Quinnipiac Swing State Numbers

Quinnipiac this week released some polling numbers from three key swing states (FLA, Ohio, and PA). The polling pitted the President against Mitt Romney (as well as the other leading Republicans) in each state. The polling shows that reports of the President’s political demise are very much premature. It also seems to show that Mitt Romney, at this stage, is the strongest Republican candidate.

In Ohio the President leads Mitt Romney by a 45% to 42%, which is within the margin of error. In that state the President leads all other Republican contenders by larger margins, beating Herman Cain by ten points, and beating Perry and Gingrich by 12 points. A couple of interesting tidbits in the Ohio numbers. As always the first number I gaze towards is how the Obama-Romney race breaks with independents. Romney leads within that group by a 43% to 35% margin. The President appears to have stopped his hemorrhaging among independents, which is good news for his potential re-elect. Obviously he has more work to do, but that number, despite the Romney lead, portends well for the President.

The second Ohio number that should draw some interest is the female demographic. The President leads Romney by a whopping 51% to 36% with women. And while the President trails with men by 11% the wide lead with women has to be considered to be a real problem for Romney. And it only gets worse for the other Republicans, with Cain trailing with female voters by an astounding 25% when head to head with Obama. Obama actually leads Cain with independents by two points in Ohio.

In Florida Romney leads the President by a 45% to 42% margin. As we look at those crosstabs we see that with independents Romney leads 41% to 40%. Again that is good news for the President. With Hispanic voters the President only leads Romney by 8%, at 43% to 35%. That has to be considered to be good news for Romney. And the race breaks out evenly with women, with Obama leading by a 43% to 42% margin. That also a lot better than the Ohio number for Romney. When you look at the other Republicans stacked up against Obama you can see why Romney would be the strongest Republican. In FLA Obama leads Cain overall by a 45% to 41% margin, but he actually leads Cain by 9% with independents, by 12% with women, and by 18% with Hispanics. Pretty clear who is the strongest Republican today.

In PA Obama leads Romney by a 44% to 43% margin. The race with independents is a dead heat, with Romney 41% to Obama 40%. Obama’s lead with women is 9%. But put Obama in against Herman Cain and this key swing state goes for Obama by a 48% to 38% margin. Obama swamps Cain with independents by 16%, and maintains the same margin with women, leading Cain by 16%. Among black voters Obama leads Cain by a 96% to 1% margin. That is not a misprint. So much for the purported slippage in support for Obama with blacks. The numbers in Ohio and FLA show Obama gaining 90% or better of the black vote as well.

A great job by Quinnipiac to look at these key swing states. And after looking at the numbers it has to be obvious that if the Republicans nominate anyone but Romney they are greatly increasing the President’s chances at a successful re-elect. Herman Cain as the Republican nominee would likely lead to one of the greatest electoral routs in modern history. Look for additional “investment” by Democrats to help throw Romney off stride. The President is looking a lot better than he did a couple of months ago. Read the survey results here.

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6 Responses to Quinnipiac Swing State Numbers

  1. Jules Gordon says:

    Your Honor,

    The election is a year away. Of course that means Obama has been campaigning for 3+ years. A lot can happen between now and then. I wonder when he plans to do his job?

    I would not count out Cain yet. The DNC plot may have trouble as it seem these ladies are proving to be Democratic plants or shills. All are members of Obama’s fifth column. One actually works for him. Also I believe Cain took a lie detector test.

    The media is on a full court “Obama can do no wrong” press.

    So far Cains support still has wind.

    Stay Tuned.



  2. Bill Manzi says:


    I totally agree that today’s numbers can and will change. There is a way to go. But I am intrigued that some Republicans wish to repudiate Romney, who as of today, is the strongest candidate by far. Peggy Noonan’s latest column at the Wall Street Journal fairly well captures the problems facing Republicans, as they turn further inwards.



  3. Jules Gordon says:

    Your Honor,

    Romney is a true RINO, as you know. But, if he is the nominee, I will vote for him. Nothing in the world can get me to vote for our Taxer-in-Chief.

    As an example of the DNC Cain plot unraveling see the following.



  4. Jules Gordon says:

    Your Honor,

    Can you confirm or refute this article?




  5. Bill Manzi says:


    I read it at link. Was not familiar with it. But a couple of quick comments.

    1) The purchase itself was called into question due to the “eradication” of smallpox. But the article hints at possible weaponizing of smallpox held by potential enemies. Whether we should be buying the item is probably best left to our intelligence community.

    2) As to WHERE we should buy it if it is in fact necessary the story, on the surface, is difficult to defend. Two items to look at here.
    a)Why a sole source procurement? I assume the answer to that is that this company was the only one that could manufacture to the spec put out by the military. But if there was any potential to have this bid through multiple vendors then the taxpayers got hosed.
    b) The profit margin involved is very excessive. And the fact that a big donor controls the Company makes that factoid even worse.

    Bottom line is that crony capitalism is a huge problem, with donors and the politically connected doing very well by both parties. We saw plenty of sole source procurement policy with Halliburton in Iraq. Both parties are guilty of some really terrible practices. If this is one of those cases then touche, and point taken.



  6. Jules Gordon says:

    Your Honor,

    For all parties it further hardens the political atmosphere which sees our vote cancelled by the influence of lobbyists.

    The politicians financial constituency far surpasses politicians voting constituency (us).

    It appears to me the voter’s don’t care or are ignorant of the effect of the influence of lobbyists at election time since the incumbents are sent back time and again.

    I see no solution.



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