it could be fatal. And the potential three way matchup between Governor Patrick, Treasurer Tim Cahill, and Republican Charlie Baker seems to show that. That three way race shows Patrick and Cahill both at 30%, with Charlie Baker at 20%, with undecided at 15% and others at 4%. In a head to head with Charlie Baker Patrick loses 41% to 35%, despite the fact that Baker shows a 63% “do not know” response on favorability.
It is clear to me that the guess made here upon the party switch of Tim Cahill has been largely borne out by these numbers. I speculated that Cahill and Baker in the race together provides the Governor, despite his poor numbers, a path to victory. The Globe thinks so as well.
Patrick’s best hope at this point appears to be that Cahill and Baker both run. The governor’s core constituency remains highly educated, liberal Democrats and voters in Western Massachusetts, which could help form a big enough base if Baker and Cahill split many conservative Democrats, independents, and Republicans. Baker has the potential to cut into Cahill’s support among independents the more he introduces himself to voters.
Patrick’s weakness amongst independents is so much less damaging to him in that three way race, with Cahill and Baker splitting that demographic and potentially allowing him to ride that progressive bloc to victory.
Both Baker and Cahill are pretty smart guys who know how to read numbers. Are there any conversations occurring between Baker and Cahill on this race?? And the last thing I will comment on is the Cahill poll numbers. He registers at 42% favorable, and only 17% unfavorable. He has a pretty large bloc at 32% that do not know him, but his numbers are in stark contrast to the numbers of Governor Patrick. He is a major player in this race, and the decision he reaches on his candidacy will determine so much about this upcoming election. Read the Globe story here.
