Quinnipiac this week released some polling numbers from three key swing states (FLA, Ohio, and PA). The polling pitted the President against Mitt Romney (as well as the other leading Republicans) in each state. The polling shows that reports of the President’s political demise are very much premature. It also seems to show that Mitt Romney, at this stage, is the strongest Republican candidate.
In Ohio the President leads Mitt Romney by a 45% to 42%, which is within the margin of error. In that state the President leads all other Republican contenders by larger margins, beating Herman Cain by ten points, and beating Perry and Gingrich by 12 points. A couple of interesting tidbits in the Ohio numbers. As always the first number I gaze towards is how the Obama-Romney race breaks with independents. Romney leads within that group by a 43% to 35% margin. The President appears to have stopped his hemorrhaging among independents, which is good news for his potential re-elect. Obviously he has more work to do, but that number, despite the Romney lead, portends well for the President.
The second Ohio number that should draw some interest is the female demographic. The President leads Romney by a whopping 51% to 36% with women. And while the President trails with men by 11% the wide lead with women has to be considered to be a real problem for Romney. And it only gets worse for the other Republicans, with Cain trailing with female voters by an astounding 25% when head to head with Obama. Obama actually leads Cain with independents by two points in Ohio.
In Florida Romney leads the President by a 45% to 42% margin. As we look at those crosstabs we see that with independents Romney leads 41% to 40%. Again that is good news for the President. With Hispanic voters the President only leads Romney by 8%, at 43% to 35%. That has to be considered to be good news for Romney. And the race breaks out evenly with women, with Obama leading by a 43% to 42% margin. That also a lot better than the Ohio number for Romney. When you look at the other Republicans stacked up against Obama you can see why Romney would be the strongest Republican. In FLA Obama leads Cain overall by a 45% to 41% margin, but he actually leads Cain by 9% with independents, by 12% with women, and by 18% with Hispanics. Pretty clear who is the strongest Republican today.
In PA Obama leads Romney by a 44% to 43% margin. The race with independents is a dead heat, with Romney 41% to Obama 40%. Obama’s lead with women is 9%. But put Obama in against Herman Cain and this key swing state goes for Obama by a 48% to 38% margin. Obama swamps Cain with independents by 16%, and maintains the same margin with women, leading Cain by 16%. Among black voters Obama leads Cain by a 96% to 1% margin. That is not a misprint. So much for the purported slippage in support for Obama with blacks. The numbers in Ohio and FLA show Obama gaining 90% or better of the black vote as well.
A great job by Quinnipiac to look at these key swing states. And after looking at the numbers it has to be obvious that if the Republicans nominate anyone but Romney they are greatly increasing the President’s chances at a successful re-elect. Herman Cain as the Republican nominee would likely lead to one of the greatest electoral routs in modern history. Look for additional “investment” by Democrats to help throw Romney off stride. The President is looking a lot better than he did a couple of months ago. Read the survey results here.