The President on You Tube

You Tube got the first post State of the Union address interview with President Obama. Here is the President answering those questions.

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Governor Patrick Press Conference

The Governor’s Press Conference on the budget. More on the budget in the days to come.

http://www.statehousenews.com/video/11-01-26gov/player-viral.swf

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The Governor's Budget Presentation

The Governor unveiled his budget yesterday, looking to balance the books in the most difficult of times. The Governor’s budget is the starting point in the process, with the House and Senate both getting ready to produce their own versions. Traditionally that has meant major changes to the submissions of the Governor, and this year is likely to be more of the same.

The Governor’s budget cuts local aid by 7%, bringing total local aid cuts since 2008 to $481 million, or 37%. The Governor has proposed offsetting that cut to unrestricted local aid by giving municipal health care reform to municipalities, which he believes will save over $100 million statewide. Let us take a look at some of the key numbers underlying the budget.

1) Another supplemental, this one worth $400 million from some additional federal education money, will drive spending this year over $31 billion, up $1.7 billion over the budgeted amount of $29.4 billion.

2) His proposed budget is $30.5 billion, over the budgeted amount from last year, but $500 million below actual spending in this fiscal cycle.

3) The Governor’s proposal assumes revenue increases of over $600 million dollars, and draws $200 million from the state’s reserve account.

4) Municipal aid to education would increase under the Governor’s proposal, but the Massachusetts Taxpayers Foundation estimates a statewide cut of over $80 million when the loss of federal funds are factored in.

5) Health Care. The State budget has been staggered by health care costs, with over 40% of the budget going to cover health care. The Governor’s budget, in spite of recent history, proposes to hold total health care spending at this years levels. The Governor is unveiling aggressive health care cost containment measures, but with at least a 5% increase in enrollment in state health care programs the Governor appears to be banking on a savings of at least $1 billion here. From Michael Widmer:

“The number one question, far and away in this budget in terms of whether it holds together or not is essentially holding Medicaid spending flat while having a 5 percent growth in enrollment,” Widmer said. “It would be an historic achievement if the administration could pull that off.”

That is a big roll of the budgetary dice, and will be scrutinized closely by the Legislature. There will likely be adjustments made in this assumption, which could result in additional cuts to the budget, including local aid. Widmer is being diplomatic. It does not appear that he believes that the Governor’s assumptions on health care are correct. This story is just beginning.

http://www.statehousenews.com/video/11-01-26gonz/player-viral.swf

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Michael Widmer on Mayor's Corner

Michael Widmer of the Massachusetts Taxpayers Foundation was the guest on the Mayor’s Corner last week. He was a great guest, speaking about pension reform, municipal health care reform, and the upcoming state budget. For my money the preeminent authority on the state budget.

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The President's State of the Union Speech (Enhanced)

The President gave the State of the Union last night, laying out his policy goals (targeted spending, increased exporting, a five year freeze on federal discretionary spending, a defense of the health care reform bill, amongst other things), using the speech to frame the coming battle with Republicans over priorities for the next two years. The Republican response, delivered by Rep. Paul Ryan, seemed to me to suffer from the same lack of specifics that have plagued the Republicans for the last year. They will eventually have to produce a Continuing Budget Resolution for this year, since the current one expires in March. That will, along with the vote to raise the federal debt ceiling, will bring the flash point between the President and Republicans and could lead to the government shutdown I believe is coming.

The President threw out plenty for the Republicans to like, including an offer of tort reform in health care and reductions in the corporate tax rate. But the battle will be joined, even with the President moving towards the center. The Republican hard right is about to overplay, and with that overplay the President will be poised to recapture the center (and that big bloc of independent voters).

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Republicans Begin Doublespeak on Budget Cuts

The House Republican majority has already begun to send mixed signals on just what it is they they would like to see cut, with the Republican leadership and the Republican House Study Committee appearing to differ greatly on what should be cut in this fiscal cycle. The Study Group has pushed for budget cuts in this fiscal year that would be roughly double that of the recommended levels of the Republican leadership. And as the attached clip of Eric Cantor on Meet the Press clearly shows the Republicans, at this point, are just not ready for prime time on balancing the federal budget. Two things that I took out of the clip.

1) When pressed for specific cuts the best Cantor could point to was an abolition of public financing of Presidential elections, a $500 million dollar savings. Yes $500 million seems like a lot, but is is a joke when talking about addressing fiscal imbalances. The Republicans apparently forget that the campaign is now over and that they actually have to make governing decisions as the majority.

2) Cantor, when pressed about the real meat in the federal budget, (Social security and Medicare) took a pass. He cited book passages from his new work with Paul Ryan, but as in the campaign he just refused to talk about the reality of the medicine that would be needed to bring the budget in balance. A book passage? Funny stuff. He did cite the Ryan Roadmap, but failed to note that that Roadmap has scant Republican support in the House.

He and the Republican leadership have also started gaming the numbers already, saying that the $100 billion dollar cut in spending in this fiscal cycle they promised was actually a $100 billion dollar cut over two years. Good luck to Cantor and Boehner in dealing with their caucus, many of whom believe that you can reduce the deficit without cutting entitlements and defense. The Republican Study Group proposal should be an interesting starting point for the Republican caucus. Cantor said Defense was on the table, but the Republican Study group seems to disagree with their leader. The debt limit vote should be the political flash point, with all signs appearing to point to great difficulty in getting that through the House. Can’t wait to see the specifics. But it looks like we will all have to continue to wait.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/32545640

Visit msnbc.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy

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Rebecca Armstrong Wins SOAR Award

Congratulations to Rebecca Armstrong, recognized at the January School Committee meeting with the SOAR Award.

SOAR AWARD

Department: Career and Technical Education

Student Name: Rebecca Armstrong

Parents: Robert and Alice Armstrong

Address: 4 Dracut Street, Methuen, MA 01844

School Activities:
• Varsity Field Hockey, Team Captain
• Merrimack Valley All Conference Field Hockey
• Varsity Softball, Team Captain
• Merrimack Valley All Conference Softball
• Eagle Tribune All Star
• Key Club Member
• Senior Citizen Olympics Volunteer
• Dream Factory Member

Community Involvement:
• Relay for Life, Team Captain
• Santa Parade Volunteer
• Hike for Hope Volunteer

Work Experience:
• Softball Umpire
• Independent Childcare Provider

The Career and Technical Education Department is proud to present Methuen High School senior, Rebecca Armstrong, as this month’s SOAR Award recipient. Rebecca has participated in most of the courses the CTE department offers including Exploring the Business World, Desktop Publishing, Microsoft Office, Marketing, and Personal Finance. Her dedication and hard work has allowed her to maintain an A average in all of these courses. Her noteworthy academic performance has also led Nicole to take Advanced Placement English Literature in her senior year. As an athlete, a scholar, and a team leader, Nicole has earned the respect of both students and staff alike. In addition to all of this, she works as an umpire for various softball leagues and as an independent childcare provider. With a definite plan to study business, Nicole’s top college choices are Bentley College, Merrimack College and Assumption College.
Rebecca Armstrong Wins January SOAR Award

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President Obama on Jobs

President Obama gives his State of the Union speech on Tuesday night, and this weeks message will likely be a small preview of what is to come. The President talks about competing economically with the rest of the world, and creating jobs through increased exporting, referencing the recent visit of China’s President Hu and trade deals with China and India. The President, according to the New York Times, will be looking to continue to appeal to the center of the political divide by emphasizing cooperation with Republicans and deficit reduction. But he will also emphasize needed investment in education, infrastructure, and technology. (Sounds a bit like some of the priorities outlined by Governor Patrick in advance of his budget submission.) The President has been on a political upswing, with an uptick in favorability, especially amongst independents.

The President is finding his political balance and showing that those who were counting him out were counting too soon. It will be an important speech for President Obama Tuesday, and I see him retaking the political center from the Republicans, who are just beginning to struggle with their promised budget cuts in the House. Looks to me like the Republican House takeover will be the best thing that could have happened to the President. Lets just see how folks will react to the Republican study group proposal on the budget. Lets just see how the Republican leadership will react to the Republican Study Group budget proposal. The Republicans are about to be exposed in the House on budget issues, as they can no longer hide behind campaign platitudes. That exposure will push the President towards re-election in 2012.

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Michelle Rhee Was Right

An interesting column in today’s Wahington Post by Richard Whitmire, asking the rhetorical question, “Was Michelle Rhee right?” The column centers on the analysis of Rhee’s tenure as Chancellor of schools in Washington D.C. and her insistence on rapidly moving reform forward. Whitmire, correctly I think, posits that the “conventional wisdom” is that Rhee moved too fast, and was not “inclusive” enough in implementing change. So she was right on substance but wrong on implementation. Whitmire calls this view “Michelle Lite.”

Among school superintendents and union leaders, the Michelle Lite theory is popular for different reasons. The key lesson learned in Washington, they agree, is that you can’t fire your way to success. Boosting teacher quality, they say, requires a tempered meshing of improving teacher evaluation and professional development.

Whitmire confesses he was not on board for Rhee’s philosophy originally. But the research he did on her tenure seems to have changed his mind. But more importantly he comes to the conclusion that Michelle Lite is not the answer either.

When Rhee took over in 2007, D.C. schools were tied with Los Angeles for worst-in-the-nation status. Rhee boosted the District off the cellar floor, with significant gains on the federal “report card,” widely considered the gold standard of academic achievement. Those gains came about the hard way, by firing principals and teachers with low expectations, minimal skills as educators or both.

That raises the question: Could Rhee have succeeded with a Michelle Lite approach?

I have concluded, as does Whitmire, that she would not have achieved those results with a Lite approach. Rhee has been heartily criticized for her take no prisoners style. What are the complaints? She did not include parents, she did not do enough to nurture incompetence before she fired people, that she was blunt about her goals, that she rolled over the forces of inertia without the requisite courtesy, blah blah blah. Yes folks were up in arms, but the question I have is this. Was it better to have someone like Rhee and achieve those results, or is it better to feel good but leave the kids in an educational wasteland? Truth be told I think that many adults who were offended by Rhee and Mayor Fenty would rather not have had the results. And that is a shame.

And I think that the question extends to other areas of public life as well. The American political system was designed to slow down government to ensure that majorities were not able to quickly impose dramatic change. That system is now used by the forces of the inert to slow needed change in our system. And the inert become very animated when change occurs and upsets their private domains, upsets their ego because of “lack of consultation”, or cuts out systemic incompetence. If our system is good at anything it is protecting governmental practices that are hugely wasteful, protecting incompetence, and making sure that any real change will take years and years. Rhee was not willing to settle for that, and she and her boss Mayor Fenty were the victims of the revenge of the inert. But the schoolchildren of Washington were the real winners, with the Rhee agenda taking them out of the educational no learn zone that they were occupying. Unfortunately the political business is occupied all too often by folks who do not wish to rock the boat at all. Michelle Rhee capsized the boat for the betterment of the kids in Washington, and she was right to do so.

Sunday Addition: The Michelle Rhee op-ed in the New York Times talking about her hopes for the State of the Union speech.

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Governor Patrick at the MMA

Governor Patrick appeared at the MMA annual meeting today, giving a speech dealing with local aid in his next budget as well as the introduction of a new proposal for municipal health care reform. The Governor told the MMA that he would propose a cut of 7% in unrestricted local aid while proposing an increase in school aid, as well as an increase in road assistance and special education funding.

The Governor’s proposals are consistent with his philosophical view that infrastructure and education funding should be maintained, even in difficult economic times. He has consistently done that, and his recommendations for increases here are truly remarkable in a budget that has a roughly $2 billion dollar shortfall. And while no local official will be happy with a 7% cut in unrestricted local aid the Governor is proposing a grand bargain on health care that would allow locals to withstand the shock of such a cut and preserve services and municipal jobs. The details on that health care proposal are key, as we all know that the devil lies in the details.

The press coverage of the Governor’s speech did not offer details, but Jay Gonzalez, the Secretary of Administration and Finance, offered this in the Globe:

“This proposal is a critical step towards delivering material savings in health care costs to cities and towns at a time when they need it most,” Administration and Finance Secretary Jay Gonzalez said in a statement. “In this challenging fiscal environment, taxpayers can no longer be asked to fund overly generous health benefits at the expense of critical local services.”

The Governor’s proposal seems to mirror that of the Speaker, who unveiled a proposal during his Speaker’s Address last week. If the change does indeed come then the cut in local aid will be sustainable, made up for by lowering municipal costs. Such a strategy has been at the core of the arguments made by Mayors throughout Massachusetts. In Methuen in this fiscal cycle we would have saved $2 million dollars by entering the GIC (The health care plan for state employees). Yes, you read that right. The community is spending an extra $2 million dollars on health care, and that is a conservative estimate. And I can say, without fear of contradiction, that the health care provided by the GIC is both affordable and first rate. For those who argue against such entry the question is this: Why would you impose higher costs on the taxpayers of Methuen? It just does not make any sense fiscally or from a health care perspective. So for today the Governor once again has to be commended, as he again appears to be tackling a difficult problem and taking on special interests for the good of the State and its cities. We will wait to see the proposal in written form, but I am cautiously optimistic.

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