Governors Race Stays Tight

Governor Deval Patrick stayed on top of the latest survey in the Massachusetts Governor’s race, leading his opponents narrowly. Governor Patrick has consistently been ahead of both Tim Cahill and Charlie Baker, and the latest survey, by Western New England College, has him still leading, with Tim Cahill placing second and Charlie Baker third. Patrick came in with 34%, to Cahill’s 29% and Baker’s 27%. The survey was conducted before the Republican convention that nominated Baker. The numbers seem to reflect consistency between the different polling outfits, with Cahill and Baker continually trading second place in the different surveys. You can expect a press blast from Cahill touting himself as the real alternative to Governor Patrick at any moment. The survey has some numbers that really jump out at me, and that truly spell trouble for Charlie Baker unless reversed. The first number is Cahill’s percentage among Republican voters, which is 32%. That number is real bad news for Baker, and he must whittle that down significantly if he is to win this race. Cahill’s strategy of appealing to Republican voters and Tea Party activists appears to have had some success. And his showing up at the Republican Convention this weekend was a real irritant to Baker, who is now accusing Cahill of ochestrating attempts to get Christy Mihos on the Republican ballot.

The second number that jumped out at me is the “independent” number in the survey. Cahill leads in this category, pulling 35%, to Baker’s 29%, and Patrick’s 26%. A big spread amongst independent voters was a key to the Scott Brown victory, but with Cahill leading amongst independents Baker will be hard pressed to achieve any distance between himself and Deval Patrick in this key category. Tough for a Republican to win in this State without being able to run up some big margins amongst independents.

There is a long way to go but I think the survey is good news for Patrick, impressive for Cahill, and not so good for Baker. What do you think? I have attached the Western New England College survey below.

polling_-_mass_governor_april_2010_tables

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