There has been a flurry of polling activity in the U.S. Senate race, with most showing a movement to Elizabeth Warren, but all showing a still tight race. My polling house preference is Suffolk, and David Paleologos. So as I mentioned in a debate posting below the all important independent voter will ultimately determine who wins this race. What does Paleologos find? Independents favor Scott Brown in this survey by a 55% to 34% margin. Simply put that margin is not enough for Brown, who must widen it to get to the type of margins he racked up over Martha Coakley within that subset.
Another factor, which many Democrats hoped Elizabeth Warren would accentuate during the debate, is the drop in crossover support for Scott Brown. Suffolk has found that Brown took a 5 point drop from Barack Obama voters, from 24% down to 19%. Elizabeth Warren moved to further separate Brown from these voters during the debate, highlighting the impacts of Brown’s support for the Republican leadership, and specifically highlighting the potential for Senator James Inhofe to become the chair of the environmental oversight committee in the U.S. Senate. Scott Brown will have an uphill fight, and you can expect more in the way of Elizabeth Warren linking Scott Brown to Mitt Romney and the Republican Party in future debates. She is hoping that the next Suffolk poll shows further erosion in “crossover” support for Scott Brown.